Latest News
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Reliance Industries of India says its battery manufacturing plans are on track
Reliance Industries, an Indian conglomerate, said Monday that it has not changed its plans for battery storage manufacturing. This follows a report by Bloomberg News that the company had "paused" plans to manufacture lithium-ion batteries in India because they were unable to obtain Chinese technology. In an email, a spokesperson for the company stated that "Reliance Industries categorically and strongly affirms that our plans to create a world-leading battery storage manufacturing ecosystem from Cell (cellular energy storage system) to containerised ESS are not changing and they're progressing in line with their target timelines." Bloomberg News reported that the Mukesh Ambani led?conglomerate was in talks with Xiamen Hithium Energy Storage Technology, a Chinese company, to license cell technology. The report cited anonymous sources. Reports said that the talks stalled when Xiamen backed out of the partnership after China imposed a 'curb on technology transfers overseas in key sectors. This prompted Reliance to refocus its efforts on the assembly of battery energy storage systems. Could not immediately verify the report. Beijing announced export controls of lithium battery parts in October last year, forcing exporters to obtain permits. This tightened China's grip over technology crucial for energy storage and electrical vehicles. Reporting by Chandni Monnappa and Chandini Shah in Bengaluru. Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sherry Jacob Phillips.
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Gold surpasses $4,600/oz after Powell-Trump spat fuels safe-haven demand
On Monday, gold broke through $4600/ounce, and silver also reached a record-high, as investors rushed to buy'safe-haven' assets due to increased geopolitical uncertainty and a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. By 0619 GMT, spot gold had risen 1.4% to $4572.36 an ounce. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,600.33 during the day. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery firmed by 1.8% to $4.583.20. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said: "So between the events in Iran and possible U.S. involvement, as well as the Fed chair being the subject of a criminal investigation, U.S. Futures turned lower after the Powell news, which gave gold a boost." A rights group reported that more than 500 Iranians have been killed by unrest, while Tehran warned to "target" U.S. bases if Donald Trump follows through on his threats to strike the country in support of protesters. Iran's unrest is a result of Trump's international flexing of U.S. muscle, after he ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and discussed annexing Greenland either by force or purchase. Powell stated on Sunday that the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal investigation over his testimony to Congress, a move the Fed Chair referred to as a "pretext". This was done in order to pressure the central banks into lowering interest rates. The dollar and U.S. stock futures fell as a result. Goldman Sachs has re-evaluated its Fed rate cut forecasts. It now expects two 25 basis-point cuts in June and September of 2026, instead of the previously anticipated moves in March?and June. In a low interest rate environment, and in times of geopolitical or economical uncertainty, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Soni Kumari, ANZ's commodity strategist said: "If the current situation continues to be as it is, I believe (silver prices) will soon push towards $90/oz. There is a lot of policy uncertainty at this time and there are now some restrictions coming from China whose impact we have not yet seen." Silver spot rose 5.4%, to $83.26 an ounce. It had earlier reached a record high of $84.58. After reaching a record-high of $2,478.50 per ounce on December 29, spot platinum rose 3.5% to $2351.25 an ounce. Palladium rose 2.8%, to $1865.50 an ounce. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu)
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As Trump-Fed dispute deepens, stocks wobble and the dollar drops
Dollar fell and U.S. Equity Futures?eased after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell claimed that the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal?indictment. This stoked concerns about the independence of the central bank. S&P futures fell 0.5%, and gold reached a?another?record?high as a reaction to the intensification of the dispute between U.S. president Donald Trump and Fed. The Swiss Franc gained 0.4%, to 0.7979 dollars. The euro rose 0.17% at $1.1656. The news is unsettling for traders, but the immediate impact on interest rates is not clear. Fed funds futures has added about three basis point more in cuts in this year. This is small, but it points to the possibility that the Fed will be pushed to become more aggressive. Gold prices rose to a record $4,600 per ounce due in part to geopolitical tensions. Unrest in Iran also boosted precious metals and supported oil. European stock futures dipped, but Asian stocks rose Monday, led by the tech sector. Data on Friday revealed that the U.S. labour market was not rapidly deteriorating despite a slowdown in employment growth. The Japanese markets were closed on a public holiday. TRUMP VS POWELL Powell claimed that the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal prosecution and served grand jury subpoenas for Congressional testimony he provided last summer about a Fed building project. He called this action a "pretext", a way to pressure the central bank into lowering interest rates. These developments represent a dramatic intensification of the conflict between Powell and Trump that dates back to Powell's first year as chairman in 2018. Andrew Lilley is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, a Sydney-based investment bank. "He's only doing this because he knows he won't be able to control the Fed. He wants to exert all of the pressure he can." Investors won't like it, but this shows that Trump doesn't have any other levers. The majority of FOMC members want the cash rate to remain at that level. DOLLAR IN SCRATCHHAIRS Even against currencies that are typically considered risky, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar, the dollar's reaction was the most pronounced. The dollar index fell 0.3% and is on course for its biggest?one day decline since mid-December. The dollar's 2025 was a disaster. It dropped more than 9% compared to major peers as interest rates differentials shrank as the Fed cut its rates and concerns about?U.S. Fiscal deficits and political unrest were a major concern. Ray Attrill, head of currency strategies at National Australia Bank, said: "This open war between the Fed and U.S. Administration... is clearly not good for the U.S. Dollar." Trump's threats of intervening in Iran where protests are escalating against the clerical regime have helped oil prices to hold their recent gains. They also highlighted the geopolitical risks that will be looming for the coming year. Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices, were down 40 cents at $62.90 per barrel after recent sharp gains. In the second week of 2019, we will see U.S. inflation figures, Chinese trade figures and an array of U.S. earnings starting with JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and BNY. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Jamie Freed and Ankur Banerjee)
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Morning Bid Europe-Powell’s punch back shocks markets
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Investors still can't wrap their minds around the latest escalation of the fight between U.S. president Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell is fighting back against the "effort" to control interest rates and the Fed. The growing unrest in Iran where, according to an international rights group, more than 500 people were killed, underscored also the geopolitical issues that markets will be navigating by the beginning of 2026. This is why safe-haven assets are well supported. The markets opened trading on Monday after the Trump administration announced that it had threatened to prosecute?Powell for Congressional testimony he made last summer regarding a Fed building remodeling project. Powell claims it's "a pretext" for him to gain influence over the central banks and monetary policies. Powell stated that the question is whether or not the Fed can continue to set rates of interest based on economic and evidence-based criteria, or if instead "monetary policy" will be dictated by political pressures or intimidation. Although the immediate market reaction was to sell dollars and lower stock futures, what this means for interest rates wasn't clear. Investors sought safety as gold prices broke $4,600 an ounce for first time. The news was disturbing, but the market's reaction was measured. Investors waited for clarity about the Fed's autonomy, and the direction of rates in the short term. Markets may now expect that the Fed will kowtow and freely cut rates once the new Fed head settles in after May, when Powell's tenure ends. Futures pricing shows two rate cuts for the year. As the Japanese markets were closed on Monday, no cash trading was conducted in Treasuries during Asian hours. Once London opens, the focus will shift to the Treasury market. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Economic event - Germany balance account for November and euro zone sentix for January
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Gold edges past $4,600/oz as Powell-Trump rift stokes safe-haven demand
On 'Monday', gold broke through $4600/ounce, and silver hit a new record. Investors rushed to safe havens in response to increased geopolitical uncertainty, as well as a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. By 0410 GMT, spot gold had risen 1.3% to $4,668.80 an ounce. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,600.33 during the day. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery firmed by 1.8% to $4.579.10. "So, between events in Iran and possible U.S. participation, as well as the (Fed's) chair being at the center of a criminal investigation... U.S. Futures turned lower on Powell news which was a greenlight for?gold? to take a rise," said Tim Waterer. A rights group reported that more than 500 people have been killed in unrest in Iran. Tehran also threatened to 'target U.S. bases' if Donald Trump follows through on his threats to attack the country as a result of the protests. Iran's unrest is a result of Trump's international flexing of U.S. muscle, after he ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and discussed acquiring Greenland via purchase or force. Powell claimed on Sunday that the Trump administration threatened to indict him for his testimony before Congress. Powell called this action a "pretext", a way of increasing pressure on the central banks to lower interest rates. The dollar and U.S. stock futures fell as a result. Investors expect two Fed rate cuts this year. In a low interest rate environment, and in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Waterer stated that he expects the appetite of central banks for gold and other precious metals to continue to grow this year. These metals are perceived as a safer alternative to dollars. Spot'silver' was up 4.1% to $83.20 an ounce after reaching a high of $83.96 the previous day. After reaching a record-high of $2,478.50 per ounce on December 29, spot platinum rose 3.4% to $2349.59 an ounce. Palladium rose 3.4%, to $1877.96 an ounce. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Investors look past Italy's Real Estate Scandal
Italy's real estate market may outpace the rest of Europe in 2026, as political stability as well as a clean-up of regulatory issues following a scandal involving building permits in Milan boost investor confidence. The property research group Scenari Immobiliari predicts that transactions on the Italian real estate market this year will rise by 8.4% to 175,8 billion euros ($205.9 billion), with residential properties accounting for over 80%. According to Scenari Immobiliari, this would be "faster" than 7% growth on the Spanish property market. In comparison, UK's housing market grew by 6.6%, Germany 4.1%, and France 3.2%. The Milan building scam, which was made public in 2024, and centered on the fast-tracking permits for high-rise development, fueled industry fears of a mass exodus of investors. After the court process, more than 100 construction projects in Rome, Italy's largest real estate market were halted. Scenari Immobiliari warned Milan a year earlier that gridlock could cost the city up to 38 billion euro in lost investment potential over a 10-year period, either in real estate directly or indirectly through effects on the local economy. A?rare period in Italy of political stability under Prime Minister Giorgia Melons, who has been in power for three years now, helps attract investors. According to Scenari Immobiliari, the number of transactions in Italy's property market will increase by almost 7% between 2025 and 2026, making it Europe's second-hottest market after Spain. Davide Dalmiglio is the managing director and chief executive officer of the Italian division of British real estate company Savills. He says that the capital flight fears have not come to pass. He said that the investigations had "put investors on alert" and prompted a level pre-acquisition scrutiny, "never seen for 25 years", with much more thorough due diligence. Manfredi Catella is the chief executive officer of the property developer Coima. He argues that the judges, by setting stricter rules (although more expensive), have eliminated uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the building regulations, which he said was "the market's primary concern". Documents seen by revealed that Catella was investigated in a second round of investigations into the industry. These probes included allegations of corruption against municipal officials, developers and architects. Catella, who denied any wrongdoings, said that he was refused house arrest by two courts in the summer of last year, including Italy's Supreme Court. This, according to Coima's investors, vindicated his position. Good Metrics Beatrice Guedji is the head of research and innovations at Swiss Life Asset Managers France. She oversees the real estate investments in Italy. She said that the themes of Meloni's momentum, and the growth prospects for the country, were what drove investment. Swiss Life Asset Managers France increased its allocation to Italy in 2025 by 15%, with property investment since 2018 expected to reach 500 millions euros by early 2026. Guedji cited "good key metrics", including a narrower spread between the benchmark Italian and German bonds, an improved rating outlook and the Milan Stock Exchange outperforming other European exchanges as indicators of reduced country risk. In recent years, Milan, in particular, attracted a number of millionaires due to the flat tax that is applied to very wealthy foreigners. MILAN in the Spotlight AGAIN The economic growth is still sluggish, but the Winter Olympics in Milan, which were co-hosted in February, are bringing money into the economy. It is expected to grow 0.7% by 2026 after a 0.5% increase in 2025 according to the Bank of Italy's forecast. The impact of the Olympics on the real estate market could be temporary. Guedji noted that her firm was focused on long-term investments. The fallout of the Milan property scam continues to linger. Some investigations of alleged violations of building codes have already been tried, and others are still in the early stages. More than 4,100 families still wait to move into apartments at frozen projects they paid for. LACK OF NEW SUPPLY The market is also concerned with supply. Scenari Immobiliari predicts that investment in Italy’s real estate market will increase to?12bn euros in 2026, up from 11.5bn last year. However, it warns that medium-term supply restrictions could limit growth. The total number of residential transactions is expected to rise by 7% in 2025. However, newly constructed units will only account for 10%, a drop from the historical average of 15%. Francesca Zirnstein said that "mid-sized residential projects – the 20-30 unit building replenishing stock – have often been stalled due to tougher dialogues between Scenari Immobiliari and public administrations." She said that the market was healthy and growing but that urban regeneration had slowed down due to investigations. This would result in fewer new development in the next few years.
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Dollar tips, RPT-stocks sway as Trump-Fed fight deepens
The dollar fell and U.S. stock futures dropped after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell claimed that the Trump administration had?threatened? him with a criminal investigation, fueling investor concerns about the independence of the central bank. S&P 500 futures were down 0.5%. European futures fell 0.1% during the morning of Asia. The dollar dropped 0.2% against the major currencies, dropping below 158 yen to $1.1660. The news, traders said, was unsettling. However the immediate impact on interest rates is not known. Benchmark 10-year Treasury Futures rose by 3 ticks, resulting in an implied yield (4.15%), which is about one basis point less than Friday's close of the cash market. Fed fund futures added about three basis point more in cuts in this year. This is small, but indicates the risk that the Fed will be pushed to become more aggressive. Unrest in Iran boosted precious metal prices and supported oil, causing gold to reach a record-high of $4,600 per ounce. Powell claimed that the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal investigation and issued grand jury subpoenas for Congressional testimony he provided last?summer about a Fed building project. He called this action a "pretext", aimed at forcing the central bank into cutting?interest rates. These developments represent a dramatic escalation of the battle between Powell and U.S. president Donald Trump that dates back to Powell's first year as chairman in 2018. Andrew Lilley is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, a Sydney-based investment bank. The only reason he is taking these actions is because he knows he won't be able to control the Fed. He wants to exert as much pressure?as possible. Investors will not be pleased, but this shows that Trump has no other levers at his disposal. The FOMC will keep the cash rate at what they want it to be. The dollar's sharpest reaction was a fall, even when compared to currencies that are typically risk-sensitive like Australian and New Zealand dollar. This helped the yen escape intervention-risk territory by falling below 158 dollars. Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank, said: "This open war between the Fed and U.S. government... is not good for the U.S. Dollar." Trump's threats of?intervening in Iran, where the protests against the clerical regime appear to be intensifying has helped oil prices maintain recent gains, and highlighted the swirling geopolitical risk for the coming year. Brent crude futures fell about 40 cents, to $62.90 per barrel. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan climbed 0.5%, while Japanese markets remained closed on a holiday. The second week of the new year will feature U.S. inflation figures, trade data from China, and a number of U.S. earnings starting with JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and BNY. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Tom Westbrook)
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Japan embarks on rare earth search as China tightens supply
A Japanese mining vessel left on Monday for an atoll coral to explore mud rich in rare earths. This is part of Tokyo’s efforts to reduce its dependence on China as Beijing restricts the supply. The Chikyu test vessel will be on a month-long mission near Minamitori Island, some 1,900 km (1200 miles) south of Tokyo. This is the first time in the history of mankind that a seabed sludge of rare earths can be continuously lifted from?6km (4 miles) depth onto a ship. Japan has reduced its dependency on China, as have its Western allies. These minerals are vital for the production of smartphones, military equipment and cars. This effort has become more urgent due to a major diplomatic disagreement with Beijing. After seven years of preparation we can now begin the confirmation test. Shoichi Ishii said, "It's deeply moving," as the vessel left the port city Shizuoka, on a sunny, bright day with Mount Fuji snow-capped in the background. He said that if the project is successful, it would have a great impact on diversifying Japan's procurement of rare earth resources. Recovering key minerals 6 km beneath sea level was a significant technological achievement. The vessel with 130 crew members and researchers is scheduled to return?to the port on February 14th. It won't be easy to reduce dependence on China China has banned the export of some minerals that are critical to Japan's military. The Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing has begun to restrict rare-earth exports more broadly. Japan condemned China's ban on dual-use but refused to comment about reports of a wider ban. China has neither confirmed nor denied the report. Chinese state media have reported that Beijing is weighing this measure. Sources familiar with the issue have confirmed that the finance ministers of the industrial powers in the Group?of Seven will meet on Monday to discuss the supply of rare-earth elements. Japan has faced China's anger over?rare Earths before. China halted exports in 2010 after an "incident" near disputed islands of the East China Sea. Japan's dependence on China has been reduced from 90% to 60% by investing overseas in projects such as the trading house Sojitz's tie up with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, and promoting rare earths recycling and manufacturing methods that depend less on minerals. However, the Minamitori Island Project is the first attempt to source rare Earths domestically. Takahide Kiuchi is the executive economist of Nomura Research Institute. He said that if the new export controls end up covering many rare earths, Japanese firms will once again try to get away from China. But I don't believe it will be an easy task. Analysts say that Japan's automotive industry is at risk because it is so dependent on China for?heavy rare earths such as magnets used in electric and hybrid vehicle motors. LONG-TERM PROJECT The Japanese government and private firms have been stockpiling the minerals since the 2010 scare. However, they don't disclose the volume. Several executives at a New Year’s party held for the mining industry in Japan on Wednesday said that they were more prepared than ever to deal with any disruptions. They cited Japan's stockpiles and diversification efforts. Kazumi Nishikawa is the principal director of economic security in the Trade Ministry. He said that the government must constantly remind businesses to diversify their supply chain. "Sometimes you know, an event happens, and then the business reacts. But the event ends, and the business forgets." Nishikawa said on this week's China Talk podcast that we must maintain our efforts. The government's Minamitori Island Project, which has cost 250 million dollars in 40 billion yen since 2018, is a long-term investment. No production goal has been established and the estimated reserves of the mine have not been revealed. If the trial is successful, full-scale mining will begin in February 2027. The high cost of mining mud made it uneconomical. If the supply disruption from China continues and more buyers are willing to pay higher price, then this project may become viable within the next few years, according to Kotaro Shiimizu, principal consultant at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting. China keeps a close eye on the situation. Ishii stated that a fleet Chinese naval ships were nearby when the ship conducted surveys around the island last June. He said: "We are deeply disturbed by the intimidatory actions taken." China claimed that its actions were compliant with international law, and called upon Japan to "refrain" from making threats. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Shizuoka. Katya Golubkova in Tokyo. Writing by John Geddie. Editing by William Mallard.)
Goldman predicts lower oil prices by 2026, as the supply increases
Goldman Sachs stated in a Sunday note that oil prices will likely drift lower as a wave supply creates an excess on the market. However, geopolitical risk?tied to Russia Venezuela and Iran?will continue to drive volatility.
The investment 'bank' maintained its forecasts for 2026 of $56/$52 a barrel for Brent/WTI and expects Brent/WTI to reach a low point at $54/50 by the end of the quarter due to OECD inventory buildup.
Goldman Sachs stated that "rising global oil inventories and our forecast for a 2.3mb/d excess in 2026 suggests that rebalancing of the market will likely require?lower prices in 2026 in order to slow non-OPEC growth in supply and support solid demand 'growth.
Brent crude futures are trading at $63 per barrel as of 0412 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas intermediate crude is holding steady at $59 a barrel. Both benchmarks had their worst year since 2020 with a decline of almost 20%.
Analysts at the bank note that the focus of U.S. policymakers on a strong?energy supply, and relatively low oil costs will prevent sustained oil price increases ahead of the midterms.
Goldman analysts wrote in a report that prices are expected to slowly start recovering by 2027. The market will return to a deficit, as non-OPEC supplies slow down and demand continues to grow. The investment bank estimates Brent/WTI will average $58/54 by 2027. This is $5 less than their previous estimate. They cite a?upgrade to supply for 2027 in the U.S. Venezuela and Russia of 0.3, 0.40 and 0.5mb/d respectively.
Goldman said it expected a significant price recovery in the second half of this decade, as demand increases through 2040, after years with low long-cycle investments. Prices for Brent/WTI will average $75/$71 between 2030-2035, which is $5 less than its previous estimate.
Goldman added that despite geopolitical risk and low speculative positions, it does not expect any OPEC production reductions.
Oil producers can hedge the price decline in 2026 by shorting the Brent time-spread 2026Q3 to Dec2028.
(source: Reuters)