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Asian markets gain footing after US PMIs and jobs data lift stocks
Stocks rose in the Asian session on Friday, after a lukewarm U.S. jobs report cast doubts over the prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Regional activity gauges also pointed to an expansionary economy during June. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which had been in decline for two days straight, rose 2.2% after a shaky beginning. South Korea's Kospi fluctuated between gains and losses before surging by more than 6%, as buyers snapped up battered chipset stocks. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.4% while Japan's Nikkei reversed its early losses and traded 1.2% higher. The latest data from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), released on Friday, indicated an increase in activity throughout the region. Japan's service sector expanded in June, after stagnating the month before. China's service activity grew at a slower pace, but overseas demand grew at the highest rate in twenty months. Capital Economics analysts said that the Chinese data showed "the PMIs are still healthy compared to recent standards?and still indicate stronger economic momentum throughout Q2". U.S. LABOUR MARKET COOLING According to data released Thursday, U.S. employment growth slowed dramatically in June, and?payroll increases for the two previous months were revised downward, pointing to an easing labour market. As workers left the workforce, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% last month from 4.3% the previous month. This pushed the participation rate down to its lowest level in over five years. In a report, Westpac analysts said that "the figures challenged the narrative" that the Fed is on track to raise rates in the second half this year. The lackluster jobs data dampened traders' expectations for an imminent rate increase and increased the odds that Fed rates will remain on hold until October. Fed funds futures price a 46.8% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will maintain rates at its September 15-16 meeting, compared to 35.8% a day before. This is according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Stocks on Wall Street were mixed overnight. The S&P 500 was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. The U.S. Market will be closed Friday, July 4, in honor of Independence Day. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 161.06 yens, with the greenback losing gains due to the thinned market liquidity caused by the holiday. Traders were on the lookout for any possible intervention. This week, the Japanese currency has been volatile after reports on Thursday that authorities might have adopted a different approach to their forays in the market. The U.S. Dollar?index which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six currencies was down by 0.3% to 100.71. Early European trading saw pan-regional futures up 0.3%. German DAX was 0.4% higher, and FTSE futures nudge up by 0.1%. Brent crude futures in Asia rose 0.6%, to $72.26 per barrel. Gold rose 1.2% to $4,174.16. Bitcoin was unchanged at $61,549.17 while ether rose 0.1% to $1706.26. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed, Thomas Derpinghaus and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Overnight, Russian attacks in Ukraine kill four and injure ten people, say officials
Officials reported on Telegram that four people were killed and ten others injured during Russian overnight attacks on Ukraine. According to?Oleh Hryhorov of the regional military administration, a Russian drone struck a house in the bordering Sumy area, killing two women, an 'elderly man' and a young girl. Oleksandr?Vilkul, head of the city defence council, reported that seven people had been injured in the densely populated urban area of Kryvyi RIH, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. On Friday, Kyiv will observe a day of mourning after at least three dozen people were killed in the deadliest Russian attack against?the Ukrainian capital this year. Reporting by Jekaterina Glubkova, Tokyo; Editing and production by Stephen Coates & Thomas Derpinghaus
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Peace efforts continue to hold as oil prices rise slightly before the long US weekend
Prices of oil climbed on Friday, just before the long holiday weekend here in 'the U.S. Brent futures rose 46 cents or 0.64% to $72.26 per barrel at 0407 GMT. West Texas Intermediate rose 32 cents or 0.47% to $69.01 per barrel. The U.S. market will be closed Friday in advance of Independence Day. Independence Day is celebrated on Saturday. The two benchmarks had their lowest level since the U.S./Israeli War on Iran, which began in late February. Brent was up by 0.35% for the week and WTI rose by 0.43%. These were the lowest weekly movements in the past?months. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the market was cautiously optimistic, wanting to believe in the success of the peace effort, but hedging his bets till he saw real evidence on water. After the two countries exchanged strikes over the weekend in response to an Iranian attack against a cargo vessel, shipping has partly resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers are working on a production increase with the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. This is because the Strait of Hormuz used to carry one-fifth of daily oil and gas supplies in the world before the start of the war. Kuwait's oil output jumped sharply in June to 1.65m barrels per day from?580,000 bpd, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday. The OPEC member increased exports after the U.S. Iran interim peace agreement. According to shipping and trade data, Saudi Aramco has switched to spot pricing in order to accelerate sales to Asia. The spread between Brent front month and one-month forward has increased due to the increasing supply pressure. The six-month spread turned negative on June 24. The market turned negative Thursday. When the spread is negative, it means that the market is in a contango. In a Friday note, ING analysts said that the return of this'supply' coincides with ongoing SPR releases. They were referring to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The market could see more buyers if "the forward curve moves into contango."
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Gold prices rise for the first time in five weeks on Fed rate hike bets
Investors lowered their expectations of U.S. interest rate increases after softer than expected jobs data. As of 0416 GMT spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,177.31 an ounce. This is the highest price since June 23. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 1.6% to $4,190.70. Bullion is on track to gain 2.2% in a week, its first weekly gain since the week ending?May 29. Weaker-than-expected data from nonfarm payrolls as well as private payrolls have tempered inflation concerns and interest rates that are higher for longer. Dollars were headed for a weekly decline, allowing holders of other currencies to afford greenback priced bullion. Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. He said, "What we are seeing is a reduction in pricing of Federal Reserve rate hikes for the rest of this year and Q1 of next year. This has been driven primarily by yesterday's rather lacklustre data on the labour market." The nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 last month. This was a far cry from the 110,000 economists expected in a recent poll. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now price in an?approximately 54% chance that a rate increase will occur in September. This is down from 66% prior to the release of the data. Gold is less attractive when interest rates are higher, because they tend to make other assets with interest more appealing. Wong said that rate-hike expectations haven't?fully vanished. He added that gold prices could fall to $3,500 per ounce later this year. The World Gold Council reported that central banks had returned to a 'buying mode' in May. According to the latest data, the official gold reserves have increased by a total of?41 tonnes during the month. Spot silver increased?2.3% per ounce to $62.41, platinum rose?2.5% at $1,656.05, while palladium gained 1% to $1281. The three metals are nearing their highest levels for more than a month and heading towards weekly gains. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha; Editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu).
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Aluminum prices rise on weaker dollar and softer US rate hike predictions
The price of aluminium rose on Friday due to a weaker dollar and the easing of concerns about an impending 'U.S. Interest rate hike. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.53% at $3,108 per metric ton by 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract rose 1.18%, to 22,755 Yuan ($3,355.60). The market closely monitored macroeconomic conditions which were offset by announcements made this week that suggested improved aluminum supply prospects. Citi published a note overnight that said the concerns about a rapid return to Middle East supply were overstated. The supply will not arrive quickly enough to offset growth in demand. The data indicating a cooling U.S. labor market has calmed the expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near future, which is helping industrial metals. Rates that are higher can reduce economic activity and demand for metals. Although a rate increase is expected later in the year, odds are still high that it will happen this month. Daniel Hynes said that the easing of concerns about monetary tightening boosted risks appetite and pushed metals higher. A cheaper dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for buyers using ?other currencies. Copper prices also rose despite the recent decline in semiconductor stocks. In recent years, the red metal has benefitted from projections for?demand growth linked to AI infrastructure upgrades, electrical grid improvements and electric vehicles. PMI data this week revealed that factory activity in China, the world's largest copper consumer, grew for seven straight months in June. The Yangshan Copper Premium The level of interest in buying property there was at its highest since 2025. On the LME, copper rose by 0.72% while on the?SHFE, it increased by 0.8%. Zinc, lead, and nickel all rose in price on the LME. Tin also grew by 1.84%. Zinc fell 0.1% on SHFE. Lead rose 0.35%. Nickel grew 0.51%. Tin climbed 0.78%.
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Gold prices rise for the first time in five weeks on Fed rate hike bets
As investors lowered their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes after softer than expected U.S. job data, gold rose by more than 1%. As of 0235 GMT spot gold rose 1.4% to $4179.94 an ounce. This was its highest price since June 23. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in August gained?1.6%, to $4193.20. Bullion is on track to gain 2.3% in a week, its first weekly gain since the week of May 25. Weaker-than-expected data from nonfarm payrolls as well as private payrolls helped ease concerns about inflation and longer-term interest rates. The dollar was heading for a weekly decline, making the price of greenback bullion more accessible to holders of other currencies. Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. "What we are seeing is a reduction in the pricing of U.S. Federal Reserve rates hikes for Q1 and the remainder of this year," he said. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls grew by 57,000 last month. The economists polled had predicted payrolls to increase by 110,000. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now price in a roughly 54% chance that rates will be raised in September. This is down from 66% prior to the release of the data. Gold is less attractive when interest rates are higher, because they tend to make other assets with interest more appealing. According to?Wong, the price of gold could reach $3,500/oz by the end the year. The World Gold Council reported that central banks had resumed their buying in May. According to the latest data, official reserves of gold grew by 41 tons in the month. Silver spot rose by 2.3%, to $62.43, platinum gained 2.7%, to $1660.05 and palladium increased 1.3%, to $1284.40. All three metals are at or near their weekly highs. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, with Pablo Sinha reporting from Bengaluru)
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Asian markets gain footing after US PMIs and jobs data lift stocks
The?stocks rose in the Asian trading session on Friday, following a lukewarm U.S. The jobs report cast doubt on the 'prospect' of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, and regional activity indicators pointed to an expansion in the economy during June. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan has risen 1.3% after two days of declines. South Korea's Kospi fluctuated between gains and losses and ended the day up 3%, as buyers took advantage of battered chipmaker shares. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.3% while Japan's Nikkei 225 reversed its early losses and traded 0.7% higher. The Purchasing Managers' Index data (PMI) released on Friday showed increased activity in the region. Japan's?services?sector resumed expansion in June, after stagnating the previous month. China's service activity expanded at a slower pace, but overseas demand rose at the fastest rate since 20 months. U.S. LABOUR MARKET COOLING U.S. Job growth slowed in June, and payroll gains from the previous two months were revised 'lower,' according to data released Thursday. This indicates a cooling of the labour market. As workers left the workforce, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% last month from 4.3% the previous month. This pushed the participation rate down to its lowest level in over five years. In a report, Westpac analysts said that "the figures challenged the narrative" that the Fed is on track to raise rates in the second half this year. The lackluster jobs data dampened traders' expectations for an imminent rate increase and increased the odds that Fed rates will remain on hold until October. Fed funds futures are pricing a 46.8% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will maintain rates at its September 15-16 meeting, compared to 35.8% a day before. This is according to CME Group's FedWatch. The overnight stock market on Wall Street was a mixed bag. The S&P 500 remained?flat, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. On Friday, the U.S. stock market will close for Independence Day. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 161.125 yen against the yen. This was due to the fact that the market was less liquid because of the holiday, and traders were on the lookout for any possible intervention. This week, the Japanese currency has been volatile after reports on Thursday that?authorities might have adopted a different approach to their forays in the market. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, fell 0.2% to 100.80. Brent crude futures in Asia rose 0.5%, to $72.12 per barrel. Gold rose 1.4% to $4,179.73. (Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Jamie Freed) In cryptocurrency, bitcoin was unchanged at $61,522.23, while ether rose 0.3% to $1,709.33. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Peace efforts continue to hold as oil prices rise slightly before the long US weekend
The price of oil rose slightly Friday, just before the long holiday weekend here in the United States. As cautious optimism held on efforts to bring peace between the United States and?Iran in the Middle East. Brent futures rose 17 cents or 0.24% to $72.10 per barrel at 0155 GMT. West Texas Intermediate rose 14 cents or 0.20% to $68.83 per barrel. The U.S. market will be closed on Friday in advance of Independence Day. Independence Day is celebrated on Saturday. The two benchmarks reached their lowest levels in the previous session since the U.S./Israeli war against Iran started late February. Brent for the week fell by 0.02%, and WTI rose 0.12%. These were the lowest weekly movements in months for both Brent and WTI. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said, "It seems that there's cautious optimism in the market. It wants to believe that 'the peace efforts' will last, but it still hedges its bets, until it sees concrete evidence on water." Some nations have begun to increase production in response to the reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This was the route that carried a fifth of the daily world supply of?oil?and liquefied gas before the start of the war. Kuwait's oil output jumped sharply in June to 1.65 million barrels per day from the 580,000 barrels per day it produced in May. A source familiar with this matter confirmed that. Kuwait boosted its exports on Thursday following the U.S. Iran interim peace agreement. According to shipping and trade data, Saudi Aramco has switched to spot pricing in order to accelerate sales to Asia. Helen Clark, Tom Hogue (Editing)
Andy Home: War and peace will have a major impact on the first half of 2026 for metals traded at the LME.
Operation Epic Fury, which was launched at the end February, quelled the early-year euphoria of copper and tin.
Since then, the Iran war has been the main topic of discussion. This has made it difficult for traders to make sense of the headlines because they are so confusing.
It seems that the Strait of Hormuz has entered a quantum world in which it is simultaneously open and closed, depending on who is speaking at any particular point?in time.
Vanda Insights, a provider of oil market analyses, founded by?Vandana hari, says Schrodinger Strait is "continuing to reopen, but it's patchy and unpredictable."
This is a good description of current peace talks in Doha.
The LME Index (a basket of six base metals that are traded on the London Market) has fluctuated from exuberance, to dejection, to resilience in the first half of the year, and ended the period somewhere between.
The performance of each metal has varied widely depending on its sensitivity to Gulf news.
ALUMINIUM HIT
The war has caused the aluminium industry to suffer in two ways: missile attacks on two Gulf smelters, and logistical constraints at other smelters.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, regional production fell by 2 million metric tonnes annually between February and may.
At the beginning of June, LME's three-month aluminum reached a record high of $3.787.50 per tonne. This was a four-year-high.
Since then, the war premium has almost completely dissipated as market prices have returned to a sort of normality.
Low LME inventories are part of the new normal. The combined on- and offwarrant stock has shrunk to just under 400,000 tons. Most of the Russian metal is in this inventory.
Confusion over Copper
The war has added confusion to an already confusing copper market.
Copper's potential impact on global growth at a macro-level is negative. On a micro-level, however, the Strait closure has caused a shortage of sulphuric acids, which is affecting copper producers who use leach technology.
Copper concentrates is a dysfunctional market. Smelter treatment conditions have collapsed to the point where processors now depend on anything but copper to make money.
The market for refined metals is still waiting on tenterhooks to see if President Donald Trump will implement tariffs. Any day now, a decision will be made.
The U.S. premium continues to drain metal from other countries.
Since the middle of May, LME three-month Copper has been teetering between $13,000 per ton and $14,000.
There are still plenty of super bulls in the LME option market. Investors like copper because of its structural supply deficit.
ZINC SURPRISE
Zinc has surprised the LME pack this year, despite having little direct exposure to war.
Early in June, LME zinc for three months hit a high of almost four years at $3,658 a ton. The price closed the month 14% higher than it was at the beginning of the year. Tin had the strongest performance.
According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market is in a slight deficit.
The shortage is concentrated outside of China where the smelter industry continues to perform below expectations. China is steadily increasing production and on track to achieve self-sufficiency within the next few years.
NICKEL PLAYS INDONESIAN NUMBERS GAMES
The nickel trading story has been dominated by Indonesia and its government's efforts to curb the production of this sector.
The LME's three-month nickel rate reached a record high of $20,000 a ton, a level not seen in two years.
Indonesian producers who use acid to leach their products are under more pressure due to the sulphur influx from the Gulf.
The price has fallen back to $16,000 per tonne due to growing speculations that Indonesia will loosen up its mining quotas.
While Jakarta weighs its options the surplus metal continues. LME stock levels have peaked, but Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories just passed 100,000 tons for first time since 2016.
TURBULENT TIN AND OVERSUPPLIED LEADS
Lead and tin have not been affected by the Gulf War, so each can follow their own narrative.
This is the case for tin. It's a promise that there will be a structural shortage of the soldering metal due to the rising demand.
Tin was the best performer in the LME complex for the first half 2026 with gains of 27%.
Lead is, on the other hand, a market that has been weighed down by excess metal. It closed out the first half of this year with 7% losses.
Since the beginning of the year, the combined LME on-warrant and off-warrant inventories have?hovered around the 500,000 ton mark.
LME trading is characterized by warehouse arbitrage and rotation of inventory between on-warrant or off-warrant storage.
This also shows how the aluminium market has changed dramatically since the beginning of the Iran War.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)