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China's property woes lead to a two-week low in iron ore
Iron ore futures hit a two-week low on Monday as a number of data points from China, the world's largest consumer, highlighted the?persistent weakness? in the real estate market. This raised?concerns? about the?demand? for the steelmaking ingredient. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading 2.58% lower, at 794 Yuan ($114.03) per metric ton. This was its lowest level since January 6. As of 0710 GMT the benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 1.54% to $104.7 per ton. This was its lowest level since January 2. Official data shows that China's home prices continued to decline in December. This highlights the persistent pressures on the property market despite government promises to stabilize it. Investors also saw a decline in property investment and sales by floor area, which they closely monitor for future steel and ore demand. China's lower crude-steel output and signs of increasing supply also weighed on the market. The crude steel production in 2025 will fall below 1 billion tonnes and reach a seven-year low, as a prolonged property market slump hurts demand. However, steel exports will rise to record highs. The 'world's biggest iron ore consumer received his first shipment of iron from the Simandou Mine in Guinea. Beijing has heavily invested in the mine, to reduce its dependence on Brazilian and Australian shipments that make up 80% of its foreign supply. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also dropped in price, by 0.8% and 1.04 percent respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell 1.04%, wire rod dropped 0.6%, and hot-rolled coil was down 0.75%. Stainless steel softened by 0.21%. ($1 = 6.9628 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Shanghai copper prices slip on profit-taking and weak China demand
Shanghai copper lost for a third session in a row on Monday as profit-taking and signs of?subdued Chinese demand weighed on market. The'most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended?daytime trading down 0.68% to 101,180 Yuan ($14.531.51) per metric ton. After two consecutive sessions of declines, the benchmark 3-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.90% at $7,018 per ton, as of 0700 GMT. The?Shanghai copper market continued to be a profit-making opportunity for investors, while weak demand also brought down the price of copper. The Yangshan Copper Premium The?measure of Chinese demand for imported material?, which was more than $50 per ton in late December, fell to just $32 on Friday, showing a weakening demand despite a record rally in red metal. Copper inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE have continued to increase for a sixth week running, indicating a softer buying interest amid high prices. Deliverable copper inventories According to SHFE’s weekly stock report, the amount of copper in these warehouses increased by 18.3% on Friday to 213,515 tonnes, which was a nine-month record. They were also up 138.86% from December 8. Copper prices were still supported by mine interruptions and fears that regional market dislocations in other countries due to tariffs would?tighten refined copper supply. Stock levels at U.S. Comex Warehouses On Friday, the number of short?tons (49223.3 metric tonnes) reached 542,914. Data released on Monday showed that China's economy grew at a 4.5% rate in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, a three-year low. For 2025, however, the economy expanded by 5.0% and reached Beijing's 5% target despite trade tensions and weak domestic demand. Lead fell?2.33%. Nickel dropped 1.42%. Tin tumbled 5.98%. Aluminium, zinc, lead, and nickel all saw gains. Tin was also up 1.41%.
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China's aluminium production in 2025 will surpass 45 million tonnes
Data released by the government on Monday showed that China's aluminum production grew to 45 million metric tonnes in 2025. This is largely in line with a national output cap mandated by the government and represents a slower growth rate than in 2024. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the full-year production in the world's biggest consumer and producer of light metals rose by 2.4%, to 45.02 millions tons. This is a slower growth rate than the 4.6% in 2024. The December production rose 3.0% year-on-year, to 3.87 millions tons. The output was near the long-standing ceiling of 45 million tons per annum mandated by government in a broad effort to reduce oversupply. Analysts at Citi stated in December that a strong growth in the?aluminium production in China is unlikely. Citing not only the 45-million-ton cap, but also tighter energy, environmental and carbon policies which have made aluminium melting in China "a poor investment". In 2025, aluminium was the most expensive base metal. The benchmark three-month contract for aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose by more than 17%, while Shanghai aluminium increased by more than 14%. This was due to supply concerns after China reached its production capacity limit. China's nonferrous metal production, which includes copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel, rose by 4.9 percent to?7.21 millions metric tons in the month of December. The output for 2025 increased by 3.9 percent to 81.75 millions metric tons. Other non-ferrous materials include tin and antimony. Mercury, magnesium, titanium, and mercury are also available. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan, and Neil Fullick).
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Morning Bid Europe-US takes on its largest creditor
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what's ahead for the European and Global markets. This is so unbelievable. The U.S. President threatens to impose an additional tax on American consumers to force Europe to sell him territory it can't legally offer. The tariffs could be illegal if the Supreme Court decides to rule on the matter. The fact that the tariffs are directly linked to sovereignty and the implications for the nation states makes it difficult for either party to TACO and puts all trade agreements already in place into question. The EU has already paused ratification for the U.S. EU agreement and the U.S. UK deal must be in question. Trump uses tariffs instead of a military invasion to attack a NATO member. This could lead to the end of the alliance and the loss of U.S. air bases in Europe, intelligence-sharing, billions of dollars in defence sales, etc. Market reaction was moderately risk-off. S&P futures were down nearly 1%, and EU stock futures by 1.1%. Gold and silver reached new peaks while the dollar lost ground against the Swiss franc, yen and other safe haven currencies. Analysts note that European investors have $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks. Cotton, it's a brave move to start a trade conflict with your largest creditor. There will also be a few tense days in Davos, as world leaders gather for the World Economic Forum. This includes a large U.S. delegation led by Trump. All the tensions are a boon to China which has just signed a new trade agreement with Canada. Exports helped China's Q4 GDP to slightly exceed forecasts, at 4.5% for the year. However, disappointing retail sales in December highlighted the weakness of the domestic demand. If?demography determines destiny, then the latest population figures should alarm Beijing. China will have 3.4 million less people in 2025, or roughly the population of Uruguay. In Japan, at 9am GMT, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held a press conference to announce a likely snap election for February. She did this to capitalize on her high approval ratings, though the voters seemed to prefer her to the 'LDP. It has led to talk about reducing the consumption tax, at least on food. This would be bad for the budget. It is important to note that the budget has improved in recent years, with a nominal GDP increase of 4%. This fiscal year, it may even be in surplus. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - Eurozone CPI for December. Canadian CPI Dec ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in Eurogroup Meeting
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Coal India's Bharat Coking Coal unit nearly doubles its IPO price after a strong demand
Bharat coal, India's top coking coal company, saw its shares nearly double in their debut on the market Monday, as a result of the strong interest generated by the IPO. The shares were listed at a price of 45 rupees (95.7% higher than the original issue price of 23?rupees) on the National Stock Market of?India. Meanwhile, the benchmark Nifty50 was down by 0.5% for the day. Last week, the $118.7 million IPO attracted bids totaling $13?billion, making it one of most popular IPOs. Subscribe to the heavyweights In recent years, state-run services have been offered. The issue was priced fairly, especially as a low-ticket IPO. It offered an attractive risk/reward profile, said?Prashanth Tase, senior Vice President (Research) at Mehta Equities. This company was India's first major board listing since?2026. It is a subsidiary of government-owned Coal India, one of?the world's largest coal producers. According to LSEG, India will be the world's second largest primary market after the United States in 2025, with 367 IPOs that raised $21.8 billion.
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India's Reliance drops after failing to meet profit expectations on the retail slowdown
Reliance Industries shares fell by as much as 2.7% on Monday morning after the conglomerate missed their?third quarter profit estimates. The company was weighed down mainly by a slowdown in earnings growth in its retail segment. The shares of Mukesh Ambani's company were trading at $1,426, according to Reuters. As of 9:41 am, 60 rupees were among the five biggest losers in the Nifty 50 index. Reliance reported a profit of 186.45?billions rupees for the quarter October-December, which was below analysts' estimates. The average estimate was 196.44??billions rupees. UBS analysts trimmed Oil-to-Chemicals(O2C) and retail estimates slightly ?but said they still see room for a valuation re-rating, as the company's earnings before interest ?and taxes (EBIT) mix increasingly shifts toward structural growth drivers such ?as digital and retail, ?reducing dependence on the cyclical oil and gas segment. The retail unit's core margins were reduced to 8% in the first quarter of this year from 8.6% last year due to festive discounts, investments in hyper-local delivery startups and an impact from India’s new labour code. Analysts at Emkay said that the retail growth slowed primarily due to the'moving forward of the holiday season and the impact on the first month from the demerger in consumer products. The segment's core earnings grew by 1.3%, to 69.15 bn rupees. This compares with an increase of?9.5% a year ago. Reliance's Oil and Gas segment weakened because of lower production and softer price realisations? from its ageing KG D6 fields. This led to a?revenue decline of 8.4% and a 12.7% decrease in core earnings due to higher maintenance costs. Analysts at Systematix predict a 5% increase in O2C revenue, 12% growth in Retail and 9% growth for Jio during the period FY25-FY28. However, they also forecast a decline of 12% within their oil and natural gas business. (Reporting from Urvi Dugar, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich)
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China's property woes lead to a two-week low in iron ore
Iron ore futures dropped to two-week lows Monday after a number of?data points from China, the top consumer, highlighted persistent weakness on?the property markets. This raised concerns about demand for this?key ingredient in steelmaking. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading session 2.82% lower, at 792 Yuan ($113.73), its lowest level since January 6. As of 0355 GMT the benchmark February iron ore price on the 'Singapore Exchange had fallen by 1.64% to $104.6 per ton. This was its lowest level since January 2. Official data showed that China's home prices continued to decline in December. This underscores the persistent pressures on the property market despite government promises to stabilize it. Investors also saw a decline in property?investment, and sales of properties by floor area. These are closely monitored by investors to?get hints on future steel and ore demand. China's lower crude-steel output and signs of increasing supply also weighed on the market. The crude steel production in 2025 will be below 1 billion tonnes, a 7-year low. This is due to the prolonged property market slump that has hurt demand. Steel exports however have reached record highs. The world's biggest?iron-ore consumer received its first shipment from the Simandou mine, Guinea. Beijing has heavily invested in the mine, to reduce its dependence on Brazilian?and Australian shipments that make up 80%?of?its?foreign supply. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also declined, falling by 0.89% each. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell 1.1%, hot-rolled coil lost 0.81%, wire rod dropped 0.06% and stainless steel rose 0.03%. ($1 = 6.9640 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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China's crude and gas production, refinery throughput in 2025 will reach new heights
Government data released on Monday showed that China's crude oil production and refinery output in 2025 will both be at all-time highs. National Bureau of Statistics reported that the world's second largest oil consumer will process?737.59 millions?metric tonnes of crude oil by 2025. Calculations showed that the figure is about 14.75 millions barrels per day. This surpasses the previous record of 14.7 million barrels set in 2023. Analyst Jianan Sun at Energy Aspects said that "Chinese refinery runs will grow by an average of 0.25 million barrels a day in 2025. This is due to capacity expansion among Chinese national oil companies as well as the ramping up of the private mega Yulong refining plant." Energy Aspects predicts that teapot runs will continue to be resilient and the start-up Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Company will support Chinese runs by increasing them by 250,000 bpd this year. China produced 4.19 million barrels per day (bpd) and processed?17.8 millions tons of crude in December 2025. Both figures are down from November. The total crude oil production grew 1.5% over the past year to 216.05 mt, or 4.32 million bpd. This was due to state oil companies increasing drilling offshore and unconventional resources. Data also showed that natural gas production increased 6.2% to a record 261.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) last year. According to Sunday's official data, gas imports – including piped gas, and?liquefied nataral gas (LNG), shipped in tankers-- dropped 2.8% on the year. This was mainly due to a 10.6% decline in LNG imports.
Andy Home: Tin price bubble is a source of trouble and toil for the global industry
London and Shanghai markets have seen a surge in tin prices, which are now at all-time highs.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the rally is "unreasonable". Last month, it warned all parties to "avoid following trends blindly".
Beijing's warning has not deterred Chinese traders from chasing prices higher and higher.
On Thursday, the volume of trading in the?tin contracts on Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) exceeded one million metric tonnes. This is more than double the annual global physical consumption.
Tin is in a clear speculative boom, which will burst as soon as trends change. The mismatch between physical market size and interest in investing foreshadows future volatility.
Not just for tin. The current tidal waves of investor purchases washing through the industrial-metals sector may be a sign for other metal supply chain.
EXUBERANCE IRRATIONALE
Since several months, the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin contract has been on the rise. However, this week it exploded as Chinese investors brought with them their financial power to the rally.
On Tuesday, LME's three-month metal surpassed the previous price peak of March 2022 at $51,000 a metric ton and soared to $54,760 per metric ton by Wednesday.
The main narrative is a?shortfall in supply.
Tin's structural issues with supply are well-known. Global mine production is concentrated in too few nations and heavily dependent on frontier jurisdictions, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo or the semi-autonomous Wa State of Myanmar.
This rally is not a good time.
In recent months, the supply of tin has improved.
Since the M23 insurgency was in danger of overrunning the Bisie mine in Congo a year earlier, the threat has diminished. After a successful third quarter, Alphamin Resources raised its production forecast for the year.
After a long absence, the giant Man Maw Mine in Myanmar has also begun to show signs of renewed productivity. China imported 7,190 tonnes of tin-based raw materials from Myanmar in November. This was the highest monthly total since August 2024.
According to the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association, Indonesia will continue to crack down on illegal mining, but the upside is that official sector production quotas are expected to increase from 53,000 ton in 2025 to 60 000 ton in 2026.
There is no shortage of refined tin right now.
Metal producers and traders have contributed significant amounts to the recent price rise. The combined stocks of the LME and ShFE rose from 11,000 tones at the end October to more than 19,000 tons.
Inventory was less than 5,000 tons at the previous peak of 2022.
When China's metals regulator describes the tin price's extreme rise as "unreasonable", they may be right.
LIQUIDITY MISMATCH
Paraphrasing economist John Maynard Keynes: a market may remain "unreasonable", longer than you are able to remain solvent.
Investors can have a large impact on the price, especially if there is a small market like tin.
Shanghai is a clear example of this.
China's commodities markets have been characterized by such speculative booms for a long time. It was alumina last year.
Chinese authorities are in a well-oiled firefighting mode. They have raised?trading rates, especially the cost of intraday trading, and limited position sizes for nonmembers.
Tin's story of limited supply and increasing use as a semiconductor-solder has not only attracted the Chinese.
Over the past few years, the number of funds participating in the London Tin Market has steadily increased.
The investment fund's long position reached a record high of 2,887 contracts in 2021 or early 2022 when tin prices were at their highest. This is equivalent to 14,435 tonnes. The investment fund long position reached a record of 5,753 contracts or 28,765 tons at one point last month.
The liquidity rush has increased volatility in a market that is known for its wild price swings.
Futures frenzy is causing real problems in the supply chain, as consumers and producers struggle to cover their margins.
When does price risk take precedence over liquidity risk? How long can you remain solvent?
FUNDS AND FUNDAMENTALS
Tin was not a popular metal a few years back. Most fund managers did not invest in tin because the market was too small both for physical volume and futures activity.
This is changing, as the world begins to realize the centrality of tin in the Internet of Things. No circuit boards, no internet. In our hyper-connected, connected world, there is very little more.
The result is that too much money floods into a market unprepared to handle it.
CNMIA is the voice of the world's biggest refined tin producers and users. It is very clear on the dangers posed to the present exuberance.
The rapid price rise driven by funds has diverged from industry fundamentals and magnified market risks, harming the global chain of industry.
Tin's dramatic story may be a timely reminder for other metals in demand, such as copper, as fund money floods the industrial metals sector in search of other hard assets than gold and silver.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
(source: Reuters)