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Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 a barrel on Sunday night after the U.S. launched an attack against Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on a Middle East conflict in an escalation as Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84. Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium. Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv. Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions. He said that the direction of oil price will depend on if there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation in conflict, resulting a diminishing risk premium. On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said the country could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second parliament member said that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened. The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world. SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they viewed this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for too long. He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London; editing by Alex Lawler, Clelia Oziel, and Robert Harvey.
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Three dead and dozens injured in Algeria after falling from the upper stand
The Algerian Ministry of Health announced on Sunday that three spectators were killed and over 70 injured when they fell from an upper stand in a stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. The Algerian Ministry of Health said that the Beni Messous University Hospital had received 38 injured patients, and three deaths, in a Facebook statement. "Ben Aknoun Hospital, too, received 27 injured persons, while Bab El Oued Hospital, received 16," it added. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Algerian President, offered his condolences to those injured and wished them a quick recovery. In an earlier Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." The club is yet to make a comment about the deaths. Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling onto the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. Reporting by Chiranjit ojha, Bengaluru; Ahmad El Ghannam, Cairo; Editing and Bernadette baum.
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Bahrain, Kuwait prepare for possible Iran conflict spread
Bahrain and Kuwait -- both home to U.S. military bases -- prepared on Sunday in case the Iran conflict spreads to their territories. Bahrain asked drivers to avoid the main roads, and Kuwait set up shelters within a ministry complex following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuke facilities. U.S. forces attacked Iran's main nuclear sites on Saturday night, and President Donald Trump warned Tehran that it will face even more devastating attacks if the country does not accept peace. Tehran warned that if the United States attacked it, it would target American assets, including U.S. bases in the region. Bahrain is the home of the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet, and Kuwait has several U.S. military bases. Bahrain's interior minister said on X that "in light of recent developments regarding regional security, we urge residents and citizens to only use main roads when absolutely necessary to maintain public health and safety, and to allow relevant authorities to efficiently use the roads." According to the Civil Service Bureau, Bahrain has also instructed 70% of its government employees to continue working from home until further notice on Sundays. The reason given was escalating tensions. The Finance Ministry said that Kuwait has set up shelters at the country's Ministries Complex, an expansive compound of buildings which houses several government departments including the Ministries of Justice and Finance. Bahraini authorities said earlier this week that they have activated a plan national and a civil emergency centre national to prepare for emergencies. They also tested warning sirens throughout the country. The regional media reported that 33 shelters had been set up in the country.
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What is the risk of nuclear contamination from an attack on Iran?
Donald Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear sites were "obliterated", including the Fordow deep-buried facility, in military strikes carried out overnight. The U.S. also joined Israel's attacks on June 13th. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that the U.S. military attacks on Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities posed limited contamination risks. Which Iranian nuclear sites have been hit so far? The U.S. Military struck sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear enrichment sites had been "completely obliterated". These attacks come after Israelis announced attacks on nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan Arak, and Tehran. Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from building a nuke, and the U.S. insists that Tehran will not be allowed such weapons. Iran denies ever seeking nuclear arms. IAEA, the international nuclear watchdog, has reported damages to the uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz and the complex of nuclear facilities at Isfahan including the Uranium Conversion Facility as well as to centrifuge production plants in Karaj and Tehran. Israel has also attacked Arak (also known as Khondab). IAEA reported that Israeli military strikes damaged the nearby heavy water plant and the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor which were still under construction. IAEA stated that it was not in operation and did not contain any nuclear material. Therefore, there were no effects radiological. The heavy-water reactors are capable of producing plutonium that, along with enriched uranium can be used in the production of an atom bomb. What are the risks of these strikes? Before the U.S. airstrikes, experts had said that Israel's attacks posed only limited contamination risks. Darya Dolzikova is a senior researcher at London's think-tank RUSI. She said that attacks on the facilities at the front of the nuclear fuel-cycle - where uranium gets prepared to be used in a reactor -- pose chemical risks, and not radiological ones. UF6, also known as uranium hexafluoride (UF6), is a concern at enrichment plants. She said that when UF6 reacts with the water vapour in air, it creates harmful chemicals. In low wind, it is expected that the material will settle near the facility. In high winds, however, the material may travel further, but also disperse more widely. Underground facilities have a lower risk of hazardous chemicals dispersing. Simon Bennett, the head of the civil safety and protection unit at the University of Leicester, in Britain, stated that the risks to the environment are minimal when subterranean installations are struck because "you are burying nuclear materials in thousands of tons of concrete, rock, and earth". James Acton is the co-director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program. He said that uranium was barely radioactive before it went into a reactor. He added that "the chemical form of uranium is toxic, but it doesn't travel long distances. It's also barely radioactive." He said that attacks on enrichment sites were unlikely to have significant consequences off-site, while opposing Israel's campaign. What about nuclear reactants? A strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor on the Gulf Coast would be of major concern. On June 19, Israel's military announced that it had hit a Bushehr site, but later said the announcement was an error. Israel wants to prevent any nuclear catastrophe. Richard Wakeford is an honorary professor of Epidemiology at the University of Manchester. He said that while the contamination of the area surrounding enrichment plants would "mainly be a chemical issue", the extensive damage of large power reactors was "a different story". He added that radioactive elements could be released into the ocean or through a plume containing volatile materials. Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that an attack on Bushehr could "cause an absolute radiological disaster". Why are Gulf States particularly concerned? The Gulf States' impact on any attack on Bushehr will be worsened if the Gulf waters are contaminated, putting at risk a vital source of desalinated water. A source familiar with the situation said that the Gulf Cooperation Council is on high alert in order to monitor any possible contamination of the environment after the attacks. The source confirmed that there have been no radiological signs so far. She also said the GCC has emergency plans in place for the case of any threat to food and water security in the Gulf. According to authorities, in the United Arab Emirates desalinated drinking water is more than 80%. In Bahrain, 100% of groundwater was reserved for contingency planning. Qatar is 100% dependent on desalinated drinking water. According to the General Authority for Statistics, in Saudi Arabia, which is a larger country with more natural groundwater reserves, 50% of water supplies will be desalinated by 2023. Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have no access to any other coast. While Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE can draw water from more than one sea, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are all crammed along the Gulf shoreline. If a natural catastrophe, an oil spill or even a targeted assault were to disrupt a water desalination facility, hundreds of thousands would lose their access to freshwater instantly, said Nidal Ilal, professor and director of the Water Research Center at New York University Abu Dhabi. He said that coastal desalination plants were particularly vulnerable to regional hazards such as oil spills and possible nuclear contamination.
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In Algeria, one spectator is dead and several others injured after falling from the upper balcony
Media reports on Saturday said that one spectator was killed and others injured when they fell from the upper stands of the stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. MC Alger confirmed that one of its supporters died in an incident at the 5th July Stadium in Algiers. The Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune offered his condolences to the family and wished a quick recovery for those injured. In an Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling into the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. (Reporting by Chiranjit Ojha in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Investors rush to safe havens as oil prices spike after US bombs Iran's nuclear sites
Investors said that a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites could trigger a knee-jerk response in global markets upon their reopening, sending oil costs higher and triggering an exodus to safety. They were assessing how this latest escalation would affect the global economy. The attack announced by Donald Trump via the social media website Truth Social deepens U.S. participation in the Middle East conflict. Investors were considering a variety of market scenarios as they headed into the weekend. They expected that the U.S. involvement would cause a selloff of equities, and possibly a bid for the dollar or other safe-haven investments when trading began. However, they also stated that there was still a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the conflict. Trump described the attack as "successful", but few details were available. He was scheduled to speak later Saturday. Mark Spindel is the chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. He said, "I believe that markets will be initially alarmed and that oil will open higher." "We haven't done any damage assessment yet and it will take time. We're still engaged, even though he described it as "done". What's next? Spindel said. "I believe the uncertainty will blanket the markets as Americans are now exposed everywhere. He added that it would increase volatility and uncertainty, especially in the oil market. Spindel said, however, that there is still time to digest this news before the markets open. He also said that he would be making arrangements to speak to other participants in the market. OIL PRICES AND INFLATION The markets are most concerned about the impact that the Middle East developments could have on the oil price and, therefore, on inflation. An increase in inflation may dampen consumer confidence, and reduce the likelihood of interest rate reductions. Jack Ablin is the chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. He said, "This creates a new and complex layer of risk to which we will have to pay attention." This will have a direct impact on the energy prices, and possibly on inflation. The S&P 500 is little changed after an initial decline when Israel attacked Iran on June 13th. Analysts at Oxford Economics had modeled three scenarios before the U.S. attack Saturday. These included a deescalation of conflict, a shutdown of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "Each scenario has an increasing impact on global oil prices." Oxford stated in the note that the worst case scenario would see global oil prices rise to $130 per barrel by the end this year. This would cause U.S. inflation to reach 6%. The note was published prior to the U.S. strike. "Although a price shock will inevitably reduce consumer spending due to the impact on real incomes. However, the magnitude of the increase in inflation, and the concerns over the possibility of second-round effects, are likely to ruin any chances of rate reductions in the U.S. for this year," Oxford wrote in the report. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group said that oil prices were likely to spike after the announcement. Cox, however, said that he expects prices to level out in a couple of days because the attacks may lead Iran to look for a peace agreement with Israel and the United States. Cox stated that "with this demonstration of strength and the total destruction of its nuclear capability, they have lost all their leverage and are likely to hit the escape button for a peace agreement." Economists warn a sudden rise in oil costs could harm a global economy already stressed by Trump's tariffs. History suggests that any pullbacks in equity prices could be temporary. In the past, when Middle East tensions reached a boiling point, such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the 2019 attacks against Saudi oil facilities the stocks first lagged but quickly recovered and traded higher in the following months. According to Wedbush Securities' and CapIQ Pro's data, the S&P500 averaged a 0.3% drop in the three weeks immediately following conflict. However, it was 2.3% higher two months later. DOLLAR WORSE A escalation of the conflict could have mixed consequences for the U.S. Dollar, which has fallen this year amid concerns over the diminished U.S. exceptionalalism. Analysts said that if the United States directly engages in the Iran-Israel conflict, the dollar may initially benefit from an increase in safety bid. "Are we seeing a flight towards safety?" Steve Sosnick is the chief market strategist of IBKR, Greenwich in Connecticut. It's difficult to imagine that stocks will not respond negatively, but the question is by how much. It depends on Iranian reactions and whether oil prices spike."
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The key facilities of Iran's nuclear program
Donald Trump, President of the United States, said that on Saturday, U.S. forces had carried out a "very succesful attack" against nuclear sites in Iran. This included a facility located deep within a mountain in Fordow, South of Tehran. Israel has struck Iranian nuclear sites after launching its attacks on Iran in June. These include Natanz, the centre of Iran's uranium-enrichment programme, as well as Khondab, an incomplete heavy-water research reactor. Here are some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities. Where are Iran's nuclear facilities? The Iranian nuclear programme is spread out over many different locations. Although the threat of Israeli aerial strikes has been looming for decades, only a few of the sites are underground. IRAN HAS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYSTEM? The United States, as well as the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, believe that Iran had a secret and coordinated nuclear weapons program which it stopped in 2003. The Islamic Republic has denied ever possessing or planning one. Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities as part of a 2015 agreement with world powers. In exchange, the deal lifted international sanctions. The pact collapsed after Trump, during his first term in office, pulled out the United States in 2018. Tehran began to abandon the restrictions the following year. IS IRAN INCREASING ITS URANIUM ENRICHMENT? Yes. Since the deal fell apart, Iran has expanded its uranium-enrichment programme. The "breakout time", or the amount of time needed to produce weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear weapon is now days or a little more than one week instead of at least a full year as it was under the 2015 agreement. It would take more time to actually make a bomb using that material. The exact time is not known and the debate continues. Iran enriches uranium up to 60% fissile purity, which is close to 90% weapons grade, at two locations. In theory, it has enough material to make six bombs if enriched any further. NATANZ Complex at the centre of Iran's nuclear enrichment program, located on a plain bordering mountains south of Tehran in the Shi'ite holy city of Qom. Natanz is home to two enrichment facilities: the huge, underground Fuel Enrichment Plant as well as the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. In 2002, an exiled Iranian group revealed that Iran was building secretly Natanz. This sparked a diplomatic standoff with the West over Iran's nuclear intentions. The standoff continues to this day. The FEP is a facility designed for commercial enrichment, with a capacity of 50,000 centrifuges. Around 16,000 centrifuges had been installed, and 13,000 were in use, refining the uranium up to 5% purity. The FEP is described by diplomats who are familiar with Natanz as being three floors underground. It has been long debated how much damage Israeli aircraft could cause to the building. Other means of damage have been used to destroy centrifuges in the FEP, including an explosion that occurred and a power outage in April 2021 which Iran claimed was an Israeli attack. The PFEP above ground only houses hundreds of centrifuges, but Iran enriches up to 60% purity in this area. FORDOW Fordow, on the other side of Qom is a site for enrichment dug into the mountain. It's probably better protected against potential bombardment as the FEP. Trump tweeted on social media that "Fordow has been destroyed." Iran was not allowed to enrich in Fordow under the 2015 agreement with major powers. The facility was equipped with around 2,000 centrifuges, most of which were advanced IR-6 machines. Of these, up to 350 of them could enrich up to 60%. In 2009, the United States announced that Iran had secretly built Fordow for many years without informing the IAEA. Barack Obama, then-President of the United States, said that "the size and configuration is inconsistent with a peace programme." ISFAHAN Iran's second-largest city, Isfahan has a major nuclear technology center on its outskirts. The facility includes the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant as well as the Uranium Conversion Facility that converts uranium to uranium Hexafluoride, which is then fed into centrifuges. Diplomats claim that Iran stores uranium enriched at Isfahan. There is equipment at Isfahan to make uranium metal, a process that is particularly proliferation-sensitive since it can be used to devise the core of a nuclear bomb. Isfahan will be a new location for 2022, according to the IAEA. It has machines that can make centrifuge components. KHONDAB Iran has a heavy-water reactor that is partially constructed. It was originally named Arak, and it's now called Khondab. Heavy-water research reactors are a risk to nuclear proliferation because they produce plutonium easily, which can be used, just like enriched Uranium, as the core for an atomic weapon. The 2015 agreement saw construction halted and the core of the reactor removed, then filled with concrete, rendering it useless. The reactor would be redesigned to "minimize the production of Plutonium and to not produce weapon-grade Plutonium during normal operation". Iran told the IAEA it intended to begin operating the reactor by 2026. TEHRAN RESERVE CENTRE The Iranian nuclear research facilities at Tehran include a reactor for research. BUSHEHR The only nuclear power station in Iran, located on the Gulf Coast, uses Russian fuel, which Russia takes back after it has been used, reducing proliferation risks.
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Sources say that Israel wants to take swift action against Iran with the split US administration
Two sources say that Israeli officials told the Trump administration that they did not want to wait for Iran to come to a deal in two weeks to dismantle the key parts of their nuclear program. Israel could also act on its own before the deadline expires, amid ongoing debates within Trump's team over whether the U.S. is involved. Two sources with knowledge of the issue said that Israel expressed its concerns to Trump Administration officials in a phone call they described as being tense on Thursday. Sources who spoke under condition of anonymity said that Israeli officials did not want to wait for the two weeks set by U.S. president Donald Trump on Thursday in order to decide whether the U.S. would get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. According to a source in the security industry, Israeli participants included Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Chief of Military Staff Eyal Zmir. Sources claim that Israel believes it has a short window of time to act against Fordow, which is the crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. has the only bunker-busting weapons powerful enough to reach this facility that is buried into a mountain. Reports on Saturday indicated that the United States was moving B-2 Bombers to Guam in the Pacific, confirming the possibility of an attack by the U.S. The B-2 is capable of carrying America's 30,000 pound GBU57 Massive Penetrator designed to destroy deep-underground targets, like the one in Fordow. Person familiar with the situation in Washington said that Israel had communicated to the U.S. government that it believed Trump's window up to two weeks was too long and more urgent action was needed. The person didn't say if the Israelis raised this issue during the high-level phone call. Sources claim that during the call Vice President JDVance was adamant about the U.S. not being directly involved, and suggested the Israelis would drag the country into a war. A security source said that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was also on the call. An official at the White House strongly disagreed with the description of Vance's remarks in the phone call, but refused to elaborate. The official spoke on condition of anonymity and said that the Vice President had not made this comment during the phone call. The Jerusalem Post had reported earlier that there was a telephone call on Thursday. Some prominent members of Trump's base have urged him to avoid a Middle East conflict. Vance, who has often criticized the past U.S. participation in conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan but recently defended Trump from Republican critics, who urge the administration not to get involved in the Iran conflict. Other Republicans, such as Trump ally Lindsey Graham from South Carolina, expressed their hope that Trump would help Israel destroy Iran's nuclear programme. Trump, who ran on a campaign promise to keep America out of "stupid wars" abroad, has at times seemed to be unsure whether he should join Israel's attack on Iran, or focus diplomatic efforts on ending Tehran's nuclear programme. His rhetoric has grown more aggressive in recent days. Iran insists its nuclear program only has peaceful purposes. A request for a comment from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office was not responded to immediately. The Iranian mission at the United Nations did not respond immediately either. Strike on Fordow Increasingly Likely Netanyahu has publicly stated that he does not rule out Israel attacking Fordow on its own, but officials haven't provided any specifics about how this would be accomplished. Four sources have said that it's more likely than not that Israel will launch an independent military operation. Two sources said that the Israeli air superiority makes a solo military operation more likely, but still risky. One source said that Israel believes it has the momentum, but is limited in time due to the cost of the war. Source: "I don't think they will wait much longer." Uncertainty exists as to whether such an attack would be conducted by bombing or ground forces. Two sources stated that Israel could do more damage to the site than destroy it. One source, who declined to provide further details, suggested that this could mean concentrating on the destruction of what is within the site, rather than the actual site. Analysts have suggested that Israel may use special forces to blow up Fordow from the inside. A source with knowledge of the situation said that another scenario under consideration would be to launch a series munitions rapidly in order to break through the fortified area, similar to the way the Israeli military killed Hezbollah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in the past year. The source claimed that a special forces incursion could follow a strike of this nature. Israel may not have munitions strong enough to penetrate a fortified installation. Many people believe that U.S. involvement is needed to increase the chances of success. Even with the combined firepower of a U.S. and Israeli military operation, experts in the military and nuclear field believe that a military action would only temporarily set back a programme the West fears already aims to produce atom bombs someday, though Iran denies this. (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee, Maayan Loubell, Alexander Cornwell, Samia Nakhoul, and Emily Rose. Additional reporting and editing by Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, and Maayan Nakhoul in Washington, and Maayan Lulbell in Jerusalem.
Trump's trade tariffs and threats
The global trade war sparked by U.S. president Donald Trump has intensified. He increased tariffs against China, while reversing sweeping duties on most trading partners. This stoked fears of a global recession, sent jitters through global financial markets, and drew condemnation from world leaders.
Trump announced tariffs on imports of semiconductors, which could take effect this week. He also hinted that some companies within the sector might be exempted.
The word "move" means to move.
Exclusion of Smartphones and Computers
The impact of his reciprocal tariffs against China will likely be short-lived.
Trump announced on Wednesday that he would be announcing a new policy.
Temporary reprieve
Tariffs on Chinese Imports are now effectively 145%.
The first initial is
Tariffs starting at 10%
On April 5, a ban on imports from numerous countries was imposed at U.S. ports, airports and Customs.
While Trump's tariff threat has changed over time, other nations and businesses are unsure of what will happen next, and consumer and business confidence is shaken.
Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade.
BROAD TARIFFS
Trump's vision is based on a gradual roll-out of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods.
Trump's economics team was tasked with developing plans to impose reciprocal tariffs against every country that taxes U.S. Imports. They also had to address non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their price.
Trump said that the reciprocal tariffs were a response to the barriers placed on U.S. products. Administration officials, however, stated that the tariffs will create manufacturing jobs in the United States and open export markets abroad.
In recent decades, tariffs have been reduced to a small fraction of U.S. taxes. Economists claim that Trump's policies are inflationary, as businesses who import goods and pay tariffs will pass on the additional costs to consumers.
Specific COUNTRIES
Trump's tariff proposal targets several key trading partners.
MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union took effect on 4 March as a response to migration and fentanyl.
Tariffs were imposed on energy imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as on the majority of goods imported. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto components within the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products.
Canada retaliated with a 25% tariff on C$30 billion (21,13 billion dollars) of U.S. imported goods, including oranges juice, peanuts butter, beer and coffee, as well as appliances, motorcycles, and appliances.
The Canadian government said that it will impose additional duties on C$125billion of U.S. products if Trump's Tariffs are still in effect in 21 days. This could include vehicles, steel and aircraft, as well as beef and pork.
U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. officials could still work out a partial solution with the two neighboring countries, and added that they need to do more in the fentanyl arena.
Canada, which is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States (C$29.8billion), announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports worth C$29.8billion ($20billion) as a response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.
The two countries are exempted from the "Liberation Day", announced on April 2 tariffs, but they face a separate 25% tariff on auto imports.
Canada has asked the WTO to consult with the U.S. about its import duties on steel and aluminum products as well as levies placed on Canadian cars and parts.
CHINA: Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. effective February 4, after repeatedly warning Beijing that it was not taking enough measures to stop the flow of illicit drug into the U.S.
On March 4, he imposed another 10% tariff on Chinese products.
China announced additional tariffs between 10% and 15% on some U.S. exports starting March 10, as well as a number of new restrictions for certain U.S. entities. It then complained to the WTO about the U.S. Tariffs.
Trump increased the tariffs on China by 34% in April, making the total to 54%. China responded with a 34% duty on all U.S. products.
Trump replied that the U.S. will impose a 50% additional tariff on China if Beijing doesn't withdraw its retaliatory duties on the U.S. and said, "all discussions with China regarding their requested meetings with the us will be terminated."
Washington's new round of tariffs raised duties on China to 145%. Beijing then increased levies against U.S. products by 125% as a result.
Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses against the U.S. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand that they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S.
Steel, aluminum and cars will be subject to import tariffs of 25%, while other goods will face tariffs of up to 20%, starting April 9. Pharmaceuticals are among the most vulnerable industries, since U.S. companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and others have large facilities in Ireland. Ireland is also a leading exporter of medical equipment.
The European Union announced on April 7 that it had offered to offer a "zero for zero" tariff deal in order to avoid a trade conflict. EU ministers agreed to give priority to negotiations, while retaliating with targeted countermeasures the following week.
In response to Trump's metals duties, the EU announced on March 12 that it would begin imposing counter-tariffs next month on goods worth 26 billion euros (28 billion dollars) from the United States. As a result of the U.S. auto and wider tariffs, the EU is expected to release a more comprehensive package of countermeasures at the end of April.
Trump announced on March 13 that he would slap 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits as a response to EU plans to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, among other products.
PRODUCTS
AUTOS: Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported cars and light truck on March 26. The 25% tax would be added to previous duties on imported finished vehicles beginning on April 3.
Trump's directive includes temporary exemptions for auto components that comply with the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term.
The tariffs will apply to other major imports of automotive parts. These are identified by Trump as "engines, engine parts, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical component" and they will be imposed on a specific date, which is to be announced in the Federal Register, but no later than "May 3, 2025."
Metals: On March 12th, Trump raised tariffs for all imports of steel and aluminum to 25% and extended duties to hundreds downstream products ranging from nuts and bolts, to bulldozers blades, to soda cans.
More than half of the U.S.'s aluminum and steel imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
Trump ordered on February 25, a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods.
Just over half of the refined copper that America consumes every year is produced domestically.
SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25% or higher" and increase substantially over the course a year. He did not specify when they will be implemented.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract chipmaker in the world, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. In 2024, it will generate 70% of its revenues from North American clients.
LUMBER: On March 1, Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more tariffs to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber and 25% tariffs for all Canadian and Mexican products.
ALCOHOL: Trump threatened on March 13 to slap 200% tariffs on wine, cognac, and other alcohol imported from Europe in response to an EU plan to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, and other products -- which is itself a retaliation for Trump's 25% tariffs that went into effect on steel and aluminium imports the day before.
PHARMACEUTICALS - While Trump's "Liberation Day' announcement spared the pharmaceutical sector from reciprocal duties, the president said that duties were "under review." He warned that the tariffs could be "at a new level you haven't seen before."
Trump
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Smartphones, computers, and other electronics, largely imported from China, are exempt from high tariffs. This is a relief for major technology companies such as Apple, Dell Technologies, and other importers.
This move exempts certain electronics from Trump's baseline 10% tariffs on most goods imported from countries other than China.
(source: Reuters)