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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Equities rally, dollar dips with oil as Trump cancels Iran attacks
MSCI's global equity index rose on?Thursday, while dollar and bond yields dropped, along with oil and futures. This was on renewed hope for peace in the Middle East, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he canceled planned strikes against Iran, and that a peace deal could be signed soon. After threatening to?bomb more targets and stating that he wants to "take" the oil export hub Kharg Island in the past few hours, Trump announced on Thursday that "talks have been brought to Iran's highest level and approved." In a Truth Social post, he also said that the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia had all approved "discussions" and "final points." He said the United States could sign a deal with Iran as early as this weekend. This would allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital energy conduit that has been disrupted by the conflict since late February. According to Iran's IRNA News Agency, Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran had not made a decision yet and would not compromise its "redlines" in negotiations. Oil prices dropped quickly on the energy markets after Trump's announcement, but they ended higher than their session lows. U.S. crude oil settled at $87.71 per barrel down $2.32 or 2.58%. Brent closed at $90.38 a barrel down 2.92% or $2.72. Wall Street's equities continued to rise after Trump announced his decision. They registered their largest one-day percentage increase since April 8, when the U.S. & Iran announced their ceasefire. Investors were eager for more information after the many twists and turn in the peace process. According to the administration, it's just another day that the war is close to ending. This drove the stock market up. Is this just another false lead, or is the market'really nearing an end? Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, a family-owned investment firm. "The war, and its impact on energy inflation in particular, remains the biggest weight on market. Meckler said that if the war were to end, this would be a positive. Data earlier in the day showed that U.S. Producer Prices increased more than anticipated in May. This led to the largest gain for the year in three-and-a half years, as the Middle East Conflict drove up energy costs. The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits last week increased slightly, which indicates that the labor market is still resilient in early June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 929.97, or 1.86 percent, to 50.848.55, the S&P 500 gained 127.31, or 1.75 percent, to 7,394.30, and the Nasdaq Composite grew by 640.16, or 2.54 percent, to 25.809.66. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 12.57 points or 1.16% to 1,099.55. As expected, earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.54%, after the European Central Bank announced its first rate hike in almost three years. On fixed income markets, yields fell on the hope of a 'peace agreement. Molly Brooks is the U.S. Rates Strategist at TD Securities. She said that investors will likely remain cautious until an agreement has been finalized. Oil futures may come down, but oil prices could still be high. Brooks stated that you may still see inflation in the coming months. The yield of the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 8.1 basis point to 4.457% from 4.54% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year bonds fell 7.2 basis points, to 4.9534%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve fell 6.5 basis points to 4.062%. It was 4.127% at Wednesday's close. Dollar lost ground in currency markets as demand for "safe-haven" assets dropped on the back of peace hopes. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.36%, reaching 99.69. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.37%, hitting $1.1579. The dollar fell 0.37% against the Japanese yen to 159.94. Spot gold increased 3.41%, to $4,212.21 per ounce, while spot silver grew 5.51%, to $67.20 per ounce.
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Grain futures fall on US weather and ample supplies, soy, wheat also sag
Analysts said that benchmark Chicago corn futures dropped to contract lows after the U.S. government's monthly crop report "understood ample domestic and international grain supplies" while weather forecasts in the Midwest were "generally favorable". This boosted?production prospects. The weaker trend was followed by soybean and?wheat?futures, though the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of U.S. wheat production for 2026 more than analysts expected in a report on supply/demand. Chicago Board of Trade July Corn settled down 7-1/4 Cents at $4.10-1/2 per bushel, after reaching a contract low of $4.10-1/2. July soybeans? finished down 8 cents to $11.15 per bushel, after falling to $11.08-1/4. This was the lowest price since February 4. CBOT July soft red wheat ended down 3/4 cents at $5.86-3/4 per bushel, but K.C. The July hard red wheat futures closed the day 4-1/4 cents above $6.34-3/4 per bushel. Storms continue to cross the Midwest crop belt causing localized hail and wind damage, as well as beneficial rains. In a client letter, StoneX's chief commodities economist Arlan suderman stated that the weather in the Midwest is currently considered to be favorable for crop development during June. The USDA's report for May contained few surprises, but the government increased its estimate of global corn stocks at the end 2026/27 of the marketing year from 277.54 to 281.22 metric tons. This is higher than a number of trade expectations. USDA has also increased its estimates for corn production in Argentina, Brazil and 2025/26. The CBOT Wheat futures declined but received some support when the USDA reduced its forecast of U.S. wheat production for 2026 to 1.543 billion bushels. The USDA lowered its forecast of U.S.?2026 wheat production to 1.543 billion bushels, down from 1.561 in May. This figure fell below the average analyst estimate. After a severe drought in the Plains, it was predicted that the production of hard red winter grain, the most important variety grown?in America, would fall to just 497 million bushels. This is the lowest level since 1957. The decline in crude oil prices has exacerbated the bearish mood in commodities. Oil prices fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had cancelled plans to attack Iran on Thursday. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz and Daphne Zhang in Beijing and Paris; and additional reporting by Gus Trompiz and Daphne Zhang in Paris)
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The Russian deputy prime minister calls for forecasts of the fuel market to prevent shortages
The 'Russian Government' said late on Thursday that Alexander Novak, Russian Deputy Premier Minister, called for a system of forecasts to protect against fuel distribution problems and meet domestic demand. According to a statement posted on the website of the government, Novak requested the creation a forecasting model following a cabinet meeting that took place late in the evening. The statement stated that "Alexander Novak gave instructions to create a forecast model of the development of the fuel markets on a regional basis, including a'most detailed breakdown of every possible parameter. The system, it was said, would allow bottlenecks to be identified and preventive measures taken. Novak was quoted as saying that "all mechanisms should be set up so they guarantee'stable supply and balanced prices for everyone on the market". Witnesses report that the meeting was held to discuss fuel shortages in Russian controlled Crimea where, on Thursday, petrol stations were reportedly out of stock. According to data collected by, fuel shortages have been reported in a dozen Russian regions by media and social media. Only two regions in Siberia, including the Russian-held Crimea have confirmed official shortages. Ukraine has been targeting Russian refineries, fuel depots, and pipelines for the past?months to try to stop Moscow from funding its four-year war against its neighbour. According to the account of the meeting,?representatives from oil companies stated that they were "running production facilities at maximum capacity to meet domestic demands". Reporting by SonaliPaul; Editing by SonaliPaul
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Canada oil shortages and bad weather will tighten stocks at US storage hub
A power outage and wet weather at a major oil sands manufacturer have contributed to a tightening of crude export supplies?out?of Western Canada. This could affect the supply to U.S. Midwest refining facilities and the Cushing storage facility in Oklahoma. The supply disruptions in Western Canada will add to a tightening global market, as a fifth of global oil and gas shipments have been halted behind the Strait of Hormuz because of the U.S./Israeli war in Iran. U.S.?inventory, including strategic reserves, has fallen by 79 millions barrels since the Iran War began late February. Inventories at Cushing are nearing their operational lows. Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and the biggest foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S. The oil flows into storage tanks at Cushing, as well as Midwest and Gulf Coast refining facilities. Midwest refiners in the U.S., who have no access to waterborne oil, are heavily reliant on Canadian oil. Many of these refineries were designed to process oil sands crude. Recent heavy rains have temporarily slowed down oil sands extraction in northern Alberta. A power outage at Cenovus' Foster Creek and Christina Lake operations last week prompted Cenovus to declare force majeure. According to a research note published by Energy Aspects last week, the power outage took 10% of the oil sands company's production offline. Cenovus didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Since the start of the war in Iran, Canadian crude is also in high demand, particularly from Asian buyers who see Canada as a reliable, safe source of supply. The Trans Mountain pipeline in Canada, which transports Canadian heavy crude oil to the Pacific coast, for export overseas including Asia, is now operating at full capacity, for the first since a major expansion two years ago. Wood Mackenzie's Lee Williams, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said that the Western Canadian crude inventory is now at its lowest level since 2020. Williams said in an email that Western Canadian crude oil inventories have decreased by over 4 million barrels during the past two weeks, and by almost 8?million since February's end. Canadian heavy crude oil prices have increased significantly over the past week and a half. The discount between West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, and Western Canada Select has decreased by about $4 since May's end. Reporting by Amanda Stephenson from Calgary and Arathy Smasekhar from Houston
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Trump: 'Great' Iran settlement to trigger opening of Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Thursday that a "great agreement" to end the war in Iran would be signed within days. Trump told reporters at the Oval Office: "We have just reached a wonderful settlement in our war with Iran." He said: "The strait is going to be officially opened as soon as we have signed, which may happen very soon, perhaps over the weekend, in Europe." Trump claimed he just spoke to Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu and also with the leaders of Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait. He said that he was soon going to'speak with Turkey's Tayyip Erdoan. He said that the deal ended the question of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. "Most important, we have a contract that Iran will never possess a nuclear device. That was the entire purpose of going through all this to get it. It was a big deal, he said. Trump cancelled new strikes against Iran on Thursday morning, stating that the "final points" had been approved of an initial peace agreement and details about a signing ceremony will be announced shortly. The semi-official Iranian?Fars reported that Tehran is likely to approve of the agreement, though it has not yet given a formal reply. The announcement of the cancellation came hours after President Obama announced that the U.S. would be attacking Iran for the third night in a row. Trump has claimed that a deal to end the war with Iran is near since mid-March. Both sides have been exchanging strikes all week, straining the ceasefire that was announced in April. (Reporting and editing by Humeyra Pamuk and Katharine Jackson)
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SpaceX's IPO: The Road to Success
SpaceX's initial public offering in the United States raised $75 billion on Thursday as investors raced to get exposure to Elon Musk’s space?and satellite empire before its highly anticipated Nasdaq début. This is a time line of?SpaceX’s journey towards the blockbuster IPO Elon Musk started SpaceX in March 2002 with money from the sale of PayPal. SpaceX launched its first rocket in March 2006, the Falcon 1. It failed. Falcon 1 is launched successfully in September 2008. It's the first liquid-fuel rocket developed by a private company to reach Earth orbit. SpaceX signs its first major contract in December 2008 with NASA for the transportation of cargo and supplies to International Space Station. May 2012 - The first private spacecraft docked at the ISS is a Dragon capsule launched by a Falcon 9 rocket. Falcon 9 explodes in mid-air on June 15, 2015. December 2015 – First successful vertical touchdown of Falcon 9 marking the first controlled recovery for a large rocket after delivering payload to orbit. In February 2018, the first Falcon Heavy launch carried Musk's Tesla Roadster into space, along with its mannequin, Starman. April 2019 - Crew Dragon test vehicle explodes on the ground during a ground test. May 2019 - SpaceX launches Starlink satellites. This constellation is capable of beaming high-speed Internet service to customers all over the world. October 2020 - SpaceX successfully completes its 100th Falcon rocket flight since Falcon 1 flew into orbit for the first time in 2008. SpaceX Crew-1, the first mission to be launched under NASA's Commercial Crew Program. NASA awards SpaceX a contract in April 2021 for the first commercial human landing on the Moon, as part of the Artemis program. September 2021: SpaceX launches first ever all-civilian crew to orbit the Earth. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test Mission launched on a SpaceX rocket into an interplanetary transfer space in November 2021, marking the first ever test of a planet defense system to prevent a possible asteroid impact with Earth. April 2023 - First Starship rocket explodes after losing control. November 2023: Starship launches fail minutes after reaching the space. November 2023: A U.S. Judge blocks the U.S. Department of Justice's pursuit of an administrative case accusing Elon Musk’s SpaceX of refusing to illegally hire refugees and asylum seekers. September 2024: The SpaceX Polaris Dawn Mission performs its first privately-managed spacewalk. SpaceX's Starship rocket crashes in space just minutes after it launches from Texas. Airlines flying over the Gulf of Mexico are forced to change course to avoid falling debris. Starship explodes in June 2025 during a test on the ground. SpaceX buys Musk's AI company xAI for a record 'deal' of $250 billion. This unifies the 'world's richest person's AI and Space ambitions, by combining his rocket-and satellite company with the maker the Grok chatbot. Musk claims that SpaceX will focus on building an "auto-growing city" in February 2026. NASA official claims that the Starship rocket has been delayed by at least two years since 2021 when NASA selected it as the astronaut moon lander. It is expected to take more time before the remaining hurdles are cleared. SpaceX files confidentially for its U.S. IPO, which could be the largest stock market flotation ever. SpaceX files its long-awaited U.S. IPO in May 2026. SpaceX's IPO price is set at $135 per share in June 2026. The company hopes to raise a record $75 billion. SpaceX and Alphabet's Google agree to a multiyear cloud services agreement in June 2026. June 2026 - SpaceX raises record $75 billion in U.S. IPO. Reporting by Prakhar Shrivastava in Bengaluru and Arasu Kanagi Basil; editing by Sahal Muhammad and Joyjeet Das
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Imperial Oil fined by Alberta court for Kearl spill violation
Imperial Oil Canada was fined C$120,000 (85,849.19 USD) after pleading guilty to violating environmental regulations at its 'Kearl Oil Sands' site. According to the Alberta Energy Regulator, following a hearing on May 29, the Canadian oil producer was ordered to pay C$2,000, which included a victim surcharge. They also had to contribute C$118,000 to a creative'sentencing project. In an email, the company said that it has taken steps to prevent this from happening again, including reprogramming of equipment, updating sediment management processes, and increasing inspections. There is no evidence that the overflow of water has had any adverse effects on local wildlife. We will continue to provide site tours and share monitoring data with the local Indigenous communities. The charge relates to an incident that occurred on February 4, 2023 when wastewater?overflowed a drainage pond at the Kearl Oil Sands Processing Plant & Mine. This was reported to the regulator. The Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act of the province governs this?offense. (1 Canadian dollar = 1.3978 Canadian Dollars) (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo in Bengaluru, Sumit Saha from Bengaluru)
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Venezuela retains Greenberg Traurig for US court case against Crystallex
The firm that previously represented it in the U.S. Court of Appeals said on Thursday, Venezuela has retained the law firm 'Greenberg Traurig' to represent the country in a longstanding legal battle against miner Crystallex. This involves more than a dozen creditors seeking compensation for expropriations. The Attorney General of Venezuela, Arianny eijo, announced this 'week that Daniel Pulecio, and 'Dominic Draye, are now leading Venezuelan's team. In a letter sent to the firm Munger Tolles & Olson which asked the US Court of Appeals for Third Circuit to'remove' them as counsel. Washington recognized the interim government led by Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriquez as the head of state back in March. Munger, Tolles & Olson argued that the decision of the President of the United States to recognize a particular party as the sole 'head of state' of a foreign govt. was a?conclusive one and binding upon the court. Venezuela has changed its legal representation in foreign courts in recent months. This is especially true for "prominent" cases in the U.S. that involve pending payments or compensations. Venezuela is trying to structure a repayment effort. (Reporting and editing by Nathan Crooks; Marianna Pararaga)
Gasoline shortages in the US during summer driving season cause problems
The U.S. is entering the peak driving season of summer just as gasoline prices are rising. A tight supply situation has been created by a combination of a strong domestic demand, and a surge in fuel exports.
The soaring summer demand for American automobiles has not deterred U.S. refiners, who are increasingly focusing on lucrative jet and diesel fuel production in order to fill global shortages due to shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz. This critical passageway is responsible for?nearly one fifth of all global oil flows. It has been effectively closed since the start of the Iran War. Analysts are warning that a shortage is imminent, as U.S. demand for gasoline has been strong despite the fact that pump prices in the U.S. have risen by 40% since war began and hovered above $4. Some analysts worry that U.S. refining plants may not be able run at full capacity due to the recent increase in unplanned outages.
By the end of Memorial Day weekend, the cushion of gasoline that had been built up during the winter months when demand was low in the U.S. evaporated. The peak U.S. summer vacation season typically runs from early September until the end of May.
According to government statistics, the gasoline inventory in the first week of this month fell to its lowest level for a decade, to just 215.1 millions barrels. Since the start of the war, inventories have fallen by over 34 million barrels. In May, distillate fuel oil stocks fell to their lowest level in 23 years. This leaves the supply vulnerable to further shocks.
Analysts warn that the total demand for U.S. produced fuel could reach 9.5 million barrels per day this summer. Fuel makers can currently produce 9.2 million barrels per day. "Balances would be extremely tight because the (refining) margins incentives still support jet-fuel and we all know that Middle Eastern refining companies are not returning quickly," said Sumit Ritolia, Kpler's lead analyst in charge of refining supply.
The negliding child, GASOLINE
The U.S. refiners are less dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil than their Asian and European counterparts. They can maximize the distillate production to achieve strong margins. The EIA reported this week that the average four-week production of jet fuel in the United States surpassed 2,000,000 barrels a day for the very first time.
In May, the U.S. export 54.65 millions barrels of jet fuel and diesel fuel. This is the highest number in Kpler's data dating back to 2017. In May, the U.S. exported 22.52 millions barrels of gasoline, an increase from 20.10million barrels in April.
Tamas Varga is an analyst with PVM Oil Associates. He said, "Gasoline has been left as the stepchild in the refinery schedule." In the past, the U.S. relied on European imports to ease regional gasoline shortages. This option has become logistically more difficult and is less cost-effective. Fuel supplies in Europe are also limited, and freight rates have risen due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Tom Kloza is the chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil. He said that even if exports remain where they are, and do not rise to meet the urgent needs of other countries, it would be possible to reduce gasoline inventories by two or three million barrels per week in summer. Even if refineries run at full capacity, the refined product supply will remain tight.
Analysts wonder if refiners can continue to run their plants at high speeds to maintain these margins. U.S. refiners operated their plants at 95.3% capacity in the first seven days of June, the highest level in almost a year.
Raul Calzada is a refining analyst with Energy Aspects. He said that there are reports of planned maintenance for the fall being postponed or reduced in scope. Calzada said, "If you delay maintenance, you may have to pay later."
According to IIR Energy, cracks are beginning to appear. April saw the most unplanned refinery outages on average in the past five years. This equates to roughly 483,000 barrels of crude oil processing capacity per day being offline. Reporting by Nicole Jao, New York; editing by Liz Hampton and David Gregorio
(source: Reuters)