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Zambia's fiscal year 2026 will be better as it recovers from drought, debt and other problems
Zambia's Government forecasted a better fiscal picture for 2026. It estimated that it would more or less halve the budget deficit, and boost economic growth to above 6%. After years of long-running debt restructuring negotiations, the copper-rich southern African country is trying to restore its public finances. The worst drought since living memory slowed down those efforts. Situmbeko Musokotwane, the Finance Minister, said in a speech on the budget that he aimed for a deficit budget of no more than 2,1% of gross national product (GNP) next year. This is down from 4.6% of GNP this year. The government wants to increase the real GDP to at least 6,4% by 2026 from 5,8% in 2025. It also wants to reduce inflation from its current level, which is around 12%, to the 6%-8% band set by central bank. Musokotwane said that the government's copper production goal of 1,000,000 metric tons by 2025 was "in view". He said that the country has reached agreements with its creditors on approximately 94% of debts being reworked. The minister stated that the government now serviced payments on all debt restructured, including Eurobonds. Musokotwane claimed that Zambia's long-running restructuring story, which began when it defaulted on its debts in 2020, taught it a "bitter lesson". Musokotwane stated that the law was amended to better oversee public borrowing by parliament and a debt management agency set up. He added, "The country has now moved in the right direction. The decline of the previous is over."
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Analyst Mielke says palm oil and soyoil will rise by $100-$150/ton early in 2026.
Thomas Mielke, a leading industry analyst, said that tightening supply will cause palm oil and soybean oil prices to increase by $100 to 150 per metric tonne between January and 2026. Mielke, who spoke at the Globoil India Conference, said that both oils would also benefit from an increase in biodiesel production in Brazil, the U.S. and Indonesia. He said that the global production shortfall will be more pronounced from January to March. He estimated that the growth in palm oil production, the most popular vegetable oil in the world, is slowing down. Only 1.14 million additional tons are expected to be produced in 2026 compared with the current year. He said that the Malaysian RBD palm oil prices, which are currently around $1,080 a ton, on a "free-on-board" basis, will rise by more than $150 a ton, if Indonesian government actions to seize palm plants have a negative impact on production. Agrinas Palma Nusantara is the state-owned palm oil company in Indonesia. It has 1.5 million hectares, which makes it the largest palm oil plantation by area. The company can produce 5.7 million tonnes of crude palm oil per year. He said that Argentine Soyoil is currently undervalued at around $1,050 a ton FOB and could increase, mainly due to increased biodiesel consumption. He said that while sunflower oil trades at a premium to rival soyoil in the first quarter of the year, this will disappear by the third quarter, as supplies from Argentina and the Black Sea improve. He said that imports of sunflower oil in India, China, and other important markets are on the decline. However, this trend will reverse itself once the premium for sunflower oil is removed. Buyers in India, which is the largest vegetable oil importer in the world, are currently paying a premium of $140 per ton over soyoil. He said that India's imports of vegetable oil in the 2025/26 year (starting November 1) are expected to increase by 1.5 million tonnes from a previous year. They will reach a record level of 18 million tons. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra, Shilpi Majordar, and Rajendra Jadhav)
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India dismisses as 'baseless,' NATO chief's comments about Modi-Putin discussions
India has rejected the "incorrect" and "baseless" remarks made by NATO's head that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had contacted Russian President Vladimir Putin about the impact of punitive U.S. Tariffs on India's purchases of Russian Oil. The Indian Foreign Ministry called the remarks speculative, and said that there had been no such conversation on Friday. In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke about U.S. president Donald Trump's decision to double tariffs against Indian imports, to 50%, due to India buying Russian oil. Rutte stated in an interview published Thursday that "this immediately impacts Russia, because Delhi is on the phone now with Putin in Moscow and Narendra Modi asked him: Hey, I support you but could you please explain to me your strategy, because I've now been hit 50% by tariffs from the United States". Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the Indian Foreign Ministry, told a regular press briefing that "the statement is completely false and factually inaccurate." "The Prime Minister Modi has never spoken to President Putin as suggested. "No such conversation has occurred." A NATO spokesperson responded to a question from: "We don't have anything more to add to the statements made by the NATO Secretary-General." India is the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who is trying to end the Ukraine conflict by brokering a settlement, said that India's oil imports helped fund Moscow's war efforts. New Delhi claims that its purchases of Russian crude oil have helped to keep the markets balanced and accuses the West of having double standards, because they continue to buy Russian goods worth billions. Reporting by Shivam Patel, New Delhi. Editing by Alex Richardson.
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China accuses EU of hypocrisy over critics of climate goal
China's Foreign Ministry said that the EU's climate chief's criticisms of China's climate pledges show "double standards" and "selective blindness", accusing them of slow action on their own climate targets. China pledged earlier this week to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 7% and a 10% reduction by 2035 compared to their peak levels as part of the new targets for its nationally determined contributions. Wopke hoekstra, the European Union's climate commissioner, called the goal "clearly disappointed". The Chinese Foreign Ministry appeared to make a reference to this statement without directly addressing it. A day earlier Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had described climate change in his address to the United Nations General Assembly as "the biggest con job." In response to Hoekstra, a ministry spokesperson wrote: "Some people are deaf and silent when they hear claims such as 'climate changes is a hoax.' Instead of ignoring and making irresponsible remarks about China's proactive and responsible actions to combat climate change." Hoekstra stated that China's new plan on climate change fell "well below what we believe to be both achievable and needed". The New York Times reported that he also called the United States climate policy "concerning" and "problematic". CHINA CALLS FOR MORE COOPERATION The statement read: "Such a rhetoric undermines the atmosphere for cooperation and disrupts global unity in addressing climate changes. That is what is truly disappointing." NDCs, or non-binding climate plans, are submitted to the UN every five years as part of the Paris Agreement. This 2015 agreement aims to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. After Trump's inauguration in January, the United States, which is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China, formally resigned from the Paris Agreement a second. After a February deadline, the EU still hasn't announced its new climate action plan. However, it agreed to set an emissions reduction target of between 66.25% - 72.5% from 1990 levels by 2035. China's Foreign Ministry called on the EU in its statement to change its habit of speaking loudly but doing little. The Ministry also stated that China had "the most resolute commitment, most powerful actions, and most effective implementation" of its emissions reductions. China has set new climate targets, marking the first time that it has pledged to reduce its emissions. However, the reduction rate pledged is far lower than the 30% cut required by 2035 as per some scientists to bring China in line with the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In October, the European Commission reported that greenhouse gas emissions in the EU would be down 8.3% by 2023 as compared to the previous year. They were also 37% lower than 1990 levels. This was despite a GDP growth of 68%.
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Gold prices rise as Fed rate cuts remain on the table despite inflation data
Gold rose on Friday as U.S. data on inflation came in line, confirming bets the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates later this year. Gold spot rose 0.3%, to $3,761.41 an ounce, as of 9:20 am EDT (1320 GMT), having hit a record high earlier in the week. This metal is up 2% in the last week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.6% to $3.792. "PCE monthly data are in line with expectations, although personal income and expenditure were a 10th higher than expected. This data won't stop the Fed from implementing another cautious rate reduction at its October meeting, said Tai Wong. U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 2.7% on an annual basis in August. This was in line with the expectations of economists in a recent poll. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now expect a rate reduction in October of 88% and another in December of 64%. The markets will also be watching remarks by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and Fed Vice-Chair Michelle Bowman in the afternoon for clues about the Fed's position. Gold is a traditional safe-haven and benefits from lower rates of interest. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, announced on October 1 a new round of tariffs for imported trucks, furniture and drugs. Silver spot rose by 0.5%, to $45.46 an ounce. This is a record high for the metal. Palladium, on the other hand, gained 1.3%, to $1266.50. It's now on track to have a weekly increase. Platinum increased 1.2% to $1.547.42 - its highest price in over 12 years. Analysts and traders have noted that silver and Platinum are gaining in popularity amid the rising gold price, as investors turn to less expensive alternatives. Wong stated that the pledge by Chinese President Xi to reduce net Chinese carbon emission by 7-10% between 2035 and 2035, has also prompted the purchase of silver used in solar cell manufacturing. He said that Freeport's declaration of force majeure in the Grasberg mine further confirmed this sentiment. Sherin Elizabeth Varighese reported from Bengaluru, and Shreya biswas edited the article.
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Pertamina, Indonesia's petroleum company, offers to supply Shell and BP stations
Pertamina, Indonesia's largest oil company, has offered to provide a cargo of gasoline that arrived in this week to Shell & BP-AKR due to petrol shortages. Shell, BP AKR – the operator of BP’s fuel stations – and other companies ran out of supply in this month after more customers sought them out following a report on the quality of Pertamina’s gasoline. In order to alleviate the shortages, the government has allowed private retailers to import additional fuel via Pertamina. Roberth Dumatubun, the corporate secretary of Pertamina Patra Niaga, said that the company was awaiting a response from the private companies regarding the first cargo, which it had ordered. The cargo was 16,000 kilolitres, or 100,640 barrels. A spokesperson for the energy ministry also stated that fuel was now available to private retailers and companies were in discussions about distribution. Shell declined to immediately comment. Shell refused to comment immediately. According to the energy ministry, the remaining import quota of Pertamina (7.52 million kilolitres) could be used by private retailers. Reporting by Fransiska Nanangoy in Jakarta, editing by Kirovan Donovan
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The Dangote refinery in Nigeria has fired some of its employees
A copy of the letter sent by the company to the PENGASSAN oil workers union, seen on Friday, shows that some employees of the Nigerian Dangote oil refining plant have been fired. This refinery, Africa's largest by far, has a crude processing capacity per day of 650,000 barrels. It could reshape the global fuel trade dynamics by creating a swing supplier within the Atlantic Basin. The number of workers who lost their jobs and whether or not the layoffs will affect production could not be confirmed immediately. In the letter, it was stated that the dismissals will be made by the evening on September 25. Dangote closed its gasoline unit at the end of August to undergo repairs that will take between 2-3 months. The refinery didn't respond to an immediate request for a comment. Kpler reports that the plant, which started processing crude oil in January 2024 exported more fuel oil in September. Modern oil refineries export more fuel oil during maintenance or outages. (Reporting and Additional Reporting By Owolabi Tife)
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Kremlin refuses to discuss the reported threat of shooting down Russian military planes violating European airspace
The Kremlin refused to comment on a Bloomberg article that claimed that European diplomats privately warned Moscow about NATO's readiness to shoot down any Russian aircraft that violated European airspace. Bloomberg reported that officials familiar with the conversation said the British, French, and German envoys delivered the warning during a meeting in Moscow. When asked how Russia would react if NATO shot down an aircraft, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov replied: "You don't want to even talk about this. It's a really irresponsible comment." He said: "It is very irresponsible, because the accusations that Russia's military aircraft violated airspace or invaded someone else's sky are unfounded. "No convincing evidence has yet been presented." NATO claims that three Russian MiG-31 jet fighters violated Estonian Airspace on September 19, and stayed for 12 minutes, before being forced to leave. NATO countries have accused Moscow, after dismissing Russia's denials of any involvement in the conflict, of reckless and provocation behaviour. The Estonian incident occurred nine days after Poland shot at Russian drones violating its airspace. The British government said that the Russian incursions increased the risk of an armed conflict with NATO. (Reporting and writing by Dmitry Antonov, Lucy Papachristou and Mark Trevelyan; editing by Toby Chopra).
Indian Oil Corp. plans to trade with Vitol, sources claim
Indian Oil Corp., the nation's largest refiner, has been in discussions with European trader Vitol about establishing a joint venture in order to increase its exposure on global oil markets. Three IOC sources confirmed this.
Two sources confirmed that talks about a possible partnership started last year.
IOC and its subsidiary Chennai Petroleum Corp control 80.8 million tons of refining per year (1.62 millions barrels per day), which is about 31% of India’s total 5.2million bpd.
The state-run firm is increasing the capacity of three refineries in order to increase crude processing by 346, 000 bpd within the next two year and plans to build an 180,000 bpd refinedry in southern India.
Sources said that Vitol will provide IOC market intelligence to help secure crude at better prices.
One source cautioned, however, that Vitol could gain direct access to IOC crude import strategy.
There is a danger that our classified information will be shared with a brokerage. This will place our other traders and suppliers at a disadvantage," said the source.
Second source: Any deal with Vitol will be a non-binding agreement. Details of the cooperation, which would include refined fuels and exports as well, are still being worked out.
IOC and Vitol have not responded to requests for comment via email. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Additional reporting in Brussels by Julia Payne; Reporting by Nidhi verma)
(source: Reuters)