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Oil prices rise slightly as the market weighs up supply risks
The price of oil rose a little on Friday, after the U.S. increased economic pressure on 'Venezuelan crude oil exports and conducted airstrikes on Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria on the request of 'Abuja. Brent crude futures increased by 6 cents or 0.1% to $62.30 a barrel at 0456 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), also at $58.41, was up 6 cents. Venezuela and Nigeria both produce a lot of oil. Nigeria's oilfields, which are located mainly in the south of the nation, were also affected by the airstrikes. The White House has ordered its military to concentrate on a "quarantine", of Venezuelan oil, for at least the next two months. This shows that Washington is more interested in using an economic pressure than a military one to put pressure on Caracas. Tong Chuan is an analyst at Galaxy Futures. Oil prices are now primarily driven by disruptions in the supply chain. Investors are assessing the risks of disruptions in supply, including Venezuela, and weighing U.S. economic development. Brent and WTI oil prices are expected to fall by 16% and 18% respectively this year. This is their steepest drop since the COVID outbreak hit?oil consumption. Two market sources reported on Wednesday that oil shipments via the Caspian pipeline from Kazakhstan are expected to fall by a third this December, to their lowest level?since 2024. This is after an attack by a Ukrainian drone damaged the?facilities of the main CPC terminal. U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release official data for inventory on Monday. This will be a little later than usual because of the Christmas holidays. The data will give an indication of the demand for oil in the world's largest oil consumer. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman, Thomas Derpinghaus and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore)
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Shanghai copper reaches record highs on signs of tight supply
Shanghai copper reached a record-high on Friday. This was supported by signs that the copper concentrate supply would continue to be?tight next year. A weaker dollar also boosted sentiment. The most active copper contract at the 'Shanghai Futures Exchange' was up 3.5% to 98.550 yuan (US$14,064.31) per metric ton by 0327 GMT, after reaching an all-time peak of 98.590 yuan earlier in the day. On Wednesday, the London benchmark reached a high of $12,282, which is close to the $12,300 level. Sources said that the top copper smelters of China did not set guidance for copper concentrate processing charges in the first quarter 2026. This is the 'fourth time consecutively the group has refused to do so, as feedstock shortages have pushed the fees to record lows. CCTV reported that China launched three venture capital funds on Friday to invest in "hard technologies" areas. According to the report, the capital contribution plans have been finalised. Each fund will receive more than 70 billion yuan. The fund's expected targets would include firms that focus on integrated circuits and quantum technology. They could also include biomedicine, brain-computer Interfaces, aerospace, and "soft" technologies such as internet services. Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice next year. This has led to a continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar, which is hovering near its two-month lows. Dollar-priced metals are more appealing to those who hold other currencies. Lead and aluminium were also up 0.6%. Zinc fell 0.5%. Nickel rose 0.9% but ended a six-day streak of gains on Thursday, after reaching an eight-month-high on Wednesday. Tin lost 0.14%.
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China will limit copper and alumina production under the next five-year plan
China's top economist said that from 2026 until 2030, the country will tighten up its oversight of copper and alumina project to prevent irrational investment and disorderly growth. In an article published on its website, National Development and Reform Commission said that local governments should strengthen feasibility studies and align their approvals to national industrial policies. The commission's guidance is aimed at copper and alumina industries, which it said were key to economic and military growth, but that their development should take "differences" in regional industrial bases and resource endowments, as well as environmental capacity into account. The NDRC?said that China would also encourage mergers & restructuring among large companies to increase industry 'concentration' and competitiveness. Beijing will also continue to encourage overseas mining investments in its next 5-year plan. China is the largest consumer and producer of copper and aluminum in the world. It has warned repeatedly of the risks of unchecked investment and overcapacity. China has suspended plans to smelt copper in the amount of 2?million tons, according to China's Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. China is on track to produce a record amount of refined copper in 2025. In the same period of time, China's alumina production reached 84.7 millions tons. This is also expected to be a record for 2025.
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The price of iron ore falls due to a cooling in demand and stockpiling
As inventories increase and demand slows, iron ore futures declined on Friday. As of 0224 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 0.51% lower. It traded at 773.5 Yuan ($110.40). As of 0224 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $0.1 lower at $103,95 per ton. SteelHome data shows that total iron ore stocks in Chinese ports increased by 2.26% on a weekly basis to 148.8 millions tons as of December 26. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that the Chinese steel mills' inventories of five major carbon products had fallen to 14.5 millions tonnes on December 25. This is the lowest level since late January. Iron ore production in Australia and Brazil has increased, but China's demand for steel is down due to its prolonged property market. Since mid-2021, China's property markets, which used to be the largest steel consumers, have been in a constant decline, with falling home prices and shrinking sales. On December 12, the country announced a system of licensing to regulate steel exports in an attempt to stabilize prices. Tadashi Imai, Chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation said on Thursday that the licensing scheme would not be an effective way to address these issues. Japan, the world's second-largest?exporter? of steel, has criticized Chinese firms that receive government subsidies, which encourage overproduction and low-priced exports. This worsens global market conditions. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell dramatically, by 4.04% and 3.39 %, respectively. The drop in coking coal price reflected a cooling of demand. According to Mysteel, around 47.7% total of the coking coal cargoes that were offered at auctions on December 25 failed to find buyers. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. Wire rod, however, rose by 2.57%.
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China commits to controlling steel production during the 2026-2030 period
China said on Friday that it would continue to regulate crude-steel output and prohibit the addition of illegally new capacity between?2026 and 2030. As part of its plan to reduce carbon emissions, the world’s largest steel producer and consumer will stop increasing crude steel production in 2021. A protracted downturn in the property market had also affected domestic steel consumption, leaving the industry with an overcapacity. China's crude output of steel fell by 4% in the first 11 month of?2025 compared to the same period a year ago, keeping the annual total on course to drop below 1?billion tonnes for the first time in 6 years. In a recent statement, the National Development and Reform Commission (the state planner) said that the raw materials industry, including the steel, is currently experiencing a problem with an unbalanced supply-demand. The report added that "the raw-materials industry must deepen the supply-side reform in the Fifteenth Five Year Plan (2026-2030)... survival of the fittest is promoted." China's steel imports have been a booming business since 2023. This has helped to offset the decline in domestic demand. They have also sparked a global protectionist backlash with a growing number countries enforcing trade barriers because they claim that China's cheap goods harm local manufacturers. Beijing announced last week a plan for a licensing system to be implemented in 2026, to regulate the exports of around 300 steel-related products.
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Sources say that China's first batch fuel export quotas for 2026 are stable year-on-year.
Three sources with knowledge of the matter late Wednesday said that China had issued 19 million tons of export allowances, including gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and other refined fuels. They said that the world's second largest consumer of oil, China, also distributed 8 million tons of low sulphur marine fuel export "quotas" in this batch. Both volumes were stable compared to a year ago. China uses a quota system to manage its refined fuel exports. This is done in order to balance supply and demand fundamentals on its domestic market. The Commerce Ministry did not immediately respond to a faxed request for comments. The main recipients of the quotas were the state-owned oil entities Sinopec & CNPC. They received 13.76 millions tons of allowances for gasoline, jet-fuel and diesel exports – more than 70%. Zhejiang Petrochemical, a major private refiner, was allocated 1.56 million tonnes of export quotas in this first batch. The 19 million tons total of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel export quotas were used for the processing trade. 6.6 million tonnes of this amount was for aviation fuel bunkering. Almost 85% of the 8,000,000 tons of low-sulphur'marine fuel' allocated to Sinopec CNPC. China's first 11 months 2025 saw its exports of refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, aviation and marine bunker, total 52.65 millions tons, a 3.2% drop on the previous year.
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Oil prices rise as the market takes into account Venezuelan supply risks
The price of oil rose on Friday, after the U.S. increased pressure on Venezuelan oil exports and carried out airstrikes in Nigeria's northwest against Islamic State militants at the government's request. Brent crude futures rose 24 cents (0.4%) to $62.48 per barrel by 0114 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), also up 0.4% at $58.58, was up by 23 cents. Venezuela and Nigeria both produce a lot of oil. Nigeria's oilfields are primarily located in the southern part of the country. The airstrikes increased the geopolitical risk. The White House has directed U.S. forces to concentrate?on an "quarantine", of Venezuelan oil, for at least two months. This indicates Washington is more interested in using economic means than military ones to?pressure Caracas. Investors weighed the U.S. economy's growth and assessed risks of supply disruptions, including those in Venezuela. Brent and WTI are expected to fall by 16% and 18% respectively this year. This is their steepest drop since the COVID outbreak hit oil demand. Two market sources reported on Wednesday that oil shipments via the Caspian pipeline are expected to 'drop by a quarter in December, to the lowest level since October 2024. This is after an?Ukrainian?drone strike damaged the main CPC export terminal. U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official inventory numbers on Monday. This is later than usual because of the Christmas holidays. The data will give an indication of the demand for oil in the largest oil-consuming country. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman in Singapore)
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Four Liechtenstein families found dead
Police said on Thursday that the three Liechtensteiners who were found dead in the past week belonged to the same family. The local police confirmed that the body of a 41 year old man was found on Wednesday, on the Swiss bank of the Rhine near Vaduz. The police reported that he was a senior employee from the municipality of Triesen south of Vaduz who had been suspended just a few weeks earlier because of?irregularities in the accounting. Later, police?found in an apartment of Vaduz the bodies of two women aged 45 and 68, and a man, 73. The police said that these were the parents and sister of the municipality worker. The four deaths are being investigated by autopsies. (Written by Dave Graham, edited by Andrew Cawthorne).
Sources say global producers are offering Japan aluminium buyers a premium for Q1 according to sources
Two sources who were involved in the quarterly price talks stated that top aluminium producers raised their premium offer to Japanese buyers from $190 to $203 to $210 to 225 per metric tonne.
Japan is one of Asia's largest?importers?of light metals, and its quarterly premiums over the London Metal Exchange cash price (LME) set the benchmark in the region.
Early December, the latest quarterly price negotiations between Japanese buyers and miner's including Rio Tinto and South32 began. Sources said that usually, negotiations end before the start of the new quarter, but this time, they are expected to continue into next month.
Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, they declined to be identified.
Producers offered Japanese buyers a premium of $190 to $203 per ton in the previous quarter, an increase of?121%-136%.
Sources said that the revised offers ranged from $210 to 225 dollars after 'South32' announced last week plans to mothball Mozal Aluminium Smelter in Mozambique by March because the company failed to secure a deal for power with the government.
One source, who is employed by a producer, said that the suspension of Mozal would further tighten the global supply.
The source said, "We had hoped to reach a deal this month but the gap remains large between buyers and sellers. Negotiations are likely to continue into the New Year."
The second source at a rolling-mill said that despite weak demand in Japan spot?premiums had risen to $160 to $170 per ton. She added that a?increase for the current quarter was unavoidable.
The source said, "As buyers, we see around $165 for a reasonable premium in the next quarter. However, the gap between producers and us is significant, so it will take some time to reach an agreement."
Three major Japanese ports have large stocks of aluminium
(source: Reuters)