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Nikkei reaches record highs as trade tensions ease
Asian stocks rose Tuesday, as the prospect of an easing of trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies increased risk sentiment. The Nikkei also reached a new record high due to the near certainty that Sanae Takaichi will be the next Japanese prime minister. U.S. president Donald Trump said he expected to reach a fair deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and downplayed the risks of a conflict over Taiwan. In recent weeks, trade tensions between China and the U.S. have weighed heavily on the markets. Investors are now focused on Trump's meeting with Xi next week on the sidelines an economic conference held in South Korea. Investor sentiment was lifted by the lingering optimism that a solution could be in sight. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reached a four-and-a-half-year-high and closed the day up by 0.94%. China's stocks were up 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1% in early trading. Investors snapped up stocks of rare earths, critical minerals and other essential materials after Australia signed a deal to supply the United States. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.86%, reaching a new record high. It was also on the verge of surpassing 50,000 points before a vote in parliament later that day. This vote is expected to confirm fiscal dove Takaichi to be the next Prime Minister of Japan. INVESTORS BUY DIP Investor sentiment also suffered last week, as a series of bad loans in regional U.S. banks sparked concerns about credit risks which threatened to spill over into the wider markets. Risk assets were also affected by the prolonged U.S. shutdown. Investors have bought the dip this week, shrugging off concerns about trade tensions and focusing instead on upcoming earnings of several large companies. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said, "The market has easily overcome the wall of concern, as new capital was injected into risks and fresh air into the market's lung." The market was buoyed by the expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its next two meetings. Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Advisor, also commented on the likelihood of the shutdown ending this week. All three major U.S. indexes closed sharply higher overnight, with chip stocks reaching a new record high. Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.3% on average year-over-year in the third quarter, a marked improvement from their estimate of 8.8% as of October 1. TAKAICHI SET TO BECOME JAPAN'S PM Takaichi, a conservative hardliner, is almost certain to be the first woman prime minister of Japan if the vote in parliament takes place later today. Investors anticipated Takaichi as the likely next premier after Ishin's backing. The yen last strengthened by 0.1% to 150.61 dollars, up from 150.61 in the previous session. Analysts expect Takaichi will be pro-stimulus, and against any further increases in interest rates. This is a negative for yens and bonds, but positive for stocks. The euro remained steady at $1.164925. The dollar index remained unchanged at 98.575. Due to U.S. rate cuts and safe-haven flows, gold prices were near records highs. Spot gold prices eased slightly to $4350 per ounce. This is just below Monday's record high of $4381.21.
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South32's quarterly manganese production in Australia beats expectations, shares rise by 6%
South32 reported a higher-than-expected output of manganese for the first three months on Tuesday. This was after its Australian operations recovered from weather-related interruptions. The shares of the world's largest manganese producer rose as much as 6.3%, to A$3.315. This is their highest level since March. The diversified mining company said that it had executed a successful operational recovery plan in its Australian manganese sector and increased export shipments following the damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan last year. The company announced that the unit had completed an insurance settlement relating to the effects of the tropical storm. An additional $153 million was also agreed under external insurance recoveries. This brings the total approved to $503 millions. Jefferies analysts said that although the cost of the extra assets was higher than their estimation, the performance of the core assets as a whole was strong. The domestic manganese division produced 854,000 wet metric tonnes during the quarter compared to zero output last year. South Africa's manganese production fell by 551,000 wmt during the first quarter of the year, compared to the previous year. The company has maintained its production forecasts for fiscal 2026 across all of its operations. Graham Kerr, CEO of Graham Kerr Metals Ltd. said: "We remain focused on maintaining the operating momentum and capitalising upon strengthening market conditions for base metals." The threat of closing the Mozambique aluminum smelter remains a concern for the company, which has said that the negotiations to secure affordable electricity have not advanced. Reporting by Sneha Kumra and Nichiket Sonil in Bengaluru, Editing by Shreya Biwas and Alan Barona
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Oil prices drop on fears of oversupply
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday due to concerns over excess supply, and the risks of demand arising from tensions between U.S.A. and China, two of the world's largest oil consumers. This was despite President Donald Trump saying he expects to reach a deal. Brent crude futures were down 14 cents or 0.2% at $60.87 per barrel at 0005 GMT. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is due to expire Tuesday, fell 0.1% to $57.45. The December contract, which is more active, was down by 13 cents or 0.2% at $56.89. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Monday that he expected to reach a fair deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The disagreements regarding tariffs, market access and technology are still unresolved before their meeting scheduled for South Korea next Monday. "I believe we'll have a very good trade deal." "Both of us will be pleased," Trump said. Ritterbusch and Associates stated in a report that the trading outlook for crude oil is bearish. They recommend selling at price increases rather than buying on pullbacks. They added, "But we also feel there is enough geopolitical unrest to occasionally offset the oil balances which are becoming increasingly negative each week." A preliminary poll conducted on Monday, before the weekly reports of the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration, showed that U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased last week. A drone attack in Russia forced the Rosneft controlled Novokuibyshevsk Refinery to stop primary crude processing Sunday. Separately, an attack on the Orenburg Gas Plant forced Kazakhstan to reduce output at its Karachaganak Oil and Gas Condensate Field by 25 to 30%. Trump has reiterated that India will face "massive tariffs" if it does not stop buying Russian crude. India is now the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude oil after Western sanctions against Moscow. The International Energy Agency's bearish forecast last week, which predicted that the global oil market would face a surplus in 2026 of almost 4 million barrels a day as OPEC+ and its rivals increase production while demand is sluggish, has contributed to the fall. Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Sonali Paul, editing.
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US bets against Australian miners will break China's grip over critical minerals supply
U.S. president Donald Trump and Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese have agreed to guarantee a constant supply of rare earths and critical minerals, as the United States reduces its dependence on Chinese supplies. The U.S. Export-Import Bank issued seven letters-of-interest (LOIs), on Monday, for financing of more than $2.2billion, unlocking up $5billion of total investment to advance critical mineral and supply chain projects between the United States and Canada. The Australian mining companies who have revealed details of their LOIs received from EXIM are listed below: ARRANGEMENTS ANNOUNCED MONDAY VHM has received a letter of interest updated from EXIM, for up to 200 million dollars in funding. The term could be extended to up to 15 years. This is to support the development of Goschen's rare earths and minerals sands in Australia. LATROBE MAGNESIUM Latrobe Magnesium announced that EXIM is willing to finance up $122 million of the stage 2 commercial magnesium plants in Victoria, Australia. RARE ARAFURA EARTHS EXIM has provided a nonbinding LOI to support Arafura’s Nolans Project in the Northern Territory. In preliminary discussions, EXIM is considering a financial support of up to $300,000,000. NORTHERN MINERALS EXIM stated that it could consider a potential debt financing of up to $230,000,000 to support Northern Minerals Browns Range Heavy Rare Earths Project in Western Australia. AUSTRALIA PROJECTS - AGREEMENTS ANNOUNCED PRIORLY AUSTRALIAN STRATATEGIC MATERIALS Australian Strategic Materials received an LOI in March 2024 from EXIM for a debt financing package of up $600 million, to support the construction of its Dubbo Rare Earths Project northwest of Sydney. EQ RESOURCES EQ Resources has received a Letter of Intent (LOI) from EXIM for a loan facility up to $34m to support the Mt Carbine tungsten project in Australia. VICTORY METALS Victory Metals secured an $190 million Letter of Intent (LOI) from EXIM in April 2025 for the development in Western Australia of its North Stanmore Heavy Rare Earths, Scandium and Hafnium Project. SUNRISE ENERGY METALS Sunrise Energy Metals received an LOI in September 2025 from EXIM to finance up to $67 Million for its Syerston Scandium Project in New South Wales Australia. Previous announcements of agreements for projects outside Australia AMERICAN EARTHS American Rare Earths has received a Letter of Intent (LOI) from EXIM for a debt financing package of up $456 million in September 2024 to support the construction of the Cowboy State Mine at its Halleck Creek Project in Wyoming. ANSON RESOURCES EXIM offered to provide $330 million by September 2024 for the construction of Anson Resources’ lithium production plant at the Paradox Basin in Utah. Meteoric Resources U.S. EXIM offered $250 million as a preliminary grant to Australian-listed Meteoric Resources in March 2024 to help develop the Caldeira rare Earths project in Brazil. IPERIONX IperionX announced in April 2025 the EXIM approved an equipment financing loan of $11,000,000 to support the significant expansion of IperionX’s advanced titanium manufacturing capability in the U.S. QUANTUM GRAPHITE Australian miner Quantum Graphite announced in July 2024 it had received a Term Sheet from EXIM to borrow up to $300,000,000 to fund the Utile Project near the North Atlantic Ocean. AMAERO INTERNATIONAL Amaero International received a $22.8 million loan from EXIM at the start of 2025 as part of its "Make More in America", a bank initiative that aims to strengthen the local supply chain. Reporting by Shivangi lahiri in Bengaluru, Shruti agarwal in Sydney and Melanie Burton in Bengaluru; editing by Jamie Freed
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US and Australia invest $2 billion to advance Alcoa Gallium Project
As part of an extensive critical minerals agreement, signed on Monday to counter China's control over the industry, the United States and Australia extended financial assistance to several Australian firms. The agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese commits the two countries to investing at least $1 billion in each of the next six month's mining and processing projects, and to setting a floor price for essential minerals. This is a move that Western miners have long fought for. The governments will also support a plan announced by U.S. Aluminum producer Alcoa, to build a galium plant in Western Australia alongside its alumina refining facility. Alcoa signed a joint agreement in August with Japan Australia Gallium Associates, a venture between Sojitz Corp and the Japanese government. Alcoa said that after it completes its feasibility study, a vehicle owned jointly by the U.S., Australian and Alcoa governments will enter into a joint venture to build the plant. Parties would contribute capital to a special purpose vehicle, and in return receive gallium at a rate proportional to their interest. Alcoa stated that the plant was expected to produce 100 tons of gallium per year. Alumina is made from gallium, which is an essential mineral for technology. This includes the semiconductor and defense industries. Reg Spencer, Canaccord's mining analyst, said that the move could be a positive one for Australia-listed companies. The Export-Import Bank of the United States announced that it had sent seven letters of interest (LOIs), totaling over $2.2 billion, to advance U.S.-aligned vital minerals projects in Australia. The LOIs have been issued to Arafura Rare Earths and Northern Minerals. These LOIs represent the next step in the process of securing minerals that are vital to American manufacturing, national defense, and other strategic industries. (Reporting from AnshumanTripathy in Bengaluru, and Melanie Burton in Sydney. Writing by PraveenMenon; Editing Jamie Freed).
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WSJ reports that Starboard has taken a stake of nearly 5% in Fluor Construction.
The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake of nearly 5% in the construction company Fluor. Starboard Value plans to seek ways to increase the shares of the company. Fluor shares jumped 6.7% following the release of the report. Stock has fallen by nearly 3% this year. Fluor has an almost 40% stake in small nuclear reactor developer NuScale Power, which has seen a jump in shares this year due to increased demand for data centers and other technologies fueled by the artificial-intelligence boom. Journal reported that Starboard believes that Fluor’s core business has been undervalued on the market in comparison to the value investors attribute to NuScale. According to the report, Fluor's activist investor believes that it should explore all options, including selling its NuScale shares. Starboard believes that Fluor, a company that helps build critical infrastructure in the United States, should also benefit from the new policies of President Donald Trump, which are increasing planned investments. Starboard and Fluor both did not respond immediately when contacted. Fluor reported in August that its second-quarter revenue fell by 6% to $4 billion. This was also below analysts' expectations of $4.55billion. The construction company revised its projected annual adjusted profit per shares downwards to between $1.95 and $2.15 from an earlier projection of $2.25 to $2.75 each. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Mexico City, Juby Babu from Mexico City)
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Officials say that a Russian strike has knocked out electricity in large areas of northern Ukraine
Officials said that a new Russian attack in the border region of Chernihiv, Ukraine, on Monday knocked power out to large areas of the northern part of the country. This included the main town near the decommissioned Chornobyl Nuclear Power Station. Chernihivoblenergo (the local power company) in the area said that the latest attack targeted an energy site but refused to identify it. Yuri Fomichev said that a part of Slavutych in Kyiv Region, located 45 km (28miles) west of Chernobyl, had lost electricity in the incident. The water supply system of the town was switched to reserve power, and heating at essential sites continued uninterrupted. Crews from the emergency services were working to restore power. The head of Kyiv Region also stated that emergency crews are restoring power. There was no immediate response from Russia. As winter draws near, the war in Ukraine has not ceased. More than a half-million people were left without power after a barrage of missiles that hit Kyiv and parts of Ukraine earlier this month. The Russian attacks on Ukraine this month have forced Kyiv to import more gas. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, said on Monday that Ukraine could import gas worth $2 billion this winter from Europe and the United States. Chernihiv is a city located north of Kyiv that has been the target of many attacks. At the weekend, a strike against an energy company knocked out the power for 55,000 people. There were also power outages in other towns of northern Ukraine. Officials in Izium in the northeastern Kharkiv Region said that parts of their city were plunged into darkness. The Prime Minister Yulia svyrydenko discussed Monday the resilience of Ukraine’s energy system with parliament members as part of a newly formed body dedicated to coordination work between the assembly and the President's Office. Ukraine has launched its own long range attacks against Russian energy targets. At least 58 of these attacks have been made on key sites in the last month.
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Steel Dynamics beats quarterly profit estimates on declining scrap raw material costs
Steel Dynamics posted Monday a third-quarter profit that was above Wall Street expectations, thanks to a drop in scrap prices. The U.S. Steelmaker has benefited from the drop in scrap prices. Steel Dynamics exclusively produces steel in electric arc furnaces, and scrap raw material is a vital feedstock. Mark Millett, CEO of the company, said that he expects to see a stronger demand for all our products in 2026, including flat-rolled aluminum. He added that the firm expects a positive impact on performance from its various operating platforms due to the market dynamics. We have noticed some order hesitation from flat-rolled steel customers because of domestic trade actions despite many encouraging demand drivers. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the company's adjusted third-quarter profit of $2.74 a share was higher than analysts' estimates of $2.64. The revenue for the third quarter ended September 30, which was reported by Aatreyee Dasgupta and Anshuman Tripathy in Bengaluru, grew 11.2% from a year earlier to $4.83billion. This exceeded Wall Street's expectations of $4.8billion. Reporting by Aatreyee dasgupta in Bengaluru and Anshuman tripathy; editing by Shreya biswas
Andy Home: A gallium-lens on China's mineral dominance, and how to end it
Since China began restricting the export of exotic metals in August 2023, the price of gallium is on an upward trend.
It is not surprising that China holds a near-monopoly in the global production of gallium, as well as across a wide range of critical materials.
What should we do about the fact that a commodity most people never heard of has reached a 14-year high?
According to the United States Geological Survey, the global production for last year was only 760 metric tonnes. The world market is worth only $550 million, even at the current high prices.
Metal is used in so small quantities that it has no impact on the price of a cell phone or electric vehicle.
If you are in the semiconductor industry, it is important. It's even more important to U.S. defense planners. That's why China selected element 31 as a metal pressure point.
The Multiplier Effect
The economic impact of China's export bans is multiplied by the fact that gallium is used to make so many gadgets.
USGS estimates a suspension of Chinese exports for a year would result in a hit to the U.S. economic system of $3.1 billion.
The semiconductor industry would account for about half of this decrease, while the remaining half will come from downstream industries like computers, printed circuit assemblies and electric vehicles.
China hasn't completely suspended exports but has banned direct sales into the United States. Outbound flows are down since 2023, when dual-use regulations came into effect.
The USGS projections also assumed that gallium prices would increase by more than 2,5 in the event of an export stop.
Gallium prices have more than doubled since July 2023, when they were $350 per kilogram. They are now $725 per kilogram and still increasing.
As more gallium is kept on the Chinese market, the Chinese price falls. Other times, physical arbitrage could close the price gap. But not when China's Ministry of Commerce is guarding the gate.
THE MILITARY ANGLE
Gallium is of even greater importance to U.S. military planners.
The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, was responsible for the development of a compound known as gallium arsenide. This compound is used in precision-guided and radar weapons. More recently, DARPA has been involved with the development of the next-generation semiconductor chip, gallium nitride.
According to The Center for Strategic and International Studies (a non-profit research organization), the latter "revolutionizes modern radar by allowing new modules to track smaller and faster threats, and to be more numerous from a distance nearly doubled."
The U.S. Army is deploying gallium nitride-enhanced Radars in its Lower-Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensors (LTAMDS), which are an integral part Patriot missile defence units, and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
There's likely a lot more we don't even know.
Gallium, like many other critical metals, has a small market but a wide range of applications. Many of these are at the forefront of semiconductor design.
It's not a coincidence that China announced their export controls as a direct response to U.S. sanctions on next-generation chip imports to China.
THE CHINA CHALLENGE
Can the West sever China's grip on gallium?
The solution to the problem is right in front of us, or better yet, in the tailings pool.
Gallium isn't particularly rare on the surface of the Earth, but it only occurs at concentrations high enough to be extracted as a byproduct from other minerals.
China's gallium dominance has increased along with its massive expansion of aluminum capacity. China accounts for 60% global aluminium production and all of that metal requires alumina which is produced from bauxite.
Gallium can be produced by other refineries than China's. Western companies have stopped producing gallium after China took over the market in the first decade of this century.
That's changing.
Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation just announced that they had successfully extracted pure gallium out of a waste stream from Rio's Vaudreuil Alumina Refinery in Quebec. The next step will be to build a pilot plant that can produce 3.5 tons of gallium per year.
METLEN, a Greek aluminium manufacturer, plans to increase its bauxite-and-alumina processing capability to 50 tons annually by 2028. This is one of 47 strategic mineral projects in the European Union.
Two key lessons can be learned from this article for other mineral markets that are being affected by Chinese export restrictions.
First, it is likely that the West already produces many of these materials but has not appreciated their value until now.
Rio Tinto has begun extracting tellurium and scandium at its Kennecott Copper Smelter, Utah, as well as titanium from its operations in Quebec.
The two plants had been in operation for several years before anyone thought it necessary to separate the metals from the waste stream.
Second, it's clear that Western operators have to learn or, in the case gallium, re-learn the processing technologies needed to separate them and refine them.
It will take some time, especially since China restricts the export of this technology in many cases.
The higher prices that result from China's export restrictions are encouraging more and more Western companies back to metallurgy.
The author is a columnist at
(source: Reuters)