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Investors watch Middle East conflict as gold climbs to a two-week high
Gold reached a two-week high on Wednesday. Supported by technical 'buying' and safe-haven demand as investors watched diplomatic efforts to ease the Middle East conflict, and prepared for the U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting next week for clues about interest rate outlook. Gold spot rose by 1.1% at 1200 GMT to $4,121.90 an ounce, after hitting its highest level since 7th July earlier in the day. ?U.S. Gold futures for August deliveries rose 1.3% to $4 128.00. Safe-haven demand, and the hope that the ongoing diplomatic 'efforts' between the U.S., and Iran, could still lead to a lowering of oil prices, are offseting the concerns that higher oil costs could fuel inflation and keep interest rates high for longer. He said that the current price rebound is likely to be hampered by volatile energy prices. However, the $4,000 an ounce level still provides strong technical support. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state said earlier on Wednesday that Washington was willing to negotiate a resolution to the Iran Crisis but that Tehran wasn't serious about talking. Three oil tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for China and India reversed their course in the Red Sea after being threatened by Iran-aligned Houthis from Yemen, driving up oil prices. Gold prices are down from the record highs reached in January. The war has stoked inflation fears, and increased the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can make it less attractive. A poll revealed that the Fed is likely to maintain its key rate for the rest of 2026. Markets are pricing in two rate increases by the end March of next year. CME FedWatch Tool showed that traders now expect a?70% probability of an interest rate increase in September. Silver spot rose by 1%, to $59.34 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.9%, to $1.643.96, while palladium climbed 2.3%, to $1.311.00.
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Why are Washington and the Middle East concerned about a proposed US/Saudi nuclear agreement?
Two sources claim that the Trump administration supports a nuclear energy agreement with Riyadh, which allows Saudi Arabia to enrich and process spent atomic material. This could worry states in the region concerned about proliferation of weapons. Here are some of main issues: What has happened so far? Washington and Riyadh are discussing a deal for nuclear cooperation that would allow Saudi Arabia to access U.S. technologies and American companies to compete to win large contracts?for Saudi atomic power facilities. Concerns about security, weapons proliferation, and political complications have always been a major concern with nuclear technology. Saudi Arabia, like 'all signatories' to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT, has already agreed to accept international inspections and not develop an atomic weapon. Washington has always sought additional protections. This week, two sources said that the Trump Administration was ready to present an agreement to Congress. The sources claimed that the pact did not include a "gold standard", which would have prohibited Saudi Arabia from enriching or processing spent nuclear fuel, both of which could be used to make material for warheads. It also does not contain a "additional protocols" of additional international oversight. These omissions will likely worry U.S. Middle East Allies, including Israel. They also raise questions about consistency. One of the reasons for the U.S. War on Iran in this year was the refusal of Iran to give up its enrichment programme. Congress may also be opposed to the deal, as members have demanded stricter restrictions in the past. Why Does Saudi Arabia Want a Nuclear Program? Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, may not appear to be an obvious candidate for nuclear energy, but its Vision 2030 economic plan, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aims to reduce carbon emissions and release crude for export. In 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that 68% Saudi electricity is generated by burning natural gas and 32% using oil. During June's peak power month, 1.4 million barrels of crude oil are used per day for power production. The kingdom could make more money by selling oil if it used atomic power to replace some of the energy intensive water desalination systems and air conditioning. Saudi Arabia also stated that it would be forced to develop a nuclear weapon if Iran did so. This was a statement made in an apparent attempt to increase pressure on Tehran but also fueled concerns about the kingdom's own ambitions. Many nuclear-power-producing countries do not enrich uranium domestically, relying instead ?on imported enriched uranium fuel for use in their reactors. Saudi Arabia announced in January 2025 that it would enrich its uranium, a process which can be used for military purposes as well. The goal was to produce 'yellowcake fuel' that could be sold. What's in it for the United States? Commercial and strategic gains could be made. In an attempt by Trump's former Vice President Joe Biden, civil nuclear cooperation and security guarantees were important inducements in order to broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel for normalizing relations. These two issues have been separated, according to a report, although a nuclear agreement could be an incentive for U.S. diplomats to work with the Kingdom. Riyadh rules out normalizing relations with Israel in the absence of a Palestinian state. Last year, U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright met with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and stated that the two countries are on "a path" towards a civil nuclear deal. He did not mention a wider agreement over other issues, such as normalisation. The deal would place U.S. companies in the best position to win contracts for building nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia. It would also provide insight into the kingdom’s atomic program, which could ease any U.S. concerns over weapons proliferation. Section 123 (U.S. Atomic Energy Act) of 1954 allows the U.S. to?negotiate with other countries agreements for significant civil nuclear collaboration. The document specifies nine criteria that states must meet in order to prevent them from using nuclear technology to create nuclear weapons or to?transfer sensitive material to others. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that such pacts must be reviewed by Congress. SAUDI ARABIA HAS OPTIONS Even at this late date, several countries that have established nuclear industries are interested in or seen as potential partners with Saudi Arabia's nucleo-technical programme. China National Nuclear Corp, a state-owned company, reportedly bid for a nuclear plant in 2023. Rosatom, the state-owned nuclear company of Russia, which has built a reactor in Egypt, also signed a preliminary agreement with Riyadh. South Korea and France are also potential candidates, as they built reactors near the United Arab Emirates. The choice of a partner will depend on the technological offering, financing and geopolitical alignment. This includes conditions related to nuclear energy handling. URANIUM ENRICHMENT The key question is whether Washington would agree to build an uranium-enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia, when that might happen, and whether Saudi personnel could have access or if it was run by U.S. personnel under a "black box arrangement". Saudi Arabia could theoretically, without any safeguards in an agreement, use an enrichment plant to produce highly-enriched uranium. This material, when purified, can be used for bombs. Sources told us that the proposed U.S. Saudi agreement would provide a legal path for cooperation in the nuclear fuel cycle. This includes uranium enlargement, but it does not obligate Washington to transfer technology or capabilities related to this to the Kingdom. Then there are the diplomatic issues: Washington's closest regional ally, Israel, has consistently voiced its opposition to a Saudi nuclear civil programme.
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NOVAGOLD Resources will acquire Paulson Donlin's interests for $4.2 billion
NOVAGOLD Resources announced 'on Wednesday that it would acquire 'the shares in Donlin Gold that it doesn't already own from Paulson Advisory in a stock deal, creating a gold producer with 4.2 billion dollars in value. Gold prices have risen to record levels, boosting cash flow and improving access to capital for miners. This has encouraged them to increase their reserves of precious metals - as well as their presence in safe mining areas such Canada and the United States. Upon the completion of the deal, a new company, NovaGold Corporation, will be formed. NOVAGOLD shareholders will own nearly 65%, and Paulson about 35%, in exchange for Donlin Gold's interest. Paulson will own approximately 40% of the new company, including its current equity in NOVAGOLD. The 'new company', which will be incorporated in Delaware will be co-chaired by NOVAGOLD Chairman John Paulson and Thomas Kaplan, with its board?expanded from 10 to 11. The deal is expected to close by the end of the fourth quarter. Reporting by Dharna Baffna, Bengaluru. Editing by Jonathan Ananda
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GE Vernova warns of $200 million tariff after disappointing second-quarter profits
After the company narrowly missed its estimates for second-quarter core profit, GE Vernova said on Wednesday that global tariffs will increase 'its costs between $100 and $200 million by '2026. Tariffs are a major burden on manufacturers, but contract protections as well as some cost recovery measures have contributed to the expected increase in costs. GE Vernova's shares fell 8% during premarket trading. According to LSEG, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based firm reported adjusted core earnings for the quarter of $1.25 billion, which was below analysts' expectations of $1.28 million. The wind business 'continued to lag behind its faster-growing Power and Electrification segment, due to weaker onshore gear deliveries and a higher offshore project cost. The revenue from the wind segment dropped by?about 10%, to $2.03 billion. However, its core losses increased to approximately $275 million. A POWER DEMAND-DRIVEN OUTLOOK UPGRADES Strong power demand and increasing orders helped the company to raise its revenue forecasts for 2026 for a second quarter in a row. The company now expects to make $45.5-$46.5 billion, up from $44.5-$45.5 billion. GE Vernova announced $24.2 billion in second-quarter orders, compared to $12.4 billion a year earlier. The U.S. is expected to increase its power consumption?in 2026?and 2027?as data center expansion?and electrification?drive demand. Commercial-sector demands are expected to exceed residential demand this year. The company also increased its forecast for annual free cash flow to $11.5-$12.5 billion, up from $6.5-$7.5 billion. The electrification division?reported core profits of $671 million, compared to $314 million one year ago. Meanwhile, the power division posted $1.03billion, a nearly 31.3% increase.
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El Nino's economic effects on Peru are broader than just the impact of hungry pelicans
Hundreds of hungry Pelicans are flocking into Peruvian ports,?coastal markets and other areas in search of food. This is an increasing visible sign of the strengthening El Nino climate pattern which threatens a number of key sectors of?country?s economy. Scientists claim that warmer ocean temperatures, linked to El Nino, are disrupting marine eco-systems along Peru's Pacific Coast. This is reducing fish stock and driving pelicans into urban areas. Some birds are fed by fishermen and traders but some may not survive. Carlos Zavalaga, a marine biologist, said: "The birds leave their breeding areas and die of lack of food." Climate experts warned that this year could see a strong El Nino or even a super-strong El Nino, which would increase the risk of heatwaves, droughts and floods. Economic concerns are growing. Peru's fisheries industry is concerned that exports may fall short of the projected $5 billion for this year after sales had reached $4.6 billion by 2025. This was according to Alfonso Miranda - former vice minister of fisheries, and chairman of the committee responsible for sustainable management of giant squids in the South Pacific. Miranda stated that there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what could happen. According to El Nino monitors in the country, ENFEN, sea surface temperatures are between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius higher than normal. This has led to commercial species moving into deeper water. The fishing industry's industrial activity fell by 31% during the first five months of this year. Agriculture grew by 0.4%. The Peruvian Congress approved an increase in the budget of $2.8 billion on July 15, to finance infrastructure?works, and to bolster preparations to heavy rains associated with adverse weather conditions. Agro-export sectors claim that these are inadequate. Peru is the third largest copper producer in the world. It also exports a lot of agricultural products, including blueberries. Agriculture exports hit a record of $15.1 billion by 2025, but producers warn that the outlook is deteriorating now that the main growing season has begun. Gabriel Amaro from the Peruvian agriculture producers' association AGAP said that El Nino will cost the sector an extra $1 billion in export revenue, which was forecasted for this year. He said, "We think this El Nino may be the worst for 50 years."
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Malta's capital suffers power cuts as temperatures soar
Malta's capital Valletta lost power on Wednesday, just a day after its prime minister apologized "unconditionally" for the wave of power cuts that swept the country over several days. "I would like to apologize to everyone who was without electricity during the last few hours. This apology is unconditional," Robert Abela, Prime Minister of the Republic of South Africa, said on Tuesday as people reported that they had spent the night without air conditioning or fans. Media reported that the outage affected many businesses and offices including the Prime Minister's Office, as well as various ministerial departments. The media reported that restaurants?had no choice but to throw out food. The power outage on Wednesday briefly interrupted the trial of a businessman charged with association in the 2017 car bombing murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia, a journalist. On the Mediterranean island, temperatures have reached 42 degrees after a heatwave lasting five days. On?Saturday, a July record of 43.3 centigrades was set. Enemalta, the state energy company, said that the power cuts were caused by faults on the distribution network due to extreme temperatures and the'record demand for electricty. "We have done a lot but the challenges are huge." Abela stated that the effects of climate changes are'showing, and temperatures are constantly increasing and lasting longer. The Nationalist Party, the opposition party, demanded compensation from businesses and families for damage. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Christopher Scicluna)
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Investors watch Middle East conflict as gold climbs to a two-week high
The price of gold climbed to its highest level in two weeks on Wednesday. This was largely due to technical 'buying' and safe-haven demand. Investors were also watching diplomatic efforts to calm the Middle East conflict, while looking forward to the Federal Reserve meeting next week for any clues about the future interest rate outlook. By 1010 GMT the spot gold price had risen 1%, to $4,115.89 an ounce, after hitting its highest level in over a month earlier that day. U.S. Gold futures for August delivered gained 1.1%, to $4120.60. Safe-haven demand is offset by concerns that higher oil costs could fuel inflation and keep interest rates high for longer. He said that the current price rebound is likely to be hampered by volatile energy prices. However, the $4,000 an ounce level still provides strong technical support. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said earlier on Wednesday that Washington was willing to negotiate a solution to the Iran Crisis but that Tehran wasn't serious about talking. Three oil tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for China and India turned back in the Red Sea after receiving threats from Yemeni Houthis who are aligned with Iran. This pushed up oil prices. Gold prices are down from the record highs reached in January after the war stoked inflation fears, and increased the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can make it less appealing. A poll shows that the 'Fed' is likely to maintain its key interest rate for the remainder of 2026. Markets are pricing in two rate increases by the end March next year. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that traders now expect a 68% probability of an interest rate increase in September. Silver spot rose 1%, to $59.35 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.1%, to $1.646.63, while palladium climbed 1.8%, to $1.305.41.
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Marco Rubio warns diplomats not to mention the 'kill switch" in American technology
According to a recent cable, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio asked diplomats to fight against the idea of a "kill button" on American technology products. This follows the White House's decision to keep foreigners away from America's advanced AI models. The talking points that were distributed worldwide show how U.S. Diplomats are dealing with the international backlash caused by Trump's attempts to control who and how American AI companies release models. The State Department refused to comment, and the White House didn't respond to a comment request. Anthropic was forced to suspend global access to its most advanced models Mythos and Fable after the Trump administration blocked non-U.S. citizens from using them on June 12, citing national security concerns. Asian tech executives used the "disruption" to promote their own alternatives, while European legislators redoubled calls for digital independence. The fallout from the ban lingers even though it was lifted the following month. The U.S. government's desire to police AI products, and possibly yank them from allies' hands at any moment, was heightened by the June 2 executive orders of?Trump, who asked AI companies to submit their models for 30 days to cybersecurity testing before their release. The episode, according to European legislator Christophe Grudler, showed that the U.S. has a "kill-switch" over vital technologies that it is more than willing to use. Aura Salla of the European People's Party (the largest political group in the European Parliament) said that Europe "cannot continue building its tech stack on access that could be turned off overnight by a foreign government." The State Department cable dated July 16 did not refer to Anthropic or specifically to Trump's executive orders or last month's banning of the company, but provided American diplomats talking points designed for countering arguments that have arisen in their wake. The cable stated that "Kill Switch" is not the requirement of a 30-day test window or the suspension of certain uses prior to releasing a new, highly-potent technology. There is no'magic' button on the government's part. This narrative is exaggerated, and it doesn't capture all the nuanced aspects of U.S. Technology Policy." AMERICAN AI SALE PITCH Rubio’s cable urged diplomats to oppose "so-called "digital sovereignty" initiatives. It defined these as?efforts that restrict American tech companies' access to foreign market, subject them localization requirements, or force them follow local rules such as content moderating. Rubio already told American diplomats earlier this year to oppose similar measures against data sovereignty. The cable discussed also how to counter "AI sovereign" arguments. It instructed American diplomats that American AI products were the best available tools and to describe efforts to build rival AI systems from scratch as a waste time and resources. The cable stated that "American AI firms can build large, autonomous AI infrastructure with secure and robust supplies chains that minimize backdoor risks." They build it. It's yours." Edward Fishman, the director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics, at the Council on Foreign Relations said that he understood the safety concerns which led the U.S. Government to impose first restrictions on Anthropic’s models. These can be used to turbocharge complex hacking activities. Fishman, however, said that Trump's administration's tendency to use coercive economic instruments such as tariffs or sanctions against friends and enemies alike made the State Department pitch difficult to sell. He said that European partners were worried that if they became "ultra-reliant" on U.S. frontier AI models, such as those produced by Anthropic or OpenAI, the U.S. might use this against them in the future. Salla, a European legislator, said that Trump's administration had repeatedly threatened countries such as Denmark, creating an atmosphere of distrust that could not be dispelled by rhetoric. She said, "They haven't shown us any evidence that they are reliable business partners." (Reporting and editing by Deepa Babyington, Raphael Satter)
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Alphabetting
By Mike Dolan
LONDON, JULY 22 - What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets
The oil prices, bond yields, and chip stocks all rose in tandem again over night as the renewed fighting between the U.S.A. and Iran entered day eleven with no end in site. The chip rally in Asia stalled during a volatile session.?Wall Street futures are lower as investors wait for Alphabet's and Tesla's results later today.
All that and more will be discussed below. Check out my midweek article on some important market stories not in the news. This week, I focus on the jobs market puzzle. Also, I discuss shifting monetary goals and volatility in single stocks. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Alphabetizing Amid the fog and volatility of the market, Japan's currency is back in the red, reaching its lowest level in over 40 years at 163 to the dollar. This latest yen slide may be due to two factors: a recent surge in crude oil prices, which is a major inflationary threat for a country like Japan that imports a lot of oil, and a resumption by the United States of tariff threats. In the second case, it was reported that Japan wants to raise 'dollar financing in order to increase its investment in America under the February trade truce. Only about $2 billion of the $550 billion pledged at the time has been allocated so far. Tokyo traders have been apprehensive about the possibility of an official intervention to help support the yen, after Finance Minister Katayama again warned against it on Wednesday. Chip stocks were again the major movers overnight. The U.S. SOX index rose 5% on the Tuesday after the release of strong early July trade figures. However, it has since given back much of its gains. The news comes just as Alphabet prepares to release its second-quarter results, making it the first of the U.S. Big Tech companies to do so. The bar will be high. Analysis shows that the four AI hyperscalers' capex will exceed their operating cashflow by next year. This is a surprising shift, given that these companies are known for printing money. Tesla will also likely show that cash is being burned again when it releases its earnings today.
It is notable that the tech stocks bounced back, however brief it may have been. This was due to the tightening bond markets in the world as a result of crude oil returning to its six-week-high near $95 a barrel. The Pentagon says that there is no sign of a quick resolution to the Iran conflict, which has already cost the U.S. Government more than $37.5billion. Fuel storage for winter has returned to the forefront of the public's mind now that summer's peak is behind us. Goldman Sachs said this week that "if there is not a resolution to the Gulf Conflict soon, crude oil could reach $120/bbl by the fourth quarter." The UK market held steady after the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, said he wouldn't tinker with income-tax thresholds that could have cost government billions. UK inflation also eased to 2.6%.
DAY'S CHART
Brent crude oil prices rose to $95 per barrel on Tuesday, a six-week peak, amid fears that supply disruptions would continue after U.S. forces hit Iranian military targets the 11th consecutive night. Following a warning by the Iran-aligned Houthi, three oil tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for China and India turned around in the Red Sea to head towards the Suez Canal instead of navigating the Yemeni coastline. A new front in the escalating conflict has opened, causing concern about winter fuel storage.
Today's Events to Watch
* Earnings of Alphabet, Tesla and other companies, including AT&T, Moody's CSX, Philip Morris Northern Trust, CME ServiceNow, Texas Instruments
The U.S. Treasury is selling?20-year Bonds
* Chicago Fed June Business Survey, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed here are the author's. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is committed, as part of the Trust Principles to independence, integrity and freedom from bias. (Written by Mike Dolan).
(source: Reuters)