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Croatian fishermen hang their nets in response to fuel price hikes due to the Iran war
Dinko Cvjetojevic, a fishing captain in Dubrovnik whose day's work was halted because of the rising cost of fuel, sat on his?boat, moored there. The summer was approaching fast, and it was sunny. There were plenty of fish in the sea. Cvjetojevic, however, had already done the math. Fuel costs now account for as much as 90% of all operating costs. This is roughly double what they were before the conflict cut off the Strait of Hormuz, the main oil export route. This made fishing "completely non-profitable". He said: "As you can see, today is a beautiful day but the ships have been moored." He'stocked up fuel before the prices went up, so he could 'keep a second ship?running for the time being. He said, "I am constantly trying to keep alive." If it continues like this, we will work for another month and then go swimming. Commercial fishing is an important but small sector on the Adriatic coast of Croatia. It employs several thousand people, and provides fresh fish for restaurants and hotels in peak tourist season. When related activities are taken into account, tourism, Croatia's primary economic engine, represents about one-fifth the?gross?product. This leaves a large portion of the economy vulnerable if fuel prices continue to rise through the summer. Cvjetojevic stated that 'his boats usually supply markets from Dubrovnik and Istria with part of their catch being exported to Italy and Slovenia. He has now scaled down his business and is only selling locally. He said, "Without the state's help, I don't see a solution." (Reporting and writing by Antonio Bronic, Ivana Sekularac, Editing by Andrew Heavens).
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Aluminum prices rebound amid supply concerns in the US-Iran standoff
Aluminum?prices rose on Friday as a result of fears that supply would be limited due to the ongoing standoff between Iran and the U.S., which has impacted shipments from the Gulf, where there are large smelters. Iran warned on Thursday that it would respond to any new attacks by the United States with "long, painful strikes". In official open-outcry trade, benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 1.4% to $3.522 per metric ton, ending five sessions of losses. Metal used for construction, transportation and packaging reached $3,672 per?ton, its highest level in four years on April 16. This was after disruptions in operations in the Gulf?which accounts for around 9% of worldwide production. Prices fell after the truce that halted the attacks. Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist for WisdomTree, said: "It is?the danger of supply-side destruction due to a prolonged conflict, as the facilities in Qatar or Bahrain will not open?anytime? soon." There are indications of escalation and then de-escalation. You don't know where you stand at any given time. Prices are a bit choppy. Emirates Global Aluminium has said that it could take a full year to fully restore primary aluminium production in its Al Taweelah Smelter, which was damaged by an Iranian attack. The LME Cash Contract premium to the three-month Future The price of a ton rose by 7% on Friday to $60, after having more than doubled in the past two months. This indicates concerns about supply. The Shanghai Futures Exchange was closed for Labour Day until Wednesday, which slowed down trading. LME nickel dropped?0.5% during official activity, to $19380 per ton, after reaching a two-year high of $19 645 earlier in session due to reduced supplies from top producer Indonesia. Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer stated in a note that the nickel positioning adjustment was?remarkable. Funds switched from being net-short to net-long. "All things considered, we only see a limited downside to nickel." LME copper for three months fell 0.2%?to $12.965 per ton. Zinc dropped 0.6% to $3.342, while lead remained unchanged at $1.955. Tin gained 0.2%, to $49.300. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Gold prices rise, causing gold to fall by a weekly loss
Gold prices dropped more than 1% on Friday, and are expected to drop a similar amount each week as high oil prices continue to fuel inflation fears that could discourage central banks from reducing interest rates. At 1149 GMT spot gold was down by 1.1%, at $4,573.33 an ounce, and is on course for a loss of 2.8% per week. U.S. Gold Futures for June delivery dropped 1% to $4585.20. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that gold remains negatively correlated with oil in the short-term, because it impacts interest rate expectations. Iran warned on Thursday that it would respond to any new attacks by the United States with "long and painful" strikes on U.S. bases, while reiterating their claim over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices are now double what they were at the beginning of the year. This has raised concerns about a global slowdown, as well as higher inflation. U.S. Inflation accelerated in march as the war increased gasoline prices. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates at current levels well into next. Following similar decisions made this week by both the Fed and Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In a high-interest rate environment, gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical unrest and inflation, may lose its appeal in favor of yield-bearing investments like U.S. Treasuries. Staunovo, however, said UBS maintained a positive outlook for the next six to twelve months. He said that the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, as well as expectations of a weaker U.S. Dollar over time and falling real interest rates will likely "support" investment demand along with continued central bank demand. He said that these factors could push prices up to $5,900/oz in late 2026. Silver spot prices dropped 0.3%, to $73.53 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.5%, at $1,975.65, while palladium fell by 0.1%, to $1,522.18. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
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Russell: The UAE dumping OPEC will not have the same effect on crude oil as expected.
It is generally believed that the United Arab Emirates' decision to withdraw from OPEC will weaken the influence of the producer group, and lead to a race for increased production. This could ultimately result in a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has impacted the global crude oil markets in such a way that it is unlikely to produce the results expected. The UAE's decision to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may have weakened the group. There may also be more crude produced by the UAE once or if the pre-war shipping volume is resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. These two outcomes may not be the only ones, nor as certain as they seem. First, let's ask how much damage OPEC has suffered. It is a big blow to lose the fourth largest producer in the group. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, are two exporters that can ramp up production quickly. The 65-year old producer group has survived departures in the past and managed to remain relevant and influence the global crude oil supply and price. Angola left the UAE in 2024. Qatar? in 2020. Ecuador again in 2020. Indonesia in 2016. Gabon in 1995. Gabon rejoined later. One could argue that none of these nations were as important as the UAE. However, Angola and Qatar would still be considered major losses. It would take a brave analyst to believe that Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ members Russia are weakened by the loss of a producer who produced 12% of OPEC's production. It will be interesting to see how Saudi Arabia and Russia react and if they decide to engage in a price and volume war. This move is not intended to force the UAE into maintaining production discipline. This would be more aimed at driving high-cost producers out of the market. The primary target is U.S. Shale output. The irony of the situation is that while U.S. president Donald Trump welcomed the UAE's decision to leave OPEC the move could lead to a price and volume war. The energy companies will be the ones to suffer. The Republican Party and Trump may benefit politically from lower retail fuel prices, but this outcome shows that Trump is not as friendly to his country's energy sector as he claims. The impact may depend on the response to a re-opened strait The main question about the UAE's move is if it will lead to a price and volume war. Before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, which took place on February 28, the UAE shipped about 3.3 millions barrels of oil per day. This effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts estimate that the UAE's production could rise quickly to 4.5m bpd, and then?hit 5.0m bpd over the medium-term. This assumes, of course, that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully and sustainably opened at some point. However, this is not certain given the current conflict and the apparent lack of progress among the warring parties. Even if the flow of crude oil returns to the pre-war levels, will the additional barrels supplied by the UAE be enough to cause a price correction? Importers' tactics and the actions of other exporters are equally important. Importers are attempting to replenish their depleted inventory as quickly as possible in anticipation of another Middle East war. Or, do they adopt a more measured approach, hoping for a moderated price? China, as the world's largest crude importer has historically built up stockpiles during low price periods and cut imports when prices reach levels that its refiners deem too high. China's massive stockpile of oil, estimated at 1.2 billion barrels, have not been used. The U.S. will likely see its crude oil exports fall once the Strait of Hormuz has been fully opened, but it is not certain how quickly inventories will be rebuilt. The question is also whether production can return to pre-war levels in the Middle East, considering that many fields were destroyed and facilities damaged by missiles and drones. The Iran conflict has created a lot of variables. This means that it is difficult to predict how the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC would affect the group or the overall supply-demand balance. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Chevron's upstream strength lifts first-quarter earnings past estimate
Chevron's first-quarter earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations on Friday as higher oil prices related to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran helped boost its results in its upstream business. LSEG data show that the company's adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, which is well above the consensus estimate. Despite the big beat, overall profits were at their lowest levels in five years. This was partly due to timing effects related to financial derivatives. Chevron’s largest business unit upstream generated $3.9 billion, an increase of 4% on the previous year, as oil prices rose. In a press release, CEO Mike Wirth stated that despite increased geopolitical instability and supply disruptions related to it, Chevron had delivered a solid first-quarter result, highlighting the resilience of its portfolio and the importance of disciplined execution. The conflict between Iran and the West, which began on 28 February, has caused significant disruptions to global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to shipping, causing a shortage of oil and a spike in prices of up to 50%. The net income for January-March was $2.2 billion. This is down from $3.5billion a year ago. Chevron is still only a small part of the Middle East's turmoil, with less than 5%. Results of the Downstream are in Red Downstream operations, on the other hand, saw a swing to a loss, falling from $325 million in profit last year, to $817 million this year. This decline was due primarily to "accounting mismatches" from derivative-related time effects. These are expected to reverse in the next quarter. Exxon, a larger rival, also reported a similar loss?from timing effect. Eimear Bonner, chief financial officer at Chevron, said in an interview that the company expects to close paper positions of?about $1billion and make a profit in the second-quarter. She said that excluding the timing effects of a volatile market, Chevron’s business was solid. We can see our cash flow increasing, we can also see our earnings growing and all of our plans are on schedule. The company stated that it may see further timing effects in the event of a continued rise in oil prices and a "unwinding" effect when prices drop. LIMITED MIDDLE-EAST EXPOSURE Chevron's Middle East production is lower than its peers. The company reported that production in the U.S. was robust and exceeded 2 million barrels per a day for the third consecutive quarterly. The first-quarter volumes decreased slightly to 3,86 million barrels per day of oil equivalent compared to the previous three month due to downtime in the Tengiz?field, Kazakhstan following a fire. The free cash flow was also down to $1.5 billion, due to lower operating cash flows. The metric was down on a?adjusted basis, excluding the impact of?working capital. Bonner reiterated the company's goal of achieving a 10% annual increase in adjusted free cash flows through 2030. Chevron paid $3.5 billion as dividends during the quarter and purchased $2.5 billion of shares. The company's buyback was less than in the previous quarter. However,?Bonner stated that the company still targets a full-year purchase between $10 billion to $20 billion. Biraj Borkhataria is an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. He wrote in a note that Chevron had strong results, but some investors might be disappointed with the lack of increase in buybacks. He also said that a stronger cash flow this year would likely help boost repurchases in the second quarter. The company reported that its capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2026 were higher than the previous year. This was partly due to the investments made in connection with the Hess acquisition. However, this was offset by lower spending in the Permian basin. Chevron's shares rose less than 1% before the market opened. Sheila Dang reported from Houston, and Nathan Crooks edited the story with Sherry Jacob Phillips and Chizu nomiyama.
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Exxon exceeds earnings estimates for the first quarter despite Iran conflict
Exxon Mobil beat expectations for the first-quarter adjusted earnings, but unadjusted profits?dropped below their previous level of five years because of disrupted shipments due to the Iran War and paper losses?from hedging activities. LSEG's consensus estimate of $1.00 per share was surpassed by adjusted earnings of $1.16 for the first three -months. The adjusted figure excludes a $700-million loss due to the disruption of the energy market caused by the Middle Eastern conflict, which began at the beginning of February. Earnings per share were also $2.09, excluding the negative impact of financial derivatives which have a short-term impact. The first-quarter net income was $4.2 billion. This is down from $7.7 in the same quarter in 2025 and the lowest since the first of 2021. Higher Oil Prices Benefits Higher oil prices and increased output from the Permian basin and Guyana helped offset production disruptions from the Middle East. Exxon CEO Darren Woods said in a statement that the company is stronger today than it was a couple of years ago. However, "events" in the Middle East have tested this strength. Oil prices have risen to over $100 per barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East, but it has had a mixed effect on the profits of oil majors. Exxon disclosed a multibillion-dollar loss from timing effects, which it expects will be reversed in future quarters. In contrast, British oil giant BP reported this week 'higher profits' driven by oil trading. Exxon uses derivatives to reduce the risk of price fluctuations during the time required to deliver cargoes to customers. The company stated that the value of the shipment is not reflected until after the transaction has been completed, causing a timing effect. In an interview, Exxon's Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen stated that it usually takes a few weeks for the timing effects to dissipate. However, he also said it was difficult to predict future timing effects as they will depend on commodity prices. The earnings from upstream including identified items were $5.7 billion. This is up 63% on the previous quarter, but down 15% on last year. The downstream results were a loss $1.3 billion, compared to a profit $827 million the previous year. Exxon reported $2.8 billion in downstream profits, excluding all timing effects. HIGH EXPOSURE MIDDLE EAST Hansen stated that the business was resilient, and that, after excluding timing impacts and undeliverable cargoes, the net income increased compared to last year. Exxon has the highest level of exposure to the Middle East among its competitors, with 20% of their oil and gas production located there. Chevron is the No. Chevron, the No. Exxon has said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the second quarter it will reduce Middle East production by 750,000 barrels a day compared to the previous year. Exxon reported in a filing to the regulatory authorities earlier this month that disruptions due to war had lowered production during the first quarter by 6%. Exxon executives are likely to be asked about the timeline of repairing the damaged assets in the Middle East during a conference call later that day. This is also a significant portion of Exxon’s portfolio for liquefied gas. The oil company has stakes in two liquefied gas plants?in Qatar which were damaged by Iranian attacks. Exxon’s most significant upstream assets include the Permian basin and offshore production in Guyana. Hansen said that Guyana's production reached a record and the company continues to grow in Permian. Exxon’s free cash flow decreased to $2.7 billion from $8.8 in the previous quarter. The company paid out $4.3 billion as dividends, and purchased $4.9 billion of shares in the first quarter. Cash capital expenditures reached $6.2 billion in line with the company’s guidance for the full year. Sheila Dang reported from Houston, and Nathan Crooks edited the story with Muralikumar Anantharaman, Barbara Lewis and Barbara Lewis.
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HF Sinclair reports surprise quarterly profit due to higher refining rates
HF Sinclair announced a surprising first-quarter 'adjusted' profit on Friday. This was aided by increased refining % margins and higher refined product sales. The U.S. refineries are reaping the highest margins they have seen in years as the 'disruptions' to Middle Eastern oil flow due to the Iran War has increased demand for U.S. exports of fuel. The effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran -- a crucial chokepoint where a fifth of all global oil and gas shipments pass -- has stoked fears about supply, sent crude futures prices higher and triggered a spike in volatility across energy markets. U.S. refiners are less dependent on Middle Eastern oil and can benefit from global fuel shortages by increasing international sales through the U.S. Gulf Coast Hub. Franklin Myers, CEO of Franklin Myers Inc. said that the company would continue to focus on "executing our strategic priorities" and believes each of its business segments are well-positioned to benefit from the macroeconomic environment. U.S. refinery profit margins measured by the 3-2-1 Crack Spread In the first quarter, grew by an average of 73% from a year ago. The adjusted refinery gross margin per barrel of the company was $9.95, up from $9.12 a year ago. The refiner’s refining division reported a core quarterly profit of $55million, compared to a loss?of $8million from a year ago. HF Sinclair’s renewables segment posted an adjusted core loss of $17million last year, compared to a profit of $133million this year. The adjusted core profit in the lubricants & specialties segment rose from $85 to $103 millions. According to LSEG, the Dallas-based company posted an adjusted profit per share of 69 cents for 'the three months ending March 31. This compares with analysts' estimates of a loss per share of 6 cents. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pooja menon; editing by Maju Sam)
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Exxon exceeds earnings estimates for the first quarter despite Iran conflict
Exxon Mobil beat expectations for the first quarter adjusted earnings on a Friday. However, unadjusted 'profit' dropped to its lowest in five years because of disrupted shipments due to the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran. Also, a negative impact was caused by?timing issues related to financial derivatives. The adjusted earnings for the first 'three months' of the year came in at $1.16, which was above the consensus estimate by LSEG of $1.00. The adjusted figure excludes a $700m loss due to cargoes which were not delivered because of the war. Earnings per share were $2.09, excluding financial derivatives. Net income was $4.2 billion for the first three months of the year, down from $7.7 million in the same quarter in 2025. It is the lowest it has been since the first quarter in 2021. U.S. Oil Producer Benefitted from Higher Oil Prices?and Increased Production from its Primary Assets in Permian basin and Guyana which helped offset production interruptions in the Middle East. Exxon CEO, Darren Woods, said in a statement that the company is stronger today than it was just a few short years ago. However, "events" in the Middle East have tested this strength, and the safety of the people remains our number one priority. Oil prices have risen since the middle of February due to the conflict in the Middle East, but profits for oil companies are uneven. Exxon disclosed a multibillion-dollar loss from?timing impacts that it expects will unwind in future quarters. In contrast, British oil major BP reported this week higher profits 'driven by its oil-trading operations. Exxon uses financial derivatives to reduce the risk of price fluctuations during the delivery time to customers. The company stated that the value of the shipment is not reflected until the transaction has been completed, creating a time impact. In an interview, Exxon's Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen stated that it usually takes a few weeks for the timing effects to dissipate. However, he also said it was difficult to predict future potential timing effects, as it depends on the changes in commodity prices. MIDDLE EST IMPACT Hansen stated that the underlying business was resilient, and that, after excluding all timing effects and undelivered goods, net income increased compared to last year. Exxon has a Middle East production of 20%, which is among the highest rates compared to its competitors, including Chevron. The No. 2 U.S. producer of oil, Chevron, said Friday that less than 5 percent of its production is sourced from the Middle East. Exxon stated in a filing to the regulatory authorities earlier this month that disruptions?due the war' lowered the first-quarter production compared to the previous three months by 6%. Exxon executives will likely be asked about the timeline of repairing the damaged assets in the Middle East during a conference call later that day. This region also represents a significant portion of Exxon’s portfolio for liquefied gas. The oil company has stakes in the two liquefied gas facilities in Qatar, which were damaged by Iranian attacks. Exxon’s biggest upstream assets are the Permian basin and offshore production from?Guyana. Hansen stated that Guyana production had reached a record and the company was continuing to grow within the Permian. Exxon’s free cash flow decreased to $2.7 billion from $8.8 in the previous quarter. The company paid out $4.3 billion as dividends, and purchased $4.9 billion of shares in the first quarter. Cash capital expenditures reached $6.2 billion in line with the company’s guidance for full-year. Sheila Dang reported from Houston, and Nathan Crooks edited the story.
Gold prices rise, causing gold to fall by a weekly loss
Gold prices dropped more than 1% last Friday and are expected to drop by a similar amount this week, as rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation fears that will discourage central banks from reducing interest rates.
At 0952 GMT spot gold was down by 1.1%, at $4,568.82 an ounce. This is on course for a loss of 1.2% per week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell by 1.1% to $4579.70.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that gold is negatively correlated with oil in the near term as it impacts interest rate expectations. Iran warned on Thursday that it would retaliate if Washington re-attacked its positions with "long and painful" strikes, reinforcing its claim over the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude prices are now double what they were at the beginning of the year. This has sparked concerns about a global slowdown, and a rise in inflation due to the surge in fuel prices. U.S. gasoline prices rose in March, causing inflation to accelerate. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates at current levels well into the next year. Following similar decisions by the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank this week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Friday.
In a high interest rate environment, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical unrest, may lose its appeal in favor of yield-bearing investments like U.S. Treasuries.
Staunovo, however, said UBS maintained a positive outlook for?the next six to twelve months. "Uncertainty around upcoming midterm (U.S. ) elections, expectations of a weakened U.S. Dollar over time, and falling real interest rates (as Fed cuts) will likely support investment demand along with?continued demand from central banks."
He said that these factors could push prices up to $5,900/oz in late 2026.
Silver spot prices dropped 0.6%, to $73.27 an ounce. Platinum was down 1.3%, at $1960.30. Palladium fell 0.6%, to $1515.37. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
(source: Reuters)