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Indiana suspends the gas tax for 30 Days amid Rising Prices
Indiana became the second U.S. state to suspend its gasoline tax in response to?the ongoing U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran. Gov. Mike Braun, who is a Republican, announced that the suspension of the 7% usage tax on fuel would last for 30 days, and it could be extended based on the "circumstances in the Middle East." "I declare a gas-tax holiday to relieve Hoosiers from the pain of high gas prices at the pump. Braun declared that affordability was his top priority after he issued a?emergency declaration. Braun used a term for residents of Indiana to describe the situation. He said the state would "patroll the pumps" to ensure that the tax relief was passed directly on to consumers. Braun called for the attorney general to protect consumers from price gouging. On Tuesday, Iran and the U.S. reached an agreement on a ceasefire lasting two weeks that was mediated by Pakistan. However, fighting continued on Wednesday. Braun stated that it would take some time before residents of Indiana felt the effects of the ceasefire. According to the American Automobile Association, Indiana's average gas price is $4.137. AAA reported that the average gas price was $3.466 one month ago. In a?recent?/Ipsos survey, 55% of respondents said that their household finances have been affected at least "somewhat." 21% of those who felt an impact said that their finances had been affected "a lot." Georgia was the first state to suspend its gas tax last month as fuel prices continue their soaring response to the conflict that began on February 28. Trump called the increase in gas prices "a short-term rise."
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Gold reaches a three-week high following US-Iran ceasefire
On 'Wednesday', gold reached a peak of almost three weeks, while the U.S. dollar and oil prices dropped - after Washington -and- Tehran agreed on a two week truce, which eased inflation fears. As of 2:05 pm EDT (1805 GMT), spot gold was up by 0.8% to $4,740.42 an ounce. Bullion rose by more than 3% earlier in the session to its highest since March 19. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery?Settled 2% higher, at $4777.20. The ceasefire has calmed the markets and eased pressure. The ceasefire could ease inflationary pressures and open the door to Fed rate reductions, which would be good for gold, said Edward Meir. "But the situation is still fragile. Negotiations are needed on so many different levels. They could easily unravel, and there could be a temporary recovery on all markets. He added that we're "still not out of trouble". Pakistan mediated a ceasefire between the U.S., Iran and other parties for two weeks. Israel intensified its war in Lebanon even as Israel, the United States and Israel paused their attack on Iran. On hearing the news of a ceasefire, oil prices dropped below $100 per barrel. . The U.S. Dollar fell against a basket major currencies, making greenback priced bullion more accessible to other currency holders. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began on February 28, spot gold has fallen 10% as higher energy prices have stoked inflation fears, and investors have lowered their rate-cutting hopes. The non-yielding gold is under pressure from higher interest rates, despite its inflation hedge. According to minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting of March 17-18, policymakers began to believe that rate increases might be necessary to combat inflation, which continued to exceed its 2% target. This was especially true given the impact of the Iran War. This week, U.S. inflation indicator data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index & Consumer Price Index will be released. Spot silver rose 3.3% to 75.35 cents per ounce. Platinum gained 5.3% at $2,060.45 while palladium gained 7.6% at $1,581.33.
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Pakistan's last ditch effort to secure a truce in the Iran war
Four Pakistani sources said that the mediation efforts to stop the war in Iran were just hours away from failure when Pakistan launched an overnight diplomatic push. The goal was to secure a temporary truce and bring Washington and Teheran into direct negotiation. Sources with direct knowledge said that the effort almost collapsed after an Iranian attack on a Saudi petrochemical plant triggered fury and threatened to derail months of back-channel diplomacy. After Trump warned that continuing fighting could wipe out a "whole civilization" if it continued that night, Pakistani officials made a last-ditch attempt to send messages between Washington and Tehran. One source said that Pakistan had direct contact with all the top officials, including Trump and Vice President JDVance, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, and senior Revolutionary Guards Commander Ahmad Vahidi. Iran entered negotiations after a temporary ceasefire was agreed without conditions. A second source called the talks "intense and breathless". The first source stated that "in the evening, Iran felt on thin ice following the attacks against KSA (Saudi Arabia), but they knew the deadline would not be extended." Pakistan's civilian and military leadership continued to speak with senior U.S., Iranian, Saudi, and other officials throughout the night until Trump announced that the breakthrough. Source: Minutes before Trump made the announcement, he spoke to Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Muniz, according to the source. ASSURANCES ABOUT ISRAEL The?Pakistan sent its "strongest anger ever" to Iran about the attack on Saudi Arabia. Islamabad and Saudi Arabia have a mutual defense pact, which could drag Islamabad into a war. At the same time, Washington sought assurances that Israel would not strike Iran. Second source: Iranian officials claimed that they launched the attack on the Jubail petrochemical compound after Israel attacked an Iranian petrochemical plant. They added that Tehran would not be able to enter into negotiations if the strikes continued. The source claimed that Pakistan told Washington that Israeli action was jeopardizing its peace efforts, and that Islamabad may not be able?to persuade Iran into coming to the table. Pakistan was only able to convince Tehran to accept a temporary truce after it received assurances that Israel would not interfere. Two Israeli sources claimed that Israel opposed a deal to Iran because it believed more could be accomplished militarily. However, the country ultimately decided to back any decision made by Trump. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Washington coordinated with Israel, and the truce was not a commitment to end the war permanently, compensate Iran or remove sanctions. Officials added that the United States will insist on Iran's nuclear material being handed over, its uranium-enrichment being stopped, and its ballistic missile program to be eliminated in any future negotiations. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office did not reply to a comment request. NONE OF US SLEPT Shehbaz Shariff, the Pakistani prime minister, called on all parties at midnight (2000 GMT) to respect a ceasefire so that a peace process could begin. First source: The request was coordinated to secure the ceasefire after both parties had agreed in principle. The source stated that "we wouldn't have made the request if we knew the answer would be negative." A diplomat who has been in touch with both sides and is from the Middle East said that the late-night discussions included repeated exchanges about a U.S. 15-point proposal as well as two key questions: how would the ceasefire be implemented and what parameters should the Friday talks have? The diplomat stated that Washington would likely be unwilling to accept Iran's demand to recognize its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway which is at the heart of most of the conflict. The diplomat said that Tehran also asked for the right to pursue its nuclear energy program and to strike bilateral defence agreements with regional states. Although Pakistan has announced delegations arriving in Islamabad by Thursday, it's unclear which countries will be represented. Two Pakistani sources claimed that the Iranian delegation will be led by Araqchi, the Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and the U.S. by Vance. White House Press Secretary Karoline leavitt stated on Wednesday that there are "discussions?about in person talks, but nothing final is announced until the President or White House announces it". According to a third Pakistani source, the most difficult part of the process is convincing Iran to accept the ceasefire without any preconditions. "Iran acted like a hardliner until the last hour. The Iranians would not budge until their demands were made. The source stated that we told them to 'wait until the talks happen before putting forward their demands. Islamabad was almost in full sun by the time Trump declared the ceasefire and Sharif invited delegations from both nations. Sharif told a cabinet on Wednesday that he had been working all night. "... If we make it into a novel, it will be a lesson to this nation and future generations about not giving up when things seem hopeless. Reporting by Asif and Saad Shahzad in Islamabad; Humeyra in Budapest; Alexander Cornwell in Tel Aviv; Timour Azhari and Mubasher in Lahore; Writing and editing by Ros Russell.
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Oil price drop ahead of ceasefire is a big bet for traders worth $950 million
Investors bet $950 million on oil falling in the hours leading up to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement. This is the latest big wager made on the direction the world's largest traded commodity before President Donald Trump makes a major policy statement. According to LSEG, investors sold a total of 8,600 lots on Tuesday at 1945 GMT. Around 2230 GMT, Trump announced a two-week Iranian ceasefire after stepping back from his threat to destroy "a whole civilisation". This caused crude futures to drop by 15% at the start Wednesday's official trading session. It is not uncommon for traders to take large positions on the oil price, both rising and falling. This allows them to hedge large quantities of oil trade. These deals are rarely made in large lots. Instead, traders use "sweeping orders" to cover multiple exchanges. They also ask brokers to run algorithmic trading for several hours to execute their order. After settlement, which occurs Monday through Friday at 1830 GMT, large orders are rarely executed. Investors made a similar bet on March 23 when they sold $500 million worth of oil futures 15 minutes before Trump announced that he was delaying attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. This move stunned the markets and caused a 15% decline in crude prices. At 1945 GMT on Tuesday, 6,200 Brent futures were traded, which is roughly 1% of the volume of trading for the regular session. Around 2,400 WTI futures were also traded at this time. CME Group, the exchange operator, declined to comment. ICE and Commodity Futures & Trading Commission, which oversees U.S. derivatives markets for commodities, didn't immediately respond to a?"request for comments". Since the beginning of the war, trading volumes and volatility are at an all-time high. In the three years prior to the war, on average, 300,000 Brent crude futures were traded daily. This amount has doubled over the past four weeks, as daily volumes are at record highs exceeding 1 million lots. That's equivalent to one billion barrels. (Reporting from Amanda Cooper, Alex Lawler, and Ahmad Ghaddar, in London; editing by ElisaMartinuzzi, Dmitry Zhdannikov, and Elaine Hardcastle.)
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Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes
Experts have questioned whether some of Donald Trump's most important policy decisions were preceded by timely bets. This is a list. April 7, 2026: Announcement of the IRAN ceasefire. The traders placed a $950 million bet on the oil price falling, just hours before an announcement of a truce between the U.S. LSEG data shows that at 1945 GMT, a total of 8,600 lots were sold for Brent and U.S. 'crude futures. Around 2230 GMT Trump announced a two week ceasefire with?Iran. Crude futures fell by 15% at the start Wednesday's trading session. March 23, 2026: IRAN ATTACK pause. An unidentified trader bet $500,000,000 on Brent and WTI futures within a minute, shortly before Trump announced that he would delay the attack on Iran's infrastructure for five days. After Trump's announcement, oil prices dropped 15%. LSEG data indicates that between 1049 and 10:00 GMT, 5,100 lots were traded. Selling dominated the volume. Trump's announcement on social media at 1105 GMT caused over 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, to trade in just 60 seconds. Brent fell to $99 from $112 per barrel and WTI to $86 from $99. February 28, 2026: IRAN STRIKES KILLED SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH A. KHAMENEI Wagers made on platforms such as Polymarket prior to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah A. Khamenei heightened scrutiny on prediction markets. Democratic lawmakers called for a prohibition on bets that are tied to military action, which could reward people with privileged knowledge. Kalshi faces a lawsuit because it failed to pay $54million to those who had bet Khamenei's departure from office before March 1, 2026. The company claims that it doesn't offer markets where the outcome is determined by death. A review of Polymarket’s website revealed that at the time, $529 million had been wagered on contracts relating to the timings of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Another $150 million was bet on Khamenei being removed as supreme ruler. Prediction markets allow users to wager on real-world events through tradable contracts. Analysis?firm Bubblemaps has identified six accounts which made a total profit of $1.2 million from Polymarket bets funded just hours before the raids on the 28th February. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin from California highlighted one particular Polymarket bet that was placed shortly before Iran's strikes. Separately traders moved the opposite way on February 27. Despite hotter than expected inflation data, which would normally prompt investors to sell Treasuries with a long maturity, they pushed yields on the 10-year benchmark note below 4%. Analysts say that such a shift to safe-haven assets is usually driven by macroeconomic events which are negative or where there is a strong expectation of one. The Dow Jones U.S. Airline Index fell 5.13% that day, as well. January 3, 2026 -- U.S. CAPTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLASMADURO An unknown trader made a profit of approximately $410,000 in January after betting on the ouster Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Before the weekend raid by U.S. Special Forces on Maduro’s Caracas compound, a trader's account at Polymarket had built up contracts that were tied to Maduro’s removal. The terms used?implied high odds'. These wagers were worth $34,000 before his capture. However, their value soared after the news of the U.S. military action broke on January 3. Trading data shows that unidentified traders bet millions of dollars in minutes prior to Trump's announcement about tariff pause. This led to a huge rally in April, last year. Trump's Truth Social?pausing Tariffs post came at 1:18 pm. ET on April 9 triggered a 9.5% increase for the S&P 500. Data from the market shows that certain options contracts saw a surge in trading activity before it. Around 1 p.m., 5,105 call options for SPY were traded. The average price was $4.20. These calls rose to as much as $42 when stocks were rallying, turning $2.14 into approximately $21.44 on paper. Other SPY calls, betting that the ETF would rise above $509 were traded around 1:10 p.m. Their value increased from $624,000 to $10 million at the end of the day. It was impossible to determine if the calls had been bought or sold all by the same trader, or if they were purchased and sold by several traders. Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said that government ethics guidelines prohibit federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an email, he stated that any implication of Administration officials engaging in such activities without evidence was baseless and irresponsible.
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Trump announces 50% tariffs against nations that supply Iran with weapons
?U.S. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that all imports of military equipment from Iran will be subject to immediate 50% tariffs. There would be no exceptions. He made the announcement in a post on social media just hours after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire. Trump's Truth Social posting did not specify the legal authority that he would use to impose these tariffs. In February, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in order to impose global tariffs. A lower court ordered refunds for $166 billion collected during the course of one year. The 1977 IEEPA Law has been extensively used for years to support financial sanctions against Iran and North Korea. But the court ruled Trump overstepped his authority by using it to impose tariffs. No exceptions or exclusions will apply. "President DJT," Trump wrote. He did not mention any countries that might face punitive duties. China and Russia have provided missiles, air defense systems, and technology to Iran to help it build its military capability to counter U.S. pressure and Israeli pressure. This support was halted during the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Beijing and Moscow both denied recent allegations that they supplied weapons, but the accusations against Moscow persist. In February, before the first U.S. & Israeli strikes on Iran, it was reported that Tehran had been considering purchasing supersonic cruise missiles. In March, it was reported that China's largest semiconductor manufacturer, SMIC, had sent chipmaking equipment to Iran's army, according to senior Trump administration officials. Alternative Tariff Tools Trump has active "Section 301", unfair trade practices tariffs, on Chinese goods since his first term. He may be able add duties to these and other pending cases relating to excess industrial capacities and China's conformity with a trade agreement in 2020. These would need to be announced publicly before they can take effect. Trump may also be able to?invoke Section 232 of Cold War-era Trade Expansion Act of 1961, which allows for sector-specific tariffs on national security grounds. However, using this law will require a months-long investigation as well as public comments. New tariffs on 'Chinese' goods could exacerbate tensions between Beijing and Trump as he prepares to travel to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in order to finalize a 'delicate trade truce. The U.S. Trade representative Jamieson Greer stated on Tuesday that Trump will seek to maintain stability in the U.S. China relationship and to preserve U.S. Access to Chinese-produced rare-earth minerals, magnets, while maintaining previous tariff levels. Greer stated that "we are not seeking massive confrontation with China or anything of the sort"?in the meeting between Trump and Xi. Russia is another source of weapons technology for Iran. However, U.S. imports have dropped sharply after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. U.S. exports to Russia, which is one of the few countries that are not subject to Trump’s "reciprocal tariffs" now cancelled, increased by 26.1% in 2025 to $3.8 billion. Palladium is a major component of automotive catalytic convertors, fertilizers, and their components, as well as enriched uranium used in nuclear reactors. After an anti-dumping probe, the Commerce Department has already moved to impose punitive duties on Russian palladium. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Matthew Lewis and David Lawder from Washington)
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Sources say that Rusal is planning to redirect aluminium from China towards Japan, as the Iran conflict has reshaped trade.
Two?sources who are directly involved in the matter have confirmed that Rusal, the Russian aluminium manufacturer, plans to divert some of its aluminum away from China and towards Japan and other Asian countries, as the Iran War reshapes trade flows globally and sends prices soaring. According to Trade Data Monitor, the Middle East produced almost 7 million metric tonnes of primary aluminum last year. This is 9% of the global supply. Japan imported 2.1 million tons from the Middle East, with 400,000 tons coming from the UAE. The country imported 143,000 tonnes from China, but only 68,000 from Russia. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums between $350 and $353 per tonne for aluminium from April to?June. This is the highest premium in 11 years. Spot premiums are also on the rise, a potentially lucrative trend for producers. These premiums are usually paid over the London Metal Exchange's price and serve as a benchmark for regional comparison. Sources said that more Russian metal would be available in the future, but the imports of Russian aluminum into Rusal’s main market, China, will fall. From October to February, Rusal’s aluminium exports to China averaged between 170,000 and 180,000?tons per month. The two sources who were directly involved in Rusal’s plans, as well as two other people familiar with the industry, said that this is because Rusal’s Chinese customers do not want to pay Japanese premiums for domestic aluminium when it can be purchased at a lower price. One of the sources who has direct knowledge stated that "this is unavoidable" if arbitrage stays at the current level. Source: Rusal has increased sales in South Korea due to the Gulf situation. Rusal refused to comment on the rerouting of metal. Sources who declined to identify themselves as they weren't authorised to talk to the media did not reveal how much Rusal intended to sell in China or Japan for this year. RAGIONAL WAR, GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS Rusal’s move is the latest indication of how the Iran War has affected the 'physical' aluminium market. The Iranian attacks on two of the Gulf's largest smelters and the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz have led consumers to look for supplies elsewhere. Rusal will produce 3.9 million tonnes of aluminium by 2025. Sales of primary aluminum and alloys are higher, at 4.5 millions tons. This is due to the release from old stocks. Rusal's main export markets were China, South Korea, and Turkey in 2025. These three countries accounted for $5.2 billion ($1.2 billion), $802 million ($802 billion), and $5.2 billion ($1.2 billion) respectively of Rusal’s total revenue of $14.8 billion. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western consumers have shunned Rusal. Japan isn't the only market where physical aluminium prices have risen. In Europe, consumers will pay almost $600 per ton over the LME price for supplies, the highest since June 2022. In the United States, they'll pay a record-high of $2,500 per ton. The increase in Chinese aluminium prices is comparatively?more modest. Shanghai Futures Exchange Aluminium is down less than 4% since the beginning of the Iran War compared to a %10 increase in LME Aluminum in March. China accounts for 60% global aluminium production, despite the fact that it has received bumper inflows of aluminium from Russia, Indonesia and, more recently, ShFE. The number of warehouses is at its highest level in six years due to a soft demand. (Reporting and editing by Jason Neely, Joe Bavier, Amy Lv, and Polina Devtt)
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Workers say that Venezuelan refineries are only processing 31% of their crude oil capacity.
Workers said that Venezuela's refinery network is processing 399,000 barrels of crude per day, or 31%, of its installed capacity, which is 1.29 million barrels a day. This is below the 35% it achieved in February, as state-run PDVSA struggles with keeping units running after they are restarted, South America has seen its oil production and exports increase since signing a landmark supply agreement with the U.S. Government in January. However, limited power services, outages, and the need for major repairs and maintenance have created obstacles to recovering refinery operations. Workers said that in recent weeks the?PDVSA focused on restarting fuel making units at various refineries. However, some fluid catalytic cracked have been unable to run continuously. One source said that at the largest refinery in the country, the Paraguana Refining Center (955,000 bpd), four crude distillation units are currently operational and processing 237,000 bpd oil. However, only one fluid catalytic cracked is operational. Workers from these facilities reported that two crude distillation units were active at the 187,000 bpd Puerto la Cruz Refinery and one unit was active with 80,000 bpd. A fluid catalytic crinkler was also in service. Venezuela has experienced periods of severe fuel shortages in the past. Drivers were forced to wait in line for days at gas stations. According to data from ship tracking, PDVSA is importing naphtha under U.S. authorizations this year, which it has been using for complementing its own domestic fuel production.
How investors are dealing with Iran shocks using the new Trump trades
Investors are putting together a "Trump trade' playbook to?navigate market uncertainty. This includes determining whether a U.S. - Iran ceasefire will last and whether oil prices will remain high for longer.
As geopolitics continue to dominate the economy, it is difficult to move money based on long-term perspectives.
During the Iran War, many?investors have placed shorter-term bets instead on assets which may have been?mispriced?.
Here is a list of some new Trump trades.
1/OIL PRICE WILL STAY HIGHER FOR A LONGER TIME Oil prices fell almost 15% to $100 per barrel in the wake of the ceasefire on Wednesday, but are expected to stay higher longer due to the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil futures six-months out trade at around $79, a higher price than before the start of the war on February 28.
Some analysts claim that they have been swinging too low. They tend to fall sharply when it looks like a detente is more likely.
Michael Haigh, Societe Generale’s global head for commodities research, stated that even a successful ceasefire without further tensions could put an upper limit on the price of oil at $85 per barrel. He added that this would increase if more states, now concerned about energy security, began to stockpile oil.
Investors who avoided energy producers for years are now 'less bearish. Bank of America's March 31 survey found that 30% of investors still have a negative view of the sector due to ESG concerns. This is down from 40% six months ago.
Shell stated on Wednesday that it expects a stronger oil market in the future.
2/ CANADA AND NORWAY
Investors said that the U.S. Dollar has recovered its lustre following months of doldrums. However, if the war ends and the demand for the reserve currency is reduced, while crude oil prices remain high, then some oil producing nations' currencies could shine.
Van Luu, Russell Investments global head of solutions, said that it would take some time for things to get back to normal. The tankers might not travel for a few months, but oil prices could rise.
If oil prices are between $85 and $100 per barrel, energy exporters from politically stable countries (you could include Norway and Canada) should perform better.
BOND BOUNCE BACK? The U.S. president Donald Trump's pledge to halt the war sent British and Euro zone government borrowing rates plummeting, as fears of inflation among energy importers began to wane.
Money managers have said that these yields are still too high in comparison to interest rates and inflation expectations, particularly in Britain, where the base rate is 3.75% and consumer price inflation is at 3.2%, and the yield on the 10-year bond is slightly below 4.7%.
Nicolo B. Bragazza is a Morningstar Wealth Associate Portfolio Manager who is?positive about gilts.
In the euro zone, German 10-year yields have a value of around 2.9% in comparison to interest rates which are at 2%. The markets now only price a 20% probability of an April European Central Bank rate hike, down from 60% prior to Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement.
Hunting out anomalies
Bragazza stated that investors overreact when they hear good or bad news. This creates pricing anomalies, as assets which should not be correlated swing together on markets dominated with war sentiment.
Edmond de Rothschild's head of quantitative portfolio management Bruno Taillardat said: "Trading is not as evenly distributed as it should, and some sectors should be immune to this at the very least on a medium-term basis."
He pointed out that global healthcare stocks, which are usually considered to be relatively defensive?during recessions have traded in line since the start of World War II with a world-index of economically cyclical companies.
Investors who are able to detect the mispricing of opportunities due to daily market movements will stand out in sentiment-driven markets.
Taillardat predicted that Trump's rhetoric would keep the markets volatile, and cause headlines to be overreacted to.
Morningstar's Bragazza stated that "it's this type of asymmetrical behaviour that creates the right opportunity."
(source: Reuters)