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Trump's tariff war is a recession alarm

The turbulence caused by U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs has not abated, and the markets are once again in turmoil. Foreign leaders are trying to figure out how to react to this dismantling.

The financial markets received a temporary reprieve on Wednesday, when Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for dozens countries for 90-days. Trump's escalating war of words with China, the world's second largest economy, has fueled fears about a recession and more retaliation.

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, tried to reassure skeptics at a cabinet meeting held on Thursday by saying that over 75 countries were interested in starting trade negotiations. Trump also expressed his hope for a deal to be reached with China.

The uncertainty between now and then has led to some of the most volatile markets since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 index closed Thursday 3.5% lower and is now about 15% below its peak in February.

Asian indices fell on Friday, following Wall Street's decline. Japan's Nikkei was down almost 5% while Hong Kong stocks are heading for their biggest weekly drop since 2008.

LSEG data revealed that the yield on the 10-year bond was set to reach its highest weekly increase since 2001.

Bessent, on Thursday, dismissed the new market turmoil by saying that striking deals with other nations would bring certainty.

White House: The U.S. has agreed to start formal trade negotiations with Vietnam. Exclusively reported on Friday, the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub was ready to crackdown on Chinese goods that were being shipped via its territory to the United States in order to avoid tariffs.

Shigeru Shiba, the Japanese prime minister, has meanwhile set up a task force for trade that is expected to visit Washington, D.C. next week. Taiwan also said that it expects to be part of the first group of trading partners who will hold talks with Washington.

CHINA DEAL?

Trump imposed higher duties on Chinese imports to punish Beijing for its initial retaliatory move.

A White House official confirmed that Trump has now increased tariffs by 145% on Chinese products since taking office.

Chinese officials are contacting other trading partners to discuss how to handle the U.S. Tariffs. They have recently spoken to counterparts from Spain, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa.

Trump told reporters in the White House that he believed the United States and China could reach a deal, but he repeated his claim that Beijing has "really taken the U.S. advantage" for a very long time.

"I am sure that we will be able get along very nicely," Trump said. He added that he respected Chinese president Xi Jinping. "He's been my friend for a very long time and I believe that we will end up working something out that is good for both countries."

China has restricted the import of Hollywood movies, a major American export, after rejecting what it called Washington's threats and blackmail.

The U.S. tariff freeze does not extend to Canada or Mexico. Their goods still face 25% fentanyl tariffs, unless they meet the rules of origin set forth in the U.S. Mexico Canada trade agreement.

Goldman Sachs has estimated that 45% of the time a recession will occur due to the continued hostilities between the three largest U.S. trading partners.

According to researchers at Yale University, even with the rollback the average U.S. import duty rate is still the highest it has been in over a century.

The pause did not ease the concerns of business leaders about Trump's chaotic trade war, which has resulted in a rise in costs, a fall in orders and a snarled up supply chain.

The European Union did, however, announce that it would suspend its first counter-tariffs.

Next Tuesday, the EU was due to introduce counter-tariffs against imports from the United States worth about 21 billion Euros ($23 billion), in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs. The EU is still deciding how to react to the U.S. auto tariffs as well as the 10% levy that remains in place.

The finance ministers of the 27-country group will discuss on Friday ways to take advantage of the pause in order to reach a deal with Washington, and to coordinate their efforts if that doesn't happen.

The European authorities estimate that the U.S. Tariffs would have a total impact on the economy of 0.5% to 1.00 % of GDP. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), the EU's economy is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2018. The U.S. Tariffs could push the EU into a recession.

(source: Reuters)