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EU Steel Body says that imports curb the spare sector from the cliff edge
The European steel association Eurofer stated on Tuesday that EU measures to halve the amount of tariff-free imports to the bloc would save the industry from a "cliff?edge?moment". This should allow the production to be resumed at idle plants. The EU institutions came to a preliminary agreement late on Monday, which limits tariff-free imports at 18,3 million metric tonnes, a reduction of 47% compared to 2024. They also double the duty for imports that exceed the quota. The measures that lifted shares from ArcelorMittal Thyssenkrupp Salzgitter will replace existing safeguards which under World Trade Organization regulations?must end after eight years on June 30. Eurofer reported that steel imports to the EU had reached a "record" 9.9 million tonnes in the last quarter of 2025. Flat steel products accounted for a third of the EU market. This highlights the need for stricter restrictions. The rise in steel prices was attributed by the steel association to President Donald Trump’s tariffs of 50% on steel and the EU’s carbon border tax that will be implemented in 2026. Eurofer stated that the?measures which are still awaiting final approval will help to bring back around 15 million tons of EU Steel-making Production and maintain about 30,000 direct European jobs. EU producers are only operating at 65% of their capacity. The association welcomed the fact that new measures will be reviewed regularly, and could result in the addition of other steel products?or adjustments depending on the market's development. "The quotas will be adjusted to the steel demand." This is something we have missed in the steel safeguards over the past eight years," said Sara Franzone. Senior manager of international trading at Eurofer. She also said that, depending on the market conditions, the European Commission would assess whether or not unused quotas can be carried over from one quarter to another, which could lead to a spike in imports at the end of the year. German union IG Metall stated that 'while import curbs are the right response to Asian imports at low prices and can help protect employment, trade policy alone cannot guarantee the survival of Europe’s steel sector. Juergen Kerner said that governments must also ensure lower energy costs and help boost demand by better incentives for investment and economic stimuli. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey, Louise Heavens and Jan Harvey; Additional reporting by Christoph Steitz)
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Bloomberg News reports that Shell is in talks with UAE-based ADNOC to sell fuel outlets in South Africa.
Bloomberg News, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that Shell has advanced talks with Abu Dhabi state oil company ADNOC about a possible deal to sell its retail fuel stations in South Africa. The transaction is likely to be worth around $1 billion. ADNOC was named as the preferred bidder, after Shell's failed negotiations with commodity traders Gunvor Group. A deal could be reached as soon as this quarter. The British oil giant has lowered its expectations for first-quarter production of gas due to the "volatility" in the energy markets following the Middle East conflict. Bloomberg reported that Shell would sell 600 of its retail fuel outlets to ADNOC, giving it about 10% of the South African market. Shell, which has operated in South Africa for over a century now, announced plans to 'exit' its downstream business in the region by 2024. ADNOC had previously announced plans to invest 150 billion dollars between 2026 and 3030?to boost growth and'meet the global energy demand. Shell and ADNOC Distribution didn't immediately respond to comments. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, Raechel Thankam Job from Bengaluru)
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Gold prices rise on the back of a weaker dollar and hopes for US-Iran talks to resume
The gold price rose more than 1% on Monday as the U.S. Dollar weakened. Meanwhile,?hopes?of a resumed U.S. Iran talks boosted prices by easing inflation fears. By 9:50 am, spot gold had risen 1.1% to $4,791.65 an ounce. ET (1350 GMT). U.S. Gold futures increased 1% to $4.815.40. Sources say that negotiating teams from the U.S., Iran, and Pakistan could return to Islamabad to resume talks to end the war this week. After the weekend's collapse, Washington imposed a 'blockade of Iranian ports. The direction of the gold price will be determined by how the Pakistani talks go and the progress made in the lead-up to the weekend. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He added that "lower dollar and lower oil are helping gold right now, because when the war began, there was an influx of cash, as well as a concern over being able to gather energy supplies." Oil prices also fell as the dollar weakened. The weaker dollar makes the greenback price of bullion more accessible to holders of other currencies. The data showed that U.S. producer prices rose less than expected as services remained unchanged. However, the surge in energy prices due to the war with Iran was causing inflation. Gold is a good inflation hedge but it becomes less appealing in a high-rate environment due to its lack of yield. The traders now price in a 25 percent probability that the U.S. will cut its interest rates this year. Before the war, they expected two cuts. Analysts at Commerzbank stated that the price of gold is unlikely to drop much more as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve does not raise rates. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru Editing by Keith Weir) (Reporting and editing by Keith Weir in Bengaluru)
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Greenland names former PM Egede Foreign Minister
Greenland's Prime Minister said Tuesday that he appointed his predecessor Mute Egede to the position of?foreign ministry, giving him the task of steering the relations with the United States amidst pressure from U.S. president Donald Trump to control the island. Premier?Minister Jens Frederik Nielsen stated that Egede’s portfolio would also include those of minerals resources and business policy. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the United States is in need of Greenland, which is a part if the Kingdom of Denmark. This claim has caused a rift between European NATO allies, who have rejected it. Greenland and Denmark, as well as the U.S., launched diplomatic discussions in late January to try to save their relations. They have stated that negotiations are ongoing and further meetings will be held. Egede's current Finance Minister, Egede, has repeatedly stated that Greenland will not be sold and its people will decide their own future. He rejects Trump's approach. Vivian Motzfeldt led Greenland's initial Washington talks delegation. She resigned as foreign minister in December after her party left the coalition government for reasons unrelated to the U.S. war. Reporting by Louise Rasmussen, Editing by Terje Solsvik
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IMF Chief economist: A long Iran war could require painful central banking tightening
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund said that central banks may need to inflict more pain on the economy to control inflation caused by the long Middle East conflict than they did for the price spike after the pandemic. In a Tuesday interview, IMF Chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices rose to $100 per barrel, a post-COVID overheated economy required small increases in interest rates. Gourinchas stated that monetary tightening could be necessary, especially if inflation expectations are unanchored. Gourinchas, who spoke at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, said that "stepping on the brakes will be painful". You may need to cause a lot of pain to achieve the same result. It's not clear yet how much central banks will need to do in order to combat the rising costs of oil, gas, and other commodities, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the conflict. IMF cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.1% on Tuesday, down 0.2 points since January. This is based on the assumption that the war would be short-lived, and oil prices will average $82 per barrel in 2018. The institution's "adverse scenarios" include a prolonged conflict with oil prices averaging $100 and a slowdown in growth to 2.5%. The "severe" scenario envisions a prolonged conflict with oil prices at $110 and $125 by 2026. The IMF believes that the global economy is on the verge of a recession as growth drops to just 2.0% in this year. Gourinchas says that the main concern is that inflation expectations may become unanchored in a situation like this. He also adds that the inflation shock of 2022?had made consumers hypersensitive to price. He said that companies would "raise their prices more easily" and workers "would seek higher wages faster". "Once we enter that world, the people will look at this and conclude that inflation is here to stay." (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; David Lawder)
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Euro zone faces big growth hit even if Iran war quickly resolved, IMF says
The 'International Monetary Fund' said that the growth of the Eurozone will slow and the inflation rate will rise this year, forcing the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. This is even if the economic disruptions brought on by the Iran War fade by the middle of the year. The euro zone economy, which imports most of its energy needs, is particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices, especially as Russia's conflict in Ukraine has already affected the bloc's ability to access vital resources. Growth is now seen slowing to 1.1% this year from 1.4% in 2025, below the 1.3% predicted in January, as the war ?more than negates better-than-predicted expansion at the end of last year, the IMF said in its World ?Economic Outlook. The IMF stated that "the (war's) impact" will add to the effects of the rising energy prices, which have been a drag on the manufacturing sector since the invasion by Russia of Ukraine. There is also the pressure of the real appreciation in the euro compared to other currencies from countries exporting similar products. The IMF, however, is more optimistic that the ECB which, last month, predicted a 0.9%?growth based on its own baseline before a rapid pickup in 2027. The IMF said that a planned increase in defence spending would mitigate some of the expected drag, but because the spending ramp-up is relatively slow the boost will likely materialise in the future. According to the IMF’s ‘baseline’ projection, the inflation rate will jump from 2.1% to 2.6% by?2026. This assumes the war is limited in duration, intensity and scope. IMF stated that the ECB deposit rate of 2% is likely to 'rise by 50 % basis points over the course 2026 as a response to the inflation increase. The market has predicted this increase and investors have priced in a 'rate hike' by June, assuming that the ECB would want to send a signal early that it won't tolerate inflation that goes beyond energy, and that creates a spiral of self-sustaining prices. The IMF, like the ECB said, that even worse outcomes were possible. Its 'adverse and severe' scenarios predicted a greater impact on global growth and a higher inflation rate. (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell; Balazs Coranyi)
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MSF reports that drone attacks in Sudan have killed two and injured 56.
Medecins Sans Frontieres reported on Tuesday that it had'recorded two deaths' and treated 56 injured people after five drone attacks carried out by the Sudanese Armed Forces in Darfur. MSF provides medical assistance and responds to emergencies in nine Sudanese states, amid a conflict between the Sudanese Army and?the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. In a press release, the Geneva-based medical charity said that the attacks of the Sudanese?Armed Forces demonstrated complete disregard for civilian lives as Sudan entered its?fourth war year. "We urge the 'warring parties' in Sudan to protect civilians." U.N. Human Rights Office has stated that drone strikes have increased in Sudan in this year, with over 500 civilians killed between January and March. UNICEF's spokesperson for Sudan, Eva Hinds told reporters at the Geneva press conference that "children continue to be the most affected in Sudan, and drones are responsible for nearly 80% of all reported child deaths and injuries." Hinds reported that at least 245 children had been killed or injured during the first three months of 2026. This is a significant increase from?the same time last year. (Reporting and writing by Emma Farge, Geneva; Editing by Madeline Chambers).
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Grocer Albertsons predicts a soft sales forecast for the year as demand remains high
Albertsons' annual sales were below Wall Street estimates on Tuesday. They attributed this to the intense competition between Walmart and Amazon.com, two of its biggest rivals. The shares of the Boise-based grocery store were down by 2% during premarket trading. In 2025, they had fallen by nearly 13%. Albertsons is under pressure to lower prices as larger rivals such as Walmart, Target, and Kroger have slashed the price of essentials in order to attract 'increasingly cost-conscious shoppers. The grocery store, which also operates hundreds of gasoline stations, is at risk as the Iran conflict fuels higher gas prices and weighs on consumer spending, already conservative. Albertsons reported a net loss in the fourth quarter of $480.8M, compared to a profit of $171.8M a year ago. This was due to charges from opioid claims. Albertsons announced on Tuesday that it would pay $774 million in nine years as a settlement to thousands of lawsuits filed by U.S. state governments, local governments, and Native American tribes who claimed the supermarket chain’s?pharmacies fuelled the nation’s opioid epidemic. LSEG data shows that the company's adjusted profit for the fourth quarter of 48 cents a share beat analysts' average estimates of 43 cents. It is expected that fiscal 2026 will see a flat or 1% increase in sales, as opposed to the estimated 1.58% rise. Albertsons expects an adjusted annual profit of between $2.22 and $2.32 per share. The midpoint is slightly below the $2.28 estimate. Rival Kroger has forecast muted sales and profit for March, as it plans to invest cost savings in lower prices and better delivery services. (Reporting by Sanskriti Shekhar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
Due to the Iran War, industry groups have reduced their global steel demand forecasts for 2026.
The World Steel Association cut its forecast on global 'crude steel demand' for this year. This was partly because of the Iran War, which has slashed Middle East consumption. The industry group reduced its forecast of growth in 2026 steel demand to 0.3%, or 1.72 billion tons. This is down from an earlier forecast in October that was 1.3%. "We expect that the conflict in the Middle East will result in a sharp decline in the region's demand for steel in 2026. This was a strong area for growth," said Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada. "We're now transitioning to a modest growth path in 2026 with an acceleration more pronounced projected for 2027," said?Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, chair of the group's economics?committee. The group said that the demand for crude steel is expected to increase by 2.2% to reach 1.76 billion tonnes next year. The group added that China, the world's largest steel producer, will see its output drop by 1.5% in this year due to its struggling property and construction sectors and remain flat in 2027. As the realignment of China's property market stabilizes, we expect that Chinese steel demand will transition into a period of cyclical stabilization. The group predicted that demand in India, 'the world's fastest-growing major steel market, will?remain high, rising 7.4% this year, and 9.2% by 2027. Reporting by Eric Onstad, Editing by Alison Williams & Sonia Cheema
(source: Reuters)