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US 30-year yield reaches 2007 high; stocks try to recover after earnings

On Thursday, the U.S. government’s?long term borrowing costs reached their highest level since 2007. Global shares also tried to recover after Microsoft’s?earnings reduced some AI concerns.

The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds hit a high of 5,244% in New York trading the day before, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at the same level as the previous day, even though Chair Kevin Warsh gave mixed messages about monetary policy and inflation expectations.

The Fed's next moves were difficult to predict, and Warsh's decision not to provide any forward guidance made it even more difficult.

Investors are frightened by the steep drops in some of the largest winners of the AI boom. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.23% to end its third day of losses.

Sanjiv Tumkur is the head of equity analysis at Rathbones.

Microsoft's and Meta's earnings confirmed that investors are looking for signs of a return on the expensive?AI buildout.

Microsoft shares rose by 9.02% before the market opened after the tech giant said that it expected to continue generating cash until fiscal 2027. Meta shares fell 8.34% after earnings that showed the strain caused by its expensive AI bets.

Analysts at Jefferies wrote that Microsoft has "hit the jet stream" while Meta is still constructing the runway.

Futures on the Nasdaq 100, a tech-heavy index, rose by 1.28%. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures also gained, with gains of 0.59%, 0.36% and 0.59%, respectively.

The benchmark STOXX Europe 600 index rose by 0.58%. After two sessions of declines, the MSCI All Country World Price Index climbed 0.22%.

GREY SKIES Ahead

Investors are finding it difficult to assess the inflationary impact of higher oil prices, as renewed Middle East tensions have complicated this week's make-or-break market.

Brent crude prices dropped last month, which helped to keep inflation in June under control. However, oil prices have since risen above $90 per barrel.

Three?Fed Policymakers Dissented on Wednesday in Favor of a Rate Hike, Leading Some Analysts to Question if Warsh’s “good family fight” may become more challenging to navigate if inflation pressures persist.

RBC Economics strategists wrote: "As Fed enters the second half of the year, we expect it to be confronted with inflation as a persisting issue."

The central bank could use the rate hold to buy time until their next meeting in September. This would allow them to analyze two more inflation reports. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of an increase at this meeting have increased from 57.3% to 63.2%.

Questions remain about whether any rate hikes are useful. Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said that it was foolish to raise rates when faced with a bout of supply-shock inflation.

Rate increases?usually cool demand-driven prices, but the inflation?threat is grounded in the prospect of limited oil supplies?if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue.

The strait plays a vital role in the global oil flow. Further complicating matters, the Houthis-backed Iranians have also attacked the alternative route through Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengalur and Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee and Arun K. Koyyur in Singapore. Editing by Amanda Cooper and Mrigank Dhaniwala.

(source: Reuters)