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India limits duty-free imports of gold for jewellery exporters in order to curb demand
India tightened the rules on duty-free gold imports for jewelry exports, capping the imports at only 100 kilos per license, according to an order from the government. The country is the second largest consumer of precious metals in the world. This week, the South Asian nation raised its import tariffs for gold and silver from 6% to 15% as part of an effort to reduce foreign purchases of these metals. It also aims to ease pressure on reserves of foreign currency due to higher oil prices. India is one of the leading exporters in the world of gold jewellery. New Delhi allows manufacturers and jewellers, under the scheme of advance authorisation, to import gold for export without paying any duty. On Thursday, the?government changed import rules for jewellers by capping gold imports at 100 kilograms per license and tying future licences with fulfilling at least 50% earlier export obligations. According to the order, first-time applicants must also undergo a physical inspection of the manufacturing facility by regional authorities in order to verify its existence, production capability and operational status. The holders of licences are also required to submit fortnightly, independent, chartered accountant-certified reports detailing the gold imports or exports that were conducted under this scheme. The new rules have excessive compliance requirements. The government appears to be trying to discourage gold imports even though this could result in a decrease in jewellery exports. According to the data collected by the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, India's gold jewellery exports in 2025/26, which included both plain and studded segments, stood at $11.36 Billion in fiscal year 2025/26, which ended in March. "The government appears determined to reduce gold imports." "The government is increasing import barriers, one by one," said an Indian bullion dealer based in Kolkata. (Reporting and editing by Mark Potter, Ros Russell and Rajendra Jadhav)
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Gold prices steady as investors turn their attention to the Middle East and Trump-Xi summit
Gold 'prices remained steady on Thursday as investors focused on the latest developments of the U.S. and Israel war against Iran, and the signals from President Obama's meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Dollars other than the greenback rose by 0.2%. This makes bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive. At 1043 a.m. (1443 GMT), spot gold was unchanged at $4,689.99 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell by 0.2% to $4695.80. The price of oil dropped after Iran's?state media reported that 30 vessels had recently crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on vessels were also reported in the area. Bart Melek is the global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that if the Middle East conflict doesn't end, there is a risk of a major downturn in gold. He added that if the Middle East conflict is not resolved, there could be a significant downturn in gold prices. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool the price of a U.S. rate cut has been priced in at any time this year. This is due to an energy-driven sharp rise in U.S. consumer and producer prices in April. Gold is considered a hedge against rising inflation but higher interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding material. In a recent note, Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu.com said that gold is lacking a firm direction. Markets are weighing lingering geopolitical uncertainties,?the economic impact from the Middle East conflict, and the hope that the 'Trump-Xi' meeting will?help broker a solution. Xi also told Trump on Thursday that the trade talks were progressing but warned against a disagreement about Taiwan which could cause'relationships to fall apart, or even lead to conflict. Taiwan was not mentioned in the U.S. summary. The Indian government has announced a 100-kilogram limit on imports of gold under its advance authorization program, which allows Indian exporters to benefit from certain exemptions. Silver spot fell by 3.5%, to $84.88 an ounce. Platinum fell by 3.4%, to $2,065.05, while palladium fell by 3.7%, to $1,443.62. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Ishaan arora in Bengaluru)
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Iraq requested financial assistance from IMF in response to the Iran war, a source said
A source close to the IMF confirmed that Iraqi officials had approached the IMF about financial assistance due to the conflict in the Middle East. The source stated that initial discussions took place 'last month at the spring meetings of IMF and World Bank, in Washington. Discussions are still ongoing on how much funding Iraq will need, and how a loan will be structured. The massive U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign that began February 28 against Iran, which prompted Tehran to close the Strait o'Hormuz, has rocked Middle East and caused damage to infrastructure and economies. Iraq has been 'hard hit' by the war. The majority of its oil exports, which represents nearly all of government income, have been cut off due to the closure of a critical waterway that previously carried around?one fifth of the world?s crude oil. IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack stated that the IMF worked with the World Bank, the International Energy Administration and other organizations to assess the effects of the war on its member countries. She added that the Fund is also actively engaged in discussions with its member countries, many of whom are seeking policy advice. She said that IMF Director Kristalina Georgeieva had stated the IMF had received requests for help from "at least 12" countries, but refused to give any details on which countries requested assistance. The Iraqi government and its embassy in Washington did not immediately comment. Iraq's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports. Iraq's latest financial deal with IMF was a $3.8 billion standby agreement that expired in July 2019. Of this amount, $1.49bn was drawn. Iraq is owed $2.39 billion by the global lender, which includes $891 million that was provided through a rapid funding instrument. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, and Andrea Shalal)
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US Wireless carriers launch joint venture to address rural "dead zones"
Verizon, AT&T, and?T-Mobile announced on Thursday they had agreed in principle to form a joint venture to address coverage gaps that have existed for years - especially in rural areas - by using satellite-based technology. The plan, according to the largest wireless companies in the United States, aims to eliminate nearly all dead zones that lack mobile service. The plan aims to improve network performance and ensure redundant connectivity in natural disasters using "direct-to-device" satellite technology. The Federal Communications Commission has approved EchoStar’s $40 billion sale to SpaceX and AT&T of wireless spectrum. EchoStar will sell?65 Megahertz to SpaceX at a cost of $17 billion in order to enhance SpaceX’s Starlink’s next-generation device-to device offering. The joint venture will invest in satellite-based direct-to device technologies to fill coverage gaps. Analysts also believe that the joint venture could be defensive, as some are concerned SpaceX will eventually compete directly with U.S. wireless providers. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said in an interview that the sale of $40 billion worth of spectrum provides Starlink with a clear path to "enter direct into the cell market." Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has stated that the company has deployed over 650 Starlink satellites to support a new direct-to device business. Musk said that the company's goal was to "deliver complete cellular coverage on Earth." Carr said Starlink would be able to deal with dead zones on its own, or in partnership traditional carriers. SpaceX will gain 'exclusive-use spectrum to develop a Starlink service that connects devices or directly to cell phones, among other services. The FCC stated that AT&T’s low-band spectrum would expand coverage throughout the United States, particularly in rural and underserved regions. Carr said, "We are fundamentally reshaping wireless industry with this approval." "As regulators, our job is to give the market a fair chance at settling itself." Direct to cell is not a "winner", but neither are we putting it aside and declaring it as a "loser". The FCC has also granted SpaceX waivers to address the convergence of satellite and wireless broadband. The FCC's announcement allows SpaceX to use their new spectrum in a flexible manner for hybrid, terrestrial and space-based network architectures. The FCC has ordered EchoStar to set up an escrow fund of $2.4 billion, which would cover any amount that EchoStar may owe as a result of disputes over the work done under licenses. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Nick Zieminski and David Shepardson)
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Investors focus on Middle East and Trump-Xi Meeting as gold prices ease
?Gold prices dipped on Thursday as investors focused mainly?on a?recent development in the Middle East conflict and signals from U.S. president Donald Trump's recent meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping. At 9:42 am EDT (1342 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.4% to $4,668.34 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell by 0.7% to $4672.70. The dollar?U.S. The dollar rose 0.1% and made metals priced in greenbacks more expensive to holders of other currencies. Oil prices fell after Iran's official media reported that 30 vessels had recently crossed the Strait of?Hormuz. This report briefly boosted gold prices. Bart Melek is the global head of commodity strategy for TD Securities. He said that if this Middle East conflict doesn't end, there is a risk of a "significant downturn" in gold. He said that if inventories and supplies of energy products are reduced, prices could rise dramatically, resulting in an increase in inflation. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool the U.S. rate cuts are largely priced in at this point in the year due to an 'energy-driven increase in U.S. consumer and producer prices in April. Gold is considered to be a hedge against rising inflation. However, as interest rates rise, the metal tends to lose its appeal. The data released on Thursday revealed that?U.S. Retail?sales increased in April but some of this increase was due to higher prices. Xi reassured Trump on Thursday that the trade talks are progressing, but warned that disagreements over Taiwan could lead to a 'dangerous path' and even conflict. Taiwan was not mentioned in the U.S. summary. Spot silver dropped 3.8% to $84.00 per ounce. Platinum fell 3.4% at $2,065.50 and palladium fell 3.7% to $1,443.74. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; editing by Paul Simao)
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Iraq requested financial assistance from IMF in response to the Iran war, a source said
A source close to the IMF confirmed on Thursday that Iraqi officials had approached the International Monetary Fund in order to?secure financial assistance due to the conflict in the Middle East. Sources said that initial discussions took place during the spring meetings in Washington of the IMF and World Bank, and are continuing about how much funding Iraq will need and the structure of any loan. The Middle East has been rocked by the war that began February 28 with a massive U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign on Iran. This led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq was hard-hit by the war. Its oil exports, which make up nearly all of its government revenue, were cut off due to the closing of the crucial waterway that?previously transported about one-fifth the world's crude oils. The?IMF and the Iraqi Embassy did not immediately comment. Iraq's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports. It has the?fifth-largest?petroleum reserve in the world. Iraq's latest financial?deal was a $3.8 billion standby agreement that expired in July 2019. Of this amount, $1.49billion was drawn according to the IMF website. Iraq is owed $2.39 billion by the global lender, according to the website. This includes $891 million that was provided through a rapid funding instrument. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, and Andrea Shalal)
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Venezuelan bonds rise after debt restructuring by government
Venezuela's bonds rose on Thursday, after the country began a restructuration exercise that is expected to be one of the largest and most complex sovereign debt restructuring exercises undertaken. Venezuelan government announced that it has appointed U.S. consulting firm Centerview Partners to rework what is estimated at hundreds of billions dollars in sovereign and state-owned debt. The dollar-denominated bonds of the country, which have been in default for years but still trade on financial markets, reached their highest level since more than a decade. Data from Tradeweb showed that the bonds of Petroleos de Venezuela, a state oil company, were at a decade high, at 40 to 50 cents. Jean-Charles 'Sambor is the head of EM Debt at TT International, London. He viewed it as a signal that a restructured debt was now a top priority for both Caracas, and the White House. He added that "the recovery rate will high" because we are dealing with a country whose oil production and debt sustainability has improved sharply. COMPREHENSIVE & ORDERLY Venezuela, the South American nation with the largest oil reserves in the world, and Petroleos de Venezuela (the state oil company) owe between $150 and $170 billion dollars of debt and interest. This burden must be reduced for the economy to remain viable. The government announced late Wednesday that it aimed for a "comprehensive" and "orderly" overhaul of the debt burdens, which would include both sovereign debt as well as that of PDVSA. Venezuela defaulted on its debts due to U.S. sanction pressure in 2017. However, its bonds have steadily increased since U.S. president Donald Trump returned the White House at the beginning of last year. Since the U.S. ousted President Maduro, in January, momentum has picked up and Washington's relations with acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodrguez have become closer. In a client note, JPMorgan analyst Benjamin?Ramsey stated that the goal is to move "expeditiously" with financial advisers. "We remain MW (marketweight), Venezuela in our portfolio model, pending an?improved assessment of a framework for debt sustainability." Ramsey said that although the process was questioned, it is worth noting that it began before the International Monetary Fund provided its assessment of Venezuela's economic prospects or debt sustainability metrics.
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Markets focus on Trump-Xi Meeting
?Gold was largely stable?on Friday, as investors focused mainly on a meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping. They also digested a rise in U.S. prices due to increased energy costs associated with the Iran War. As of 1112 GMT, spot gold was up 0.2% to $4,696.36 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.1% to $4,703.70. China's Xi said that the trade talks are?making good progress? at the beginning of a two day summit on Thursday, but that a disagreement over Taiwan might?damage relationships and even lead conflict? Gold is still hovering at $4,700 while markets digest the latest U.S. inflation figures. It is very evident that we are now in a phase of consolidation," said Swissquote analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa. Data on Wednesday revealed that U.S. Producer prices had posted their largest increase in four-years in April. This is the latest indication of an accelerating inflation. On Tuesday, data showed that the annual U.S. consumer inflation had posted its biggest gain in three year. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a large amount of interest rate increases this year. This is due to the rising cost of energy. The?U.S. The Senate has approved Kevin Warsh to be the chair of the Federal reserve. Gold is considered to be a hedge against rising inflation. However, as interest rates rise, the metal becomes less attractive. HSBC has raised its forecasts for silver prices to $75 an ounce by '2026. The bank cited the weaker U.S. -dollar. However, the bank believes that there is only limited room 'to the upside as silver remains too overvalued. Silver spot fell by 1.3%, to $86.86 an ounce. Platinum fell by 1.3%, to $2,110.70. Palladium fell 2.2%, to $1,467.03. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis in Bengaluru, Noel John)
Andy Home: US aluminium consumers are paying the rising cost of tariffs.
The price of physical aluminium in the United States is now 68% higher than that on the London Metal Exchange.
It is obvious that this is a direct result of President Donald Trump increasing import tariffs in March from 10% to 25 % and then again in June to 50 %.
The "all-in price" of aluminum is now above $5,000 per metric tonne, due to the additional $560 that the physical delivery premium in the Midwest U.S. adds to the implied tariff costs.
Metals are in short supply across many industries, from construction to packaging and automotive.
On paper, the record-high premium for U.S. deliveries should bring in much needed supply. However, in reality, the situation may not be as simple.
Imports down, Stocks shrink
After a long period of decline, which saw only four smelters operating, tariffs were intended to stimulate the domestic primary aluminum production.
Century Aluminum has only restarted 50,000 tons at its Mt. Holly plant located in South Carolina. By June, the smelter should be back to its full capacity.
Even if they are able to compete with Big Tech in the long-term for power supplies, there are still several years before these projects can produce their first metal.
The U.S. is still dependent on primary metal imports, which are falling. Volumes fell by 14% between 2024 and the first 10 month of 2025.
Around May of last year, Canada, historically, the biggest supplier to the U.S. Market, began?diverting its shipments to Europe.
According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics, between May and October, the Netherlands exported 225,000 tons of metal, Italy 89,000 tons, and Poland 29,000 tons.
The U.S. primary metal stocks have been declining.
According to Harbor Aluminum and Wittsend Commodity Advisors, the?short period between tariff increases didn't permit much preemptive inventory building. In-country inventories have shrunk, from 750,000 tones at the beginning of 2025, to below 300,000.
The increased U.S. premium should be a warning sign that the country is in need of more aluminum.
Cross-Atlantic Competition
However, the problem for U.S. purchasers is that Europe also lacks aluminium. The European duty-paid premiums over LME cash have risen from less than $200 per ton in June to more than $340 per ton.
Triple supply cuts are putting pressure on the region.
South32's decision, due to high electricity prices, to mothball?Mozal Aluminium Smelter in Mozambique removes an important supplier for the European market.
A second supplier, the Grundartangi Smelter in Iceland owned by Century Aluminum, reduced production by two thirds due to an?equipment breakdown' in late October. The recovery will take approximately 11-12 months.
In line with the 16th package of sanctions from the European Union, all imports of Russian metal will be stopped this year. The European Union granted European buyers a grace period of one year to phase out the imports. This grace period expires on next month.
Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM) is also a factor that has contributed to the rise in local premiums. This mechanism, which was implemented this month by Europe, raises import prices for products with a higher carbon footprint.
CAPPED SUPPLY
Traders used to simply buy up LME stock and ship them to the United States in order to profit from premium spikes.
However, Russian metal is a large part of LME tonnage registered, 58% at the end of December. It cannot be imported into the U.S. due to sanctions.
There is also much less aluminum in LME's warehouses today than there was in the past when the global market exhibited a persistent oversupply.
The total LME stock, both registered and stored in shadows off-warrant, was 669,000 tonnes at the end of 2025, down 331,000 tons from the beginning of the year.
This speaks to structural changes that are taking place in the global marketplace.
Chinese operators have now reached or are very near the maximum output mandated by the government.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, Chinese production growth has slowed down from 4% in 2024 to only 2% last Year.
Yet, smelter margins are highly profitable. The price of aluminium has been increasing, but the price of alumina, an intermediate product has plummeted. This is the kind of combination that once would have triggered a rush to restart and build new capacity, but no longer.
China imports more and more primary metal. The volume of metals imported by China increased 19% on an annual basis in the first eleven months of 2025. A large portion of the inbound volume came from Russia. Due to sanctions, Russia has shifted away from Western buyers.
China's semi-manufactured products exports fell by 11% during the same time period. This is due to the end of the tax exemption on outbound shipments, which will take place in December 2024.
Global markets are tightening. This process is complicated by the simultaneous fragmentation of prices between regions.
FLOW-THROUGH
If the impact of tariffs on U.S. prices were to be isolated, physical arbitrage would quickly resolve it.
But it isn't. The physical aluminium industry is a complex one, and there are many moving parts. Right now they are all working together to reduce supply.
It is not good news for consumers that the price of aluminum in the U.S. has increased.
The Trump administration’s August extension of tariffs of 50% to a broad spectrum of aluminum products has kept midstream processing companies onside, but also serves to accelerate the transfer of higher primary metal prices to the ultimate purchaser.
Imports must pick up quickly or U.S. consumer will be in for a surprise.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. These opinions are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)