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Weak Asia refining margins see swing to crude from the Americas: Russell

The earnings from turning a barrel of crude oil into fuels in Asia is at the most affordable in 7 months, which is leading refiners to turn away from expensive Middle East grades and seek less expensive alternatives from the Americas.

Refiners are being hit by the double whammy of greater rates from Saudi Arabia, the leading exporter and price-setter for much of the unrefined exported from Middle East, as well as soft need for some refined products, including commercial and transportation pillar diesel.

The crack spread, or earnings margin, from making fuels from a. barrel of Middle East benchmark Dubai crude at a typical. Singapore refinery << DUB-SIN-REF > ended at $2.27 a barrel on. Monday, down from $2.69 on May 10 and the most affordable since Oct. 20.

The margin is down 77% from its peak up until now in 2024 of $9.91. a barrel, reached on Feb. 13.

Refining margins have actually been squeezed in Asia as unrefined rates. have risen faster than those for refined fuels, with global. benchmark Brent crude futures rising from a six-month. low of $72.29 a barrel on Dec. 13 to a current high of $92.18 on. April 12, before moderating to end at $83.45 on Monday.

Making it tougher for refiners in Asia is the boosts in. official asking price (OSPs) for crude from Saudi Arabia,. which stays the leading supplier to the world's most significant importing. region.

Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil major,. lifted its OSP for its benchmark Arab Light grade to a premium. of $2.90 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai average for Asian. consumers for June-loading freights.

This was up from a premium of $2 a barrel for May and took. the premium to the greatest because January.

There are signs that Asian refiners are trying to limit the. volume of Saudi crude they acquire.

Asia's imports from Saudi Arabia dropped to 4.88 million. barrels daily (bpd) in April, below 5.07 million bpd in. March and 5.52 million bpd in February, according to information. compiled by LSEG Oil Research Study.

Volumes from Saudi Arabia might remain constrained in coming. months, with Chinese refiners expected to lower their imports. from there by 5.8 million barrels in June from May's imports of. 45 million barrels, according to sources with understanding of the. matter.

China is Saudi Arabia's largest consumer in Asia, however has. been surpassed by Russia as the top supplier to China, as. refiners look for Russian freights that are at affordable prices. due to the fact that of Western sanctions against Moscow.

AMERICAS CRUDE RISE

Asia has actually largely changed Saudi barrels with crude from the. United States and Brazil, according to LSEG data.

Imports from the United States increased to 1.67 million bpd in. April, up from 1.40 million bpd in March and 1.16 million bpd in. February.

Asia's U.S. imports are forecast by LSEG to reach a record. high of 1.76 million bpd in May.

Arrivals from Brazil increased to 1.28 million bpd in April,. up from 1.13 million bpd in March and February's 840,000 bpd.

U.S. and Brazilian crude tends to be priced versus U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, which trade at a. discount to both Brent and Dubai.

WTI closed at $79.12 a barrel on Monday, a discount rate of $4.78. to Dubai's finish of $83.90.

Even accounting for higher freight charges, crude from the. Americas can enter Asia at prices substantially more affordable than. similar grades from the Middle East.

There are restrictions as to how much more oil from the. Americas that Asian refiners can take, given numerous refineries are. configured to work on medium and heavy crude, as opposed to the. lighter grades typical of U.S. crude.

But within those constraints it's clear that refiners are. actively trying to move far from Middle East crudes as much as. possible, a trend likely to continue until Aramco chooses to. lower its OSPs in order to preserve market share.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .