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India's summer crops planting accelerates as the monsoon returns
A revival of monsoon rainfall has led to a rapid increase in the planting of summer-sown grains such as rice, cotton and soybeans across a large part of India. This has helped reduce a?earlier deficit in sowing caused by?below normal rainfall. India is the largest rice exporter in the world, with about 40% of the global total. It's also the biggest importer for vegetable oils like palm oil, sunflower oil and soyoil. Indian farmers usually sow summer crops between June and July, after the annual'monsoon' reaches Kerala in the south. The monsoon was three days late this year and its progress across the western farming regions stalled about two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the summer crop sowing at the end June was almost a quarter less than it had been a year before. However, the'shortfall' has now narrowed down to less than 5 percent. The data from the Ministry showed that farmers had planted summer-sown crop on 78.7 millions hectares by July 24 compared to 82.6 million acres a year ago. Data showed that the area under rice cultivation was 23.4 million ha, down from 24 million ha last year. We waited for rain to transplant the seedlings. Krishna Beuraa is a farmer in Konark, Odisha. "After we received good rains this month, paddy planting began," he said. India's monsoon rainfall deficit has decreased to 16%, from nearly 40% by the end of June. However, some regions still face rainfall deficits as high as 40%. Farmers planted soybeans in 11.4 million acres, down 3% compared to a year earlier. The area of corn planted was 7.8 million acres, down 9.7% compared to the same time last year. Cotton planted area dropped 4%, to 9.87m hectares. Sugar cane increased 1.5%, to 5.76m hectares. (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar; Jatindra dash and Rajendra Jadhav)
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Gold falls as dollar strength weighs on gold; attention turns to Fed meeting
The gold price?fell Tuesday as a result of a stronger dollar, while markets awaited the Federal Reserve's next policy decision to get clues about interest rate expectations. Gold spot fell by 0.6% at $4,051.07 an ounce to $726 GMT on Saturday after rising by as much as 1% Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.6% to $4051.60. Dollars held near a month-high, making bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders other currencies. Ilya Spirak, global macro manager at Tastylive, said that the market was just waiting for Fed signals. The Fed's?two day policy meeting will be concluded on Wednesday. The Fed's expectations to keep interest rates steady are at 62%. According to CME FedWatch however, 38% of market participants anticipate at least a 25% rate increase. The markets are pricing in a 81% chance that the central bank will raise rates at its meeting in September. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, called on the Fed on Monday to lower interest rates. He said that the U.S. would have the lowest rate of interest in the world. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran were having "good discussions"?and there was a possibility of a?deal to'resolve?their conflict. He warned, however, that if negotiations did not produce results then strikes would be resumed. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq reported drone attacks on Sunday, indicating that Tehran was testing the pause. Spivak stated that if the Fed meeting does not produce language which sets the groundwork for a rate increase in September, then gold will likely rally?above $4.200 per ounce. Silver spot fell by 1.6%, to $57.48 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.6%, to $1.611,48, and palladium dropped 1.4%, to $1.274.10. (Reporting and editing by Varun H. K., Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Subhranshu S. in Bengaluru.)
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South Korea's KOSPI reports its biggest drop since early March, as chipmakers slump
South Korean shares fell nearly 11% in their 'worst session for about five months' on Tuesday, as a global chipmaker selloff?hammered SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and CXMT, while CXMT’s stellar debut in the market heightened concerns about Chinese competition. The benchmark KOSPI fell 732.09 or 10.84% to 6,023.66, its largest daily loss since the 4th of March, when the index experienced a record drop following the outbreak of the Iran War. The price fell by as much as 11.3% in one day and triggered a circuit breaker, the 14th time in history. The price also fell below 6,000 for the first time since last April. KOSPI is down 29% this month, surpassing its previous monthly record of?27% from October 1997. The KOSPI is down 34% since the peak in June of 9,114.55, but it's still up 43% for the year. SK Hynix, a memory-chip manufacturer, fell 14.7%. after its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange and have dropped below their.original U.S. Offering Price. Samsung Electronics fell 14.4%, its largest daily loss since Oct. 2008. These two chipmakers are responsible for more than 50% of the KOSPI weighting. This amplifies the impact of a sector-wide decline on the market. SK Hynix, Samsung and other companies are expected to release their earnings for the second quarter later this week. The market sentiment was further dampened due to developments in China. This included the blockbuster debut of ChangXin Memory Technologies, (CXMT), and reports that a Chinese firm backed by the state has started producing immersion DUV equipment. The market is more concerned about CXMT's potential to expand its?capacity and develop technology in the future than its current earnings, said Kim Seok Hwan, a Seoul-based analyst at Mirae Asset Securities. South Korea's top regulator of financial services said that if necessary, authorities would consider a limit on leveraged ETF investments for retail investors, since these have increased market volatility ever since they were introduced in May. Retail investors purchased 4 trillion won, while foreigners sold 5 trillion won. Only 36 of the 917 issues traded advanced while 878 declined. On the onshore settlement platform for settling trades, the won was quoted 0.2% higher than before at 1,462.5 dollars. This erased early losses of up to 0.5%. Traders attributed SK Hynix's dollar sales in relation to the sale of its U.S. shares to the gains. (1 dollar = 1,462.2000 won). (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Kim and Jihoon Lee; Subhranshu Sahu and Sherry Phillips)
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France prepares for fourth major heatwave, as crews battle Bordeaux fire
The?southwest of France is bracing for its fourth major heatwave this year, with temperatures soaring and conditions tinder dry. This puts pressure on the crews fighting a massive 'wildfire' in the Bordeaux region. According to Climate Monitor, temperatures in Bordeaux will reach 33 degrees Celsius during the day. This is around 7 degrees higher than the average between 1961 and 1990. "The situation that we are facing today is the worst we've ever seen, the most difficult since the Second -World War," said President Emmanuel Macron on Monday night, after flying to the region. Nathalie Deattre, Senator of Gironde, which includes the city of Bordeaux, stated that fire crews had contained the blaze over night, but it was still a difficult situation. She told BFM TV that Tuesday, "Everything depends on the performance of the firefighters on the ground." France is experiencing a wildfire season unlike any other. The fire area has already exceeded the previous record of 2022. The Landes region, southwest of Bordeaux is covered with pine forests that are highly flammable if they become dry. The fire has destroyed 42,000 hectares. About 220,000 people have been evacuated, including tourists and local residents. The situation in Biscarrosse has improved. About 15,000 people who were evacuated from the town and nearby campsite last week are gradually being allowed to return home. "However, the (positive) development does NOT mean that the risk has been eradicated. There is still a possibility of flare-ups, especially due to weather conditions (winds, droughts, etc.). "It said. Meteo France, the weather agency in France, said that temperatures would increase in the area from Wednesday afternoon to a maximum of 37 degrees Celsius. Reporting by Yves Herman and Manuel Ausloos; editing by Andrew Heavens
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Kumba Iron Ore's first-half profits drop 41%; company targets more sales outside of China
Kumba Iron Ore, South Africa, said on Tuesday that its half-year profits fell by 41%. This was mainly because of a'strong rand and lower prices for the steelmaking ingredient. Anglo American's headline earnings were 13.24 rand ($0.79) per share in the six-month period ended June 30 compared to 22.26 rand during the same time last year. The top African iron ore miner reported a 11% drop in revenue to 30,88 billion rands after the Rand strengthened by 11% against the U.S. Dollar. Kumba reported a marginal 1%?decrease of the average realized price as well as lower sales volumes. Iron ore sales fell 1% to 18.6 million tons in the first half of this year, while cash costs rose a whopping 18%, due primarily to higher costs for fuel, shipping, and raw materials, as a result of the Middle East conflict. Kumba's sales to China - the world's largest buyer of iron ore - fell to 53% in the first half of 2026 from 58% before, as part of the company's diversification strategy. Kumba reported that China's crude steel production dropped?3,1% on an annual basis in the first six months of this year. Kumba's sales of iron ore to?Japan and South Korea, as well as other Asian countries, rose from 21% in the past, while Europe remained at 21%. Kumba declared an interim dividend per share of?7.90 Rand, compared with a payout per share of 16.60 Rand last year.
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Asia markets sell off in a broad scale due to AI fears
The chip stocks in Asia fell on Tuesday due to fears about the AI boom and Chinese competition. Oil prices also dropped, but this did not calm nerves over possible rate hikes by the U.S. as early as this week. South Korea's KOSPI plunged almost 10% to a three-month-low, triggering circuit breakers on its way down. It is now heading for its biggest monthly drop since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. The index has lost more than a quarter of its value in the past year. Shares of SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and other companies that are facing extra pressure on a market that is being transformed by leverage have suffered losses exceeding 12%. Their stratospheric rise has come to an abrupt end. Nikkei, the Japanese stock index, fell by 4% on Tuesday, reaching a new two-year low. This selloff followed a 2.2% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on Monday. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said that the market was not being moved by a single red flag, but rather, the combination of nervousness about AI funding, and China's rising as a rival all along the supply-chain. The Information reported that China had begun producing?domestically-developed immersion deep ultraviolet machines, a tool for chipmaking long dominated exclusively by Dutch supplier ASML. ASML's shares fell 8.5% on Monday. CXMT Corp., China's largest memory manufacturer, raised $8.6 Billion on Monday. It ended its first session as China’s most valuable company. Kim Seok Hwan, a Seoul based analyst at Mirae Asset Securities said that the market was more concerned about CXMT's potential?for accelerated expansion to Korean rival companies"?. Nvidia's shares fell 5% overnight, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company was in discussions to provide approximately $250 billion in financing guarantee for OpenAI in connection with a massive data center project. CXMT shares fell about 3% in Shanghai's bumpy trading, while Kioxia and Tokyo Electron were the biggest losers in Tokyo. OIL SLIDES; US RATE HIT EYED Brent crude's futures continued their nearly 9% drop on Monday, dropping more than 1%, to $87.19 per barrel. This was due to a lull between?hostilities' between the U.S. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States and Iran were having "good discussions" and that there was a possibility of a deal. The break in fighting has pushed the benchmark 10-year 'U.S. The yields on Treasury bonds fell by 4 basis points on Monday to 4.64%, but the shorter-term rates barely moved. Traders in Asia were also not keen on lowering yields on Tuesday. The markets have estimated that there is a 38% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday. The U.S.-Iran conflict, which is driving up the price of crude, is the biggest factor determining the future direction of the global economy. "We anticipate that (the Fed) will adopt a tightening stance this week." The dollar was supported by the expectation of a hike sooner or later. It held the euro at $1.1362 and the Australian dollar below 70 cents. The yen traded at 163.78 per dollar, barely above the four-decade low.?Markets are on edge over Japan's intervention in the currency pair, especially if the Bank of Japan keeps rates on hold and triggers another yen decline. Wizman said that if BOJ communication was not hawkish, and USD/JPY continues to rise, traders can expect an official response. This could include verbal interventions, rate checks or direct FX market interventions, possibly on Friday. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Saad Sayeed and Tom Westbrook)
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Wall Street Journal, July 28,
These are the top stories from?the Wall Street Journal. These stories have not been?verified and we cannot vouch for their accuracy. Johnson & Johnson, a manufacturer of babycare products, has agreed to pay $5.5 Billion to settle outstanding lawsuits alleging that the company's Talc products cause ovarian cancer. The agreement is conditional on 95% participation by the remaining claimants. Iran and Oman have worked to achieve an agreement for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz amid a lull between fighting between the U.S. -Kuwait Petroleum signed a $16billion pipeline lease agreement with Kuwait Oil, involving the entire country's export and domestic pipelines. The investors were led by Blackstone, Brookfield, and KKR. Cracker Barrel's CEO Julie Masino has resigned from her position. She will be replaced by David Deno, former Bloomin' Brands' CEO on August 10. Ford has been awarded a Defense Department contract for the development of three truck prototypes that are based on its F-Series pickups. The Pentagon is pushing automakers to help modernize and replenish military equipment depleted from wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere. Sazerac, the?cocktail manufacturer of BuzzBallz?, sent a letter to Brown-Forman's shareholders asking them to reconsider their previously rejected $15 billion purchase?offer. Gas cylinder manufacturer Luxfer has agreed to be acquired by Wynnchurch Capital. The company plans to continue as a privately-owned company following the acquisition. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Gold falls as dollar strength weighs on gold; attention turns to Fed meeting
The gold?prices dropped on Tuesday due to a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, the markets were looking forward to the Federal Reserve’s next policy announcement for clues about the interest rate outlook. Gold spot fell by 0.7% at $4,045.89 an ounce as of 0448 GMT. It had risen as high as 1% Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.8% to $4 046.20. Dollars held near a month-high, making bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders other currencies. Ilya Spivak is the head of global macro for finance content network Tastylive. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to conclude its two-day meeting of policy makers on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at 62%. According to CME FedWatch, 38% of participants in the market expect a rate increase at least 25 basis points. The markets are pricing in a 81% chance of a hike during the September meeting of the central bank. On Monday, President Donald Trump called on the Fed?to lower interest rates. He said the U.S. would have the lowest rate of interest in the world. Trump said that on Monday, the United States was in "good talks" and that there was a possibility of a deal to end their conflict. However, he warned that if the negotiations did not succeed then strikes would be resumed. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq reported drone attacks on Sunday, indicating that Tehran was quickly testing the pause of the U.S. campaign. Spivak said that gold will likely rise above $4,200 an ounce if the Fed meeting does not produce language that is "setting the foundation for a rate hike in September". Silver fell by 2% per ounce to $57.23, platinum dropped 0.9% to 1,605.93, and palladium was down 1.6% at $1,270.97. (Reporting and editing by Varun H. K. and Ronojoya Mazumdar in Bengaluru)
China's uncommon copper export boom signifies more than weak need: Andy Home
An uncommon burst of Chinese exports has actually deflated bull spirits in the copper market, with funds discarding long positions and costs down by 16% from the record highs seen in May.
The world's largest buyer of copper shipped an extraordinary 158,000 metric lots of refined metal in June. First-half exports of 302,000 tons were currently higher than any full calendar year since 2019.
This break of typical trade patterns has pierced a bull narrative of constrained supply and cyclical need healing.
Weak Chinese purchasing supervisors indices show that activity in the nation's production sector sank to a five-month low in July, strengthening Medical professional Copper's dismal message.
Yet demand weakness is just part of the story.
Fast-rising domestic production and a flood of African imports have saturated the regional market. And after that a relentless squeeze on the CME agreement in May opened an equally uncommon export arbitrage window for that excess to flow out.
TOO MUCH COPPER
China produced 5.9 million tons of refined copper in the initially half of the year, according to local data service provider Shanghai Metal Market. That represented year-on-year development of 6.5%, comparable to an extra 359,100 loads.
The robust growth rate runs counter to expectations that domestic production would fall after the nation's smelters committed in March to curtail output due to tight raw materials supply.
It's true that numerous smelters have actually taken upkeep downtime in recent months, however the cumulative impact has actually just been a. moderation of the supercharged rate of expansion.
Rising smelter output has accompanied a period of high. improved copper imports.
Although the export burst has actually significantly lowered China's. net contact the worldwide market, the country's imports have. stayed strong. Volume rose by 16% year-on-year to 1.9 million. lots in the first 6 months of 2024.
China also imported significantly more scrap copper, volume. increasing by 18% year-on-year to 1.2 million tons in. January-June.
Chinese need would have had to be super-strong to take in. the simultaneous combination of more domestic and more import. supply. Clearly, it wasn't strong enough.
THE RISE OF THE CONGO
The core motorist of China's greater metal imports has been the. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The country last year. surpassed Peru as the world's second-largest copper manufacturer and. shipped more metal to China than top manufacturer Chile.
Trade flows in between the 2 countries continue to. speed up, with China's imports jumping by 91% year-on-year to. 698,000 tons in January-June. The June tally of 150,000 loads was. a brand-new month-to-month record.
Offered China's dominant role in DRC's copper-cobalt mining. sector, trade flows between the 2 countries are unsurprising.
Nevertheless, it's likewise the case that there is no other. equivalent market for Congolese copper, consisting of the world's. huge three exchanges.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) presently has just one. Congolese brand name on its good shipment list - SCM, produced by. La Sino-Congolaise Des Mines with yearly capability of 82,400. loads.
DRC copper is not deliverable against either the CME or. Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) agreements.
With Chinese demand insufficiently strong to take in surging. imports, Congolese metal has actually cleaned around the domestic market,. dragging down both premiums and rates to the hinderance of local. smelters.
( NOT) EXCELLENT SHIPMENT
CME's limited good-delivery list of copper brand names is one. factor the U.S. contract got squeezed so severely in the 2nd. quarter.
Stocks was up to simply 8,117 tons at the start of July, as. shorts discovered their capability for physical shipment mostly. restricted to U.S., Canadian or Latin American brands.
Inventory has given that rebuilt to 23,620 heaps, however it has been. a painfully sluggish process.
When the squeeze was at its most intense in May, CME copper. was trading at a premium of $1,100 per ton over LME copper. Both. were priced much greater than the well-supplied Shanghai market.
The net outcome was an unusual export window for Chinese. producers to ship surplus metal.
China shipped 16,000 tons of refined copper to the United. States in June, which is an extremely uncommon phenomenon. But. the metal can't be delivered against CME shorts because the. exchange has no Chinese brand names on its great delivery list.
Nevertheless, Chinese metal can be delivered to the LME, which. presently accepts 22 Chinese brand names of copper.
Most of what China has actually exported has headed to South Korea. and Taiwan, both LME good-delivery locations.
LME stocks consisted of just 400 tons of Chinese copper in. February. That mushroomed to 121,700 tons at the end of June,. with Chinese metal accounting for practically 54% of overall signed up. inventory.
Existed seamless physical arbitrage in between the CME, LME. and ShFE, China might have delivered directly to the CME, or. diverted excess Congolese copper to the United States.
The truth has actually been a tortuous reconciliation of regional. imbalances. Chinese surplus is transferring to the West however mainly. by means of LME warehouses in Asia.
The LME a minimum of is emerging as a potential market of last. resort for Congolese copper. It received its first 500 tons of. SCM brand metal in June. Other Congolese manufacturers, including. China's CMOC, are seeking to note their brand names.
The CME good-delivery list, by contrast, accounts for a. shrinking share of worldwide production.
Experts at BNP Paribas compute the volume of deliverable. copper has actually avoided seven million loads in 2010 to around four. million.
The CME has the drawback of running just domestic. good-delivery points, leaving it exposed to wider U.S. trade. policy versus China, Russia and other nations considered. problematic.
But while physical delivery alternatives remain constricted, a. repeat of the May capture is not impossible.
OPTICAL ILLUSION
Reading Chinese copper exports as an easy signal of weak. need misses out on the effect of the extraordinary capture on the CME. and the divergence in good-delivery choices on the three. exchanges.
Chinese copper need might be slower than anticipated however it. hasn't fallen off a cliff. State research study home Antaike is. forecasting 2.5% development in use this year.
China's export burst, meanwhile, appears to be unwinding,. with outbound shipments being up to 70,000 heaps in July.
ShFE stocks have been moving considering that the start of July, and. at 262,206 loads are now 75,000 tons below the June peak.
The Yangshan import premium << SMM-CUYP-CN >, which fell under. negative area in May, has actually increased to $53 per lot.
It may not be too long before some of what China has. exported reverse and heads home.
The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .
(source: Reuters)