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UAE announces it will discuss currency swap lines with US
On 'Monday, the United Arab Emirates announced that it is in talks with the United States about a currency exchange line. "We are having this discussion and conversation with many.?It's a part of an elite group with whom the U.S. has this swap policy. "They only have it with five countries," Thani al Zeyoudi told a conference in Abu Dhabi. "To be part of this group means that the transactions...?trade, investment between both nations reach an level where that exchange is highly necessary...?so (it) is an elite issue, it's not about bailing-out," he said at the "Make It In The Emirates" conference. Currency swap lines allow central banks to exchange currencies without having to use foreign exchange markets. This reduces transaction costs and exchange rate risk for international trade. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains permanent central bank currency exchange lines with five major central banks: the Bank of Canada (Bank of Japan), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott?Bessent stated last month that allies from the Gulf region, Asia and Europe had requested currency exchange?lines to deal with the?impact of the Middle East conflict. The conflict, which began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran?on February 28th, has shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial chokepoint where about 20% of oil and LNG shipments travel, and this has pushed up oil prices. Al Zeyoudi?did not provide any further details about?the discussion, the size or the timeline for an agreement regarding the currency swap line? with the United States. Reporting by Federico Maccioni, Writing by Eman Aboushassira, Editing by Andrew Cawthorne & Alexander Smith
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Gold drops as the dollar rises, and Middle East unrest fuels inflation fears
The gold price fell in a thinly traded session on Monday due to the rising tensions with?the United States. The tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased inflation fears and reduced expectations for interest rate reductions. As of 1020 GMT, spot gold was down 1.6% to $4,538.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 2.1% to $4,48.30. The volume was low due to the fact that markets in China and Japan were closed for holidays. After Fars reported that an?U.S. After ignoring Iran’s warnings, a warship that was going to cross the Strait of Hormuz had its plans redirected. The price of gold is likely to be affected by a slightly stronger dollar and modestly increased interest rates, which are likely influenced by the rise in oil prices. This was the opinion of UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Dollar-priced gold is now more expensive to other currency holders. OIL PRICES HAS ALMOST DOUBLED Brent has almost doubled its price at the beginning of the year. As manufacturers pass costs on to consumers, rising fuel prices can lead to inflation. Central banks are often forced to raise interest rates to combat higher costs. Bullion, unlike Treasury yields does not bear interest. Gold has fallen by over 13% in value since the beginning of the 'war, because of the high cost of holding gold at a time of elevated interest rates. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, said that spot?gold will likely oscillate in the $4k range, and its upside is limited as long as inflation worries continue to weigh on the collective mind of the?market. Last Wednesday, the Fed held interest rates at their current level. The policy statement was criticized by several officials. They said that the oil price shock made it clear the U.S. Fed could no longer be leaning towards interest rate cuts, and that an increase in borrowing costs in the future is possible. Silver spot fell by 3.5%, to $72.74 an ounce. Platinum lost 2.9%, to $1,931.92, while palladium dropped 4.1%, to $1,462.00. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
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Ambuja Cements' profit nearly triples on record tax gains and volume
Ambuja Cements, a cement manufacturer in India, reported on Monday a?threefold increase?in the fourth quarter profit. This was aided by?tax benefits and record sales of cement. Adani Group's cement maker reported a profit after tax of 16,44 billion rupees (173,06 million dollars) for the three months ended March 31. This is up from 5,55 billion rupees one year ago. The company recorded its highest quarterly volume ever, with a 10% increase in sales year-on-year, driven by demand for infrastructure. The company recorded a tax credit of approximately 14.6 billion rupees during the quarter ending March, which boosted its bottom line. Ambuja refunded excess tax provisions for earlier years after favorable court rulings and a reassessment. Analysts at HDFC Securities said that India's cement consumption grew 6% to 7% in the first quarter of the year, largely due to infrastructure spending. However, the demand began to moderate towards the end of the quarter. Ambuja reported that higher fuel, packaging, and diesel costs related to the conflict and weakness in currencies in West Asia weighed on the costs during the third quarter. These costs are expected to continue to increase in the first six months of the fiscal year. The company said that India's infrastructure growth story is fundamentally sound, but that the outlook for fiscal growth in 2027 is a bit softer due to geopolitical issues and an early forecast of below-normal rains. In a press release, CEO?Vinod Bhatty stated that he expected industry demand to be 5% for FY27. Elara Capital analysts see a slowdown in demand following the peak season. Seasonal?weaknesses in the June quarter may also impact profitability in the upcoming months. Revenue from operations increased 5.5% in the quarter reported, to 69.72 bn rupees. This was due to higher volumes and better pricing. UltraTech Cement, a larger?rival, posted a 'quarterly profit estimate that was exceeded last week. This was due to improved weather conditions and increased demand.
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Rhine River shipping is hampered by low water levels
Commodity traders reported on Monday that low water levels following a period of dry weather have prevented cargo vessels from sailing on the Rhine River in Germany with their full load. They will be charged a surcharge on top of the normal freight rate. The traders claim that low water levels are affecting shipping along the entire river south of Duisburg and Cologne. This includes the chokepoint at Kaub. At Kaub, the cargo vessels are only able to sail at a maximum of?50% capacity, while in the northern regions, they can travel up to?70% capacity depending on the vessel type. The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities like?grains and minerals, coal, ores, oil products including heating oil. In shallow water, vessel operators will increase freight rates in order to compensate for the fact that vessels are not fully loaded. This increases costs for cargo owners. This also means that loads are spread across a number of vessels, which may be sailing partially loaded. The traders said that the rain forecast for 'the next week' in river catchment regions could mean some improvement is in sight. German companies will face production and supply problems after the 'drought and heat wave' of 2022, which led to abnormally low Rhine water levels. Michael Hogan, reporting from Hamburg and Kirsten Donovan editing the story)
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Dutch gas prices rise amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty
Dutch natural gas prices climbed a bit on Monday, despite contradictory messages from the United States and Iran about whether ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz where LNG supplies are still trapped. Data from the Intercontinental Exchange showed that the?benchmark Dutch front month contract at the TTF Hub was up 0.39 euros at 46.16 euro per megawatt-hour (MWh) at 0755 GMT, after trading as low at 44.50 euro/MWh earlier. Monday is a holiday in Britain. Iran has warned U.S. military forces against entering the Strait of Hormuz. Karsten Sander-Nielsen, a senior analyst at Mind Energy, said: "The market is sideways today while everyone watches the Middle East and whether the U.S. can force through the reopening of Hormuz." Since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, only one LNG-laden tanker has been able to pass the shipping chokepoint. Analysts at ING Research say that the?market is not convinced by Trump's?Project Freedom plan. Gassco data showed that Norwegian pipeline gas supply remains subdued due to maintenance. Nominations total 282.6 million cubic meters (mcms) per day. Mind Energy's Nielsen said that "apart from the Strait of Hormuz being closed, Europe has to also deal with reduced supplies?from Norway?, fears of an extremely warm and dry summer?, and very low levels of storage." Gas Infrastructure Europe's data shows that EU gas storage facilities were 33.4% full last month, down from 40.3% last year. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up 0.33 euros at 74.27 euro per metric ton. (Reporting and editing by Nora Buli)
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India palm oil imports drop to a one-year low on April weak demand
India's palm oils imports dropped 27% in April to a "one-year low" as refiners slowed purchases due to the sluggishness of demand from institutional buyers, and recent price increases that reduced its discount to competing oils. India's palm oil imports fell 27% to a?one-year low in April, as sluggish demand?from institutional buyers and a recent price rally that eroded?its discount to rival oils prompted refiners to curb purchases, five dealers said. Dealer estimates show that palm oil imports dropped to 505,000 tons in April from 689.462 tons in march. Imports of soyoil rose by 24% in April, compared to March, to 355,000 metric tons. This is the highest level in four months. Sunflower oil shipments increased more than twice to 435,000 metric tons, which is the highest since 22 months. Estimates show that India's total edible oil imports rose 10.4% in March, to 1.3 millions tons in April. This is the highest since January 2026. Dealers said that the figures do not include duty-free shipments from Nepal arriving at land borders. By mid-May, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India will release its April import statistics. Sandeep Bajoria is the chief executive officer of Sunvin Group. The firm specializes in vegetable oil brokerage and consulting. The restaurants offer popular deep-fried dishes like chole bhature and samosas. India, the second largest cooking gas importer in the world, is experiencing its worst 'gas crisis' in decades as the government raises prices for commercial cylinders and cuts supplies to industry. According to Rajesh Patel of edible oil trader GGN in Rajkot, Gujarat, Sunflower oil imports increased by a significant amount during April as the refining margins for sunflower oil were higher than those for rival oils. Indian buyers placed orders before disruptions caused by the Iran War.
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The US dollar rate is expected to rise as the inflation fears and Iran war clouds US rate outlook
Gold prices were pushed lower on Monday in a thinly traded session, as inflation fears clouded U.S. monetary policies outlook. Meanwhile, markets waited for developments in U.S. Iran peace negotiations. As of 0655 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,588.71 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.9% to $4,560.60. The markets in China, Japan, and the UK will be closed on holidays. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, 'ended his eight-year tenure as head of U.S. Central bank on Wednesday. Interest rates were held and inflation concerns increased. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold was still feeling the effects of the Fed's hawkish messaging from last week, particularly the dissenting voices who pushed back against any further easing. Federal Reserve officials who dissented from the policy statement made last week said that the U.S. should not be tempted to cut interest rates due to the shock caused by the 'Iran war. A rise in oil prices may encourage central banks, who will then hold their interest rates at a higher level for longer. This would put pressure on non-yielding investments such as gold. The oil prices have eased, but remain above $100 a barrel. Lack of clarity around a possible U.S. Iran peace deal remains the main focus. Donald Trump announced that the United States will begin helping to free ships stuck in the 'Gulf due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, starting Monday. A tanker had reported being 'hit by unknown.projectiles? in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported Washington's response to Iran’s 14-point offer via Pakistan and that Tehran is now reviewing it. We see gold trading largely in the $4,400 to $5,500 range by the end of this year. Waterer said that the upper half of this range would be dependent on a sustained reduction in Middle East tensions as well as a?decrease in inflation pressures. Meanwhile, persistently high oil prices would push the metal toward the lower end of the range. Spot silver dropped 0.6%, to $74.91 an ounce. Platinum remained at $1.989 and palladium fell 0.4%, at $1.519.78.
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Greens from the UK's left seek to overthrow Labour's London-based strongholds
Nadeshda Jaakody, a human rights lawyer in Hackney, east London, is one of the many urban progressives who are switching to the Green Party. This trend could cost British PM Keir starmer dearly in London. Starmer's Labour Party, in response to Nigel Farage and Reform UK's rise, is adopting a 'tougher' stance on immigration issues. This could cost the party voters such as Nadeshda Jayakody. Jayakody said, "I think the Greens are more in line with my values." Jayakody voted Labour at the general election of 2024. "Labour panders to the right, toward Reform, instead of trying to lead from either the centre or left." The local council elections that will take place in London on 7 May are part of a wider set of votes throughout Britain, which could threaten Starmer's Premiership. Starmer has seen his popularity plummet since taking office, despite leading the centre-left Labour Party to a massive election victory in 2024. After a series of scandals, and the feeling that Labour has not delivered the improvements in living standards it promised, the party is bracing itself for major losses. GREEN GAIN IN MANCHESTER WATERSHED MOMENT Since Zack Polanski took over as leader of the Greens in September, and moved the party leftwards, they have gained a?momentum. He has pushed for rent control, higher taxes on the wealthy, and legalization of drugs. The party polls between 15% and 20% nationally, sometimes even ahead of Labour. In February, the Greens won an astonishing victory in a Labour-held parliamentary seat in Greater Manchester. This cast doubt on Starmer's claim that Labour is the only progressive party that can defeat Reform. Zoe Garbett is the Green candidate running for Hackney Mayor. She said, "People in Hackney were really following it and could really see that we are a viable alternative." Garbett said that Hackney voters, where Labour has been the largest party in the council since 1970, are dissatisfied for many reasons. These range from local housing problems to their stance regarding the Gaza War. There are close races in several London Boroughs, according to polls. YouGov's model from last month showed the Greens leading in four London Boroughs, including Hackney. A JL Partners model put them just ahead in Camden - Keir Starmer’s own parliamentary constituency. Reform may also do well in the outer boroughs of London. Starmer said that his government was delivering on its priorities in a period of great global challenges, such as stabilising public finances, reducing poverty among children, and reducing hospital waiting lists. Greens were criticized after some of its candidates were accused antisemitism. Polanski is Jewish and has stated that there should only be one case of antisemitism. However, he also said that this issue shouldn't be confused with legitimate criticisms of Israel. Last week, London's chief of police rebuked him for retweeting a tweet criticizing officers who arrested a suspect after two Jewish people in north London were stabbed. VOTERS IN CONFLICT BETWEEN THE LABOUR PARTY AND THE GREENS Some voters, despite the growing support for Greens in Hackney have expressed sympathy for Starmer. This is a district that Labour won in 2024 by almost 40 percentage points. Mel Bagshaw, an 69-year-old photographer, stated that he would vote Labour again because they have always protected the most vulnerable people in society. He added that the Greens are "slightly too radical" for him. Sophie Bullock, a 39-year-old operations manager, who normally votes Labour, said she was torn because she wanted "some stability and consistency" when she backed Starmer and Labour but she was leaning toward the "refreshing energy" of the Greens. Garbett, the Green candidate, said that voters on a national scale felt "really disappointed" by the parties of establishment. She said: "I believe we've witnessed a real shift in politics, and I think that this election will be a major change for London." Reporting by Alistair Smout, Marissa Davison and Toby Chopra
McGeever: Risk of dollar liquidity shock highlighted by Mideast crisis
This week, investors have been dumping dollars amid the turmoil in Middle East. It is a reminder of the potential rocky transition from a dollar-centric world to a multi-polar, fractured one.
Investors seeking relative safety in the world's most liquid asset, the dollar, are boosting its value as the war that has spread across the region since the joint U.S. and Israeli assault on Iran last Saturday.
Equity indices which were the best performers in the first two months of this year have plummeted. South Korea's KOSPI, which rose?50% in February, has fallen nearly 20% in just two days. The dollar has risen by as much as 2 percent in just two days and Treasury yields have also soared.
Matt King, founder at Satori Insights says that this sudden dollar surge has nothing to do with a sudden change in growth or inflation expectations. Money flow is the issue - investors are scrambling for liquidity as they unwind the speculative frenzy that has inflated many markets over recent months.
Investors in a foxhole, despite all their fears of dollar devaluation, still need and want dollars.
Will Dollar Demise remain 'Glastic'?
This brings up the question of what might happen in future crises, if the "long-term erosion" of the dollar's dominance continues.
Since the introduction of the euro currency in 1999 and China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the dollar has steadily declined as the leader of global trade, finance, and foreign exchange reserves.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 57% from 70% at the beginning of the 2000s.
The erosion of dollar liquidity was smooth and gradual. This has allowed the global financial system to build buffers for liquidity crises, after the historical shocks in 2008 and 2020.
The U.S. alliances and rules-based order as well as the forces of globalization, which once ensured dollar liquidity lubricated the wheels of?the world economy and markets are now crumbling. In the last year, major trade, political, and military conflicts erupted, making the investment landscape in the world a very dangerous place.
On March 17, Barry?Eichengreen will publish his latest book, "Money Beyond Borders": Global Currencies From Croesus To Crypto.
Eichengreen examines the 2,500 year history of money and the reasons why certain currencies are important and then disappear. He also assesses the future of the dollar, as well as the role that cryptocurrencies and blockchain will play.
He argues that the dollar is still the dominant currency for FX reserves, international trade, finance, and invoicing. However, he worries that the decline of the dollar on these fronts could accelerate.
Eichengreen: "I am much more concerned than I used to be in the past." There is no obvious alternative to greenbacks, so we must continue to pray that the transition will be gradual and smooth. "But I think we are learning that things don't happen as smoothly anymore."
"A DELICATE POINT in Time"
The last few days were anything but smooth and have shown how desperately the world needs dollars.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, 89% of all foreign exchange transactions are on the U.S. Dollar's side. This is the highest level in 25 years. The euro is the second most traded currency, accounting for 29% of all FX transactions.
Additionally, the dollar is responsible for about half of all international payments. According to a Federal Reserve report, if you include intra-eurozone payments in the calculations, this share increases to about 60%. About 55% of bank claims in foreign currencies and international are denominated as dollars, while 60% of liabilities have the same currency.
According to estimates, up to 20% of crude oil is priced in currencies other the dollar such as the euro and Chinese yuan. That means that around 80% of the world's crude oil trade is still priced in dollars.
Eichengreen has said that he believes a multi-polar financial and monetary system for the global economy would be beneficial to the world. Just as a diverse ecosystem is healthy for the planet.
We're still not at the point where we could rely on other global sources of liquidity to?replace the dollar. We are therefore at a delicate time," says?Eichengreen.
This seems like a bit of an understatement at a time where trade wars, and even real wars, are raging.
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(source: Reuters)