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IMF: It will take some time before energy and commodity prices normalize following the US-Iran agreement

IMF: It will take some time before energy and commodity prices normalize following the US-Iran agreement
IMF: It will take some time before energy and commodity prices normalize following the US-Iran agreement

International Monetary Fund?said Thursday that it had seen energy and commodities prices drop since?the U.S. and Iran agreement to?halt?hostilities and reopen?the Strait of?Hormuz.?But it will take some time for prices to return to normal and Gulf trade to resume. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a press briefing that the Fund would decide on whether or not to stick with the three growth scenarios that it had presented in April, which were dependent on the outcome of the Iran war. Kozack said that as the Strait of Hormuz was closed in May and benchmark oil prices remained above $100 per barrel the global economy had moved from a more benign "reference scenario," which?assumed an end to the war, to a "disadvantageous scenario" with 2.5% growth globally for 2026. The scenario also assumed that the average oil price for 2026 would be $100 per barrel. It also assumed tighter financial conditions and rising inflation expectations. Kozack stated?on Friday that inflationary expectations are well-anchored as central banks have raised interest rates and financial conditions remain accommodative. Both advanced and emerging markets can access international finance markets. Benchmark Brent crude futures for August deliveries traded at $73 per barrel on Thursday. This was their lowest price since the start of the U.S. supported war against Iran, which began on February 28. Kozack said that prices for urea and other fertilizers, as well as base metals, had also fallen since the return of shipments from Gulf nations, but full normalization will take some time due to shipping lead times. Kozack stated that it will take some time to return to a 'normal state.' This is assuming that the ceasefire continues. She stated that the IMF was most concerned with the conflict's effect on developing countries, particularly those in Africa who are net energy importers and have few fiscal reserves. Kozack responded that India's internal demand was strong and its real GDP growth for fiscal 2026-2027 year is projected to be 6.5%. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Paul Simao and Andrea Shalal)

(source: Reuters)