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Russell: China's Q1 imports of key commodities were weak, but outlook is mixed.

Russell: China's Q1 imports of key commodities were weak, but outlook is mixed.

China's imports were low in the first quarter. The challenge is to determine whether this was due to temporary factors, or a deeper economic malaise.

In the first quarter of 2025, the four biggest commodity imports - crude oil, coal, iron ore and copper - all fell compared to 2024.

The soft imports can be explained by the fact that the second largest economy in the world is still trying to gain momentum for economic growth. This task is made more difficult by the trade war escalating by U.S. president Donald Trump.

This ignores a number of factors that are unique to each commodity.

Consider crude oil as an example. Customs data released Monday showed that imports in the first quarter were 135,25 million metric tonnes, or 10.97 million barrels a day. This is a 1.5% decrease from the same time last year.

On the surface, this seems like a poor result. Crude imports certainly struggled in January and Febraury.

Arrivals roared to life in March with a rise of 4.8% and reached 12.1 million bpd. This is the highest level since August 2023.

It is unclear whether the increase in imports in March was due to an improvement in fuel demand or if it was driven by temporary factors.

It is more likely that Chinese refiners purchased as many cargoes as possible of Iranian and Russian oil before the new U.S. sanction on these two countries' oil exports took effect.

Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimated that China's imports of Iranian oil in March were 1.37 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 746 000 bpd and the highest since October.

Kpler estimated that seaborne imports to Russia reached 1.25 million bpd. This is up from 760,000 in February, and the highest since November of last year.

China imports pipelines from Russia at a rate of just under 1,000,000 bpd.

The crude oil market is generally weak, and the strength seen in March was likely due to the United States' actual and anticipated measures.

WEATHER HITS

Imports of iron ore fell to 93.97 millions tons in March from 94.21 millions tons in February, and 6.7% lower than the March level last year.

Arrivals of key steel raw materials for the first quarter were 285.31 millions tons, a 7.8% decline from the same period last year.

The weather disruptions in Australia, the country that supplies two-thirds China's total iron ore imports, were a major factor in the decline in iron ore prices.

Exports of Australian iron ore to China fell to 50.5 millions tons in February, their lowest level in five years.

The Chinese imports for April could be higher because many of the February-loading shipments arrived in March.

Imports of coal of all grades were 114.85 millions tons in the first three months, down by 0.9% compared to the same period last year.

Weather-related delays also affected shipments of iron ore from Australia. Australia is China's second largest supplier, after Indonesia.

Australia's exports of goods to China fell to a two-year record low in February, at 3.74 million tonnes. Although they rose to 6.17 millions in March, they were still well below the average monthly volume of 6.7 million tones in 2024.

Weaker Chinese prices encouraged utilities to switch from imports to local supplies. This trend is likely to continue and will put downward pressure on the volume of imports.

Imports of copper unwrought also fell by 5.2% in the first three months, to 1.3 millions tons.

Copper is another temporary factor. Shipments to the United States increased as traders sought higher prices in the United States ahead of an expected tariff on the imports of this key industrial metal.

Chinese buyers chose to reduce their imports as the United States was a major source of cargoes. They will wait for cheaper prices when the situation regarding Trump's possible tariffs is clarified.

China's first-quarter commodity imports show a soft trend, with temporary factors causing the signs of strength. For example, crude oil arrivals for March were boosted by temporary factors.

The outlook is also cloudy due to Trump's new tariff of 145% on U.S. imported goods from China. If this continues, it will be harder for Beijing achieve its economic growth target of 5% by 2025.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)