Latest News
-
Investors assess Trump's Greenland push and TSX gains as a result
Canada's major?stock index bounced back on Wednesday from the previous session's sharp drop, as investors digested new comments by U.S. president Donald Trump, who said in Davos that he wouldn't use force to take over Greenland. As of 10:25 a.m., the S&P/TSX composite index was up by 0.4% to 32,880.61. ET. The benchmark recorded its largest?decline on Tuesday since November 20, when global markets fell after Trump threatened to impose?tariffs?on?eight European countries if U.S. wasn't allowed to takeover Greenland. The comments revived the "Sell America," narrative that was last seen in April of last year after Trump's sweeping Liberation Day levies, and raised fears?over an U.S.-European trade war. The U.S.?president spoke at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday in?Davos. Energy index led the gains on TSX. After losing 1% Tuesday, it jumped 2.9% to a high of nearly 12 years. Industrial stocks gained 0.6%, and the heavyweight index of financials added 0.5%. The TSX, which is heavily weighted in resources and precious metals, has benefited from the surging prices of precious metals so far this season. However the Greenland standoff as well as Tuesday's sharp fall highlight that Canadian equities may not be immune to a risk-off global environment. Angelo Kourkafas is a senior investment strategist with Edward Jones. "Volatility is likely to be higher than in the previous?three-month period." It is encouraging, but also comforting to know that the basis for this bull-market remains solid. Individual stocks like Teck Resources rose 6.4%, after the copper mining company reaffirmed their production outlook for 2026. Eldorado Gold gained a further 4.9% following the announcement that the gold miner had exceeded its production guidance for the prior year. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Ananda; Utkarsh T. Hathi)
-
VaroPreem CEO VaroPreem says that refining is "critical infrastructure" for Europe
VaroPreem Chief Executive Dev Sanyal stated on Wednesday that Europe must consider oil refining as "critical". He is preparing for further consolidation in a industry battered by decades-long closures and increased competition from newer foreign plants. Europe closed dozens of refineries over the last 30 years due to a decline in oil production and older plants struggling to compete with newer facilities in China and India. The energy company's boss said that the continent couldn't afford to lose more capacity. He was speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, which took place in Davos, Switzerland. The entire European refining industry is changing. Sanyal stated that refining is important for Europe because it's a critical infrastructure. He said that smaller refiners would be forced to sell assets because they lack the financial strength to keep all of their plants. Some oil majors and larger companies could also divest assets as they redirect their capital to upstream development. Sanyal stated that consolidation would be more likely to occur for companies such as Varo. Varo has now acquired Preem, a Swedish company. It has also completed its acquisition. Varo has now over 500,000 barrels of conventional refining per day. This makes it the second largest renewable fuel producer globally and the second largest in Europe. Sanyal stated that when he became chief executive of Varo in 2022, that he would commit to triple the earnings and size within five years while increasing returns on capital. He said that "all targets were met 18 months earlier than the schedule." Sanyal responded that the company saw "many opportunities for growth" when asked if Varo considered a stock exchange listing to allow Vitol and Carlyle Group shareholders to capture value. He said that the company's approach was to closely track customer demand, rather than try and get ahead of them. "Shutting off conventional fossil fuel demand wasn't the right decision." Sanyal stated that we don't want the demand to be shut down before society is ready to do so. (Editing by Joe Bavier).
-
US construction spending rises in October amid renovations
Construction spending in the United States increased more than expected during October, with home renovations likely driving the increase, while other areas of construction activity was weak. The Census Bureau of the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that construction expenditures rose 0.5% in October after dropping?0.6% during September. The economists polled had predicted construction spending to rise by 0.1% in October. In October, spending fell 1.0% on an annual basis. The 43-day shutdown of the government delayed the data. The spending on private construction projects increased by 0.6% in October, after falling 0.9% in September. After a 1.4% drop in September, residential construction investment jumped 1.3%. This was despite a drop of 1.3% in new single-family projects. The spending on?multi-family housing units, which make up a small part of the housing market fell by 0.2%. Renovations are likely to be the reason for the rise in residential expenditures. The cost of building materials and labor has increased due to higher mortgage rates, tariffs on imported goods as well as the increase in mortgage?rates. A glut of new housing is also preventing builders from starting new projects. Mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks, after the Trump Administration began purchasing mortgage-backed securities. This could encourage home purchases and reduce housing inventory. However, rising long-term U.S.?bond?yields in the face of renewed trade tensions with Europe and Washington could limit declines. Mortgage rates are based on the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is rising 'after President Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs against nations who do not support his bid to buy Greenland. Residential investment has been a drag for the gross domestic product in three consecutive quarters. In October, investment in nonresidential structures such as offices and factories dropped 0.2%. The spending on nonresidential buildings has been declining for seven quarters in a row, but the construction of data centres amid a boom in artificial intelligence could help. After increasing by 0.4% in September, investment in public construction projects increased 0.1%. The October construction expenditures of state and local governments increased by 0.3%, while federal government spending decreased by 2.0%. Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci and Andrea Ricci (Reporting)
-
Gold prices rise above $4,800/oz amid geopolitical tensions
Gold reached $4,800 per ounce on Wednesday for the first time as geopolitical tensions, including U.S. president Donald 'Trump's bid to control Greenland, drove demand for safe havens. By 9:30 am, spot gold had risen 2.1% to $4,865 an ounce. ET (1430 GMT), the price of gold had risen to $4,887.82 in earlier sessions. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery climbed almost 2% to $4.856.3 per ounce. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that there is a 'fear' of missing out. Given the geopolitical climate in 'the world' it's an ideal storm for higher prices of gold and silver. Investors digested Trump’s Davos, Switzerland speech, where he claimed that Europe was heading in the wrong direction, but denied using force to take over Greenland. The U.S. Supreme Court will be deciding on Trump's unprecedented move to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook in a case which tests the independence of the central bank. According to the majority of economists surveyed by?, the Fed will likely hold its key interest rate through this quarter and perhaps until Chair Jerome Powell ends his tenure in May. Gold that does not yield is a good investment. Silver spot was unchanged at $94.61 per?ounce after reaching a record high $95.87 an?ounce on Tuesday. This was due to tight supply and increased industrial demand. Silver's rise into a three-digit number looks quite likely given the price momentum we are currently seeing. However, it won't be a one way move. Soni Kumari said that there could be a correction in 'prices, and volatility may be higher. Spot platinum rose 1% to $2,487.05 an ounce, after reaching a record of $2,511.80 earlier in day. Palladium fell 0.9% to $1,849.25 after reaching its highest level in a week. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
-
Armenian PM: Trump-backed project to combine energy systems between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Armenia and Azerbaijan are integrating their energy systems in order to facilitate imports and exports of electricity, the Armenian prime minister said on Wednesday. In his address to parliament, Prime Minister Nikol Pahinyan did not give a timeline or any specifics. He said that the move was a part of a strategic transit corridor planned through the South Caucasus, known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought for almost four decades over the mountainous area of Nagorno Karabakh, and finally reached an agreement. Peace agreement brokered by the U.S. After meeting Donald Trump in the White House, I was able to get a job at the White House. The TRIPP?project, as proposed, would cross southern Armenia to give Azerbaijan a route directly to its exclave Nakhchivan?and then to Turkey. Baku is a close ally of Turkey. Armenia will give the United States a share of 74% in the TRIPP 'Development company for 49 years, and keep the rest. This was revealed in a joint.statement issued after a meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister and U.S. Sec. of State Marco Rubio earlier this month in Washington. Under the deal, the U.S. firm would have exclusive rights to develop the Corridor and could extend it for another 50 years. Armenia's equity stake in the company would then rise to 49 percent. As part of the deal, Yerevan will retain full sovereignty over its borders and customs, as well as taxation, security, and taxation. The project involves?new and updated rail infrastructure?, oil and natural gas pipelines?, and fibre optic cables?crisscrossing South Caucasus?, a strategically important region situated between Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Azerbaijan has begun sending Gasoline shipments After a pause of?some three decades, the two countries have resumed diplomatic relations. However, no peace agreement has yet been signed. Azerbaijan demands that Armenia amend its constitution preamble which Baku claims implicitly claims Azerbaijani territories. Pashinyan has called for an amendment to the constitution in a referendum, but no date has yet been announced. Reporting by Lucy Papachristou, Maxim Rodionov and Lucy Papachristou. Writing by Lucy Papachristou. Editing by Mark Trevelyan.
-
As frustrations over the state's response mount, communities in Chile that have been ravaged by fires pull together.
The fires that raged near Concepcion, a city in southern Chile, were putting out by Wednesday morning. Cloudy skies and humid air brought cooler temperatures to coastal areas after extreme heat for days. The smoke plumes lingered and it was expected that the death toll would rise, as the police and state coroner continued to search for bodies inside apartment blocks damaged by fire. Residents began to clear debris and rebuild with the help of neighbors and volunteers. Carlos Lopez, city councillor of nearby Cobquecura gathered money, nails and wood as well as cement and other construction materials. With the help of local businesses, Carlos Lopez delivered these items by truck to Punta de Parra. This was one of the worst-hit areas, where dozens of houses were destroyed. Residents saw 'dreams disappear' Lopez said, "We felt the desperation of the situation and we put our hands on our hearts." Doralisa Silva (34), a local resident, was unable to get wood from the truck, but Celeste, her daughter of two years, received jackets and toys. They were sheltered under metal sheets propped up against a remaining cement wall. Silva stated that it was "chaotic and painful" to see all of your dreams vanish overnight. The fire broke out and Silva attempted to escape the town with daughter, but the exits were covered. She was forced to seek refuge in a field near their house. Silva and the other residents affected by the floods praised their community's help, but criticised what they called a lack in support from national government. Nancy Barrientos (44), a neighbor, said, "All of the help we've received has come from people who have delivered food, tents or clear information from the authorities." Mayor Criticizes Slow Response Rodrigo Vera said that local governments are restoring basic services, such as electricity, but also echoed the criticisms of a "slow" national response. Vera stated that it took 12 hours for an emergency to be declared. This delay has hindered the deployment of firefighting and military resources. "Everything was slow. "The pain of the people is not tomorrow but yesterday." The incoming president Gabriel Boric, who is leaving office in a few days, visited Concepcion but did not visit the communities that were destroyed because of security concerns. Boric told Temuco residents on Tuesday that reconstruction will begin after the search for victims is complete, and that emergency housing and financial assistance are being started. Boric stated that "we are working as fast as possible, but processes must be followed." His office didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Boric's Government was criticized by critics for its slow reconstruction after the Valparaiso fires of 2024. Jose Antonio Kast will take office as president on 11 March. He has promised to give priority to rebuilding communities that have been affected by fires. "People need food and a roof. Vera stated that this requires a new rhythm and political will.
-
Trump will speed up the approval of permits for deep sea mining in international waters
The Trump administration will push ahead with its effort on Wednesday to encourage U.S. deep sea exploration by speeding up?permitting companies that are hunting for vital minerals in international waters. This move is likely to raise environmental and legal concerns. This effort could 'help?spark?a U.S. led scramble to find resources on the deep seabed, before global standards for the relatively new techniques of mining are in place. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has finalized a rule that follows an executive order signed by U.S. president Donald Trump. This executive order was intended to bolster the deep-sea?mining?industry in a bid to counter China's control over critical metals. According to a government press release, the U.S. officials will consolidate licensing and permits into a single, ostensibly faster review. The Metals Company, a Canadian mining company, began the process of obtaining such exploration licenses and permits last year. This was a step forward in its bid to be the first to receive approval for developing deep-sea minerals. Some parts of the Pacific Ocean, and elsewhere, are believed to have large amounts of polymetallic nodules, which are potato-shaped rocks filled with building blocks for electric vehicles and electronic devices, such as nickel, cobalt, and copper. There are still questions about the future of regulation in the industry. Trump's executive order instructed his administration to speed up mining permits issued under the Deep Oceanbed Hard Minerals Resources Act?of 1980, and to set up a process to issue permits along the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. Since years, the International Seabed Authority (created by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea which the U.S. does not have ratified) has been examining standards for deep-sea mines in international waters. It hasn't formalized the standards because of disagreements over the acceptable levels for dust, noise and any other factors from this practice. Companies are lining up for U.S. waters to mine. Supporters of deep-sea mining have argued that the practice will reduce the need for large land-based mining operations, which are not always popular with the host communities. Environmental groups have demanded that the activities be banned because they warn that industrial operations at the ocean's bottom could lead to irreversible biodiversity losses. Trevor Hunnicutt, Thomas Derpinghaus and Trevor Hunnicutt report.
-
Sources say that India's Reliance will buy Russian oil compliant with sanctions in February and march.
Four sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that India's Reliance industries Ltd, the operator of the largest refinery in the world, will'receive' sanctions-compliant Russian crude oil between February and March, after a one month pause. Reliance received its last shipment of Russian crude in December, after it secured a U.S. concession allowing it to extend the deadline for ending business with Rosneft (a Russian oil company sanctioned by the U.S. government) beyond November 21. Sources said that Reliance, like other Indian refiners will purchase Russian oil from non sanctioned sellers. They did not elaborate on how many cargoes the refiner had booked for February and March. The private refinery has not yet confirmed if it will continue to purchase Russian oil after March. Reliance didn't respond to an email asking for a comment. REFINERS BOOST MIDDLE-EAST CRUDE IMPORTS Sources said that despite Reliance's return to India, India's total Russian oil imports will?remain subdued throughout February and March. Reliance imported Russian crude as part of a long-term contract with Rosneft. The agreement was for 500,000 barrels a day (bpd), for its 1.4million bpd Jamnagar complex in Gujarat. The European Union announced that it would not accept fuel produced by refineries which received or processed Russian oil for 60 days before the date of the bill of lading. Reliance said that it would process cargoes arriving after November 20,?at the 660,000 barrels-per-day plant in India, which allows it to continue to sell fuels to the EU through its 704,000 barrels-per-day export-oriented refinery. India's refiners, who became the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude after a war broke out in Ukraine in 2022, have re-calibrated their crude import strategies and are increasing Middle Eastern purchases, as they move away from Russia. Srinivas T., Chief Operating Officer, Refinery and Marketing, Reliance, stated last week that "we have faced instances when sanctions were imposed suddenly and had to cutback." He said that Reliance had increased its purchases of oil from other national companies in advance to avoid disruptions on the spot market. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise, journalists in Moscow)
Andy Home: US aluminium consumers are paying the rising cost of tariffs.
The price of physical aluminium in the United States is now 68% higher than that on the London Metal Exchange.
It is obvious that this is a direct result of President Donald Trump increasing import tariffs in March from 10% to 25 % and then again in June to 50 %.
The "all-in price" of aluminum is now above $5,000 per metric tonne, due to the additional $560 that the physical delivery premium in the Midwest U.S. adds to the implied tariff costs.
Metals are in short supply across many industries, from construction to packaging and automotive.
On paper, the record-high premium for U.S. deliveries should bring in much needed supply. However, in reality, the situation may not be as simple.
Imports down, Stocks shrink
After a long period of decline, which saw only four smelters operating, tariffs were intended to stimulate the domestic primary aluminum production.
Century Aluminum has only restarted 50,000 tons at its Mt. Holly plant located in South Carolina. By June, the smelter should be back to its full capacity.
Even if they are able to compete with Big Tech in the long-term for power supplies, there are still several years before these projects can produce their first metal.
The U.S. is still dependent on primary metal imports, which are falling. Volumes fell by 14% between 2024 and the first 10 month of 2025.
Around May of last year, Canada, historically, the biggest supplier to the U.S. Market, began?diverting its shipments to Europe.
According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics, between May and October, the Netherlands exported 225,000 tons of metal, Italy 89,000 tons, and Poland 29,000 tons.
The U.S. primary metal stocks have been declining.
According to Harbor Aluminum and Wittsend Commodity Advisors, the?short period between tariff increases didn't permit much preemptive inventory building. In-country inventories have shrunk, from 750,000 tones at the beginning of 2025, to below 300,000.
The increased U.S. premium should be a warning sign that the country is in need of more aluminum.
Cross-Atlantic Competition
However, the problem for U.S. purchasers is that Europe also lacks aluminium. The European duty-paid premiums over LME cash have risen from less than $200 per ton in June to more than $340 per ton.
Triple supply cuts are putting pressure on the region.
South32's decision, due to high electricity prices, to mothball?Mozal Aluminium Smelter in Mozambique removes an important supplier for the European market.
A second supplier, the Grundartangi Smelter in Iceland owned by Century Aluminum, reduced production by two thirds due to an?equipment breakdown' in late October. The recovery will take approximately 11-12 months.
In line with the 16th package of sanctions from the European Union, all imports of Russian metal will be stopped this year. The European Union granted European buyers a grace period of one year to phase out the imports. This grace period expires on next month.
Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM) is also a factor that has contributed to the rise in local premiums. This mechanism, which was implemented this month by Europe, raises import prices for products with a higher carbon footprint.
CAPPED SUPPLY
Traders used to simply buy up LME stock and ship them to the United States in order to profit from premium spikes.
However, Russian metal is a large part of LME tonnage registered, 58% at the end of December. It cannot be imported into the U.S. due to sanctions.
There is also much less aluminum in LME's warehouses today than there was in the past when the global market exhibited a persistent oversupply.
The total LME stock, both registered and stored in shadows off-warrant, was 669,000 tonnes at the end of 2025, down 331,000 tons from the beginning of the year.
This speaks to structural changes that are taking place in the global marketplace.
Chinese operators have now reached or are very near the maximum output mandated by the government.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, Chinese production growth has slowed down from 4% in 2024 to only 2% last Year.
Yet, smelter margins are highly profitable. The price of aluminium has been increasing, but the price of alumina, an intermediate product has plummeted. This is the kind of combination that once would have triggered a rush to restart and build new capacity, but no longer.
China imports more and more primary metal. The volume of metals imported by China increased 19% on an annual basis in the first eleven months of 2025. A large portion of the inbound volume came from Russia. Due to sanctions, Russia has shifted away from Western buyers.
China's semi-manufactured products exports fell by 11% during the same time period. This is due to the end of the tax exemption on outbound shipments, which will take place in December 2024.
Global markets are tightening. This process is complicated by the simultaneous fragmentation of prices between regions.
FLOW-THROUGH
If the impact of tariffs on U.S. prices were to be isolated, physical arbitrage would quickly resolve it.
But it isn't. The physical aluminium industry is a complex one, and there are many moving parts. Right now they are all working together to reduce supply.
It is not good news for consumers that the price of aluminum in the U.S. has increased.
The Trump administration’s August extension of tariffs of 50% to a broad spectrum of aluminum products has kept midstream processing companies onside, but also serves to accelerate the transfer of higher primary metal prices to the ultimate purchaser.
Imports must pick up quickly or U.S. consumer will be in for a surprise.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. These opinions are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)