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Oil prices rise as doubts over a U.S. peace agreement with Iran lift stocks.
Oil prices rose on Thursday due to concerns about a possible deal to ease the grip of Middle Eastern energy supply. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day truce and that the next meeting between Iran and the United States could take place this weekend. Israel is waging an parallel campaign in Lebanon against the militant group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran. In a Thursday post on Truth Social, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that Israeli and Lebanese officials had agreed to?start a 10-day truce at 5 pm EST (2200 GMT). Wall Street saw U.S. stock prices rise, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite achieving intraday records. The S&P 500 Energy index was the best-performing of the 11 major S&P sector indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 80.75 points or 0.16% to?48.542.75, while the S&P 500 rose 869 points or 0.12% to 7,031.57, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 41.33 points or 0.17% to 24,057.35. The war remains the most significant?driver for the market. Robert Phipps is a director of Per Stirling Capital Management, in Austin, Texas. The rubber band was stretched very far to the bottom. The rubber band has snapped and is not longer stretched downward. The market should now trade on its own fundamentals. PepsiCo, the U.S. beverage giant, gained 1.5% as earnings season began to pick up. They beat their quarterly profit expectations. After reporting their results, Travelers, Charles Schwab Financial and Abbott Laboratories all dropped. MSCI's global stock index rose by 2.36 points or 0.22% to 1,063.29, while the pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.05%. OIL MARKETS SKEPTIC Oil prices rose after falling earlier on the hope of a solution to the Middle East conflict. U.S. crude oil settled up by 3.72% at $94.69 per barrel and Brent settled for $99.39 per barrel, an increase of 4.7% in one day. After data showed that initial weekly jobless claims last week were lower than expected, the U.S. Dollar rose and retraced some of its recent declines. The index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and yen, rose by?0.22% at 98.22. The index fell for eight consecutive sessions until Wednesday, losing most of its gains as the war increased the appeal of the greenback as a "safe haven". Investors were weighing whether any ease in tensions between?U.S. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates if tensions between the U.S. The spot price of gold rose 0.01%, to $4,790.57 per ounce, while U.S. futures gold prices advanced by 0.08%, to $4,803.70.
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US: Ten-day Israel/Lebanon ceasefire can be extended by mutual consent
Israel and Lebanon will implement a 10-day truce beginning at 5 pm EST (2100 GMT) Thursday in order to facilitate negotiations towards a permanent "security and peace" agreement. The U.S. State Department said that the ceasefire could be extended mutually. Israel's campaign against Lebanon is a major obstacle in achieving a peace agreement sought by U.S. president Donald Trump in order to end his war with Iran, which he began?with Israel late February. This has disrupted global energy trade and risen oil prices, risking further economic fallout. According to the U.S. State Department, once the ceasefire agreement is signed, the Lebanese Government will 'take steps to prevent Hezbollah, and other non-state groups on its territory, from launching any attacks against Israel. The agreement states that "All parties acknowledge Lebanon's Security Forces as the exclusive responsible for Lebanon's Sovereignty and National Defense; No other country or group can claim to be a guarantor Lebanon's Sovereignty." Israel may take the necessary self-defense measures against imminent or planned attacks during the ceasefire period. However, it has agreed to refrain from any offensive military actions in Lebanon during the 10 days. According to the 'ceasefire agreement,' the two countries asked the United States to facilitate "further direct" negotiations between them in order to resolve any remaining issues. This includes demarcating the international border. The U.S. State Department released a text that stated: "Israel and Lebanon affirm they are not at war, and commit to good-faith negotiations, facilitated through the United States, with the goal of reaching a comprehensive agreement which ensures "lasting security, peace, and stability between the two countries."
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Lescure: G7 finance leaders are ready to act on Iran war fallout.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure announced on Thursday that the Group of Seven finance and central bank chiefs had agreed to be ready to "act" to reduce economic and inflation risk caused by Middle 'East war energy price and supply fluctuations. Lescure told reporters at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's spring meetings that the outcome of the global economy depends on the speed with which the conflict is resolved. The International Energy Agency, with the support of the G7, released last month a record-breaking amount of oil from its strategic reserves in order to counter the cuts of supplies from Gulf nations through the Strait of Hormuz. Lescure, after the G7 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' meetings on Wednesday and Thursday said: "We must ensure that we know where the balance of risks will be in the coming weeks." Lescure added, "We will be meeting again in Paris in one month and we'll make sure we monitor the situation, evaluate the impact, and if necessary, act as we did when we released inventories just a few weeks ago." France is the G7 president this year. The industrialized democracies includes the United States, Canada, Japan and Britain. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, added that the G7 central banks had also committed to taking steps to prevent Iran's war-related energy and commodities shocks from being embedded in core inflation second and third round price impacts. We will act without hesitation if necessary. But we're not in a hurry. We need more data about the impact on the prices of the shocks. Lescure stated that the G7 leaders met for the first time this year in person and also promised to continue aiding Ukraine. This includes helping Ukraine prepare for winter next year after a tough?winter? this year due to constant Russian attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Lescure stated that "Ukraine shouldn't be collateral damage of the war in Iran." "Russia can't benefit from what is happening in Iran." Scott Bessent of the U.S. Treasury Department, who missed Thursday's G7 summit on critical minerals, said on Wednesday that he wouldn't renew a temporary waiver for 30 days on sanctions against Russian oil stranded in the sea. The waiver expired on April 11 and was intended to relieve price pressures through the release of more oil onto global markets. G7 finance leaders discussed creating 'alternative supply chain' for rare earths, and other critical minerals. This would reduce the countries' dependence on China as the dominant supplier. He stated that the group will continue to work on "very tangible steps" which could be presented at a G7 meeting in Evian-les-Bains, a French Alpine spa city in June. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; David Lawder)
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Gold prices hold steady as market attention turns to Iran peace talks
Gold prices were stable on Thursday, after reaching a high of?one-month in the previous session. As of 1:36 pm, spot gold was little changed at $4.785.57 an ounce. ET (1736 GMT). U.S. Gold futures ended the day 0.3% lower, at $4.80830. Investors became concerned about inflation and the market's liquidity. The precious metal fell in March, after U.S. and Israel began a war against Iran in late-February. Gold is a?asset that yields nothing, so it tends to lose its appeal when interest rates rise. Gold has recovered on the back of hopes that the U.S. will?achieve a lasting peace with Iran and end the conflict - bringing down the energy prices and decreasing expectations for higher rates. Peace talks are expected to resume between the two nations after previous talks broke down over the weekend. U.S. president Donald Trump announced in a post on social media that a ceasefire will begin?at 5 pm EST (2100 GMT) to stop a conflict that has erupted between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese terrorist group that is aligned with Iran. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that if we see an easing in tensions between the U.S. and Iran or a war ending, the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates down the road. Current?traders believe that there is a 32% probability of a U.S. rate cut in this year. New applications for the?U.S. Last week, unemployment benefits dropped, indicating that labor market conditions are stable. However, employers remain cautious in hiring, as the war against?Iran is a cloud over the economy. Silver spot fell 1% to $78.29 an ounce on Thursday. Silver is headed for its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit. Since '2021, 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from stock, raising the risk of another 'liquidity squeeze, despite lower demand expectations. Palladium dropped 0.7% and platinum lost 0.6%, to $2,096.20. Ashitha Shivprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Emelia Sithole Matarise, Nia William and David Gaffen edited the article.
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Euronext wheat is mixed due to US weather and technical factors
Euronext's?wheat finished mixed on Thursday, as weather risks for U.S. crops played out against technical trading factors. Technical trading factors and crop performance played a role in the final outcome of Thursday's Euronext wheat. May milling grain settled 0.1% lower at 194.00 Euros ($228.42), after earlier?touching an almost two-month low of 193.50 Euros. September futures finished 0.6% higher at 205.75. The European market was helped by a rally in U.S. Wheat, amid fears that the cold weather forecast would cause further stress to crops already suffering from drought. A futures dealer stated that "the U.S. has been identified as the crop risk in the Northern Hemisphere at this time." The slight easing of the euro against the dollar after it reached a seven-week peak also supported Euronext's prices. Euronext was slowed down by technical factors. Some participants sold May futures following the expiration of Wednesday's options, while new crop contracts failed to close a chart gap that was created last week. Investors were watching developments in the Middle East as well, and the announcement of a truce agreement between Israel & Lebanon came at a time when investor hope grew that U.S. - Iran talks would end their war. One German trader stated that "although any peace deal may initially push prices down, it could also lead to a sharp rise in export demand as buyers were on the sidelines for weeks." In the European Union, purchasing ideas for EU feed wheat of both old and new crop were similar. An Irish Republic buyer wanted to buy 7,000 tons EU feed wheat at about 213-214 euro per ton, cost and freight included. Spanish interest in purchasing a total of 30,000 tons of feed wheat was reported. The price per ton for this new crop is around 212-213 Euros c&f Spain, for shipment August/September. Russian export prices are showing a stable to firm trend among the EU's competitors. The price of Russian 12.5% "protein wheat" was $1 higher this week at around $237 per ton for shipment in April. 11.5% Russian wheat remained unchanged at approximately $234 per ton FOB.
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Judge criticizes Trump's 'brazen bid' to continue construction of the ballroom
Federal Judge Richard Leon ruled again on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump's plan for a White House ballroom to be built without congressional approval is illegal. The judge faulted the Republican president for claiming that national security requirements demanded that the project move forward. U.S. district judge Richard Leon issued a 10-page injunction on March 31, which had ordered the construction to cease. He did this to address Trump's and federal agencies "brazen" interpretation of the earlier decision. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued the Administration, alleging that Trump overstepped his authority by razing the historic White House East Wing in October last year and starting construction on the 90,000 square foot ballroom. This project is estimated to cost more than $400 million and will be funded by corporate donors. Leon clarified the scope of his previous?ruling to stop only "above-ground building of the planned ballroom", but not "below ground construction of national-security facilities." In his original order of March 31, the judge said that much of the construction work had to be stopped, but that crews were allowed to continue "construction necessary for the safety and security at the White House." Trump and federal agencies claimed in court documents that the national security exception granted by the judge applied to the whole project due to elements of the ballroom such as missile-resistant columns, and drone-proof roofs. Trump's administration also argued that the ballroom and a military bunker planned beneath it were a "single coherent whole." In the order of Thursday, Leon stated that Trump and federal agencies are "trying to turn this exception upside down and insisting unreasonably that the ballroom project can proceed." The?judge replied, "I can't possibly agree." Leon was asked by the National Trust for Historic Preservation to clarify his earlier injunction. Last week, after Trump had appealed, the intermediate appeals court also ordered Leon to reconsider its scope in light of Trump's arguments on national security. (Reporting and editing by David Gaffen; Jan Wolfe)
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Codelco and Anglo seek two environmental approvals for a shared Chile copper mine
Documents seen by show that Chilean copper producer Codelco, and global miner Anglo American, plan to submit different environmental studies to the regulators in Chile for their planned "shared copper mine". They will use what they call a "unprecedented", twin-track approval process. Documents previously unknown on the Andina Los Bronces project were presented to environmental authorities in January. They show that the companies intend to submit two applications essentially identical in December for a 'pit' where they will jointly extract copper from the top producer of red metal in the world. This model could be used as a template for other large miners who want to share their infrastructure and operations in order to increase output during an anticipated global supply shortage. It would also allow Codelco and Anglo American move more quickly and reduce risks. Codelco and Anglo completed the deal in September. They plan to add 120,000 metric tonnes of copper each year?from 2030-2051, generating a minimum $5 billion in value before tax. Codelco Chairman Maximo Pacheco and a source from Anglo American confirmed that the companies plan to submit the two applications by the end of this year. "MIRROR" APPLICATIONS The companies propose that in areas where mining operations overlap, they apply the same environmental measures to all miners. One presentation demonstrated that a single filing would not be legal because the Chilean constitution requires Codelco retain ownership of their mining concessions. The companies considered submitting?three requests: one for each miner, to extend the life of their mines and a third application from a joint entity that would manage the shared operation. The decision was made because the companies would have to surrender their open-pit permits in order to allow the mine to be combined. This dual structure will also allow mines to return to independent operation in the future. Work on the Ground The documents detailed plans for creating a single pit on top of the existing pits. Anglo American’s Los Bronces pit and Codelco’s Andina are adjacent. The companies’ plan shows that the rock barrier in between would be mined as well, creating a single pit, while maintaining a project largely within existing mine footprint. One document stated that the ore from the pit shared by both companies would be interchangeably sent to their respective processing plants. The waste rock, meanwhile, would be dumped in the waste dumps of each company. The two mines would still need to make changes?to waste dumping, tailings facility, pipelines, and support infrastructure in order to run as an integrated system. The companies claimed that sharing infrastructure would reduce the pressure on the area and cut down the use of freshwater. Share a Mine: What are the Risks? Companies also highlighted significant risks such as the necessity for "close coordination" with regulators which could strain Chilean environmental review system, already slow. The two reviews emphasized the project's "high visibility" and the risk that environmentalists or affected communities might argue that the two reviews do not accurately reflect the impact. Residents, regulators, and courts have been scrutinizing Los Bronces for years over alleged impacts on water usage, air quality and 'glaciers' in the high Andes, where the mine is located. While both?Codelco & Anglo claim that the dual-track strategy would reduce the risk underestimating environmental impacts, they acknowledge it could lead duplicate or unnecessary environmental measures. One document revealed that the firms will begin outreach to local community and other stakeholders during the second half year. Reporting by Kylie Madry & Fabian Cambero. Daina Beth Sola and Mark Potter edited the report.
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Trump attempts economic reset while Republicans worry about high gas prices
The U.S. president Donald Trump is expected to try and dismiss concerns about the economy and the sagging prospects of the Republican Party this week during a swing-style campaign through the battleground state of Arizona and Nevada, while the war with Iran?pushes up gasoline prices. Trump will use his Thursday stop in Las Vegas to promote his immigration and tax bill, which includes promises for?court hourly? and hospitality workers. The soaring prices of everything from groceries to gas, to housing and insurance have shaken up the U.S. economic system. This has also affected Trump's ability to rally conservatives for November's midterm election. Five Republican strategists said they feared the White House had lost control over the affordability debate. This would neutralize the political boost from the tax law and the resilient economy, which has pushed past Trump's previous military interventions and trade war. David Damore is a professor of political science at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas. He said that "the cost of living will trump everything -- no pun intended-- over any small changes in tax returns." Trump's advisers are more optimistic. They predict that Trump will soon reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated that Trump was always clear about the economic impact the Iran War would have in the short term. The tax benefits he helped to deliver also "reflect the Administration's continued focus on delivering our affordability agenda here at home." Higher fuel prices will lead to a sticky inflation in all consumer goods and services. This presents serious risks to Republicans who are facing an increasingly hostile map of reelection in the House of Representatives as well as Senate. TRICKY MIDTERM MAPS According to Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report, the leading election prognosticator, Democrats are the overwhelming favorites for capturing the majority in the House. Meanwhile, key Senate races are moving in favor of Democrats in North Carolina and Georgia. Trump's approval ratings in late-March/Ipsos surveys fell to 36%. This marks a low in his second term. Nevada and Arizona also have competitive Senate, House and local elections. Trump will 'attend an event in Phoenix hosted by the conservative group Turning Point USA on Friday. The Republican legislators hoped that provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act from last year, which included no tax on tips or overtime pay as part of Trump's $4.1 trillion agenda would resonate with voters looking for economic relief. "I don't think it will happen," said a Republican strategist who consults on congressional races. They spoke anonymously because they were discussing sensitive issues. In recent weeks, the challenge Republicans face has been exacerbated by Trump's focus in Iran and his public disagreement with Pope Leo. Trump announced last week that the White House would be sending senior adviser James Blair to help with midterm campaigning. This is a sign of growing concern over the prospects for his party. WEST COAST SLING Trump will host on Thursday a roundtable focused on his policy of eliminating federal taxes on tipping, a measure aimed at service employees in a city dominated by hospitality jobs. Supporters claim it will increase take-home pay of restaurant, hotel, and casino workers that rely heavily upon gratuities. Trump's tax law for 2025 includes a provision that allows workers who qualify to deduct tip income up to $25,000. However, payroll taxes will still be applied and the benefit is phased out as higher-earners earn more. Analysts estimate that approximately 4 million Americans work in tipped positions, and analysts estimate an average benefit of $1,400 per year for those who are eligible. Karoline Leavitt, White House spokesperson, said that more than 53 million taxpayers claimed at least one tax cut signature by Trump this filing season. She said the average tax refund was over $3,400. Gas prices are still a concern. Trump has sent mixed messages about how long higher fuel prices will last. At times, he suggested that Americans might have to suffer for a prolonged period of time due to global supply disruptions. Other times, he said that the price will drop sharply when the war ends. People familiar with the discussions in and around the White House say that the administration has limited options for lowering energy prices, beyond a complicated diplomatic effort linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Officials released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and adjusted shipping rules. They also eased sanctions against Russian and Iranian 'oil. Prices remain high, with benchmarks globally exceeding $90 per barrel. One of the oil executives involved in the discussions stated, "All that's left are bad options. We have asked White House to not pursue them." Trump has tried to calm expectations by portraying midterm elections losses as a normal occurrence for the party currently in power while insisting that his administration can reverse this trend. He told Fox Business Network’s "Mornings with Maria", a program that aired on Wednesday, "Even if you have a fantastic president, midterm elections tend to be lost." "So, we're trying to turn it around." There's no good reason for the Republicans to lose. (Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and Jacob Bogage; additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Editing by Colleen Jensen, Rod Nickel).
Minister says Brazil will announce new measures to reduce fuel prices impact of the Iran war
Jose Guimaraes, Minister of Institutional Relations, said that Brazil will take new measures in the next few days to reduce the economic impact of the U.S.-Israeli conflict on Iran. This includes steps to lower gasoline prices.
Guimaraes told reporters in Brasilia that the package is still being finalized. He also confirmed that the Finance Ministry officials are reviewing fuel prices.
He said that the government was working on a scenario where there could be 'up to two months worth of conflict. However, it is still uncertain what impact this will have on the economy.
SEVEN-DAY WORKWEEK
Guimaraes said that the Brazilian government was open to a 'transition period' in a bill to reduce the six-day standard workweek. However, it did not see the need for any new tax breaks, to compensate employers.
Guimaraes says that the proposal, which is a major plank in President Luiz Inacio Lula's platform for the October elections will be announced during Workers' Month.
Negotiations in the 'Congress focused on how to reduce the resistance of business groups against the 'plan which would reduce the workweek from 44 to 40 hours. Lawmakers have talked about a gradual transition, or a compensatory tax relief.
Guimaraes stated that a transition was "possible", but he did not think there would be room for tax exempts. Reporting by Lisandra paraguassu, Writing by Isabel Teles, Editing by Alison Williams & Aurora Ellis
(source: Reuters)