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The Fed's pivotal fervor has cooled the global stock market

The Fed's pivotal fervor has cooled the global stock market

The excitement over a possible U.S. rate cut in September waned on Monday. U.S. stock futures fell during pre-market trade as investors focused on the larger economic picture.

As of 1258 BST, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and Nasdaq Futures were down 0.3%. This indicates a lower Wall Street opening.

Powell's change in stance has caused futures markets to price an 84% probability of a quarter point rate cut in September and at least 100 base points of easing up to 3.25-3.5% in the middle of next.

The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.1%, and remained near the record highs set on Friday. In Asia, blue chips in China closed at their highest levels since 2022 with a gain of over 2%. Japan's Nikkei also closed 0.4% higher.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index was also down 0.2%, due to the decline in renewable stocks. This is after the U.S. Government ordered Denmark's Orsted halting construction of an offshore project near Rhode Island.

Orsted's shares dropped by a record 17 percent after the move. It was a blow to the industry, and it put Orsted's capital raising plans at risk.

London's markets were closed due to a holiday. This lowered the overall trading volume in Europe.

The shares of Amsterdam-listed JDE Peet’s rose roughly 17% following Keurig Dr Pepper's agreement to purchase the company for $18,36 billion, a 20% premium over Friday's closing prices.

Sources told the weekend that they expect the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged in September. If the economy continues to weaken, discussions about future cuts could resume in the fall.

Florian Ielpo is the head of multi-assets at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. He said: "As an investment manager, you are losing an enemy when the Federal Reserve pivots, because it allows valuations to become more expensive."

Ielpo, a Lombard Odier analyst, said that, after analyzing inventory data from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers, he found that, while manufacturers had stockpiled in response to tariff announcements made by the government, retailers were holding little inventory at lower levels of the economic food-chain.

Ielpo said that companies returning to replenish their stock will soon discover the true cost of U.S. Tariffs. This will be reflected in their third-quarter earnings.

Two people with knowledge of the matter say that Switzerland hopes to finalise soon a new offer to Washington in order to reduce its tariff burden. This will include increased defence spending as well as greater access to U.S. interests for energy.

The Swiss were shocked when U.S. president Donald Trump hit them with 39% tariffs this month, which are among the highest in the world.

The Swiss Franc climbed 0.1% in relation to a basket. The dollar rose around 0.3% on the broader currency market to 147.31yen, after falling by 1% Friday. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1705 after recovering from its Friday low of $1.1583.

The dollar rose, boosting the outlook for corporate profits, but also suggesting that policymakers are more concerned about a possible downturn in the economy and employment.

The yields on euro zone bonds rose after falling late Friday, as traders reassessed the Fed's move and its impact in Europe.

Due to the bank holiday, U.S. Treasury cash treasuries were not traded in London on Monday.

The market's optimism will be put to the test by Friday's reading of personal consumption prices in the United States. It is expected that core inflation will reach its highest level since late 2023, at 2.9%.

Any surprise in inflation could also threaten the rally of longer-dated Treasuries. This is especially true given that $183 billion worth of new debt will be sold this week.

John Williams, the influential head of New York Fed is scheduled to speak on Monday. Markets will be eager to know if he shares Powell’s policy outlook.

NVIDIA WATCH

Nvidia is expected to report its results on Wednesday. It is predicted to announce an increase of 48% in earnings per share based on a revenue of $45,9 billion.

Analysts are eager to learn more about the prospects for shipments into China, and the details of President Donald Trump's agreement to pay 15% of sales revenue to the U.S. Government from advanced chips sold in China.

Trump announced on Friday that the U.S. will also purchase a 9,9% stake in Intel, for $8.9 Billion, or $20.47 a share. This represents a discount by about $4 compared to Intel's close share price of $25.80.

Gold was slightly lower last week at $3,368 per ounce, after a 1% jump late last year.

The lack of progress in the talks between Russia, Ukraine and Ukraine has also supported oil prices.

Brent crude oil rose by 43 cents, to $68.16 per barrel. U.S. crude gained 25 cents, to $64.13 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)