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US retail sales exceeded expectations in June
Retail sales in the United States increased more than anticipated in June. However, some of this increase was likely due to higher prices on some goods that were subjected to tariffs. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Thursday that retail sales rose 0.6% in June after a 0.9% decline unrevised in May. Retail sales, which are mainly goods and not adjusted for inflation but are a major part of retail sales, were expected to increase by 0.1%, according to economists polled. The rise in retail sales could have been due to price increases driven by tariffs rather than volume. Inflation data released this week shows that the prices of goods affected by tariffs, such as household goods, appliances, sporting equipment, and toys, rose significantly in June. Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, building supplies, food services, and building materials, increased by 0.5% in June after a downwardly-revised 0.2% increase in May. The core retail sales component, which is closest to the consumer spending component in the gross domestic product, was previously reported as having increased by 0.4%. Sam Bullard is a senior economist with Wells Fargo. He said: "The household sector appears to still be holding up but there appears to have been a moderated in consumer spending." (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Lucia Mutikani)
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Russell: China's mixed commodities data shows soft steel and strong iron ore
China's June industrial output data and commodity imports have produced contrasting figures that make it difficult to get an accurate read on the second largest economy in the world. Iron ore imports and steel production appear to be telling contrasting stories. While imports of this key raw material surged to their highest level in the year, the decline in steel production was evident. The first six months of this year saw a 5% increase in coal production compared to 2024. However, thermal power generation - which is mostly coal-fired – dropped by 2.4%. The output of aluminium rose by 3.4% from the previous year and by 3.3% for the first six months, while construction materials like cement and glass fell by 5%. Decoding the mixed signals in the data requires determining whether they are a part of long-term trends or are driven by short-term influences. China's crude output of steel fell by 3.9% from May to June and by 9.2% compared to the same month 2024. This was the biggest drop year-on-year since August. Last month, the world's biggest steel producer produced 83.18 millions metric tons crude steel, which brought first-half output to 514.83 tons, a decrease of 3% compared with last year. The story of the still-struggling residential construction sector is suited to a softening steel production, but this does not explain why imports of iron ore have been so robust. China, which imports 75% of the global seaborne ore, saw its arrivals increase by 8% from May to June, with 105.95 millions tons of iron ore. This is the highest month of 2025. Iron ore imports, however, are down 3% to 592.21 millions tons in the first half 2025. The recent rise in iron ore prices can be explained by the Singapore Exchange contracts, which have shown a downward trend after reaching their highest level in 2025 at $107.81 per ton on 12th February. Steel prices dropped to as low as $97.95 in July, but recovered since then. They ended the day at $97.95 Wednesday amid hopes that Beijing's stimulus plans will boost demand for steel in the second half. If the annual output of steel is to stay around the informal cap of 1 billion tons, then the second half production will be lower than the first-half's 514.83 millions tons. SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stocks to ensure that iron ore inventory levels are still high. The weekly total of 131.9 millions tons, down from 150.02 in the same period last year, is a drop. COAL MINING The coal production grew 5% to 2.4 billion tonnes in the first half of 2025, a seemingly contradictory increase. Thermal power, which is predominantly coal-fired and uses only a little natural gas, has dropped by 2.4%. The total power generated in the first half of the year increased by 0.8%, while hydropower dropped by 2.9%. It is clear that renewables like wind and solar have gained more share. Why would China produce record coal volumes at a moment when the consumption is declining? Two main reasons are at play. The first is that the domestic coal price remains relatively low. This keeps the downward pressure on the electricity cost, especially when the major users of power, such as the manufacturers, are experiencing uncertainty due to the US trade war. Thermal coal prices in Qinhuangdao In June, the yuan fell to a low of 610 ($84.96). Although it has recovered to 625 on Wednesday, this is still almost 20% below its January 2025 peak of 775 yuan. Second, the increased domestic coal production will reduce the need for imports from abroad. China is the largest importer of coal in the world. This has put pressure on seaborne prices. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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Golf-Denmark Olesen, the world's number 354, leads at Portrush
Jacob Skov Olesen, the world number 354 from Denmark, shot a four-under-par score of 67 in difficult conditions to win the British Open's first round at Royal Portrush. The 26-year old left-hander birdied four holes and eagled 12th before making a bogey on the last hole. He is now tied for the lead with England's Lee Westwood. Li Haotong of China is one shot behind. Nicolai Hjgaard of Denmark, who played in the first group, shot a solid 69 and finished at two under. He said, "I really had to work hard today to get a good score." "I felt that I got the most out it and sometimes these days are nice to have." The 2013 Open champion, American veteran Phil Mickelson carded 70. He also made a par-save from a bunker on the greenside. Scottie Scheffler, the world number one, was on par after five holes. He was level with Shane Lowry from Ireland who won the Open in Royal Portrush 2019. Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland is one of the last starters in his bid for a Claret Jug, alongside England's Tommy Fleetwood as well as American Justin Thomas. Padraig harrington, the two-time Open champion from Ireland, hit the first tee of the tournament under cloudy skies, with thunderstorms expected to strike the course later in the day. Reporting by Ed Osmond, Editing by Peter Rutherford & Toby Davis
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Two people die in a church after Israeli strikes in Gaza
Israeli forces killed 22 people on Thursday in Gaza Strip attacks, including two who were killed in an attack on a church where the late Pope Francis spoke regularly. Airstrikes carried out in Doha while mediators were continuing ceasefire talks resulted in the deaths of eight men who were tasked with guarding aid trucks. Two Hamas officials told the Israeli military that there was no progress in Gaza as Israeli forces continued to bombard the area. The Latin Patriarchate said that a man and woman were killed and several others injured in an "apparent strike" by Israel on the Holy Family Church in Gaza, according to a press release. "We pray for their souls to rest in peace and that this barbaric conflict will end." "Nothing can justify the targeting innocent civilians," stated the Patriarchate which oversees church. The church released photos showing that the roof of the church had been damaged, with the stone façade scorched, and the windows broken. Father Gabriele Romanelli was injured lightly in the attack. He is an Argentine priest who regularly updated the late Pope Francis on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. A TV clip showed him receiving treatment at Al-Ahly Hospital, Gaza. His lower right leg was bandaged. "Israel's attacks on civilians, which have been ongoing for several months, are inacceptable." "No military action can justify this attitude," Italian Prime Minster Giorgia meloni said. Vatican officials said Pope Leo expressed "deep sadness" at the death and reiterated his call for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Israel Defense Forces said they were aware of reports about casualties, and are reviewing the incident. The IDF said that it made every effort to minimize harm to civilians, civilian structures and religious sites. It regretted any damage done to them. Israel is trying to eliminate Hamas from Gaza through a military operation that began in response to the deadly attack by the group on Israel in October of 2023. This has led the small enclave into widespread hunger and poverty. Palestinian medics reported that an airstrike in Jabalia, in northern Gaza on Thursday killed a man and his wife, as well as their five children. Another in the north killed eight men, who were responsible for protecting aid truck. Medical personnel reported that three people died in an airstrike on central Gaza and four others in Zeitoun, eastern Gaza. CEASEFIRE TALKS Qatar and Egypt have been hosting more than ten days of talks with the United States on a 60-day truce proposed by the United States. In exchange, Israel would release Palestinians detained in Gaza. Israel would then release Palestinians detained. It is unclear how many Palestinians were released. Hamas sources with knowledge of this matter claim that Israel has presented new maps, promising to move the army back further than previously offered. Source said that this partially met Hamas demands but was not enough. Hamas officials also said that there are still disagreements over the delivery of aid to Gaza and the guarantees that any truce will end the war. Israeli media reported that Israel told mediators it was willing to give up its insistence on maintaining a military presence near the Israeli border along the Morag Corridor, a southern Gaza corridor. It also said it was ready to be flexible regarding the size and location of the security buffer. The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not comment immediately on these reports. Steve Witkoff said on Wednesday that the negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire were progressing well. According to a Palestinian official involved in the talks, such comments are "empty." Gaza's health authorities claim that Israel's Gaza campaign has resulted in the deaths of more than 58,000 Palestinians. According to Israeli statistics, the conflict has resulted in the deaths of 1,650 Israelis, foreigners, and other nationalities, including 1,200 people killed by the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
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The UK Government funds a battery recycling project supported by Jaguar Land Rover
Mint Innovation, a startup based in London, announced on Thursday that the British Government has funded an EV battery recycling program backed by Jaguar Land Rover to recover minerals from end of life batteries. The UK Department for Business and Trade has launched the DRIVE35 programme, a 2.5 billion-pound (3.35 billion-pound) programme to help the transition to electric vehicles. Why it's important Britain will phase out the sale of new petrol or diesel cars by 2035. Globally, however, the demand for EVs is below expectations. Consumers cite high upfront costs as their main obstacle. By the Numbers Mint Innovation announced in a press release that the lithium-ion project would be located in Britain's West Midlands for a period of three years. The project of the cleantech company is supported by Tata Motors, Jaguar Land Rover and Warwick Manufacturing Group at the University of Warwick. The funding totaled 8.1 million pounds, of which 4,05 million came from the Advanced Propulsion Centre UK. The Department for Business and Trade announced on Sunday that Britain's DRIVE35 program will provide 2 billion pounds of funding until 2030 and 500 million pounds for R&D to 2035, to support the creation of jobs and EV innovations. KEY QUOTE Beth Johnston is an Assistant Professor at University of Warwick. She said, "Our advanced process aims to deliver high-quality material... and also reduce our dependence on virgin materials." CONTEXT In April, Britain lowered its demand that automakers switch to EV production in an effort to ease pressure on a sector already under stress from U.S. tariffs on imports. Jaguar Land Rover lowered its fiscal 2026 forecast in June due to a slowdown in global auto demand. This comes months after the company canceled plans to build EVs within a $1 billion Tata plant located in southern India.
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Poor nations barred from summits by tighter borders
Visa denials hinder Global South participation key summits Africans will lose $70 million in 2024 due to rejected European visas Global South is excluded from decisions By Lin Taylor The 24-year-old stayed at home after spending hundreds of dollars, nearly two months, and preparing for a Visa that was denied within 48 hours. Her peers, mainly from the Global North flew to Bonn with no problems. She said, "Knowing that everyone is at Bonn but you aren't there because of your nationality makes you feel bad. It feels like I am less than them," from her home in Middle East. In 2023 she left Sudan when civil war broke out. Researchers say that stricter border and visa regulations are limiting participation by nationals of the Global South at high-level discussions on climate change, global health, economic systems and conflicts, as well as other pressing issues. Roaa, an undergraduate medical student, said, "We're the ones most affected, but we're not there." Most of the conferences take place in Europe and the U.S. "They are speaking on our behalf." Rejections have a cost. According to an analysis by Britain's LAGO Collective, Africans will pay approximately 60 million euros ($70.10 millions) in 2024 for rejected Schengen Visa applications. This is up from almost 54 million euros in the year 2023. The data revealed that despite its smaller volume of visa requests compared to other continents Africa had one of the highest rejection rates from the European Commission which issues Schengen Visas for short trips to the European Union. Recent years have seen the rise of populist and far-right parties in countries like Germany, Sweden, Italy and the U.S. This has fueled anti-immigrant sentiments across Western countries where many global conferences take place. UNDERREPRESENTED According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (UNFCCC), the nations most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as flooding, droughts, and rising sea levels, are usually the poorest and least polluting, and they are underrepresented in global discussions. The UNFCCC hosts the Bonn Summit and the COP30 Climate Conference in November, both of which are held in Brazil. Although it has no influence on the visa process, the UNFCCC said that they have taken steps to increase the quotas for Global South delegates at their events. Kathryn Nwajiaku Dahou, Director of Politics and Governance at the British think-tank ODI Global, said: "The major international conference is where big decisions will be made in respect to global obligations." Nwajiaku Dahou said that if those expected to implement global policy "are not present at the table", this compounds the inequality they are campaigning to reduce. Roaa, despite providing information about her work, university studies, financial statements and letters of support for attending the UNFCCC Summit, was told that she had not provided enough evidence to prove that she would be returning home from Germany. Roaa claims that she was refused a visa despite her appeal. In an emailed comment, the European Commission stated that the cases are evaluated according to "purpose of the stay, the applicant's desire to return home, and whether they have sufficient means to subsist". "NOT FAIR" Joseph Robert Linda, a Ugandan HIV/AIDS Youth Advocate, said he had secured $4,000 in sponsorship to cover his travel, hotel and visa fees for last year's International AIDS Conference held in Munich, Germany. However, his visa was rejected. Linda claimed that he was informed there were "reasonable suspicions" regarding the authenticity of his papers and his intent to leave Germany. This led to his visa being refused. The 28-year old said, "That was unfair to me. They gave me feedback only three or four days before I attended the conference. There is no way that I could appeal." Harvard Medical School researchers reviewed 100 conferences from the past three decades and found that only 4% were held in the poorer countries where 80% of the population lives. The study, published in BMJ Global Health Journal, found that between 1997 and 2019, only 39% of the health conferences analysed included attendees from developing nations. Linda could attend the conference virtually. However, this option would require stable internet that was affordable, which is not something available in many places around the world. He suggested that conference organizers work with the authorities more closely to obtain visa approvals so more people could have their say. The International AIDS Society, a Geneva-based organization that runs the International AIDS Conference (IAC), has announced it will be changing its host city from 2023. This is because many delegates could not attend the previous year's conference in Canada due visa issues. IAS spokesperson stated that large conferences should prioritize finding "safe and welcoming spaces" for the "most marginalised amongst us". Saida, a Sudanese student of medicine who was denied a visa for a medical workshop held in Italy last month, stated that it was up to the citizens of the Global South to continue to demand change. "You must speak up... "This is a pattern we see and it's something that has to be changed," Saida said, asking that her last name not be revealed.
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Stellantis increases production capacity in Morocco
Stellantis, a car manufacturer in Morocco, plans to double its production capacity in the next few months at its Kenitra plant to 535,000 cars annually, said its Chief Operating Officer for the Middle East & Africa on Wednesday. Samir Cherfan, at the opening of the expansion of the plant, said that the plant would increase production of supermini-electric cars, including the Citroen AMI, Opel Rocks e and Fiat Topolino, to 70,000 units from 20,000. Aziz Akhannouch, the Moroccan Prime Minister, said that the 1.2 billion euros ($1.4 billion) of expansion will raise the local sourcing to 75% in 2030. This compares to a current rate of 69%. Stellantis plans to manufacture hybrid engines as well as three-wheeled cars at the facility. Kenitra, which was opened in 2019 and has a capacity to produce 200,000 cars by 2020. The French automaker Renault, as well as parts suppliers, are also located in Morocco. At the inauguration, Ryad Mezour, Morocco's industry minister said that Stellantis will expand to help Morocco reach a production capacity of 1 million cars. Official figures show that the country's auto industry exports will reach a new record of 157 billion dirhams (17 billion dollars) in 2024. In recent years, Chinese battery manufacturers have invested in Morocco's automotive industry to prepare it for the transition to electric mobility.
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Milan Mayor placed under investigation for property planning probe
Three sources confirmed on Thursday that the mayor of Milan was under investigation. The probe is looking into the deals which have fueled the real estate boom seen in Italy's financial center over the past 10 years. Beppe Sala's investigation comes after the prosecution on Wednesday demanded the arrest of four other people, including the director of Coima real estate and the councillor of Milan for urban planning. Three sources familiar with the case claim that Mayor Sala, the leader of a coalition of centre-left in the city is one of dozens of individuals under investigation. He is accused concealing a potential conflict of interest in relation to the appointment of the chairman of a local commission that issues building permits. He was also accused of being among those who put the pressure on the same chairman to allow a city building project to be approved. A request for comment was not responded to by his spokesperson. Three Italian newspapers were the first to report on the investigation into the mayor. Sala, in a Thursday comment by the Corriere della Sera paper, denied any wrongdoing. He said it was "shocking" that the mayor learned of his investigation from a newspaper and not from the prosecutor. It's unacceptable". The scandal could embarrass Milan, as it prepares to host the Winter Olympics in 2026 next February. Sala has been called to resign by the centre-right parties that govern at national levels under Prime Minister Giorgia Melons. Two sources stated that investigations into the position of the mayor are in the early stages, and that they are not nearing a conclusion. They expressed regret that this news was made public. In 2015, the Milan property market started to flourish, as the Expo international exhibition transformed the city, making it a popular destination for developers both from Italy and abroad. It also reshaped its skyline. Local residents' complaints about the rapid increase in multi-storey building construction slowed down construction. Documents filed in court show that investigations into the biggest urban planning projects of Milan "have revealed a system '...whose aim is to facilitate issuance of building permits illegally and to conduct highly speculative transactions". (Elvira Pollina contributed additional reporting, Keith Weir edited by Sharon Singleton and Sharon Singleton.)
Urals diffs consistent as Feb cargoes primarily cleared
Urals unrefined differentials to dated Brent were constant on Monday in the middle of low activity as the majority of February freights cleared, while market sources expected negotiations in Marchloading volumes to emerge late this week or next week.
PLATTS WINDOW
* There were no bids or deals for CPC Blend, Azeri BTC or Urals oil in the Platts window on Monday.
NEWS
* Italy's Moratti family has agreed to sell 35% of oil refiner Saras to international commodity trader Vitol at 1.75 euros per share, valuing the whole group 1.7 billion euros, it said in a. declaration on Sunday.
* Indian oil company ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) is in talks with. the Russian government to pay its contribution to the Sakhalin-1. abandonment fund in roubles, a business official stated on Monday.
* Iraq is committed to OPEC decisions and after its 2nd. voluntary cut announced in December it is also committed to. producing no more than 4 million barrels daily
(source: Reuters)