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European chemical earnings will test the recovery of demand after conflict-driven pricing boost

European chemical earnings will test the recovery of demand after conflict-driven pricing boost
European chemical earnings will test the recovery of demand after conflict-driven pricing boost

Investors are increasingly interested in whether this temporary boost can offset weak demand and the mounting competition of Asian producers.

The Middle East conflict has tightened supply conditions, which have helped to support pricing. This has given breathing space to Europe's chemical sector. However, weak demand, overcapacity globally and increasing competition from Asia are still weighing on the long-term outlook of the industry.

Investors are also interested in whether the companies have reported sustained volume gains or only temporary price increases, as well their outlooks for second half of the calendar year.

Brenntag, BASF, and Evonik are among the chemical companies that have recently increased their profit forecasts for the full year. This suggests that parts of industry are benefiting from higher prices and resilient demand, despite concerns over excess capacity and low volumes.

Lanxess Clariant Wacker Chemie results will be closely examined for signs that recent price support is translating to stronger earnings.

Analysts say investors have shifted their focus in recent weeks away from the margin benefits of shortages in supply to concern over the underlying weakness in demand in Europe's chemicals sector.

MIDDLE-EAST CONFLICT DRIVEN UPLIFT TO FADE

Since years, European chemical companies have been struggling with high energy prices, weak demand, and fierce price competition from Asian competitors. The Middle East conflict provided a short-term boost to the chemicals industry in the region, as disruptions in supply raised prices for Asian competitors and made customers prioritize reliability over price.

The increase in investment and demand has not been enough to compensate for the weakening of the industry.

VCI, the German chemical industry's body, warned that recent improvements in the chemical sector following Middle East disruptions may only be temporary.

The report said that the risks for the second-quarter have increased due to the economic boom caused by the Middle East war. It referred to the stockpiling of customers and the precautionary purchases made after supply concerns.

The association stated that demand could re-soften once supply chains are adjusted and pre-purchasing activity fades. This would expose what the association described as a structural weakness in market.

The report warned that the sector may face new price pressures and lower order volumes.

Before the latest Middle East tensions, European manufacturers warned that Asian competitors would gain ground as energy markets stabilized and regional supply chains adapted.

Analysts and Strategists say that periodic disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and rising energy prices may keep commodity chemical prices high. However, they doubt prices will return to their peaks at the start of the U.S. - Iran war. Sebastian Bray, Berenberg analyst, said that the latest impact was likely to be less than it was before.

He added, "I suspect that some Southeast Asian producers of chemicals have become more proficient at producing feedstocks now."

(source: Reuters)