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IMF chief: 12 or more countries are seeking loans to deal with Middle East war energy shock

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that at least 12 countries will?seek out new loan programs? to deal with the surging 'energy prices? and supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East?war?,? the head of global crisis lender, said on Wednesday.

Kristalina Georgeeva, IMF's Managing Director, warned of further supply disruptions if the Strait of Hormuz is closed even if it ends quickly. She also urged nations to reduce fuel consumption.

At a press briefing during the IMF/World Bank spring meetings, Georgieva reiterated her estimation that the disruptions caused by the war would trigger a new demand for financial support of $20 to $50 billion. This could include new loans and the augmentation of 39 existing country finance programs of the global lender.

She did not mention specific countries who have requested assistance, but she said that the IMF is?not currently examining an augmentation to Egypt's 8 billion loan program in spite of the war's effect on its economy.

Georgieva expressed concern about the breakdown in supply chains, particularly for Asian countries that depend on Gulf oil, natural gases, naphtha and helium, as well as fertilizer, other inputs, and other inputs.

She stated that such disruptions "will not disappear overnight, even if war ends tomorrow. Why? A tanker, which is a "slow-moving vessel", would take forty days to reach Fiji. We need to prepare for the fact that the impact of the supply disruptions will be greater in the coming weeks.

IMF has already stated that the global economic conditions have worsened beyond what was projected in its World Economic Outlook, which was updated on Tuesday. The IMF's forecast of 3.1% growth for 2026 is based on the end of the conflict as well as a drop in oil prices.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is the IMF chief economist. He said that the global economy had "drifted" beyond the forecast and was heading towards a more negative scenario, as outlined in the IMF World Economic Outlook. The IMF predicts that growth will fall to 2.5% by 2026, while oil prices are expected to average around $100 a barrel.

In the worst case, "severe scenarios"?of a longer and deeper conflict, global economic growth drops to 2%, bringing it to the edge of global recession.

Georgieva stated that more shortages are looming and countries should take steps to conserve energy. She also suggested creating incentives to reduce oil intensity in their economies. For example, temporarily freeing public transport.

She reiterated the IMF's warnings that countries should not take untargeted measures such as energy subsidies in order to offset the impact on higher prices.

IMF Fiscal Monitor released on Tuesday urged all countries to avoid subsidies, and instead provide temporary cash transfers that are targeted at the most vulnerable citizens, but do not mask higher fuel prices or stoke up demand.

Rodrigo Valdes, Director of Fiscal Affairs at the IMF, said that broad fuel subsidies could do this and shift supplies away from poorer nations. He told a press conference, "If you try undoing a supply shock by trying?to prop up demand, you'll end up with even more inflation."

The IMF has urged central banks to be vigilant and watch for signs of wage-price spirals, but to not tighten the monetary policy or cool the demand immediately.

Georgieva stated that central banks should not rush to act if they have high credibility. "Wait and see what the conditions are.

She added that central banks with less credibility in controlling inflation might need to take stronger steps, without naming any specific countries. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Shalal, David Lawder)

(source: Reuters)