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Morning Bid Europe-Chips are jolted by a shift in momentum for AI
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Chip stocks in Asia fell on Tuesday due to the twin threats of Chinese competition rising and questions over funding and sustainability of AI infrastructure boom. South Korea's KOSPI fell nearly 10%, tripping a circuit breaker. Japan's Nikkei dropped 4.4%. The rally has been so strong that both markets are still the leaders for the year, even though they have now reached multi-month lows. Nvidia fell 5% Monday after a Wall Street Journal article reported that the chipmaker had been in discussions to provide $250 billion worth of financing guarantees for a?OpenAI Data Centre. The report stated that the guarantee would only cover Nvidia inside the center, but that financing OpenAI chips worth up to $35 billion was also being discussed, bringing attention to the circular nature of AI build-out expenditure. Europe's chip leader was also not spared. ASML fell?8.5% following The Information's report that China had begun manufacturing its own immersion deep ultraviolet machines, which are critical to chipmaking and were long dominated exclusively by the Dutch group. Investors are wondering if China's semiconductor sector is moving beyond a catch-up phase to a genuine contender. CXMT soared to the top of China’s stock market on Monday by valuation, causing investors to worry that dominant chip manufacturers may have to share AI spoils more widely. Apple was reported to have asked the U.S. for assurances that CXMT would not be added to a blacklist. The picture of hyperscalers' spending plans will be completed by the earnings at Apple, Meta and Microsoft later this week. Oil prices fell, but that was little help to stocks, or even bonds. They held steady during Tuesday's Asia session, even though crude futures continued their losses. The markets see an approximately 38% chance of a U.S. interest rate increase this week. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Consumer confidence in France and the U.S. Earnings of Mercedes-Benz (editing by Shri Navaratnam), Barclays, Man Group EssilorLuxottica Logitech Rio Tinto Kering Ford Mondelez Visa NXP Seagate Coca-cola UPS Boeing
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Copper prices fall as rate hike expectations weigh on demand
The copper prices fell on Tuesday as 'lingering bets on an interest rate increase in the U.S. threatened to dampen demand. Crude oil prices also declined as investors assessed a pause in U.S. attacks on 'Iran. By 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month metric ton of?copper traded on London Metal Exchange had fallen 0.5% to $13,664 per metric tonne. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.14% to 104,800 Yuan ($15.484.86) per ton. The market is waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday and the effect of a possible lull in the fighting between Iran and the U.S. Analysts from the?Chinese brokerage Galaxy Futures said that despite the lower crude oil price, expectations of more Federal Reserve rate increases have increased. According to CME FedWatch, 62% of market participants believe that the Fed's interest rates will remain unchanged, and 38% expect at least a 25% increase. Copper market fears that higher rates will dampen economic activity and reduce demand. Red metal prices have risen due to expectations of increased demand from AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and electrification. The jittery stock market also affected traders' appetite for risk. On Tuesday, chipmakers were the main culprits in the Asian stock market's decline. They were worried about the financing requirements of the AI boom. Galaxy Futures analysts stated that "the?market is entering a week of heavy earnings reporting, and sentiment remains cautious." Aluminium prices were down 0.35% at the LME and stable on theSHFE. Disrupted Middle East supply has caused a massive drop in stocks, as well as total stock levels at LME-registered storage warehouses. The lowest level on record since 1998. Nickel?slid 0.16%, and tin fell 1.71%. On the SHFE, nickel dropped 0.77%, tin fell 1.5% and zinc declined 0.5%.
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Gold falls as dollar strength weighs on gold; attention turns to Fed meeting
The dollar strengthened on Tuesday and gold prices fell. Markets were looking for clues about the future of interest rates in the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. Gold spot fell by 0.7% at $4,044.81 an ounce as of 0250 GMT. It had risen as high as 1% Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.8% to $4.045.40. Dollars are nearing a month-high, which makes greenback bullion prices more expensive for those who hold other currencies. Ilya Spivak is the head of global macro for finance content network Tastylive. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to conclude its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. According to CME FedWatch, 62% of market participants believe that the Fed will keep interest rates at their current level. However, 38% expect a rate increase at least 25 basis points. The markets are pricing in a 81% chance of a hike during the September meeting of the central bank. On Monday, President Donald Trump called on the Fed lowering interest rates. He said that the U.S. would have the lowest rate of interest in the world. Trump said that on Monday, the United States was having "good discussions" with Iran. He also stated that there is a possibility of a 'deal' to resolve their conflict. However, he warned that strikes will resume if the negotiations fail. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq reported drone attacks on Sunday, indicating that Tehran had quickly tested the pause of the U.S. campaign. Spivak said that gold will likely rise above $4,200 an ounce if the Fed meeting does not produce language that is "setting the foundation for a rate hike in September". Silver spot fell by 1.9%, to $57.30 an ounce. Platinum lost 1%, to $1605.14, and palladium dropped 1.6%, to $1271.09. (Reporting and editing by Varun H. K. and Ronojoya Mazumdar in Bengaluru)
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Australia builds first oil refinery at home in 60 years, to improve fuel security
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Tuesday that Australia will be considering building its first?oil? refinery in over 60 years. The war in the Middle East has squeezed supplies from abroad and highlighted the urgency of improving energy security. Albanese stated that the project would help to build Australia's sovereignty and resilience in the fuel sector, which could shield the country against future supply shocks. Albanese stated that if the project is deemed?feasible', Perdaman, a chemical industrial producer in Western Australia will build a new large-scale refinery. Albanese, a reporter in Western Australia's Pilbara Region, told reporters that "the war?in?the Middle East... has an impact here just like it does all over the world." Building national resilience makes Australia less susceptible to events happening around the globe. Albanese announced that his government, along with the Western Australia State Government, will spend A$4,000,000 ($2.8 million) jointly on a feasibility study for the refinery. Albanese continued, "We want the project to be a success and that's why we are looking for the best location. Australia imports about 80% its fuel and is racing to secure supplies in the face of the Iran War. A report by the Australian Treasury warned that global oil markets have become more vulnerable, with "weaker buffers against supply-shocks". The treasury told Treasurer Jim Chalmers that global oil inventories?have decreased since the conflict in the Middle East has intensified. Meanwhile, refined fuel markets now face a?risk of further tightening?, it said. The majority of Australia's oil refineries were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s. However, high operating costs as well as the rise of large refineries across Asia have forced many of them to close over the last three decades. Ampol's Queensland Refinery and Viva Energy's facility in Victoria, both in the east of the country, are now the only two active refineries. In 2000 there were eight. Western Australia's lone refinery will be shut down by 2021, after BP converted its 146,000 barrels a day Kwinana facility into a fuel terminal. ($1 = 1.4306 Australian dollars)
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Asia markets sell off in a broad scale due to AI fears
Asian markets dropped on Tuesday, led by chipmakers, on concerns?about massive funding requirements of the AI boom. A slide in oil prices didn't do much to lift bonds, and traders were worried about U.S. interest rate hikes coming this week. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 8 percent to a low of three months, setting off a circuit breaker. Japan's Nikkei fell 4% after a drop of 2.2% for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Nvidia's shares fell 5% overnight, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company was in discussions to provide approximately $250 billion in financial guarantees for OpenAI in connection with a massive data center project. CXMT shares in Shanghai surged 466% on their debut day, highlighting the growing interest of investors and the competitive threat from Chinese competitors. Chris Weston is the head of Pepperstone's research. He said that there was a growing sense of optimism in mainland markets regarding China's ability build a global competitive AI ecosystem. The Information reported that China had?also started manufacturing locally developed immersion deep UV lithography machines. This chipmaking tool was long dominated exclusively by Dutch supplier ASML. ASML's shares fell 8.5% on Monday. South 'Korea SK Hynix shares fell by nearly 11%, while Samsung Electronics shares dropped more than 9%. In Tokyo, Kioxia was down 18% and?Tokyo Electron was down 9.8%. CXMT, the chip-making indexes and CXMT were also lower in early trading. OIL SLIDES US YIELDS DIPLEAD Brent crude futures continued their nearly 9% drop on Monday, dropping to $87.55 per barrel as hostilities between Iran and the U.S. cooled following Washington's sudden suspension of airstrikes on Saturday. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States and Iran were having "good discussions" and that there was a possibility of a deal. The break in fighting has pushed benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year yields down by four basis points, to 4.64%. Shorter-term rates have not moved much. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike by 25 basis points this Wednesday, according to traders. "The U.S. - Iran War, which is driving up the price of crude, remains the main determinant for what will 'happen in the global economy over the next few months and, as a result, what informs the central bank policy forecasts at the margin," said Thierry?Wizman, currency & rates strategist?at Macquarie Group. We expect the Fed to tighten its bias this week. The expectation of a hike?sooner rather than later' kept the dollar at $1.1370, the euro at $1.14 and the Australian Dollar just below 70 cents. The yen was trading at 163.78 per dollar, barely above a four decade low. Markets are on edge about Japan interfering in the currency pairing, especially if the Bank of Japan holds rates this week, and causes another yen drop. Wizman said that if BoJ communication was not hawkish, and USD/JPY continues to rise, traders can expect an official response. This could include verbal interventions, rate checks or direct FX market interventions, possibly on Friday. (Reporting and Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Whitehaven Coal's output in 2026 is at the top of its guidance range, but costs are at the low end.
Whitehaven Coal, Australia's largest coal producer, said Tuesday that its annual sales and output were near the top end of their guidance range due to the recovery of its Queensland mines. However, the company expects its costs for the full year to be near the lower end of the forecast. As the Sydney-based coal mining company tries to absorb higher diesel costs linked to Middle?East conflict, it is important to consider cost forecast. Whitehaven has said that unit costs are expected to be around A$132 ($92.29), towards the low end of their forecast range. This is after they achieved savings in line with its annualised target between A$60 and A$80 million. The company made A$222 for every ton of thermal coal it sold in the 'fourth quarter,' up from A$189 per ton a year ago, thanks to a stronger Asian demand after the supply of liquefied gas was interrupted. The managed run-of mine production for the year ending June 30 was 40.3 Mt, up 3% on the previous year and close to the upper end of the 37-41 Mt range. The managed coal sales increased 8%, to 32.7 Mt. This was within the estimates of 29.5 to 33 Mt. The Visible Alpha consensus estimate was that fourth-quarter production would rise by 1.3%, to 10.7 mt. Queensland operations including the Blackwater and Daunia Mines, which were purchased from BHP Group for $4.1 billion in early 2024, have recovered from weather disruptions in previous quarters, with production increasing 41% sequentially. New South Wales' mines including Maules Creek Narrabri, and Gunnedah posted a 1.6% increase in quarterly production year-on-year, but output fell by 8% from the previous quarter due to tougher mining conditions. Whitehaven shares were down 1.1% at 0058 GMT, following the declines of the energy subindex and the wider market. $1 = 1.4302 Australian Dollars (reporting and editing by Shilpi Major and Subhranshu S Ahu in Bengaluru).
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Origin Energy in Australia flags the possible exposure of data for about 900,000.
Origin Energy, a company in Australia, said that on Tuesday, data relating to 900,000 customers, both current and former, may have been accessed. The company is contacting the affected individuals. Last week, the country's largest electricity and gas retailer announced that it was investigating an alleged security breach which involved unauthorised access to some customer information. Origin stated on July 23 that the affected data could include financial information, such as last few digits of a customer’s credit card number or bank account number. As of 0121 GMT, shares of the company were down 1.7% at A$10.47. The broader ASX200 index was 0.3% lower. On its website, the company announced that it had finished its initial review phase and was notifying customers affected. It also offered identity protection and cybersecurity support services. Sydney-based company reviewed a possible security threat in early July but stated that, 'based on the information available at the?time, it was not considered credible. The company said that new information it received on the 22nd of July indicated that a possible security incident could?have taken place, prompting them to inform customers and investors. Origin has engaged cybersecurity and forensic experts, taken steps to secure its systems and is continuing its investigation into the incident. Customers are urged to be vigilant and watch out for scams.
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South Korea's KOSPI falls 7% as the global chipmaker sale deepens
South Korean shares fell 'on Tuesday, as a global sale of chipmakers weighed down on technology heavyweights. Pressured 'by concerns about a 'intensifying competitive environment - from China - and a steep drop in SK Hynix shares listed in the U.S. The benchmark KOSPI fell 500.47 points or 7.41% to 6,253.81, prompting "sidecar" trading restrictions on both the KOSPI index and junior Kosdaq, temporarily suspending programme trading. Memory-chip manufacturer SK Hynix fell 10% after 'its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), which were issued in the United States, dropped to a new record low and below their original U.S. offering prices. Samsung Electronics fell 9.15%, another major index component. The KOSPI weighting is dominated by the two largest chipmakers, who together make up more than half the market. This amplifies the effect of the sell-off across the entire sector. The market sentiment was further dampened due to developments in China. These included a blockbuster debut of ChangXin Memory Technologies, (CXMT), and reports that a Chinese state-backed company began manufacturing immersion DUV equipment. Kim Seokhwan, a Seoul based analyst at Mirae Asset Securities said that the market is more concerned about CXMT's potential to expand its capacity?to Korean rival companies and?technology following?its IPO. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Editing by Sherry Phillips
Sticks, drones and AI - Ukraine war drives military development: Peter Apps
For an unique operation, it looked exceptionally limited-- rarely the progressing future of a brand-new face of warfare.
A brief video posted Wednesday on the Telegram social networks channel of Ukraine's Special Operations Headquarters revealed what seems a Russian Zala 41-16E unmanned aerial vehicle flying high above Ukraine's objected to Kherson region as a. smaller sized Ukrainian UAV repeatedly assaulted it with a connected. wooden stick.
What type of UAV the Ukrainians were utilizing remains. uncertain-- the video footage was recorded directly from a cam on the. drone, which was itself for that reason out of shot. All that was. straight noticeable was the forward-pointing wood pole which the. Ukrainian drone pilot attempted to ram through the Russian UAV. prop, eventually appearing to send both crashing to the. earth.
Against the colossal scale of the dispute in Ukraine,. particularly given that Vladimir Putin's 2022 full-scale intrusion,. that engagement by itself is not of any fantastic significance.
Tens if not numerous thousands of Ukrainian and Russian. drones have actually entered into battle because the war started, with ever more. every month-- a battle which seems as vital as any other. to the result of the war.
Much of the specific drones might look low-tech-- the. Russian Zala 41-16E is based upon a type initially displayed at a. Russian arms fair in 2012, and is reported to have actually gotten in. service three years later.
The larger fight around their use, however, has. become one of the most essential arenas of the Ukraine dispute. -- one in which a war-winning system one week can be rendered. promptly obsolete.
The scale of the modification this has actually dealt with Ukraine's. battlefield is hard to overemphasize.
While drones have been used throughout the war, the volume. and strength of their usage - and the tit-for-tat technological. race to keep them in the air and striking targets while. rendering the enemy drones unusable-- continues to speed up.
U.S. officials have publicly acknowledged holding back some. ultra-secret drones and associated technology from Ukraine to. prevent losing its secrets ahead of a prospective even bigger war--. such as one sparked by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Increasingly, however, the large tempo of fighting within. Ukraine means technology being used there is establishing at a. speed far much faster than in other places on the planet.
Those who enjoyed the dispute say both sides are now taking. technologies from idea to battlefield often within weeks,. extremely various to traditional defense multi-year procurement. timelines.
While Ukrainian troops continue to be pushed back gradually by. numerically superior Russian forces on the ground, long-range. rockets supplied by the U.S., Britain and France continue to. reach deep into Russian territory, destroying much of the. Russian Black Sea fleet and forcing it out of Crimea.
Meanwhile, drones have made it practically impossible to eliminate. either side to amass significant forces for an offensive.
A lot of the drones themselves are developed by small or. medium-sized Ukrainian firms. As it has actually run short of both. soldiers and ammunition, and recognizing that the U.S. and its. European allies would fall well short of promises to offer more. than two million weapons shells by now, Ukraine has actually set itself. the target of making a million drones a year to fill the space.
The innovation behind them, however, is backed up by some. giant and growing tech firms that see the conflict as a testbed. for brand-new technology in general and expert system in. particular.
U.S. AI firm Palantir-- which likewise supplies the. Pentagon-- has actually been active in Ukraine because 2022, while German. counterpart Helsing signed a memorandum of comprehending with. the Kyiv federal government in February.
Another AI company on a promotion blitz this week is Anduril,. called for a sword in Lord of the Rings and established by U.S. tech. entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, 31, a billionaire from his twenties. after establishing the virtual reality headset company Oculus.
Luckey's firm states it has actually also been in Ukraine considering that the. very first period of the war, and is likewise refining AI drones and. submarines for the Pentagon.
CELLPHONE TOWER MICROPHONES DETECT DRONES
Ukraine continues to have a difficult time not just on the. ground-- Russian drones and missiles continue to pound Ukrainian. critical facilities, particularly its electricity grid.
Again, however, this has not avoided in some cases striking. innovation.
Over the previous week, U.S. Flying force General James Hecker, who. commands U.S. and NATO air forces in Europe and Africa, and. Lieutenant General Stephen Gainey, who leads U.S. Army air and. space operations, have both applauded a Ukrainian system that uses. microphones on cellphone towers to identify drones by their sound.
Based on far more primitive Allied systems throughout World War. Two, information from the direction-sensitive microphones can be utilized. to triangulate the place of Russian drones, enabling them to. be engaged by gunfire, jamming or, in theory at least, rammed by. another drone with a stick.
Hecker told an audience at the Royal International Air. Tattoo this week that the system had actually been developed and developed by. two Ukrainian engineers in their garage, and rolled out quickly. and cheaply.
The trick, authorities say, is getting other major Western. nations-- particularly the U.S.-- to establish new systems with the. exact same urgency and effectiveness, instead of taking years or. decades.
A report this week by the U.S. Defense Development Board-- an. main body staffed by ex-top officials - warns that the speed. of technological modification especially in unmanned lorries and. expert system dangers leaving behind the world's. pre-eminent superpower.
It explained the Pentagon procurement system as a plodding. leviathan with a systemic aversion to risk and a lack of urgency. that has led to a culture of sustaining the status quo ... Success in related development is neither determined nor granted,. and failures are always advised.
Some steps forward are bearing fruit-- however they often. include bypassing more sclerotic official systems rather than. reforming them. In 2015, the Pentagon revealed a job known. as Replicator designed to provide very large varieties of drones. rapidly for any future China war.
' HELLSCAPE', DRONE SHIELDS
Authorities state some of those drones - switchblade loitering. munitions - have already been delivered.
According to leaders at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command,. U.S. military leaders wish to use a huge selection of unmanned. weaponry to deny the Taiwan Strait to China in case Beijing. tries to attack Taiwan itself, a task known as HELLSCAPE.
Drones possibly operating autonomously and feeding back. sensing unit info into a large network are likewise at the heart of. emerging multi-million-dollar border security plans from. Poland, the Baltic and Nordic states.
These strategies are explained in some cases as a drone shield and. their intent is to field tens of countless unmanned cars. along the borders of exposed eastern European nations to. counter any Russian attack.
This week at the British army's annual conference in London,. Britain's new army chief General Sir Roland Walker put unmanned. systems at the heart of a reform bundle he stated would make his. force a minimum of twice as lethal by 2027 - the date by which U.S. authorities state China may be prepared to attack Taiwan.
Growing varieties of U.S. and European authorities fear any such. attack would be accompanied at the same time by a war in Europe,. overstretching the U.S. and its European allies.
The danger is now so close, Walker informed the conference, that. much of the military equipment Britain had actually purchased for the. coming years might not have gotten here by the time any conflict. appeared. That would deepen the need to invest quickly in drone. and expert system technology to be ready.
In both Europe and the Pacific, there are plainly hopes this. brand-new type of fighting may help defeat any Russian or Chinese. attack with fairly small numbers of friendly casualties.
The Ukrainian experience, nevertheless, has been anything however. bloodless. Countless videos reveal both Russian and Ukrainian. soldiers pursued in dugouts, structures or open ground by. first-person-view drones being piloted by other soldiers. in some cases just a few miles away.
Offering the drones more ability to pick their own targets--. essentially by doing the computing and target recognition. within the drone with or without instructions from a human operator. -- will not make that dispute any friendlier.
The lesson of Ukraine is that technology can develop at. fantastic speed, however the visceral nature of war stays as vicious. and undesirable as ever.
(source: Reuters)