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Thermax, an Indian industrial machine manufacturer, misses its profit forecasts due to weak demand
Thermax, an Indian industrial machine manufacturer, reported a fourth-quarter profit that was below expectations Friday. This was due to a weaker demand for its machines and increased raw material costs. In recent quarters, capital goods companies that rely heavily on government orders have seen their inflows slow down. Analysts report that government capex was subdued in most segments during the quarter under review. Thermax’s order book dropped by 8%, to 21,19 billion rupees. A spike in raw material costs increased the company’s expenses by 11%. The net profit of the industrial machine manufacturer rose by 8%, to 2,066 billion rupees (US$24 million), in the quarter ending March 31. It was 1.9 billion rupees last year. LSEG data shows that analysts had predicted a profit of 2,08 billion rupees. Thermax revenue for the quarter ended March grew by about 12%, to 30,85 billion rupees. This was below analyst expectations of 31,22 billion rupees. Thermax’s industrial products division saw a revenue increase of 18.5% while the division that installs bio-CNG power plants and other energy sources grew by 4%. In a press release, the company said that 660 million rupees of costs related to its bio-CNG project had affected the quarterly results. Peer ABB India announced higher profits for the first quarter on Friday, citing steady demand for its products. Reporting by Aleef Jhan in Bengaluru, editing by Sahal Muhammad.
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Spain's LNG imports to the US are on the rise, representing 35% of total gas supply
Data released on Friday showed that imports of US LNG accounted for 35% of Spain’s total gas imports during the first four month of this year, up from just under 20% one year earlier. Meanwhile, imports of Russian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) declined. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe has imported more superchilled gas from the U.S. According to Enagas, the Spanish gas grid operator, in the first four month of this year, Spain imported 45,932 GWh of gas equivalent from the U.S. This compares with 24,885GWh one year ago. The U.S. is now the primary gas supplier for Spain. This replaces Algeria, which primarily supplies liquefied natural gas to Spain and pumps it directly through pipelines. Enagas reported that the overall Spanish gas demand fell by 3%. The U.S. gas liquefied also replaced the gas liquefied sent from Russia. In the first four month of this year, the share of Russian gas in Spain's total gas imports fell from 22.4% to 13.3%. (Reporting and editing by Inti landauro, Louise Heavens and Joao Manuel Mauicio from Gdansk)
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Focus on tighter supply in the near future as copper prices remain steady before US-China trade negotiations
The price of copper was stable on Friday, ahead of the U.S.-China Trade Talks. The market's focus on tighter supply near-term is reflected by the premium that nearby contracts have over those further away, which has reached a 2-1/2-year-high. In official open-outcry trade, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), remained unchanged at $9 432 per metric. As representatives prepared for the weekend's talks, U.S. president Donald Trump said that tariffs of 80% on Chinese goods "seemed right". This is as representatives prepare to stop a trade conflict between two of the largest economies in the world which threatens to harm global metals demand. The trade spat, and an investigation in Washington into whether or not to impose new tariffs on copper imports has reduced the availability of the metal on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME by attracting it more into COMEX owned warehouses. . Natalie Scott-Gray is a senior metals analyst with StoneX. She said: "The tightening of copper fundamentals can be seen in the widening of backwardations on near-month contracts for LME and SHFE." She added that this tightening is only temporary and won't offset the larger implications of an ongoing U.S.-China Trade War. Copper inventories in SHFE monitored warehouses increased as outflows from the U.S. coincided seasonal demand in China. In recent weeks, the number of people who have died has fallen faster than expected. The SHFE copper contract for June is now worth more than the SHFE copper contract for October, despite the fact that these stocks have fallen by 9.6% in the past week. They are also down 70% from the end of February. The spread between the LME cash price and the three-month contract of copper on the LME The last time it was at a premium, $49 per ton, this was the highest price since November 2022. The price has risen from a discount in early April of $63 as the stocks at LME registered warehouses continue to be depleted. Yangshan copper premium - a measure of robust import demand for metals in China's top metals consumer - The price of a ton is now $102, the highest level since December 2023, compared with $35 at the end of February. Imports of copper concentrate from China reached a new record in April due to an increase in domestic copper smelting capacities. Meanwhile, imports of unwrought copper were stable despite high shipments into the U.S. LME aluminium was unchanged at $2,412 per ton. Zinc rose 1% to 2,645, lead increased 1.7% to 1,978, nickel was up by 0.5% to $15.615, and tin was down 0.7% to $30,650. Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Polina Devlatt in London. Vijay Kishore edited the story; David Evans was responsible for editing.
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Andy Home: A gallium-lens on China's mineral dominance, and how to end it
Since China began restricting the export of exotic metals in August 2023, the price of gallium is on an upward trend. It is not surprising that China holds a near-monopoly in the global production of gallium, as well as across a wide range of critical materials. What should we do about the fact that a commodity most people never heard of has reached a 14-year high? According to the United States Geological Survey, the global production for last year was only 760 metric tonnes. The world market is worth only $550 million, even at the current high prices. Metal is used in so small quantities that it has no impact on the price of a cell phone or electric vehicle. If you are in the semiconductor industry, it is important. It's even more important to U.S. defense planners. That's why China selected element 31 as a metal pressure point. The Multiplier Effect The economic impact of China's export bans is multiplied by the fact that gallium is used to make so many gadgets. USGS estimates a suspension of Chinese exports for a year would result in a hit to the U.S. economic system of $3.1 billion. The semiconductor industry would account for about half of this decrease, while the remaining half will come from downstream industries like computers, printed circuit assemblies and electric vehicles. China hasn't completely suspended exports but has banned direct sales into the United States. Outbound flows are down since 2023, when dual-use regulations came into effect. The USGS projections also assumed that gallium prices would increase by more than 2,5 in the event of an export stop. Gallium prices have more than doubled since July 2023, when they were $350 per kilogram. They are now $725 per kilogram and still increasing. As more gallium is kept on the Chinese market, the Chinese price falls. Other times, physical arbitrage could close the price gap. But not when China's Ministry of Commerce is guarding the gate. THE MILITARY ANGLE Gallium is of even greater importance to U.S. military planners. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, was responsible for the development of a compound known as gallium arsenide. This compound is used in precision-guided and radar weapons. More recently, DARPA has been involved with the development of the next-generation semiconductor chip, gallium nitride. According to The Center for Strategic and International Studies (a non-profit research organization), the latter "revolutionizes modern radar by allowing new modules to track smaller and faster threats, and to be more numerous from a distance nearly doubled." The U.S. Army is deploying gallium nitride-enhanced Radars in its Lower-Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensors (LTAMDS), which are an integral part Patriot missile defence units, and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. There's likely a lot more we don't even know. Gallium, like many other critical metals, has a small market but a wide range of applications. Many of these are at the forefront of semiconductor design. It's not a coincidence that China announced their export controls as a direct response to U.S. sanctions on next-generation chip imports to China. THE CHINA CHALLENGE Can the West sever China's grip on gallium? The solution to the problem is right in front of us, or better yet, in the tailings pool. Gallium isn't particularly rare on the surface of the Earth, but it only occurs at concentrations high enough to be extracted as a byproduct from other minerals. China's gallium dominance has increased along with its massive expansion of aluminum capacity. China accounts for 60% global aluminium production and all of that metal requires alumina which is produced from bauxite. Gallium can be produced by other refineries than China's. Western companies have stopped producing gallium after China took over the market in the first decade of this century. That's changing. Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation just announced that they had successfully extracted pure gallium out of a waste stream from Rio's Vaudreuil Alumina Refinery in Quebec. The next step will be to build a pilot plant that can produce 3.5 tons of gallium per year. METLEN, a Greek aluminium manufacturer, plans to increase its bauxite-and-alumina processing capability to 50 tons annually by 2028. This is one of 47 strategic mineral projects in the European Union. Two key lessons can be learned from this article for other mineral markets that are being affected by Chinese export restrictions. First, it is likely that the West already produces many of these materials but has not appreciated their value until now. Rio Tinto has begun extracting tellurium and scandium at its Kennecott Copper Smelter, Utah, as well as titanium from its operations in Quebec. The two plants had been in operation for several years before anyone thought it necessary to separate the metals from the waste stream. Second, it's clear that Western operators have to learn or, in the case gallium, re-learn the processing technologies needed to separate them and refine them. It will take some time, especially since China restricts the export of this technology in many cases. The higher prices that result from China's export restrictions are encouraging more and more Western companies back to metallurgy. The author is a columnist at
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Japan's SMBC will take 20% of India's Yes Bank
SumitomoMitsui Banking Corp. (SMBC), a Japanese lender, has signed a definitive deal to acquire a 20% stake of Indian private lender Yes Bank. This is the largest cross border merger and acquisition in India's finance sector. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group released a statement saying that the total value of this deal is 134.8 billion yen ($1.58 billion), which includes SMBC purchasing shares from eight current shareholders. SMBC is a subsidiary of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and the second largest bank in Japan. Cross-border banking deals are rare in Indian banks due to restrictions on ownership, capital requirements and the state's dominance of the sector. The last major deal was a takeover by Singapore's DBS Group of the troubled Lakshmi Vilas Bank in 2020. SMBC’s purchase of a stake in Yes Bank will make the bank the largest shareholder. It is also the latest overseas acquisition of a Japanese financial organization as it looks to find new growth sources after years of low interest rates and a shrinking population at home. Nomura, the investment bank, acquired Macquarie Group’s U.S. public asset management business and its European counterpart for $1.8 billion last month. In December of 2012 Nippon Life Insurance became a fully-owned subsidiary of Bermuda-based Resolution Life for approximately $8.2 billion. Yes Bank announced in a filing to the stock exchange that SMBC would acquire a stake of 13.19% from State Bank of India (also its largest shareholder) and an aggregate of 6,81% from Axis Bank Bandhan Bank Federal Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank IDFC First Bank Limited Kotak Mahindra Bank. SBI owns a 24 percent stake in Yes Bank as a result the restructuring led by the regulator in March 2020. Together, ICICI Bank (ICICI Bank), HDFC Bank (HDFC Bank), Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak Mahindra Bank), Axis Bank, and Life Insurance Corporation of India hold 11.34% of Yes Bank. Yes Bank stated that the transaction is subjected to approvals by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Competition Commission of India (CCI) and the shareholders of the Bank. Prashant Kumar, CEO of SMBC, said that the investment was "a pivotal step for our next phase in growth". Yes Bank reported that JPMorgan and Jefferies were the financial advisors for SMBC. This week, it was reported that SMBC had reached an agreement with Yes Bank on the acquisition of a stake. The central bank had also verbally approved this deal. The shares of Yes Bank have gained nearly 10% this year. $1 = 85.3990 Indian rupees (Reporting and editing by David Goodwin and David Evans in Tokyo and Siddhi Nyak in Mumbai)
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UK's National Statistician Resigns Due to Ill Health
The British Statistics Authority announced on Friday that Ian Diamond had resigned due to health problems. Emma Rourke will take his place until longer-term arrangements are made. Diamond stated in a press release that he had made the difficult decision to step down from the position of national statistician due to his ongoing health problems. He felt that now was the time for someone else to take over the mantle. Diamond's resignation is at a challenging time for the Office for National Statistics. The Office has been criticized for its poor quality labour market statistics, which provide crucial information for policymakers in the government and Bank of England. Last month, the UK's statistic regulator stated that other countries did not have the same problem. It also told the ONS to concentrate its limited resources on numbers of the highest importance. The ONS has been the subject of a government inquiry. (Reporting and writing by William James; editing by Andy Bruce, Kate Holton, and Sam Tabahriti)
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China launches campaign against critical mineral smuggling
China launched a special crackdown on the smuggling strategic minerals. Beijing is seeking to enforce its export restrictions on metals used for industries from defence to clean power. According to a Friday statement by the Ministry of Commerce, since China has imposed export controls on metals like gallium, germanium and antimony as well as tungsten, some overseas companies have "colluded" with domestic lawbreakers to avoid the restrictions. The campaign was announced during a conference held in Shenzhen. It urges departments of the government to focus on typical evasion techniques such as false reporting and concealment, smuggling and trans-shipment via third countries. In March, Hong Kong authorities seized an antimony cargo under an ordinance which can be applied to exports of controlled items that do not have a license. The seizure was not explained. Last year, China exported 3.9 millions kg of antimony, both wrought and unwrought. However, since September 2009 when export controls were implemented the shipments have almost completely stopped. According to Chinese customs, as of early April the only export had been a 20,000 kg cargo sent to Japan in January. (Reporting and editing by Beijing Newsroom)
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Sibanye increases Finland lithium project estimate to $880 Million
Sibanye Stillwater announced on Friday that it has increased the estimated cost of its Keliber Lithium project in Finland to 783 millions euros ($880,000,000), mainly because of additional regulatory requirements and a change to the scope. The Johannesburg-based firm owns 79.8% the Keliber Project, which will produce at least 15,000 metric tonnes of battery-grade Lithium annually for 16 years starting in 2026. Sibanye stated in an update that the revised total capital for development or construction of the project up to the hot commissioning phase of the refinery has increased from 783 million to 116 million euro. Sibanye said that a total of 508 millions of euros would have been spent by the end March 2025 on the project. The Keliber project's capital expenditure forecast has been raised to 300 million Euros from 215 millions euros. Sibanye announced in August that it had obtained 500 million Euros of debt financing, partially funded by the European Investment Bank to bring the Keliber Project into production starting 2026. Sibanye stated that construction of the project was "well advanced" and the refinery would be operational in the first quarter 2026. Sibanye has recently expanded its portfolio, adding metals like lithium to the mix. These metals are crucial in developing clean energy technologies, as part of a global push to combat climate change.
Trump's trade tariffs and threats
The global trade war sparked by U.S. president Donald Trump has intensified. He increased tariffs against China, while reversing sweeping duties on most trading partners. This stoked fears of a global recession, sent jitters through global financial markets, and drew condemnation from world leaders.
Trump announced tariffs on imports of semiconductors, which could take effect this week. He also hinted that some companies within the sector might be exempted.
The word "move" means to move.
Exclusion of Smartphones and Computers
The impact of his reciprocal tariffs against China will likely be short-lived.
Trump announced on Wednesday that he would be announcing a new policy.
Temporary reprieve
Tariffs on Chinese Imports are now effectively 145%.
The first initial is
Tariffs starting at 10%
On April 5, a ban on imports from numerous countries was imposed at U.S. ports, airports and Customs.
While Trump's tariff threat has changed over time, other nations and businesses are unsure of what will happen next, and consumer and business confidence is shaken.
Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade.
BROAD TARIFFS
Trump's vision is based on a gradual roll-out of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods.
Trump's economics team was tasked with developing plans to impose reciprocal tariffs against every country that taxes U.S. Imports. They also had to address non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their price.
Trump said that the reciprocal tariffs were a response to the barriers placed on U.S. products. Administration officials, however, stated that the tariffs will create manufacturing jobs in the United States and open export markets abroad.
In recent decades, tariffs have been reduced to a small fraction of U.S. taxes. Economists claim that Trump's policies are inflationary, as businesses who import goods and pay tariffs will pass on the additional costs to consumers.
Specific COUNTRIES
Trump's tariff proposal targets several key trading partners.
MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union took effect on 4 March as a response to migration and fentanyl.
Tariffs were imposed on energy imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as on the majority of goods imported. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto components within the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products.
Canada retaliated with a 25% tariff on C$30 billion (21,13 billion dollars) of U.S. imported goods, including oranges juice, peanuts butter, beer and coffee, as well as appliances, motorcycles, and appliances.
The Canadian government said that it will impose additional duties on C$125billion of U.S. products if Trump's Tariffs are still in effect in 21 days. This could include vehicles, steel and aircraft, as well as beef and pork.
U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. officials could still work out a partial solution with the two neighboring countries, and added that they need to do more in the fentanyl arena.
Canada, which is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States (C$29.8billion), announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports worth C$29.8billion ($20billion) as a response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.
The two countries are exempted from the "Liberation Day", announced on April 2 tariffs, but they face a separate 25% tariff on auto imports.
Canada has asked the WTO to consult with the U.S. about its import duties on steel and aluminum products as well as levies placed on Canadian cars and parts.
CHINA: Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. effective February 4, after repeatedly warning Beijing that it was not taking enough measures to stop the flow of illicit drug into the U.S.
On March 4, he imposed another 10% tariff on Chinese products.
China announced additional tariffs between 10% and 15% on some U.S. exports starting March 10, as well as a number of new restrictions for certain U.S. entities. It then complained to the WTO about the U.S. Tariffs.
Trump increased the tariffs on China by 34% in April, making the total to 54%. China responded with a 34% duty on all U.S. products.
Trump replied that the U.S. will impose a 50% additional tariff on China if Beijing doesn't withdraw its retaliatory duties on the U.S. and said, "all discussions with China regarding their requested meetings with the us will be terminated."
Washington's new round of tariffs raised duties on China to 145%. Beijing then increased levies against U.S. products by 125% as a result.
Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses against the U.S. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand that they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S.
Steel, aluminum and cars will be subject to import tariffs of 25%, while other goods will face tariffs of up to 20%, starting April 9. Pharmaceuticals are among the most vulnerable industries, since U.S. companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and others have large facilities in Ireland. Ireland is also a leading exporter of medical equipment.
The European Union announced on April 7 that it had offered to offer a "zero for zero" tariff deal in order to avoid a trade conflict. EU ministers agreed to give priority to negotiations, while retaliating with targeted countermeasures the following week.
In response to Trump's metals duties, the EU announced on March 12 that it would begin imposing counter-tariffs next month on goods worth 26 billion euros (28 billion dollars) from the United States. As a result of the U.S. auto and wider tariffs, the EU is expected to release a more comprehensive package of countermeasures at the end of April.
Trump announced on March 13 that he would slap 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits as a response to EU plans to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, among other products.
PRODUCTS
AUTOS: Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported cars and light truck on March 26. The 25% tax would be added to previous duties on imported finished vehicles beginning on April 3.
Trump's directive includes temporary exemptions for auto components that comply with the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term.
The tariffs will apply to other major imports of automotive parts. These are identified by Trump as "engines, engine parts, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical component" and they will be imposed on a specific date, which is to be announced in the Federal Register, but no later than "May 3, 2025."
Metals: On March 12th, Trump raised tariffs for all imports of steel and aluminum to 25% and extended duties to hundreds downstream products ranging from nuts and bolts, to bulldozers blades, to soda cans.
More than half of the U.S.'s aluminum and steel imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
Trump ordered on February 25, a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods.
Just over half of the refined copper that America consumes every year is produced domestically.
SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25% or higher" and increase substantially over the course a year. He did not specify when they will be implemented.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract chipmaker in the world, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. In 2024, it will generate 70% of its revenues from North American clients.
LUMBER: On March 1, Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more tariffs to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber and 25% tariffs for all Canadian and Mexican products.
ALCOHOL: Trump threatened on March 13 to slap 200% tariffs on wine, cognac, and other alcohol imported from Europe in response to an EU plan to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, and other products -- which is itself a retaliation for Trump's 25% tariffs that went into effect on steel and aluminium imports the day before.
PHARMACEUTICALS - While Trump's "Liberation Day' announcement spared the pharmaceutical sector from reciprocal duties, the president said that duties were "under review." He warned that the tariffs could be "at a new level you haven't seen before."
Trump
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Smartphones, computers, and other electronics, largely imported from China, are exempt from high tariffs. This is a relief for major technology companies such as Apple, Dell Technologies, and other importers.
This move exempts certain electronics from Trump's baseline 10% tariffs on most goods imported from countries other than China.
(source: Reuters)