Latest News

Miners, financiers see scope in energy transition however struggle with choices: Russell

Mining financial investment conferences have a fantastic track record of pointing to the next development location for commodities, as they unite early phase investors and junior miners looking for to get jobs off the ground.

A decade ago lithium was the popular metal, 5 years earlier it was the turn of gold and more just recently copper has been the flavour of the month at these occasions throughout Asia.

However at the 121 Mining and Energy Financial investment conference this week in Singapore there was no clear option, and no real consensus on where the very best chances lie.

If there was a broad style, it was that the energy transition is real and happening, even if it will take place at varying speeds and in various types across Asia, the world's. most populated area and the engine space of worldwide economic. growth.

But how best to utilize the energy shift into. lucrative investments is developing into a vexing challenge for. both those with cash to splash and those looking for to develop. jobs focused on speeding up the modification to cleaner fuels and. power systems.

Among the unexpected metals on the radar screen at the. conference was lithium. It headed out of favour recently. after a surge in financial investment took the market into surplus,. leading to a collapse of rates, which have actually dropped some 88%. given that reaching a record high in December 2022.

The thinking is that while the lithium market is currently. oversupplied, and this might continue into 2025, there is a wave of. brand-new need coming.

Much of the bearishness surrounding lithium has been about. the slower-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles in the. industrialized world.

However while sales might have been frustrating, lithium demand. is set for strong boosts in the next few years as electric. heavy cars get in service, and as battery storage to firm. renewables such as wind and solar become more widespread.

It's this need for lithium that will end up defeating any. weakness in EV cars and truck sales, and it's set to accelerate strongly by. 2030, which is coincidently around the time a mining company may. be able to cause new production assuming they started. development quickly.

STEEL DEMAND EQUALS COAL

Another out of favour commodity is coal, however there was. interest expressed in metallurgical, or coking coal, the greater. quality fuel used generally to make steel.

In result this is an India play, with the expectation that. as it continues its enormous infrastructure construct out, the South. Asian country will likewise produce more steel, and therefore need to. import coking coal given the lack of domestic resources.

While coal is the bogeyman of climate modification, the view amongst. some investors is that offered the energy shift relies. heavily on steel, coking coal can be acceptable offered its function. in producing steel.

Steel can be de-carbonised by upgrading iron ore utilizing green. hydrogen and then utilizing electric arc heating systems, however the view is. that this will take several years to reach the scale required,. and in the meantime the coal-intensive, standard oxygen. heater approach will control in India, as it carries out in China.

Another part of the product complex attracting financier. interest is the midstream sector, where raw materials are. processed into intermediate products.

The desire of Western countries to diversify away from. China's supremacy of metal processing is unlocking. opportunities, such as the capital offered from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.

The trick is navigating the administrative procedures behind. the different international legislations, and even if the money can be. accessed, it still might not be enough to get rid of China's. economies of scale and first mover advantages.

For instance, establishing a lithium processing plant in. Australia, the world's most significant manufacturer of the battery metal, is. likely to come in at up to eight times the capital and operating. expense of a comparable operation in China.

Accessing capital remains a continuous struggle, with both. financiers and miners stating the pools of readily available capital are. shrinking, especially if Chinese cash is considered politically. inappropriate.

This suggests that smaller jobs are significantly turning to. intermediaries to get funding, such as international trading houses. such as Glencore and Trafigura.

Banks will lend to these reputable business, and. they in turn will lend to smaller-scale jobs.

But the problem with this procedure is that it increases the. cost of capital and slows down the pace at which brand-new tasks. can be brought on line.

The bottom line is that the energy shift is viewed as. using big chances to miners, traders and investors,. however it stays afflicted by uncertainty over which innovations. will become the leaders, and also the absence of collaborated. government policies such as rewards and carbon taxes.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)