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Softer spot LNG costs see demand gain, contrast with agreement pain: Russell

Lower spot rates for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia have yet to drive a significant boost in demand for the superchilled fuel, although there is an increase in cravings from pricesensitive purchasers such as India and China.

Asia's imports of LNG are estimated at 22.59 million metric lots for March by commodity analysts Kpler, a little below the 22.69 million tape-recorded for February.

Given the seasonality of LNG need, which peaks in the northern winter season and summertime, it's worth looking at the year-earlier months, and here the story is of modest import development.

The approximated imports in March are 4.2% higher than the exact same month in 2023, while February's arrivals were 4.6% above the very same month in 2015.

The little increase in arrivals worldwide's greatest LNG importing area contrasts with the high fall in the area cost for shipment to North Asia << LNG-AS >

. The area cost was $8.60 per million British thermal systems ( mmBtu) in the week to March 8, up a little from the three-year low of $8.30 reached on Feb. 23.

The existing spot price is 41% below the $14.50 per mmBtu that dominated in the same week in March last year.

Given the lag between when area freights are purchased and physically delivered, it deserves noting that the cost at the start of January 2023 was $25.00 per mmBtu, which was 55.2%. higher than the $11.20 in the very first week of this year.

The lower area cost has driven some increased buying from. nations that have actually traditionally bought more when expenses drop,. such as the South Asian countries of India and Bangladesh.

India's LNG imports are on track to reach 2.01 million lots. in March, up from 1.98 million in February, according to Kpler.

March's arrivals are anticipated to be 9.2% greater than the. very same month in 2023, while February's were 56% stronger than the. year-earlier month.

Bangladesh is expected to import 500,000 tons of LNG in. March, up 11% from the very same month in 2023, while February's. arrivals of 400,000 lots was a boost of 48% from the. year-earlier month.

China, the world's most significant purchaser of LNG, is also deemed. something of a price-sensitive importer, provided its mixture of. both long-lasting agreements and spot freights.

China's imports are estimated at 5.99 million tons in March,. up 10.3% from the exact same month in 2023, while February saw. arrivals of 5.82 million loads, a jump of 17.1% from the. year-earlier month.

With spot costs below the cost of unrefined oil-linked. agreements, it's likely that China will seek to buy more spot. cargoes, while using any flexibility in its term agreements to. lower these volumes.

CONTRACT PAIN

The regards to long-lasting LNG agreements are rarely disclosed,. A common arrangement would see LNG priced on a slope against. Brent, with the typical cost per mmBtU running at about 13.5%. the rate of a barrel of oil.

At the existing Brent cost of $81.92 a barrel, this. ways agreement LNG would be around $11.06 per mmBtu, a premium. of about 29% to the current spot expense.

The distinction between area and agreement costs can be seen. in imports by Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG importer and. a purchaser that gets the bulk of its cargoes under long-lasting. contracts.

Japan's imports are approximated at 5.13 million tons in March,. down 6.9% from 5.51 million in March last year, while February's. arrivals of 6.07 million were 6.5% below the year-earlier month.

It's a similar story for South Korea, Asia's third-biggest. LNG importer and another purchaser that utilizes primarily long-lasting. agreements.

South Korea's March arrivals are approximated at 3.08 million. lots, a drop of 30% from the very same month in 2023, while. February's imports of 3.82 million lots were down 24.4% from the. year-earlier month.

The general image from the LNG market in Asia is that the. lower spot prices are driving some additional buying by. developing economies, but the higher agreement rates are. restricting need in more industrialized markets such as Japan and. South Korea.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)