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Markets await Iran response as gold falls amid dollar gains
The gold price fell on Monday, as investors favored the dollar after the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear sites at the weekend. Markets are closely monitoring Iran's reaction. As of 0341 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $3,362.29 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.2% to $3378. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites resulted in safe-haven buying flows for the dollar in the currency markets. This USD increase had pegged back gold and caused a subdued performance despite the risks arising from the conflict. Gold became more expensive to other currency holders as the dollar increased by 0.2%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, raised on Sunday the issue of a regime-change in Iran in the wake of the U.S. strikes that targeted key military sites in Iran over the weekend. Senior officials in the Trump administration warned Tehran to refrain from retaliation. The U.S. dropped bunker-busting bombs weighing 30,000 pounds onto the mountain that overlooks Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site. Iran and Israel have continued to exchange missile attacks. Israeli military spokeswoman said Israeli fighter planes struck military targets in west Iran. Oil prices briefly reached five-month highs on Monday, and shares fell in Asia. But there was no panic selling. In the Federal Reserve's latest report on monetary policy to Congress, published on Friday, it was stated that U.S. inflation remained elevated, and the labor markets were solid. According to Wang Tao, technical analyst, the spot gold price may test support at $3348 an ounce. A break below this level could lead the way towards $3324. Other metals rose in price as well. Spot silver increased 0.2% to $36.07 an ounce. Platinum edged up 0.1% to $1.269.17. Palladium gained 0.2%, to $1.046.62.
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Dalian Iron Ore reaches a new high in a week on the back of improved China demand
Dalian iron-ore futures prices reached their highest level in over a week on Monday, boosted by improved short-term prospects for steelmaking ingredient China. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 0.5% higher, at 706 Yuan ($98.22). In the morning session, prices reached 709.5 yuan - their highest level since June 13. The benchmark July Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange rose 0.15% to $93.65 per ton. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased 0.24% on a weekly basis to 2.422 millions tons as of 20th June. Everbright Futures, a broker, said: "Hot metal production is expected to remain stable in the short-term, which will support iron ore prices." Broker Galaxy Futures stated that the construction materials consumption in China has already weakened as we enter the off-season. The rainy season, which usually begins in June, has already begun and is further dampening the demand. Mysteel, in a separate report, said that the capacity utilisation rate for China's electric arc furnace steelmakers dropped 2.2% from week to week to a low of 54.5%. It attributed this to persistently negative margins. Steelhome data shows that the total stockpiles in China of iron ore increased by 0.9% on a weekly basis to 134.6 millions tons as of 20 June. The dollar index rose 0.12% Monday, mainly due to safe-haven demand. Dollar-denominated investments are less affordable for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Coke and coking coal, which are both used to make steel, traded in a sideways fashion. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. Hot-rolled coil, wire rod and rebar all fell around 0.2%. Stainless steel also lost 0.4%.
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After Congo extended its export ban, China cobalt prices hit a 3-month high.
The price of cobalt in the top consumer China rose to a three-month high Monday as the Democratic Republic of Congo extended its export ban, rekindling supply concerns. Congo, world's largest cobalt producer, has extended its ban for another three months, after having imposed a four month restriction in February, to reduce the oversupply of this material used in electric vehicle batteries. The cobalt futures contract with the most activity on China's Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange rose more than 9%, reaching its highest level since March 14, at 254 yuan (US$35.34) a kilogram. Analysts at Guosen Metal stated that "the seven-month ban on exports by Congo will reduce global supply of cobalt by over 100,000 metric tonnes and will cause a shortage in supply in the domestic market." Export ban was caused by the cobalt price hitting historically low levels. This was due to weak demand by automakers, and miners increasing output of copper (from which cobalt can be extracted as a co-product) in order to take advantage of high prices. Reports earlier in the month stated that the Congo government had suspended the export of battery materials. Glencore declared force majeure for some of its cobalt deliveries. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Sumana Niandy; editing by Sumana Naandy.
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South Korea's industry ministry raises concern over US attack on Iran
On Monday, the vice minister of industry in South Korea expressed concerns about the possible impact that recent U.S. attacks on Iran could have on the country's economy. At a meeting held to monitor monthly exports by the Ministry of Industry, Moon Shin-hak, first vice minister for industry, said: "As Middle East situation enters new phase because of the U.S. strike on Iran's nucleus facilities, we are concerned about the impact it will have on our exports." South Korea has Asia's largest economy, and is heavily dependent on exports. On Sunday, officials held an urgent security meeting to assess potential economic impacts of the U.S. war action. Seoul's dependence on crude oil imports - 72% of all imports - from the Middle East has increased. The oil prices rose on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. Market participants are preparing for more price increases amid fears of a possible Iranian retaliation that could include the closure of Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of world crude oil supply passes. His office announced earlier that South Korean President Lee Jae Myung would not be attending the NATO summit in this week due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East crisis. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Ju-min Park)
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Aluminum outperforms Copper on Energy Cost Concerns amid US-Iran Tensions
The most traded contracts on London and Shanghai exchanges surged as U.S. attacks on Iranian military sites pushed up energy prices, a major cost factor for this energy-intensive metal. LME's three-month contract for aluminium rose up to 3.3%, to $2.634.5 per ton. However, it then eased to $2.580.50 (up 1.22%) by 0101 GMT. The SHFE's most-traded aluminum contract rose 0.54% to 20,525 yuan per metric ton ($2,859.23). Comparatively, LME copper rose 0.16%, to $9,648.5 yuan, while SHFE copper grew 0.31%, at 78.420 yuan. The aluminum price is sensitive to energy prices. It has therefore reacted strongly to oil costs. Now, the question is whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, said a Beijing metals analyst of a futures firm, who requested anonymity. He said that the Strait of Hormuz was crucial for the Middle East's bauxite, alumina, and power shipments. Power accounts for 40% of total costs in aluminium melting. U.S. president Donald Trump raised the issue of regime change in Iran on Sunday following U.S. attacks against key military sites at the weekend. Senior officials in his government warned Tehran against retaliation. Brent crude futures rose 2.44% to $78.89 per barrel as of 1122 GMT. This was the highest price since January. LME Zinc contract rose 0.5% to $2643 per ton. Lead increased 0.1%, to $1994.5. Tin fell 0.1%, to $32,650. SHFE tin rose 1.2%, to 263,950 Yuan per ton. Lead increased by 0.4%, to 16,925 Yuan. Zinc went up by 0.3%, to 21,980 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0715 France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0730 Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0800 EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0830 UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI June 1345 US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash June 1400 US Existing Home Sales May
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Oil reaches five-month high following US attack on key Iranian nuclear sites
The oil prices rose on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. This was due to the United States joining Israel to attack Iran's nuclear sites. Brent crude futures were up $1.92, or 2.49%, at $78.93 per barrel as of 17:00 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude advanced $1.89, or 2.56%, to $75.73. The two contracts had risen by over 3% in the previous session, to $81.40, and $78.40 respectively. They reached five-month highs, before giving back some of their gains. Prices rose after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with strikes last weekend. Trump joined an Israeli assault as conflict escalated in the Middle East, and Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude oil producer. Market participants are expecting further price increases amid growing fears that a retaliatory move by Iran could include the closure of Strait of Hormuz through which approximately a fifth of world crude oil supply passes. Press TV in Iran reported that the Iranian Parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait. Iran has threatened to close strait in the past, but never actually followed through. Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said that the risks of damage to oil pipelines have multiplied. Even though there are other pipeline routes to the Strait of Hormuz, some crude oil will not be able to be exported if it becomes inaccessible. She added that shippers would increasingly avoid the region. Goldman Sachs stated in a report published on Sunday that Brent oil could temporarily peak at $110 a barrel if oil flow through the waterway was halved over a period of a month and remained down by 10% the next 11 months. The bank assumed that there would be no disruption in the oil and gas supply. It added global incentives for preventing a large and sustained disruption. Brent has increased by 13% since the conflict started on June 13 while WTI is up around 10%. Analysts said that the current geopolitical premium will not last long without a tangible disruption in supply. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank's commodity strategy wrote on Sunday that the unwinding some long positions following a recent rally in oil prices could cap any upside. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar in Singapore, Christopher Cushing and Siyi Liu)
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Oil reaches five-month high following US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites
The oil prices rose on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. This was due to the supply concerns caused by Washington's decision to attack Iran's nuclear sites with Israel. Brent crude futures were up $1.88, or 2.44%, at $78.89 per barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude advanced $1.87, or 2.53% to $75.71. The two contracts had risen by over 3% in the previous session, to respective highs of $81.40 and $79.40 (five-month highs), before reversing some gains. Prices rose after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with strikes last weekend. Trump joined an Israeli assault as conflict escalated in the Middle East, and Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude oil producer. Market participants are expecting further price increases amid growing fears that a retaliatory move by Iran could include the closure of Strait of Hormuz through which approximately a fifth of world crude oil supply passes. Press TV in Iran reported that the Iranian Parliament approved a plan to close the Strait. Iran has threatened to close the Strait in the past, but never actually followed through. Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said that the risks of damage to oil pipelines have multiplied. Even though there are other pipeline routes to the Strait of Hormuz, some crude oil volumes will not be able to be exported if it becomes inaccessible. She added that shippers would increasingly avoid the region. Brent has increased by 13% since the conflict started on June 13 while WTI is up around 10%. Analysts said that the current geopolitical premium on risk is unlikely to continue without a tangible disruption in supply. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank's commodity strategy wrote on Sunday that the unwinding some of the positions taken after the recent price rally may cap the upside in oil prices. (Reporting from Siyi Liu, Singapore; Editing and proofreading by Himani Sarkar.)
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IAEA: US attack on Iran's Isfahan nuclear site has destroyed entrances to tunnels, according to the IAEA
U.S. strikes on the Isfahan complex, which houses Iran's vast uranium-enriched stockpile, caused damage to the tunnels that store a portion of the uranium. The U.N. nuclear watchdog confirmed this Sunday. The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a statement saying that "we have established that the entrances to the underground tunnels on the site were affected." Isfahan is the site where officials have said that a large amount of Iran's highly enriched uranium is stored. Rafael Grossi, chief of IAEA, confirmed in a statement made to the U.N. Security Council shortly after the IAEA's statement that the tunnels were part of an area used to store the stockpile. He said that the entrances to the tunnels for storing enriched material had been damaged. Officials in Iran have stated that they will take measures to protect their country's nuclear materials without notifying the IAEA. Grossi said Iran can do this while respecting its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Agency and Iran can agree on any special measures that Iran takes to protect its nuclear material and equipment. Grossi told Security Council that this was possible. (Reporting and editing by Francois Murphy, Chris Reese, Ni Williams)
US tariffs to cripple India’s diamond industry, affecting jobs and exports
Surat's diamond polishing centre is experiencing a wave of anxiety as the U.S. Tariffs threaten the gem and jewellery exports of India, putting the livelihoods of tens of thousands workers at risk.
The United States, who takes over 30% of South Asia's gems and jewellery exports set a reciprocal tariff of 27% on it on Friday, as demand in other important markets, such as China and the Middle East and Europe, is easing.
Dinesh Nadiya is the chairman of Indian Diamond Institute in Surat. He said that tariffs would have a major impact on the demand for diamonds. Job losses are likely to occur, at least over the short-term.
Surat, Gujarat's second largest city, is the home of Narendra Modi. It processes and polishes 80% of all rough diamonds in the world. India accounts for 9 out of 10 diamonds that are processed worldwide.
The diamond market has come to a standstill, with more than 10,000 traders and broker gathering each day to try to determine how the situation will develop in the next few months.
Mansukh Mangukiya has been a diamond dealer for over 50 years. He said that the current conditions are even worse than the financial crisis of 2008.
Sevanti Shah of Venus Jewels said that smaller manufacturers would be the most affected by a slowdown. "Many will have to close down."
In fiscal year 2023/24, India exported gems and jewelry worth $32 billion to the United States, which amounted to nearly $10 billion or 30.4% of that total.
Third largest export to U.S.
India exports gems and jewellery to the United States in third place after electronic and engineering goods. This sector employs millions of people, including artisans.
The Surat Diamond Bourse was inaugurated in 2023 by Modi to create thousands of jobs and act as a hub for trade. However, the business outlook is not good.
It was billed as the largest office building in the world, surpassing even the Pentagon.
Diamond dealers stated that the industry would seek to find alternative markets in order to compensate for the lost demand from the U.S.
Shaunak Parikh said that the sudden drop in demand for rough diamonds could result in a reduction of imports.
Parikh stated that exporters are trying to get as much cargo to the United States as they can before the new tariffs go into effect. Orders that cannot be delivered sooner may be cancelled, or put on hold.
Vipul Shah said that the tariffs will also increase U.S. diamond prices and crimp demand.
Chetan Navadiya is facing an uncertain future as a diamond producer turned contractor.
Navadiya stated, "I lost my company due to the slowdown in the market." "I had to take on job work in order to survive. But even these contracts may not arrive by now because of U.S. tariffs."
(source: Reuters)