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Rain and snow wreak havoc on the Balkans, causing one death in Albania
A man drowned in Durres, a city in the province of Albania. Emergency teams were working around the clock to rescue dozens of people trapped by flooded homes. Since Sunday, the Western Balkans has been affected by snow and other winter conditions, including power outages, road closures, and water shortages. The defence ministry reported that emergency?teams used boats to rescue villagers trapped inside flooded homes in the area around Fier and Vlora in southwest Albania after the Viosa river rose above 9 metre height. According to the interior ministry, a 55-year old municipal worker, who went missing on Tuesday, was found dead in a Durres drainage canal, likely swept away by current. Emergency services are working to remove the water from 800 homes and buildings after sheltering 300 people at army? and police facilities. On Thursday, in neighbouring Kosovo where large areas of land were flooded over the past few days, rain was replaced by snow. Bosnia was also hit by snow. It is difficult to operate in this way, as the streets are not swept, particularly for pedestrians," said Armin Hasanovic, an?Sarajevo resident. On Thursday morning, a temperature of -14°C (7°F) was recorded in Zagreb. Meteorologists predict a cold snap on Sunday that will be even more severe. Reporting by Florion Goga in Albania, Fatos bytyci, in Kosovo, Antonio Bronic, in Zagreb and Amel Emric, in Sarajevo. Writing by Daria Sucic, Editing by Alison Williams.
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US CPC predicts La Nina transition in early 2026 with 75% probability
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which is based in the United States, said that La Nina persists, and there's a 75% probability of a shift to ENSO neutral conditions between January-March. "Atmospheric anomalies remained consistent with La Nina across the tropical Pacific Ocean." The U.S. forecaster said that for most of the month easterly winds anomalies remained over the central equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly winds continued across the equatorial Pacific. Why it's important La Nina is a part of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, which affects the water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which can increase the risk of flooding and droughts, which could impact crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to more consistent weather and possibly better crop yields. KEY QUOTES The current La Nina has weakened and ENSO is expected to return neutral in either February or March. El Nino conditions could develop later in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, according to AccuWeather's lead international forecaster, Jason Nicholls. Donald Keeney is an agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather. He said that "the return to neutral will most likely result in wetter conditions for winter wheat in Argentina." Keeney said that it would also lead to wetter conditions on the southern and central Plains of the U.S. in the later summer. This would improve the outlook for the late growth in hard red winter wheat, corn, and soybeans. Matthew Biggin is a senior analyst with BMI, an Fitch Solutions company. "While there are isolated individual market challenges, our expectation of a weak La Nina will limit the impacts,"? he said. CONTEXT Indonesian climate official Ardhasena. Sopaheluwakan stated that a La Nina weather pattern which is known to bring more rain, would be weaker by 2026. It should end at the end of first quarter. Two major grain exchanges in Argentina said that heavy rainfall is forecast for Argentina's agricultural belt, which will increase moisture levels over the next few days. This will benefit soy and corn at critical stages of development. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported on Tuesday that atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the central equatorial Pacific have consistently shown La Nina, albeit in a relatively weak form, since mid-to late September. The Bureau forecasts that temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely remain at La Nina level until late summer, before returning to neutral. Reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru
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"US withdrawal from key UN climate treaty is criticized as self sabotage".
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said that the United States' decision not to sign a key U.N. climate treaty was a "colossal own goal" which would harm its economy, jobs and living standards. Stiell stated in a statement that "while all other nations are moving forward together, the latest step backward from global leadership can only harm the U.S. Economy, Jobs and Living Standards, as wildfires and?floods become more severe, and mega-storms, droughts, and floods worsen." "It's a colossal goal that will make the U.S.?less secure and less prosperous." Donald Trump, the U.S. president, who has been a vocal critic of renewable energy and called climate change "a con job" or a hoax?, went further than his previous actions of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement by also removing the U.S. from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UNFCCC requires wealthy industrialized nations to adopt policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to publicly report their emissions. The US also resigned from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a key scientific body of the?UN that deals with climate change. Scientists from the United States played a major role in the IPCC assessments. This move was criticized by European officials and environmental groups.
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Legal questions arise from Trump's withdrawal of the UN Climate Treaty
Some legal experts believe that the Trump administration's decision, made by the Trump Administration, to withdraw from the U.N. Climate Treaty, which was unanimously adopted in the U.S. Senate more than 30 year ago, could be illegal. They say Congress would have to approve the withdrawal. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will withdraw from dozens international and U.N. organizations. This includes the U.N. The Framework Convention on Climate Change and the scientific Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are both "opposed to U.S. National Interests" by focusing on oil, gas, and mining development. Trump, who is a vocal opponent of renewable energy and has called climate change "a con job" and hoax, went further than his previous actions of withdrawing the U.S., the world's largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, from the Paris Climate Agreement by removing the nation from the UNFCCC. He also removed the U.S. from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a key scientific body that deals with climate change, and other U.N. organizations focused on the environment, arts, health and women's right. Some experts question the President's power to withdraw International law experts have said that the president's move on Wednesday, which was unprecedented,?raises significant legal questions. Case law is not clear as to whether a President can unilaterally withdraw a country from a ratified treaty by a Senate majority. Jean Su, director of energy justice at the Center for Biological Diversity, said that the U.S. must exit the UNFCCC using the same procedure as it entered. The Center for Biological Diversity's energy justice director Jean Su said that if this lawless act is allowed to stand, it could permanently exclude the U.S. from climate diplomacy. Su stated that the CBD is evaluating whether it should take the U.S. Government to court over this. White House officials weren't immediately available to answer questions about the legality. The U.S. would then 'withdraw' from all global climate talks, including the Paris Climate Agreement. Last year, the U.S. skipped the annual U.N. climate summit in Belem in Brazil for the very first time in 30 years. Trump also announced his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord a year earlier. It is the only nation to leave the UNFCCC. UNFCCC requires wealthy industrialized nations to adopt policies to limit greenhouse gases emissions, report publicly their emissions and provide funding for poorer countries to address climate change. Curtis Bradley is a professor of law at the University?of Chicago Law School. He said that while the rules for ratifying treaties are clearly defined, those for withdrawing from them are not. Some presidents have used this authority to withdraw from international treaties and agreements without Congressional approval. Ronald Reagan, a Republican president, withdrew America from UNESCO over concerns of perceived politicalization. Bradley said Congress can pass legislation to prevent a president unilaterally withdrawing a treaty. Congress passed a law to prevent a future administration withdrawing from NATO in 2023. He said that given the polarization of climate change policy within Congress, it was unlikely for this to happen. HOW EASY IS THE RE-ENTRY INTO A TREATY? The legal experts also differ on how difficult it will be to rejoin UNFCCC. Some?legal organizations believe that in order for a future administration to return, they would have to start anew and get the two-thirds of support required by the U.S. Senate to ratify a treaty. Some experts believe that the U.S. could easily rejoin the EU after 90 days if it uses the same "advice and consent" method that was used by the Senate to unanimously ratify this treaty in 1992, under Republican President George H.W. Bush. Recent years, achieving a majority of two-thirds in the highly polarized U.S. Congress was near impossible, particularly on issues that divide people. The U.S. entered into over 90% of international agreements using different mechanisms, which rely on executive power or existing domestic laws. Sue Biniaz is a former deputy special envoy on climate change under the Biden administration. She said that she was in the camp of scholars who believed that joining the UNFCCC would be "seamless", because it had been unanimously approved by the Senate in 1992. She said that there are many future paths for joining the important climate agreements. (Reporting and Editing by Frances Kerry, Valerie Volcovici)
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GLOBAL-MARKETS-European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events
On?Thursday the euro defence stocks reached a new record and both oil and dollar prices gained ground as traders remained uncertain about geopolitical developments in Venezuela and Greenland. Two oil tankers linked to Venezuela were seized in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with Denmark's leaders next week in order discuss Greenland. The?highest?STOXX index of aerospace and defense stocks in Europe was up 1% on its fifth consecutive day. The index is up 13% so far this year, and has risen more than 260% in the time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Wall Street to start with a subdued start Wall Street is expected to start with a subdued tone after the increase in unemployment claims. However, arms manufacturers are also pointing upwards after President Donald Trump called for an increase of two-thirds in the U.S. Military budget on Wednesday. The dollar was held back by mixed U.S. economic data, which kept the bulls at bay ahead of the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Peter McLean is the head of Stonehage Fleming Investment Management's multi-asset portfolio solution. While it is unlikely that we will see military action in Greenland, there is a clear impetus for increased defence spending in Europe. OIL CLAWS ABOVE 60 $ Brent crude prices fell this week due to the possibility of increased Venezuelan crude production, but Brent climbed back up above $60 per barrel on Thursday. The price of crude oil rose by 0.5%, to $56.30 per barrel. Top U.S. Officials said Wednesday that the country must control Venezuela's oil revenue and sales indefinitely in order to stabilize the economy of the latter, rebuild its oil industry and ensure it is acting in America's interest. Daniel Hynes is ANZ's senior commodities strategist. He said that the market's reaction to Trump's comments about Venezuelan oil control was a bit misplaced. The U.S.'s control over oil sales could mean that sanctions or restrictions remain in place for the foreseeable future, which would be bullish on oil prices. "I suspect that's why prices are recovering." Global Markets Benefit from a Robust Start to the Year Stocks in other markets have mostly fallen after a positive start to the new year that has seen global markets rise. S&P 500 futures, Dow and Nasdaq were all down more than 0.2% by early afternoon. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.4% despite a surprising rise in German industrial order and a drop in the unemployment rate in the Euro Zone. Nikkei, the Japanese stock market index, fell 1.6% over night amid increasing tensions between Japan and China. China announced that it would launch an anti-dumping investigation into Japanese dichlorosilane (a chemical used to make chips). It seems that the Asian markets have taken a break after a very strong start in 2026." Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist at Saxo. He also pointed to China's export ban for dual-use to Japan and talked about potential risks associated with rare-earth elements. PAYROLLS DUE FRIDAY Investors digested also the increase in U.S. initial unemployment claims, ahead of Friday's highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report. Goldman Sachs analysts said that they expected a rise of?70,000 above the consensus in December's non-farm payrolls, and also predicted a slight decline in unemployment to 4.5%. The data released on Wednesday painted a mixed image. JOLTS figures for the labour market bolstered "no fire, no hire"? views, while ISM's services index hit a 14-month high. The market's expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2019 were not altered by the readings. The yields on the 10-year Treasury were slightly lower at 4.16%, while Germany's bunds yields were just above 2.83%. The pound sterling has fallen to $1.344, as UK retailers warn of a difficult year ahead. Meanwhile, the yen, which is Japan's currency, rose to 156.67 dollars per yen, and gold, a safe haven, fell 0.5% to $4420 an ounce. McLean, of Stonehage and Fleming, said that the direction of bond rates is one of the biggest risk factors for this year. "If the 10-year Treasury rate falls below 4 and continues to fall, that would be very positive," McLean said. VENEZUELA'S DEBT RESTRUCTURING IS 'CLOSER - TO THE BEGINNING? Venezuela's defaulted bonds finally cooled down after their near 40% increase following the weekend's U.S. Capture of President Nicolas Maduro, which fuelled investor hope for a massively complicated debt restructuring. Richard Cooper, a former bondholder and restructuring partner at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, said that a restructuring was "closer to beginning than six months ago," but it is still far from the start. He said it will be hard to get started "until we know what the cost of reviving the oil sector is and who is in power."
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China restricts rare earth exports after dual-use ban to Japanese companies, WSJ reports
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that China had begun to restrict exports to Japanese firms of rare earths, and powerful magnets that contain them, after Beijing banned the exports of dual-use items to Japanese military. Journal reported that China's restrictions are not only limited to defence industries, but apply to a wide range of Japanese industries. China's Commerce Ministry said Thursday that the export ban for dual-use products to Japan would only affect military companies. "Civilian users won't be affected," said He?Yadong to reporters. China announced on Tuesday a ban?on exporting to Japan so-called dual use goods that could have military applications. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that China has begun restricting the exports of "heavy rare earths" to Japanese companies, as well as powerful magnets that contain them. Two exporters from?China were cited. The Journal quoted another unnamed source familiar with Chinese government decision-making as saying that the review of export license applications across Japanese industry had been halted, and didn't just target Japanese defence firms. Dual-use products are software, goods or technologies with both civilian and military uses. Some rare earth magnets are used to power motors found in car parts like side mirrors and speakers. The report could not be confirmed immediately. The Chinese commerce ministry and the foreign ministry didn't immediately respond to requests from the Journal for comments. Beijing and Tokyo's relations have deteriorated since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi stated in November that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could lead to a military response. Beijing called this remark "provocative". China has a list of about 1,100 dual-use products and technologies for which manufacturers need a license to export overseas, regardless of the final user. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton in Bengaluru, Mihika Sharma from Bengaluru)
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Why do French farmers drive their tractors to Paris?
French farmers brought tractors into central Paris and closed roads throughout the country in order to call for government action on a number of grievances. Here are a few of the issues which have sparked the protest movement, and the initial responses from the government and European Union. Why are farmers protesting? Farmers in France, EU's largest agricultural producer, struggle to make a profitable due to high costs, excessive red tape, and unfair competition by countries inside and outside of the EU who do not have the same strict standards for production. MERCOSUR Farmers in France and Europe are dissatisfied with a proposed trade agreement between the EU, and Mercosur, the South American bloc. The farmers claim that the proposed deal would result in cheap imports from South America, including beef, sugar and ethanol, which do not meet EU standards. The agreement could be signed as soon as next week. It includes a section that is devoted to agriculture, with import quotas being established for certain farm products coming from Mercosur nations - Argentina Brazil Paraguay and Uruguay. These imports will either be duty-free or have reduced levies. The deal also gives EU farmers greater access to South American market, which could boost exports such as wine and olive oil. Although Paris won last-minute concessions including safeguards on sensitive farm products like beef and sugar, the government and farmers are still opposed to the deal. They claim that imports should meet the same standards as EU produced. French Agriculture Minister 'Annie Genevard' said France will continue to fight against the deal at the European Parliament where it must also be approved. CATTLE DISEASE Some French farmers in the south blame the government as well for the way it has handled the lumpy skin disease that affects cattle. This includes the culling of herds after the virus was detected. The disease is characterized by painful lumps of skin, fever, and weakened animals. The government has started a vaccination campaign for all cattle in the affected areas. It said the disease would wipe out 10% of the national herd without intervention. ENVIRONMENT, RED TAPE In the area of environment, farmers are unhappy with both EU subsidy regulations and France's alleged "overcomplicated" implementation of EU policies. France is said to have stricter regulations than other EU members, such as a ban on pesticides for sugar beets. They also claim that France has a more bureaucratic approach towards water usage and fertilizer pollution. In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and trade tensions between the United States and China, green policies are seen to be in conflict with goals of becoming more self-sufficient. The farmers blame excessive regulation for the decline in French agricultural exports, income and output. France could post its first trade deficit in food and farm products in over 50 years by 2025. The grain growers in France, who were once the richest producers, have seen their profits fall in the last three years due to the global glut of grains and the rising costs for energy, fertilisers, and fertilizers. The EU agreed on Wednesday to reduce duties on imported fertilizers and exempt them of a carbon tax to avoid further cost increases. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Gus Trompiz and Sybille De La Hamaide)
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Reliance Industries, India's largest oil company, will be considering buying Venezuelan crude
Reliance Industries, the operator of the largest refinery in the world, said on Thursday that it would 'consider' buying Venezuelan oil, if allowed to sell to non-US customers. In response to an email seeking comments, a spokesperson for Reliance Industries said: "We are waiting for clarity on the access of Venezuelan oil by non US buyers and we will consider buying the oil in compliance." email seeking comments. Caracas has reached an agreement with Washington to export 30-50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to the United States, worth up to $2 billion. Reliance stopped purchasing Venezuelan crude oil in March 2026, after the United States announced 25% tariffs on countries that bought crude from this South American nation. The conglomerate got its last parcel of Venezuelan crude oil in May. Reliance’s two refineries located in the western Gujarat state are able to process?about 1 million barrels of crude oil per day. The complexity of these plants allows them to process heavier and cheaper crudes, such as Merey oil from Venezuela. (Reporting and editing by Nidhh Verma)
Andy Home: The US tariff on copper is draining China's warehouses.
China's refined copper exports surged to records levels in the last year, as the world’s top buyer found themselves in unusual competition with the U.S.
CME's U.S. Copper contract continues to command an impressive premium over the London Metal Exchange's (LME) international copper price as the "market prices" in anticipation of possible U.S. Tariffs. The decision was deferred to June of this year.
The ripple effect of U.S. metal delivery premiums is now emptying China’s bonded storage zones.
China's exports jumped from 698,500 tons to 143,000 in November. This is already a record.
The total for November included 57.700 tons of goods headed to the U.S. All were sourced from stocks stored in bonded warehouses located at Chinese ports, such as Shanghai.
The lingering threat of tariffs continues to disrupt global trading patterns.
CHINA'S BONDED STOCK RAIDED AGAIN
Last year, the arbitrage between the CME and LME was so blown out that traders had a unique opportunity to make money by shipping copper to the U.S.
CME copper stocks have exploded to 450,000 tonnes, more than LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange combined.
LME stocks for U.S. delivery of desired brands, notably Chilean metal, are exhausted. Chinese and Russian copper made up?95% or the registered inventory as of the end of November.
Metal that was physically unloaded, but had not been cleared by customs to be delivered to mainland buyers has come back to the forefront of attention.
This is the second raid on this bonded inventory.
China exported or redirected 120,000 tons (or more) of refined copper from February to July last year when tariffs on imports were a certainty.
The tariff trade was stifled by Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on copper, but only on refined copper, in July.
Since then, traders have been betting that the tariff threat will only be deferred.
The increase in November shipments of goods from Chinese ports to United States is "a testament to the renewed appeal of U.S. deliveries."
Plugging the Gaps
China's portside copper inventory will also leave to plug any gaps that may have arisen elsewhere. Traders are stripping the supply chain of all brands of metal?that can be delivered in accordance with the CME contract, to ensure an?effortless arbitrage trade.
Outbound flows in November included 16,500 tonnes bound for Italy, as well as smaller tons destined for Germany and Sweden.
The rush to get products to the U.S. has caused availability to fall and physical prices to rise everywhere else.
Aurubis, Europe's largest producer, has increased its premium for sales on term this year from $228 to $315 per ton above the LME base price.
Codelco, a Chilean state-owned producer, is charging its European clients $325 per tonne and its Chinese customers $350 per tonne. This reflects the fierce competition between traders for Codelco's brands.
China is still the largest copper importer in the world, but the increase in outbound shipments has caused its net pull of units from other countries to decrease by 11% during the first eleven months of 2025.
It has also struggled to compete with the U.S. premium brands when it comes CME-deliverable products.
China's imports from Chilean metal dropped by 43% on an annual basis between January and November, while those from Peruvian metal declined by 50%.
Chinese buyers are increasingly dependent on imports from Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which represented 37% and 11% of the total imports during the first 11 months of 2025.
SIGNAL CONFUSION
In recent years, it's difficult to tell how much copper is stored in China's warehouses.
Metals are classified as imports by customs departments, but they only become statistically visible when they're reshipped to another country. In that case, it appears on the export side under a special code.
It's obvious that there are fewer imports now than before Trump proposed tariffs in February.
The stripping of China’s port stocks shows how the threat of U.S. Tariffs has impacted global copper flows.
This is also a problem for assessing the current state of a market where prices are hitting all-time highs.
The global exchange inventory was above 800,000 tonnes for the first since 2013 which could dampen the bullish market exuberance.
The CME is where copper continues to arrive daily, and this has been the main driver for higher visible inventories. The CME, where copper is still arriving daily, has been the driver of higher visible stocks.
The physical supply chain as well as the price signal of inventory are still being distorted by the tectonic movement of copper stocks from Europe to the U.S.
As long as Trump's tariff threat causes a CME premium large enough to cover physical shipment costs, the drain on availability elsewhere, including China’s port stocks, could become more acute.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
(source: Reuters)