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After the disruption of Hormuz, India looks to Latin American and African oil
Data from trade sources shows that Indian refiners have turned to imports of?lubricants from Latin America and Africa, after Middle East supplies were disrupted by the Israeli-U.S. War on Iran. The world's third largest oil importer and user bought the majority of its crude oil from the Middle East before the war began at the end February. Kpler's preliminary data shows that Indian refiners increased their imports of Venezuelan oil in April and may to cover the shortfall. They also continued to purchase Russian oil. India stopped buying oil from Iraq last month as the exports had been halted. It received Iranian oil, however, after a seven-year pause, following a temporary waiver by Washington in order to stabilize global oil prices. Nayara Energy closed its 400,000 barrels per day refinery for maintenance in New Delhi, causing a 29.4% drop in imports. Kpler's preliminary data showed that India will receive about 1.9m bpd from Russia in May and around 41,000 bpd from Iraq. The data revealed that India imported 4,57 million barrels per day of oil in April. This was the same as March but 15.5% less than a year ago. The data revealed that imports of oil from Saudi Arabia remained at 619,500 barrels per day (bpd) while those from the United Arab Emirates increased to 669.700 bpd. Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain are dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for their shipments. Data showed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes the UAE as a member, increased its share of India's imports to 45.2% in April, from around 30% in March. The UAE left OPEC in May, releasing it from oil production quotas. The UAE's higher imports helped to arrest the decline in Middle East's share for?Indian imports. Meanwhile, the share of Russian oil fell from almost 50% to around 35%. Russia was India's largest oil supplier. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were the next two. Brazil was India's fourth-largest oil supplier. Venezuela was ranked fifth. Kpler data shows that Venezuela is on track to become the 4th largest supplier in May.
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Indian Finance Minister calls for focus on the '3Fs - fuel, fertilizer, and forex
Nirmala Sitharaman, Indian Finance Minister, urged India to concentrate on fuels and fertilisers and to save foreign exchange amid the Gulf Crisis. Modi called for Indians this month to save fuel, avoid buying gold, and take other austerity measures to manage the energy crisis and economic headwinds. Sitharaman stated that it was important for the Prime Minister to call on all countries to conserve their foreign currency as much as possible. She added that this should be considered when focusing on the 3Fs (fuel, fertilizer and foreign exchange). India is suffering from the effects of high crude oil prices and disruptions in supply after the U.S./Israeli war against Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Sitharaman said, "High prices of crude, fertilisers, and gold create some external challenges" while speaking at an event held in Mumbai. India, which is the world's third-largest oil importer and user, increased petrol and diesel prices again on Monday. This was the fourth price increase since May. Sitharaman stated that India's revenue is expected to suffer a?hit of 1 trillion rupees (US$1 billion) in FY27 as a result of reducing excise duty on fuel. Reporting by Khushi malhotra. Writing by Tanvi mehta. Editing by YPrajesh.
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Chinese coking coal prices jump as a deadly mine accident tightens the supply outlook
Prices of Chinese 'coking coal' soared to their highest level in nearly two weeks on Monday, after a series of strict safety checks were conducted at coal mines as a result of a fatal mine accident that occurred near a key production hub. This led to expectations of a tightening of supply. The gas explosion that occurred at the Liushenyu Coal Mine in northern Shanxi province late Friday night has claimed the lives of 82 people. This is the deadliest mining accident to have happened in China since 2009. Local officials announced at a Sunday 'news conference' that the mine belongs to Shanxi Tongzhou Coal Coking Group. All?four mines of this group have been shut down and executives arrested. The People's Daily, a state-run newspaper, published an editorial about the accident on Sunday's front page. It called for more attention to safety and production. The price of the most traded coking coal contract at the Dalian Commodity Exchange jumped?by 7.97%, to $126.77 per metric tonne, its highest since May 12. The DCE coke contract, the most active one, soared 7.99% to reach 1,879 Yuan per ton. This is its highest level since May 6. According to a survey conducted by Mysteel, several other coal mining operations in Shanxi had halted their production for three or five days due to?safety inspections'. This would have reduced the raw coking coal supplies by 288,000 tonnes per day. Analysts at Wuchan Zhongda Futures stated that "Coking coal supplies are set to contract, while demand remains resilient. This will support prices in the near term." Mysteel data shows that iron?ore price gains have been pared as weekly shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 22% in the past week. The DCE contract that was the most active closed the daytime trade at?793 Yuan per ton, while the benchmark June Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange had risen 0.49% to $106.7 per ton by 0809 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks gained ground mostly due to higher raw material costs. Rebar gained 1.48 %, hot-rolled coil rose 1.39 %, wire rod grew 2.36%, while stainless steel remained unchanged. ($1 = 6.7811 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Janane Venkatraman and Lewis Jackson)
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Myanmar military intensifies fight for rare Earth area and border routes
Myanmar's military launched a renewed offensive into several border areas, including an area with rare earth deposits, and other important trade routes. This comes a month after the new administration officially took control of this?war-torn nation. Ye Win Oo is the new military chief who took over in March, after his longtime predecessor left to become president. He has been aggressively reclaiming strategic border strongholds that ethnic armies have taken control of in recent years. Recent military offensives focused on Kachin State - a region rich with heavy rare earth elements bordering China - as well as Chin State near the Indian border, and a major trade corridor in Karen State next to Thailand. Global New Light of Myanmar reported that Ye Win Oo, at a meeting held last week, told soldiers the military had secured Falam Town in Chin State as well as an arterial route connecting Mandalay to Myitkyina, in Kachin State. The military's strategy is to gain control of the main communication and trade routes in Myanmar, said Myanmar analyst Sai Kyi Zin Soe. We can clearly see the military's desperate attempts to recapture border towns. A phone call to an official in the Myanmar presidential office revealed that he declined to comment. Media access to Myanmar is still restricted, so it was impossible to independently verify details about the military offensives or their initial successes in certain parts. The offensives come after former junta chief-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing last month asked rebel ?groups opposed to the military to enter into peace talks within 100 days - a proposal that many ethnic armies immediately rejected. The conflict in Myanmar began when, in?2021, the military staged an attempted coup to overthrow a democratically-elected civilian government headed by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The military was forced out of many regions by multiple ethnic armies, rebel groups and other forces. BORDER GATEWAYS The Kachin Independence Army, who took control of the area in October 2024, has prepared their defences. Naw Bu, the spokesperson for the Kachin Independence Army, which took control of this area in October 2024 said that the armed group had prepared their defences. This is especially true around the Chipwi township and Pangwa areas. He said, "We will welcome the opposition groups with our guns." The military launched a simultaneous offensive on the western frontier in Chin State bordering India. This could disrupt an important cross-border logistic route supporting opposition groups inside Myanmar. Salai Van, the spokesperson for the Chin National Front, stated that resistance fighters had made strategic retreats out of the towns of Tonzong and Falam in the state as the military used heavy aerial bombings on the territory to recover. The Myanmar military used jet fuel smuggled from Iran to power a massive bombing campaign that targeted more than 1,000 civilian targets in 15 months. Fuel shortages caused by the conflict in Iran have not yet slowed the war machine down, even though the energy crisis has been devastating to the farmers and civilians of Myanmar. The military also launched an offensive near Thailand to take control of the Myawaddy-Kawkareik Highway, a major trade route that has been a source of conflict since 2024 when the ethnic 'Karen National Union army' pushed into Myawaddy. Min Aung Hlaing specifically mentioned the KNU as part of his effort to bring opposition groups together by July 31. The military has violated agreements and pledges repeatedly, and continues to do so. It is obvious that trust is absent. "Whatever they try, it will fail."
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Will they or will they not?
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors wore their 'risk-on' hats on Monday as the prospect of an 'end to the Iran war, and opening the Strait of Hormuz was ever closer. Stocks in Tokyo and Taipei reached record highs and oil prices and U.S. dollars fell. There are also doubts, particularly after U.S. president Donald Trump downplayed hopes of an imminent breakthrough. He noted that he had instructed his representatives to not rush into any deal with Iran, even though pressure is increasing to find a resolution. Liquidity will be low as traders focus on the headlines. Investors are jittery over the will-they-won’t-they saga, but?in the end, it is a question of when and not if a settlement is reached to end this nearly three-month conflict. Shipping data revealed that two liquefied gas tankers were exiting the Strait of?Hormuz. Meanwhile, a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude bound for China had left the Gulf after being stranded in the Gulf for almost?three months. The reality is, a resolution will not 'push oil prices?back to the levels before the war. And the energy supply chain may take some time to recover. So inflation concerns are going nowhere, and neither are calls for rates that are higher, longer. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2027. This would be a "stark reversal" from the two rate reductions that were anticipated this year, before the war started. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact U.S.-Iran talks
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Chinese coking coal prices jump as a deadly mine accident tightens the supply outlook
Prices of Chinese coking coal soared to their highest level in almost two weeks on Monday, after a 'wave' of safety checks in coal mines in response to a fatal mine accident that occurred in a key production hub. This triggered expectations for a tightening in supply. The gas explosion that occurred at the Liushenyu Coal Mine in the northern province of Shanxi on Friday night has claimed the lives of 82 people. This is the deadliest mining accident to have happened in the country since 2009. Local officials announced at a Sunday news conference that the mine belongs to Shanxi Tongzhou Coal?Coking Group. All four mines of this group have been shut down and their?executives arrested. The People's Daily, a state-run newspaper, published an editorial about the accident in its front page Sunday morning. It called for more attention to safety and "completely reversing the tendency" to prioritize development over safety. The price of the?most traded coking coal contract at the Dalian Commodity Exchange has risen by 7.97%, to $1266.5 ($186.78 per metric tonne), its highest level since last May 12. The DCE coke contract with the highest volume surged 7.99%, to 1,879 Yuan per ton. This is its highest level since May 6. Mysteel, a consultancy, found that other coal mines have stopped production in Shanxi for a period of?three to five? days due to safety checks. This would result in reducing the raw supply of 'coking coal' by 288,000 tons / day. The iron ore price also increased, with the DCE contract at 0345 GMT up 0.5% to?796.5 per tonne. By 0335 GMT, the benchmark?June Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 0.96% to $107.2 per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks gained on the higher raw materials costs. Rebar grew 1.45%; hot-rolled coil climbed 1.39%; wire rod jumped 1.19%; and stainless steel grew 0.3%. $1 = 6.7806 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu; Amy Lv, Lewis Jakcson)
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Indian retailers increase fuel prices for the fourth time in a row to curb losses
Dealers said that India's state-owned fuel retailers raised diesel prices by 2.71 rupees ($0.0283) and petrol by 2.61 rupees per litre, marking the fourth increase in a month to recover some losses caused by higher crude oil costs as a result of the Iran War. Indian state fuel retailers who control 90% of the Indian market began increasing pump prices on May 15, after elections were completed in certain key states. Since then, the state companies have increased?the price of petrol and diesel by approximately 7.8% and 8.6% respectively. New Delhi petrol will cost 102.12 rupees per litre, and diesel 95.20 rupees. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, has been hit by rising crude prices as well as supply disruptions following the closure of Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi also implemented austerity measures in order to curb fuel consumption and control its oil import bill, as policymakers prepare for a prolonged shock. Prices vary across states because of local taxes. State retailers have also suffered a rise in?fuel losses as customers switch to retail pumps that are cheaper, leading to shortages. IOC said in a statement on Saturday that its retail sales for the period of May 1-22 were up?by 18% compared to a year earlier and petrol sales had increased by 14%. $1 = 95.6890 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul and Nidhi Palyekar from New Delhi)
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Russell: China's thermal coal production drops, but prices of imported coal in Asia rise amid the Iran war.
Although the Iran war has impacted crude oil and natural gas prices, its impact on coal has been muted. Prices for thermal grades are quietly rising to multi-year heights. The conflict between the United States of America and Iran has led to the loss of about 10% of world crude oil, and a fifth of LNG, but thermal coal supplies remain largely unaffected. Even though the cost of shipping and producing has increased due to higher fuel prices. Coal prices are not solely driven by the?Iran War. Other factors, such as low Chinese production and Indonesian regulations, may be more influential. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to have their best month since December in May. The imports of thermal coal in Asia are expected to hit 76.26 millions metric tons by May, up 23 percent from April. This is also higher than the 72.83 million that were imported in May 2012. All of the top buyers in the region have seen gains. China, the largest coal importer in the world, is on course to receive 22.63 millions tons of seaborne thermal coal, up from 16.3 million tons in April, and the highest since January. China's appetite to import is driven by a weaker domestic production. April production was 385.63 millions tons, down from 440.62 in March and also 1% lower than April of last year. China's first four-month output fell by 0.1%, to 1.58 billion tonnes. The fact that China's thermal electricity production, which is largely coal-fired?rose by 3.6% during the first four month of the year suggests that the supply-demand balance in China has been tightened, encouraging imports. The Shanxi coal mine disaster, the worst in 17 years at a metallurgical mine that killed 82 people last Friday may cause a further shortage of coal as authorities increase safety inspections in both thermal coal and coking coal mining. China's increasing import demand has helped to lift prices?of grades it seeks. The commodity price reporting -agency Argus assessed Indonesian coal, which had an energy content 4,200 kilocalories/kilogram (kcal/kg), at $64.43 a tonne in the week ending May 22. This was a three year high and up by 42% from the end of last. Kpler predicts that India, as the second largest importer of thermal coal, will see arrivals of 13,78 million tons in May. This is the highest since June last years and 7.3% more than the 12,84 million recorded in April. Last week, heat waves drove electricity demand to new records. This boosted demand for coal-fired generators. INDONESIA CHANGES The world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia, announced regulatory changes last week that will have a significant impact on the way cargoes are traded. Indonesia intends to "take control" of the coal trade, by directing exports via a state-owned company that will control contracts and price. The government has said that it will honor existing long-term agreements, but it has also stated it reserves the rights to review the prices of such deals. By implementing a state control on exports, the government hopes to?stop under-invoicing' and collect more revenue. It's possible that the trade flow will be affected if there is still uncertainty about how the new system works in practice. Japan's thermal coal imports are expected to increase from 6.63 millions tons in April to 7.59 million tonnes in May. South Korea's arrivals will be 6.73 million tons, which is the highest since January, and up from 4.79 million tons in April. Both countries in North Asia are among the top four coal importers, and they are also the best positioned to switch from LNG imported natural gas to coal-fired electricity generation. Due to the Iran War, both spot and contract LNG prices are likely to rise sharply. Japan and South Korea may therefore seek ways to maximize coal-fired power generation. The price of high grade Australian thermal coal has risen as a result. The weekly assessment of Newcastle?Port rose to $133.09 per ton during the week ending May 22. This is up from $131.80 and only slightly below the 18-month-old high of $140.53 set in early April. Australia is the second largest coal exporter and may be in a better position to capitalize on any disruptions to Indonesian coal shipments due to regulatory changes. Its lower-grade coal could replace Indonesian coal. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Analysts say that China could be a net exporter of refined zinc in 2026.
Analysts said that China would export more refined zinc in 2026 than it imports, for the first time since four years. This is due to a growing supply of the metal and a weak domestic demand.
China, which produced about half of the world's Zinc last year, is also a major zinc importer. The metal is mainly used for galvanising steel.
Alice Fox, commodities analyst at Macquarie Group says that net refined zinc imports will be 209,767 tonnes this year compared to 428,890 tones in 2024.
According to Fox, at home, new capacity is expected to be added this year, while the property sector is still struggling to meet demand.
In the meantime, in 'the rest of the world', production has been suspended or reduced at smelters?in Peru and Kazakhstan due to accidents, and a tightening of supply of zinc concentrat. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has also led to a rise in energy costs, which have increased production costs.
Olga Hepting is the principal zinc analyst for CRU Group. She said that China was very close to achieving self-sufficiency by the end of 2025. "It is likely to remain in surplus in 2026 while the rest of the world will be in deficit, leading to possible exports in the third or fourth quarter."
Prices outside China are also increasing faster than the benchmark. As of Friday, the most traded zinc?contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 3% in the past year. The global benchmark on the London Metal Exchange has risen 11%.
According to calculations based on Chinese import data, despite the fact that?China remained a net consumer in the four-month period?towards April, net imports dropped 62% compared to a year ago. Analysts predict that 'the switch to exports will occur in the second half of this year.
Hepting did note that if the Iran War drags on, the global demand hit from higher energy costs could affect China's export market.
(source: Reuters)