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ROI-Guinea bets bauxite dominance can reshape aluminium supply: Andy Home
Guinea, a country in West Africa, is now the world's largest producer of bauxite - the raw material that ultimately becomes aluminium. It is now trying to use its newfound dominance in order to exert greater control over price and industry structure. Just as Indonesia did in nickel, and the Democratic Republic of Congo in cobalt. Three resource giants struggle to control mining sectors which have?grown too large too fast, flooding global markets and crashing the prices. Indonesia uses mining quotas. The Congo has export quotas. Guinea is considering a combination of the two to stop operators from exporting more than what their mining quotas permit them to produce. Conakry has the opportunity to follow Indonesia's example by shifting from bauxite to alumina refinement and capturing more value of its resources. The commitment of Chinese state-owned aluminium producer Chalco to build a $1 billion refinery is proof that the strategy is working. BAUXITE BOOM Bauxite, the third-most abundant element on Earth's surface, is too dispersed and/or too low in quality to be converted into alumina. Guinea is home to the largest reserves of metallurgical Bauxite in the world. It also produces a highly-pure?product valued for its low natural silica content. China has become the largest producer of bauxite in the world, surpassing Australia by 2023. It now represents around 40% of the global production and 70% of seaborne exports. Guinea's exports increased by 25% in 2025 to 183 millions metric tons, which led to the prices falling by nearly half during the last year and first part of 2026. The government is looking for the best way to slow down the market without creating the kind of disruption that Congo's export quotas caused. CHINESE DEPENDENCY China is increasingly dependent on Guinea to supply bauxite for its massive aluminium sector. Imports from Guinea grew rapidly, rising from 334,000 tons of bauxite in 2015 to 149,000,000 tons by 2025. By then they represented 74% of total bauxite exports. China's bauxite deposits are depleted after decades of mining, and they're a lower quality than those found in Guinea. The country's alumina refinery capacity has also been boosted in the past century. This is far more than its domestic bauxite mine capacity. The Chinese have plenty of time to prepare for the planned crackdown by Guinea on its bauxite industry. Imports from Guinea in March reached a record monthly volume of 18 million tonnes. The scale of the flow of materials makes it difficult to break the dependence. The nature of the dependency will however change. ALUMINA AMBITIONS Chalco's commitment to building the new 1.2-million-ton-per-year alumina refinery shows how seriously China takes the threat to the flow of raw materials. This is the first significant overseas investment by China's giant state corporation in alumina. This is the third alumina refinery announced by China in recent months. The only refinery in Guinea is the Friguia plant. It was built in 1960 and has been owned by France's Pechiney and then by U.S. producers Reynolds, and since 2008, by Rusal. The refinery was shut down between 2012 and 2018, but it is now operating, although at a lower capacity than its original 650,000 tons per year. Conakry's government aims to build five or six additional processing plants by 2030, with a combined?capacity of 7 million tons alumina. The seizure last year of mining assets by Emirates Global Aluminium for failing to fulfill a commitment for refining, has served as a warning to other operators. NEW INDUSTRY HUB Guinea follows Indonesia's lead, which in 2023 banned the export of bauxite to force miners into building up processing capacity. Guinea does not have enough energy to refine alumina or smelt it into aluminium. If Guinea is able to implement its strategy successfully, it could be a catalyst for the development of a West African hub for alumina. Other African bauxite-producing countries are also following the same path of value-added to keep more of their mineral revenue. Nigeria signed a $1.3billion investment deal with Africa Finance Corporation to build an alumina refining plant, while Ghana wants to do the exact same thing under the auspices?of the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation. The shift in Africa from mining to "first-stage processing" could have a transformative effect on the aluminum supply chain. The seaborne bauxite industry will shrink. The global alumina market will grow and China's domestic refineries of alumina will be in competition with the largest raw material suppliers. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Gold recovers from a one-week low after Iran mentions progress in peace negotiations
?Gold recovered from a more than?one week low on Monday as oil prices dropped after Iran cited the progress of U.S. - Iran peace talks. However, bets for higher interest rates following hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve signalling limited the metal's gain. As of 0424 GMT spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,176.34 an ounce after dropping to its lowest level since June 11, on Friday. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1.2% to $4194.40. According to Press TV, the first round of talks between senior U.S. officials and Iranian officials ended in Switzerland on Monday. An Iranian spokesperson said that 'good progress had been made. In a joint statement, the mediating nations Qatar & Pakistan stated that Iran and the U.S. agreed on a road map to reach a final agreement within 60 days. Edward Meir is an analyst with Marex. He said, "The current situation in Switzerland?is very different than a few hours back when they were fighting. But now, it appears that there's some progress." "We will continue to trade on geopolitical principles for some time, but since the situation is still fluid, it's best to stay out of the fray for the moment." Brent crude futures dropped over 1% following the announcement. The rising oil price fuels inflation fears and increases expectations for higher interest rates. Gold tends to lose its appeal when interest rates are high because it doesn't?yield any interest. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, spoke about inflation at his press conference last week, but without any other more nuanced comments on what could clear the bar for a rate increase. This led investors to believe that an increase was imminent. Nine out of 19 Fed policymakers think they'll need to increase the policy rate in the coming year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see an 89% probability of a rate hike in December. This is up from 61% prior to?the Fed meeting. Silver spot rose by 1%, to $65.53 an ounce. Platinum fell by 0.3%, to $1,659.40. Palladium increased 0.6%, to $1,265.12. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi Cheema, Sonia Cheema, and Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru)
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Indian shares surge on hopes for peace in the Middle East; Reliance's Jio IPO gets a boost
Indian shares rose in the early trade on Monday, following their Asian counterparts after the?U.S. - Iran peace talks at the weekend raised hope that the long-running?conflict might be coming to an end. The first round of 'U.S.-Iran 'talks ended on a positive note, with progress made on a roadmap to a final agreement within 60 days. This helped calm investor nerves following a tense start marked by Tehran announcing it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. As of 10 a.m. IST, India's benchmark Nifty rose by 0.5% to 24,133. The BSE Sensex gained 0.52%, reaching 77,192.54. 13?of 16 major sectors? gained. Small-caps and middle-caps gained 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The only thing that is causing concern at this point is the rain deficit, said G. Chokkalingam. He's the founder and head researcher of Equinomics. Brokers say that the Jio Platforms, AI businesses and new energy businesses will be the key growth drivers for the oil-totelecom conglomerate. Sources claim that Jio filed for a $3.8 Billion IPO, which could be the largest in India. The IT index, which fell 3.7% Friday following Accenture's poor demand forecast, rose 1.2%. The return of foreign inflows, after a record outflow of $30.6 billion year-todate, helped boost market sentiment. Foreign investors purchased 48.59?billion?rupees ($515.2m) worth of Indian shares last Friday. This was their 'largest daily purchase since February 1, driven by changes in an FTSE Index. Chokkalingam stated that "concerns about foreign?outflows will ease as a result of recent policy measures and the decline in crude oil prices." Kirloskar Oil Engines, a stock in the oil industry, soared by 20% after receiving an order.
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London Copper prices rise after volatile Mideast Peace Negotiations
The London Metal Exchange saw a slight increase in copper prices on Monday, as the market digested the turbulent weekend of U.S. - Iran peace negotiations. Benchmark three-month Copper on the 'LME rose 0.41% by 0300 GMT to $13,650.5 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell by 0.46%, to 104 490 yuan per ton ($15 425.16). After the peace talks between the U.S.A. and Iran, traders closely monitored the macroeconomic climate. Mediators confirmed that the first round of high level peace talks concluded on Monday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to resume his attacks and Tehran announced that it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Conflict has affected the base metal market, dampening appetite for risk and increasing energy prices. This has had a negative impact on growth expectations. Brent crude fell by 2.04%. Market participants are also watching the potential introduction of U.S. tariffs on copper imports. Copper prices have been supported by tariff concerns and material has been pulled from outside U.S. warehouses. Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, is expected to review the tariff and make a recommendation by the end June. The U.S. is considering a 15% tariff on copper imports starting in 2027 and then a 30% tax from 2028. The SHFE reported on Thursday that copper inventories in the?warehouses it monitors fell by 23.6%. The data from the exchange showed that on Friday, copper inventories in LME registered warehouses dropped by 3,575 tons. This brought their total to 352,150 tonnes. The number of cancelled warrants (indicating metal earmarked to be withdrawn) reached 37%. Aluminium was the least affected metal on the LME, with a 0.01% decrease. Zinc rose by?0.1%, while lead fell 0.13%. Nickel grew 0.94%, and tin jumped?1.12%. Other metals on SHFE have also seen a rise of 0.33%. Zinc has fallen by 0.72%. Lead is down 0.76%. Nickel is down 0.98%. Tin is down 1.69%.
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Business leaders from around the world support a faster shift to electrification
OVER 100 COMPANIES, INCLUDING UBER AND NESTLE?URGE GOVERNMENTS?TO MAKE ELECTRIFICATION CENTRAL IN ECONOMIC STRATEGY 'Nestle' and Ikea, among others, urged government officials to put electrification at the forefront of their economic strategies to reduce exposure to volatile fuel prices and boost energy security. They said that exposure to fossil fuel price shocks undermined their competitiveness. With combined revenues of $1.5 trillion annually, the group also included Iberdrola and Volvo Cars, Mahindra Group and Uber, Nikon Corporation and Levi Strauss. The statement was coordinated by the Global Renewables Alliance and the We Mean Business Coalition. It added that the ability to make this shift depends on a clear and predictable government's policy and reforms. This includes improving electricity market design and investing in grids. The statement noted that many companies and governments are reevaluating their energy strategies as a result of recent price spikes linked to the Iran conflict. The intervention coincides with the start of London Climate Action Week. More than 75,000 people are expected to attend more than 1,000 events, including policymakers, investors, and company executives. This also 'aligns' with a Turkish push, as the host of the COP31 Climate Talks?in November. Turkey wants?countries? to agree on a global goal for electricity to provide 35% of world energy demand by 2035. The statement stated that many of the technologies required to electrify sectors like transport, industry, buildings, and other industries are already available commercially and could help lower the overall energy consumption. (Reporting by Simon Jessop; Editing by Kirby Donovan) (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan; Simon Jessop)
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China coking coal prices continue to decline despite rising supply
China's futures for coking coal continued to fall on Monday. They were weighed down by the prospect of rising supplies amid a continued production resume after a fatal mine accident in coal rich Shanxi, and?growing imported coal. By 0330 GMT, the most traded coking coal contract at the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), had fallen 1.93% to $187.32 per metric ton. The DCE's most actively traded coke contract dropped 0.74%, to 2,010.5 Yuan per ton. According to a survey conducted by Mysteel, as of June 17, 63% of the coal mines which had suspended production after the fatal mine disaster in late May have now resumed. Customs data also showed that China's imports of coking coal in may increased by 51% compared to the previous year, while imports for the entire year jumped by 25%. Traders predict that China's coking coal imports will continue to increase this year. Galaxy Futures analysts said that the recent slump in coking coal prices is not due to a radical change in fundamentals but reflects a shift in traders' focus from fears of a supply shortage to the resumption of production. The analysts at Galaxy Futures said that "uncertainties" still clouded the pace of production for other mines and it was unlikely to recover to pre-accident levels. Investors weighed the still-resilient steelmakers' demand against high portside inventories to determine iron ore prices. The most-traded DCE iron ore contract fell 0.13%, to 745 yuan per ton. As of 0254 GMT, the benchmark July?iron-ore contract on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 0.31% to $98.95 per ton. Mysteel data show that the average daily 'hot metal output', which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by?0.6% from the previous week to 2,42 million tons on June 18. This was the highest level since September 2025. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar fell 0.32%, while hot-rolled coil dropped 0.42%. Stainless steel was down 0.13%, and wire rod gained 0.51%.
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China export controls on US rare earths and other companies
China has added what it says are 10 'U.S. China has added 10 entities related to the U.S. military on its export control list in retaliation after Washington placed a number Chinese firms on their list earlier this month. Aveox, an Aveox is a specialist motor manufacturer for mission critical applications. Rare earth producers MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are also on the list. This prevents Chinese exporters to sell dual-use products to them. China's Commerce Ministry stated in a Monday statement that the measures were a response to "the U.S. government’s malicious practice". They were also taken to protect national security and interests as well as fulfill international obligations, such as nonproliferation. The report said that any ongoing export activities between these companies and other countries should cease immediately. China's Finance Ministry announced in a separate notice that it had also decided to impose?measures on 46 U.S. firms. Chinese buyers will be unable to purchase any of their products, but U.S. funded enterprises in China can continue to do so. The United States has added Chinese automakers BYD and NIO to a list it believes is aiding Beijing's army. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs, Shanghai newsroom)
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Traders say that China's imports of coking coal will rise due to the Shanxi mine accident, which has affected supply.
China's coking coal imports are expected to increase this year, after a deadly?mine accident reduced the domestic supply. Chinese importers are turning to Canada and Australia as producers for June and July delivery after 155 mines in Shanxi province, China's largest coal producer, closed for safety checks in response to the accident that occurred in late May. Local coking coal costs had soared after the closures. A survey conducted by the consultancy Mysteel revealed that as of June 17th, 64% of production capacity affected had resumed. Johnny Deng, vice-manager of ferrous metals for trading firm Gent Commodity?, told the Singapore Coking Coal Conference on Thursday that production was still below pre-accident levels. He anticipates that the utilisation rate will average between 70% and 80%. This is down from earlier levels of 105% to 110%. Deng said, "We imported a few Canadian loads into China when the prices soared after the accident." The price of coking coal futures reached a 19-month peak on June 8 at 1,486.5 yuan per ton, but has fallen 5% in the last week. State media reported last month that the initial investigation revealed 'further safety concerns at the mines. The government has pledged to leave no stone untouched. Edwin Yeo is a senior manager at trading firm Exen Resources. He expects that there will be a shortage between 20 and 30 million tons, even after the plants are restarted. He told the conference that this was especially true for higher-grade cargoes which are not available from Russia or Mongolia. China's coking coal imports in the first quarter of this year have risen by 20% from their low point a year earlier due to increased supply from major producers like Mongolia and better border logistics. This is despite a drop in steel production of 4.1%. This increase in Chinese imports also prompted concerns about stiffer competition among global suppliers. Junxing Zhang is a manager of PT Kinrui New Energy Technologies Indonesia. The company produces metallurgical coal. Zhang stated that "we cannot compete with them in a market where coals are very popular," adding that they purchase material from countries with less demand for Chinese coal, such as Colombia and the U.S. to keep costs down. Some traders and steelmakers, however, are wary of importing more coal into China due to the tightened steel margins and uncertainty in steel demand. It's difficult to predict the prices in two or three months...we haven't decided to purchase more seaborne cargoes," said an executive from a Chinese Steelmaker at a conference. The manager declined to give his name as he was not authorized to speak to media. The trader also said that the gap in price between imports and domestic coking coal has shrunk, which reduces the incentive to increase shipping. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Eileen Soreng and Amy Lv)
Any progress with Hormuz on the line is good.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the markets will be like in Europe and around the world. The 'off-again-on-again' peace talks between Iran and the U.S. have been making?progress in Asia. After President Trump threatened to 'freshly attack Iran,' and Tehran announced that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, everything seemed to be in doubt. Iranian negotiators then claimed that progress was made during the first round of talks. Meanwhile, officials from Oman and Pakistan said a committee would be formed to oversee the negotiations with the goal of achieving a deal within 60 days. It was unclear what the status of the strait is. The U.S. Central Command reported that 55 vessels had passed through the strait on Saturday. Tracking showed 32 the day before. Iran said a system would be established to regulate the waterway. This could include a fee for shipping.
Brent crude oil reversed course and fell?2.5% below $79.00 per barrel. Meanwhile, Asian share markets rose. Wall Street Treasuries and futures pared their early losses despite the growing risk of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Futures suggest that there is a 75% probability of a rate hike as soon as September, and a 41 basis point tightening at the end of the year. The yields on 2-year Treasuries have reached their highest level since early 2025, at 4.2276%. Trump caused a stir when he posted that Keir Starmer, the UK's Prime Minister, was going to resign. This followed reports in multiple media that Starmer planned to announce his plans in order to allow for a leadership contest by Andy Burnham. Burnham won a seat in Parliament by a landslide last week.
Burnham, if true, is expected to take the top job. He will likely shake up the Cabinet - including replacing Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The gilt market does not know how serious Burnham is about fiscal discipline and is concerned that he may end up borrowing and spending more.
Key developments which could affect the?markets on a Monday: - Federal Reserve Board governor Christopher Waller makes a welcome speech
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks with Economy Commissioner Valdis Dobrovskis
EU Consumer Confidence for June
Canadian Inflation for May
(source: Reuters)