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WTI's premiums and the increase in shipping costs threaten to close US-Asia arbitrage

WTI's premiums and the increase in shipping costs threaten to close US-Asia arbitrage

Trade sources reported on Tuesday that the arbitrage window for shipping U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude to Asia has shrunk as tanker rates have risen, and strong export demand has pushed up premiums for this grade to multi-month heights.

The U.S. Asia arbitrage opened in late summer, and the demand for Very Large Crude Carriers to make this two-month journey prompted a tightening of vessel supply.

Kpler's preliminary data shows that U.S. imports into Asia will increase in September. South Korea and India are the top buyers. The first shipment of U.S. oil for Pakistan's biggest refiner Cnergyico, and the first import from Vietnam for this year are also among Asia's U.S. sales.

Data from shipbroker SSY showed that the cost of chartering a VLCC for the transport of 2 million barrels from the U.S. Gulf Coast into China soared to $12.5m last week, the highest level since March 2023. This week, however, it has dropped to $12m.

Kpler estimates that U.S. crude oil exports to Asia will be 1.35 million barrels per day in September. This figure could increase if additional cargoes arrive.

The strong export demand also drove spot premiums at East Houston (also known as MEH) for WTI to $1.60 per barrel on Friday, the highest since February.

Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh stated that the high freight costs made it more risky to bring the cargo into Far East.

The surge in freight costs added $1.75 per barrel to shipping costs, according to a U.S.-based trader.

He added, "That would be enough to close the arb."

WTI-MURBAN PRICES GAP NARROWS

A Singapore-based trader reported that offers for 2,000,000 barrels of WTI to be delivered to Asia in December ranged from $4.50 to £5 per barrel over Brent dated.

Another trader stated that, by comparison, November-loading Murban oil could arrive in Asia in December for about $5 per barrel over Dubai's quotes. He added that the arbitrage was closed because Asia had reached its maximum volume.

Some traders say the arbitrage window has closed, but others are looking for November-loading WTI cargoes that may be offered later this week.

Another U.S. based trader stated that "for now, it seems like WTI premiums are impacting the U.S. - Asia arb for trade in November."

Goh, from Sparta, expects that freight rates will ease and the arbitrage economy for WTI will improve.

She added that "with only marginal WTI assistance and average supply, it is likely rates will retrace and improve WTI's competitiveness."

(source: Reuters)