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Stocks return to record highs on Middle East peace hopes
The world stock market rose for the 10th consecutive day on Thursday to reach?new records highs. This marked the end of a six-week journey that began with the massive selloffs caused by Israel and the United States' attacks on Iran. The optimism over a possible 'deal to end war' continues to grow. MSCI 47-country world stock index rose 0.25%, with oil at $95 a barrel now far below the $120 highs of March. Wall Street hoped to see more gains in the future. The S&P 500 reached a new high on Wednesday after rising tech stocks and positive global bank earnings lifted it above 7,000. Manpreet Gil, Chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East, and Europe at Standard Chartered, said: "It looks almost like a perfect V-shaped rebound." He added that the U.S. tech stock market and the falling oil prices were the main drivers of the rebound. European stocks are still not back at their pre-war levels, but they have moved up 0.2% as bond traders continue to reduce bets on sharp interest rate hikes by the top central banks in the region. When the European Central Bank met last month, there were growing fears about a surge in European and worldwide inflation due to energy. Gill stated that rate-makers are more likely to try and "look past" this move if energy prices do now drop, and if inflation is only a temporary one off. He said: "I think everyone is going to be quite careful about whether we can see any second-round impacts that come later." OIL ON BOIL Brent crude oil prices remained volatile at a little above $95 per barrel, after a Tehran-briefed source said that Iran might consider allowing ships sailing freely on the Omani side of Strait of Hormuz to avoid attack in its negotiations with the United States. After eight days of consecutive declines, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, gained around 0.15%. In addition to war-watching, U.S. president Donald Trump has reignited the spat with Fed chair Jerome Powell. He threatened to remove him from his seat as a single member of?the U.S. Central Bank's Board of Governors, unless Powell vacates his seat when his term ends on May 15th. The dollar's movement also caused the euro to lose traction at just below $1.18, after having edged up to within touching distance from its highest level since World War I began. After meeting with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent, Japan's Finance Minister said that Tokyo and the U.S. agreed to intensify their communication?on the exchange rate after her Wednesday meeting. Khoon 'Goh, head of Asia Research at ANZ said: "As the markets price out the war premium we could see further pressure on the dollar and a resumption of the downward trend that has been established basically since last year." AUSSIE DOLLAR AND GOLD GAIN Chinese stocks rose over 1% in the first quarter, and the yuan was nearing a three-year-high of 6.8152 to the dollar on the offshore markets. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.4%, setting a new record. Taiwan and Korea were not far behind, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a pillar of the AI industry, posted a 58% increase in profits. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report that they "remain constructive" about emerging market stocks, as the "underlying profit growth will likely be strong". The Australian dollar reached a record high of four years after the release of employment data. Bitcoin and ether, on the other hand, remained at just below $74,700 each and $2,340 in the cryptomarkets.
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Enel assets in Brazil worth $4 billion, according to auditors
Auditors in the annual report of Italian utility Enel said that it has assets valued at about 3,34 billion euros ($3.9billion) and goodwill worth 595 million euro tied to a Brazilian power concession which it could lose. Brazil's Aneel power regulator decided earlier this month to proceed with a forfeiture procedure that could lead to the termination of a power distribution concession held a local Enel unit in?Sao Paulo. This would prevent the automatic renewal contract which expires 2028. Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira urged Aneel in December to begin Enel's termination procedure after power outages affected more than 2 million customers in the Sao Paulo metro area due to extreme weather events. KPMG stated that the recoveryability of Enel’s assets and goodwill relating to the concession in Sao Paulo, and its possible renewal had been an important matter in auditing Enel’s accounts. They added that the 2025 financial statements gave a “true and honest view” of the group’s financial situation. The auditor stated that although Enel’s management had conducted an impairment assessment of the Sao Paulo operation to?determine a recoverable amount under different future scenarios?, the estimates were subjective and included some uncertainty. Enel will have another chance to present its case before the federal government and regulator decide whether or not the concession is granted. Aneel's head recently stated that the Sao Paolo unit could be sold to another firm if a loss is anticipated. Enel reaffirmed its interest in this concession in its February presentation of its long-term strategies, and pledged to strengthen its commitment to Brazil on a long-term basis.
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Aluminium reaches four-year high amid Middle East supply concerns
Aluminum prices reached a four-year-high?on Friday as traders assessed?the extent of damage to the global supply caused by the U.S./Israeli war with Iran. Meanwhile, hopes for a possible peace agreement boosted other base metals. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.4% to $3.636 per metric ton during official open-outcry trade after reaching $3.672, its highest since March 24, 2020. The record high was $4,073.5 on March 7, 2022 when the markets were dealing with 'the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion in Ukraine. Global aluminium is experiencing a'supply shortage this year as a result of the Iran War. One Gulf producer said in early April that it could take up to one year to fully restore production at its UAE smelters which were hit by an Iranian strike in late March. The LME index of six base metal contracts closed on Wednesday at a record high amid strong prices across the complex. Copper and tin also reached their highest levels in early March. Metals have done well in April so far, thanks to the hopes for a Gulf settlement, production uncertainty, and stress. Alastair Muiro, senior metals strategist, Marex, said that recent gains were due to investment from the financial system. The LME cash contract is trading at a premium to the benchmark three-month price, despite?elevated LME prices. . The same spread?for other metals comes at a discounted price. LME copper fell by 0.1% to $13,235 per ton, while zinc rose 0.8% at $3,424, and lead dropped 0.8% at $1,950. Tin gained?0.6%, to $49900, and nickel increased 0.7% to $18,260. In the morning session, lead reached its highest since March 3 and nickel reached its second consecutive near-three-month high. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Polina Devtt)
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Hegseth: US forces are ready to resume combat if Iran does not agree on a deal
?U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a Pentagon press briefing that forces in the Middle East were 'postured' to re-start combat operations if Iran refused to agree to a peaceful deal. He said, "You Iran can choose a prosperous, golden future. We hope you will do this for the people of Iran." "But if Iran chooses badly, they will face a blockade, and bombs being dropped on their infrastructure, power, and energy." U.S. forces have imposed a blockade against all ships attempting to enter or exit Iran as part of a campaign to press Tehran into a deal. "We will actively pursue any Iranian flagged ship or any vessel that is attempting to provide material?support?to Iran," stated General Dan Caine. He is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Ships that try to breach the blockade will be intercepted, and they'll be warned "if you don't comply with this blockade we will use force". He told the briefing that enforcement would take place in 'Iran's territorial waters and international waters.
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Gold prices rise as Middle East optimism eases inflation fears
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as a growing 'optimism' about the end of 'conflicts? in the Middle East eased inflation concerns and improved prospects for lowering interest rates. Gold prices rose 0.6% at $4,819.66 an ounce as of 1207 GMT after reaching a month-high in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 0.4%, to $4841.70. This need for liquidity has largely run its course. Shah said that he expects the gold price to remain well supported, as long as there are concerns about central bank independence and devaluation risk. On Thursday, optimism grew that the Middle East war may be close to an end. A key Pakistani facilitator in Tehran and Donald Trump's administration both expressed hope for a deal which would open the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices rose by more than 1% Thursday but remain well below $100 per barrel. "Gold continues to be supported amid renewed optimism about de-escalation. Oil prices are falling, which is helping to ease inflation fears that were weighing on the prices in earlier conflict. Analysts at ING said that the move reflects a broader change in market focus. In Asian trading, global equities soared past their previous all-time peaks as optimism grew around a Middle East?peace?deal. Gold prices fell to $4,097.99 per ounce as a result of high inflation fears due to the soaring price of energy on March 23, as expectations grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve would adopt a more hawkish stance on interest rates, which would weigh on demand for the non-yielding material. Investors now expect at least one U.S. rate cut by 2026, up from just 32% the day before, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Silver rose 0.7% per ounce to $79.59, platinum increased 1.5% to 2,141.45, and palladium increased 0.8% to $1,586.05. (Reporting and editing by Tasimzahid and Jonathan Ananda; Bengaluru, Ishaan Verma and Swati verma.)
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Hungary's carbon tax violates EU rules, top court says
The European Union’s top court ruled on Thursday that Hungary’s tax on CO2 emissions allowances, which will be introduced in 2023 is illegal under EU law because it removes operators’?incentives to invest? in reducing emissions. The tax was imposed by Hungary's departing government, headed by Viktor Orban, whose party lost the Sunday parliamentary elections. The tax is 36 euros (42 dollars) per ton annual emissions produced by the company. The European Court of Justice referred the case to the Veszprem 'High Court of Hungary - who had originally referred it to ECJ. The ECJ ruled that "the Hungarian tax on carbon dioxide?emission allowances seems to be in violation of EU law. It is up to the national court to confirm this." The ECJ, siding with the Hungarian fertilizer maker Nitrogenmuvek said that Budapest's scheme is against the EU's 2003 emission trading directive which is intended to reduce greenhouse gas 'emissions' across the EU. The report warned that taxing free emission permits would strip them of "much" of their value, and take away the incentives meant to encourage companies to reduce their emissions. Orban's government disregarded ECJ rulings in the?past on other issues and the Hungarian Constitutional Court?rejected a complaint against the decree 2024. The TISZA Party of Peter Magyar has not yet commented. He has promised far-reaching reforms and hopes to have his cabinet sworn in before mid-May. $1 = 0.8488 Euros (Reporting and Editing by PhilippaFletcher; Anita Komuves, GianlucaLoNostro)
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Gold prices rise as Middle East optimism eases inflation fears
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as a growing 'optimism' about the possible resolution of?conflicts? in the Middle East eased inflation concerns and improved prospects for lowering interest rates. Gold spot rose by 0.5%, to $4,815.15 an ounce, at 0926 GMT. It had previously reached a month-high in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 0.3%, to $4.836.50. This need for liquidity has largely run its course. Shah said that he expected the gold price to remain well supported, as long as there are still concerns about central bank independence. On Thursday, optimism grew that the Middle East war may be close to an end. A key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the Trump administration hoped for a deal which would open up the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices rose by more than 1% Thursday but remain well below $100 per barrel. "Gold continues to be supported amid renewed optimism about de-escalation. Oil prices are falling, which is helping to ease inflation concerns that were affecting prices in the early stages of the conflict. Analysts at ING said that the move reflects a broader change in market focus. In Asian trading, global equities soared past their previous all-time records as optimism about a possible deal to end the Iran War grew. Gold prices fell as low as $4.097.99 per ounce on 23 March as inflation fears due to high energy prices fueled expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve approach to interest rates. This weighed on demand for the non-yielding material. CME's FedWatch Tool shows that investors see an increased chance of at least one U.S. rate cut in 2026, from just 32% the day before. Silver spot rose 1.4%, to $80.12 an ounce. Platinum gained 1%, to $2,130.25. Palladium increased 0.9%, to $1,587.25. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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Kremlin: Top officials offer Putin ideas to revive economy after recession
The Kremlin announced on Thursday that President Vladimir Putin had scolded the top Russian economic officials for a decline in the economy during the first two month of the year. Since 2023 the Russian war economy has been outperforming the G7 average, even though it slowed last year. Putin announced on Wednesday that Russia's economy contracted between January and February. Putin said the economic trajectory was below expectations at the beginning of a Kremlin meeting with Russia's top economic officials on Wednesday. He asked the officials to provide him with detailed options for how to rectify the situation. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said that the closed part of Wednesday's meetings lasted several hours behind closed door and there was a?free exchange of ideas. Peskov said to reporters that "the members of?the?government's economic block have many proposals for activating the economy and giving?it more momentum." He declined to give any details about the plans for the economy which has benefited from the soaring oil and gas prices triggered by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Reporting by Dmitry Antonov; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge, Editing by Andrew Osborn
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Six-week roundtrip
What's important in U.S. markets and the global market today by Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets. After six weeks of war, stocks around the world are back to record levels. New U.S. and Iran?peace negotiations could be in the works as Trump's administration raises hopes of a deal, while a Pakistani mediator arrives at Tehran. Investors feel that they can now switch back to the?market fundamentals. Investors were largely impressed by the first-quarter results of U.S. big banks earlier this week. Now it's time for tech, as Taiwan's chip maker TSMC has released another impressive beat.
Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most recent column about why geopolitics is getting more complicated and how that's affecting stock rebound rates. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where I talk about China's GDP and other topics. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. Don't forget April 23, when I will be hosting a webinar with my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever on how to rethink "safe-haven" assets in uncertain times. Register here.
SIX-WEEK RUNDTRIP Global stock prices are rising as investors focus on the impact of the Iran War on the tech sector, and the global economy in general. MSCI's "all-country" index reached a new record on Thursday. The Nikkei also hit a record, closing with a 2.5% gain. South Korea's KOSPI rose by over 2%. The new highs of the major U.S. indices were aided by strong earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday. Over 80% have exceeded analysts' expectations. The possibility of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon was another cause for optimism. President Trump said that the leaders from both countries will speak on Thursday. According to a Tehran-briefed source, Iran is also said to be considering allowing ships to sail through the Omani shore of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of a proposal to the U.S. The oil prices are once again following the more positive reports and remain below the crucial $100 per barrel level. Brent crude and WTI crude both rose over 1% to around $96/bbl on Thursday. The dollar, on the other hand, continued to trade near its six-week lows and extended losses against major currencies for an eighth consecutive session. The dollar has now lost most of the gains it made as a safe haven since the Iran War began. China's first-quarter growth was 5.0%, exceeding economists' expectations of 4.8%. This is despite a slowdown of retail sales and industrial output in March. In the United States, President Trump has renewed his attacks against outgoing Fed chair Jerome Powell. He once again threatened to fire him, if he didn't leave his Fed board seat after his term ends next month. Next week, Congressional hearings will begin for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.
Chart of the Day China's economy picked-up speed in early 2026. It was riding an export surge, before the Iran War sent energy prices soaring. This put global demand at risk - which is vital for Beijing's ambitions to grow.
China's 5.0% growth rate in the first quarter was higher than expected and is above the 4.5%-5.0% target for the full year. This shows China has a high level of resilience, which sets it apart from other countries in Asia.
Watch today's events
* U.S. weekly jobless claims (8.30 a.m. ET), March industrial output (9.15 a.m. ET)
* U.S. corporate ?earnings: BNY, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo
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(source: Reuters)