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Imports of Brazilian fuel oil from Southeast Asia are robust, easing supply concerns fueled by war.
Shipping data reveals that Brazilian fuel oil imports to Southeast Asia jumped by a whopping 80% in March. This eases concerns about a tight marine 'fuel supply in this month, after the U.S. and Israel 'war with Iran crimped shipments. Data from Kpler & Vortexa shows that Southeast Asia's fuel imports from Brazil increased by more than two-fold in February compared with the previous month. Most of these fuels are headed to Singapore and Malaysia, which is the top ship refuelling centre for Southeast Asia. Kpler data shows that the volume has reached an all-time record of about 1 million metric tonnes (about 205,000 barges per day). Vortexa says it is the highest for a whole year, at around 800,000 tones. Analysts and traders say that the widening price gap between East and west is driving South American fuel oil to Asia. LSEG data show that the East-West VLSFO Swap - the price differential for Asia versus the supply from the United States or Europe - widened on March 31 to a new record of over $160 a tonne, which is more than 170% higher than the end-of-February. "Favourable East-West VLSFO Arbitrage economics along with strong refinery run in the 'Atlantic Basin could continue to push fuel oil towards Asia", said Xavier Tang senior market analyst at Vortexa. ROBUST BRAZILIAN SUPPLY CAPS PREMIUMS After the U.S. - Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to traffic. This is a crucial route that handles around 5% of global energy shipments every day. The cost of refuelling all marine fuels, including VLSFO (high-sulfur fuel oil), HSFO (high-sulfur fuel oil) and marine gasoil has increased. Singapore, Asia's main oil trading hub, has seen spot fuel oil premiums and marine fuels capped by the Brazilian fuel oil inflow, which is mainly very low-sulphur fuel used for bunkering. Spot Premiums for VLSFO LSEG data shows that the price of a ton of coal dropped to around $50 on Tuesday after reaching a'record high' of $140 in March?18. Prior to the start up to war, premiums were only a few tenths. Vortexa's Tang stated that the region's VLSFO exports in March were relatively flat compared to last month despite a heavy influx of Brazilian products. Tang stated that "supplies from Kuwait's al-Zour refining plant have dropped significantly, as the 'Strait of Hormuz' remains largely closed, and Dangote’s RFCC unit (residue liquid catalytic cracked) is operating at full capacity, reducing straight-run low-sulphur inflows to 'Singapore' in March." The spot premiums in Singapore for 'bunker fuel' have fallen to pre-war levels due to increased supply from Brazil, Russia and other countries. However, traders say the outlook remains tight because of a lack of heavy crude oil used to produce HSFO as well as gasoil blending stock that is used to make VLSFO. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Kevin Buckland and Jeslyn Lerh)
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Topps Tiles will close 23 UK stores due to low demand
Topps Tiles, a British tile retailer, announced on Wednesday it would close 23 underperforming stores as part of cost-savings measures. The goal is to boost medium-term profits amid a weakening demand. Topps Tiles, for example, has seen their sales volume and revenue grow as a result of a slowdown in home improvement and DIY. The UK's largest tiling retailer reported a 0.1% drop in revenue for the first half of this year, to?142.7million pounds ($189.31million). The company's?initiatives will?have an impact on revenue but it is focusing on measures that support profitability. Alex Jensen, Chief Executive Officer of the company, said that the team was implementing a?programme of targeted self-help initiatives geared towards the second half of the year. The group, which has approximately 300 stores in the UK, said that its tile retailer CTD is on track to return to profitability?in this current financial year.
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Poland's Orlen signss preliminary agreement on the acquisition of GA Polyolefins
Orlen, the Polish state-owned refiner, announced on Wednesday that it had signed a preliminary agreement with Grupa Azoty (the Polish state-controlled chemical group) under which it would acquire 'all remaining shares in Grupa azoty polyolefins. The transaction involves the purchase of GAP shares and the provision of financing by Orlen to complete GAP’s restructuring. It has a value of $1.35 billion ($364.23 millions). The transaction was in line with expectations. Orlen had been viewed as the "natural candidate" to take over the Polyolefins Project and stabilize it. Erste Group analyst Cezary Bernatek wrote in a client note. He added, "We'd expect an initial neutral?market response...Overall the deal should be viewed as a risk-clean-up rather than a new growth catalyst." Orlen holds 17.3% of GAP currently, but this will increase to 100% after the completion of the deal. Marcin Celejewski, CEO of Grupa Azoty said that the resolution of the project "Polimery Police", is a turning-point for the company and solves the "first of the biggest investment and financial issues". He added that "this transaction is a catalyst for implementing our new strategy - focusing on the fertilizer foundation, and maximising synergies in the group." Orlen stated in a statement that the completion of the deal is scheduled for "the third quarter". In connection with the transaction, Orlen will act as a guarantor for the settlement of claims between the GAP, Hyundai Engineering and each other in relation to the implementation of the flagship project.
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Australian shares reach 3-week highs, and gold stocks rise on hopes of a resolution to the Iran conflict
Australian shares closed at a three-week-high on Wednesday, with gains led by gold miners. Prices of bullion were buoyed by optimism about a possible deescalation in conflict over Iran. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 2.2% higher at 8,671.80, its highest level since March 11, The ASX 200 index had fallen 7.8% in march, its steepest monthly drop since June 2022. After reports that?saidU.S. Donald Trump said he was willing to stop the military campaign against Iran, even if the 'Strait of Hormuz' was largely closed. Gold prices rose, which gave Australian gold miners an extra push. The yellow metal?reached its highest level since the 20th of March earlier in that session. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold stocks were 'rallying' on the prospect of further gains in the price of the precious metal. If there is a de-escalation of the conflict or a resolution, this could bring down the oil price and USD, which would be good for gold. After losing 23.9% of its value in March, the local gold sub index jumped 7.3% to its highest level for nearly three weeks. The top players, Northern Star Resources (up 8.6%) and Evolution Mining (up?8.2%), both added to their respective totals. The mining sub-index grew by as much as 5.2 percent, the most in nearly a year. Rio Tinto, BHP and other sector heavyweights have both increased by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively. Both miners are at their highest level since early March. The big four banks all rose between 1.1% to 2.5%, a gain of 1.8%. This is the best intraday performance since February 12. Oil prices recovered overnight losses and gained some ground early in the morning, causing energy stocks to lose as much as 2.5%. Over the Tasman sea, the New Zealand benchmark S&P/NZX50 index dropped 0.7% to 12,825.87.
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MORNING BID EUROPE-April fools rush in
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Stocks and bonds are gaining momentum as investors hope for a de-escalation of the 'Iran War. But, if we pay attention to the date today, will the market fool itself again? Stocks are soaring after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States could halt its military strikes on Iran in two to three weeks, and that Tehran was not required to reach a settlement as a condition for the conflict to end. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan soared by 4.3% to snap a four-day loss streak. The benchmark is now on track to achieve its best single-day return since the post-Liberation Day recovery on April 10. South Korea's Kospi index is the leader, surging up to 7.7% after?Korean Exports surged in March, slamming expectations. Separate PMI data showed that the country's factory activities expanded at its fastest pace in more than four year in March. This was largely due to semiconductor demand and the launch of new products. Japan and Taiwan, two other export-oriented markets within the tech supply chain, are also not far behind. The data showed that the sentiment of Japanese companies heated up in March. The rally has ignored a Wall Street Journal report that suggested the UAE could enter the conflict. It is also lobbying the UN Security Council to authorize it to participate in military action in order to force open Strait of Hormuz. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, said that Washington would have to reexamine their relationship with NATO once the war is over. Trump will give an update about Iran in his address to the nation on Wednesday at 9 pm. S&P 500 futures have risen 0.2% on Wednesday. Wall Street stocks surged on Tuesday as traders bet on a possible exit from the war. Oil markets, however, were subdued, as trading resumed in Asia. Brent crude futures rose 1.2%, reversing the day's losses. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures up 1.8%. German DAX futures grew 1.8% and FTSE Futures grew 0.9%. Greece, meanwhile, will join MSCI's developed market index in May of next year. This marks a significant milestone for the country 13 years after being kicked out. The following are key developments that could impact the markets on Wednesday. Economic events: France: HCOB Manufacturing PMI in March Germany: HCOB - Manufacturing PMI for March United Kingdom: S&P Global Manufacturing Manufacturing PMI and BBA mortgage rate for March Euro zone: HCOB Manufacturing Final HCOB PMI for March and unemployment rate for February US: Retail sales in February, ISM manufacturing PMI in March, EIA weekly inventories Debt auctions: Germany: 7-year government debt
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Markets jittery as oil prices rise over 1% amid Mideast unrest
Brent futures extended gains following a'record monthly % increase in March. Middle East volatility continued to keep markets jittery, despite reports suggesting that the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran could be coming to an end. Brent front-month contract for June rose $1.40 or 1.4% to $105.37 a barrel at 0430 GMT. Brent logged a monthly gain record of 64% in march, according to LSEG's data dating back to June 1998. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), crude futures for the month of May increased by $1.59 or 1.6% to $102.97 per barrel. Brent futures for June delivery recovered some of the losses they suffered on Tuesday when media reports unconfirmed that Iran's President was willing to end the conflict led prices down by more than $3. Donald Trump told reporters that the U.S. military campaign could be ended within two or three weeks, and that Iran did not need to make a deal in order to end the conflict. This was his most direct statement yet about wanting to wind down the month-long battle. Analysts say that even if the conflict ends, damage to infrastructure will likely keep supplies limited. According to Phillip Nova's senior market analyst, Priyanka Sahdeva, the oil price will depend on the speed at which supply chains can normalize. Even if the situation de-escalates, the flow will not resume immediately... shipping and insurance costs, tanker movements, it will take some time before things return to normal," Sachdeva stated, adding that actual damage to the oil infrastructure could only be assessed later. Trump said he would end the war first before reopening Strait of Hormuz. This is a major route that carries 20% of the world's oil and natural gas. "Even though diplomatic channels are still active, and the U.S. administration has made intermittent comments about a short end to the conflict, it is unlikely that this will be the case. "Even though diplomatic channels are still active?and intermittent comments from the?U.S. A survey released on Tuesday showed that OPEC's oil production?dropped 7.3 millions barrels per day compared to the previous month. This shows the impact of the forced?export reductions due to the closure of?strait. The Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude output in January fell?by the most in two-years' time following a severe snowstorm which knocked out production in large parts of the country.
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South Korea and Indonesia sign agreements on minerals technology and finance during Prabowo's visit
The Blue House of the Seoul Presidency reported that South Korean President Lee Jae Myung held talks with Indonesian leader Prabowo?in Seoul on Wednesday?. They agreed to "expand their cooperation in critical minerals, technology, and clean energy". According to the schedule of the president, the leaders met following an official welcome at the Blue House. They then held a summit and witnessed the signing of several memoranda before lunch. As part of his visit to South Korea, the?Indonesian President is expected to also attend a business conference in Seoul on Wednesday evening. As the two countries transform their relationship into a strategic partnership, they also support projects in renewable energy. There were no agreements announced regarding defence cooperation, such as the joint project to develop South Korea’s KF-21 fighter aircraft. Last month, Korea Aerospace Industries said that it was in discussions with Indonesia about a possible sale of KF-21 jet fighters. However, no decision had been taken. Reports in the media said that Jakarta would consider buying an initial batch 16 aircraft. An official said that South Korea expects Indonesian to finish a payment for the joint development program by the end of this year. Blue House stated earlier that the two countries would also be expected to strengthen their cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, shipbuilding and nuclear power as well as new growth industries. It said that Lee will also award the highest South Korean civilian honour, Grand Order of Mugunghwa to Prabowo during his state visit. Reporting by Joyce Lee and Kyu-seok Kim, Editing by Ed Davies
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Rubio: Venezuela will need a transition phase and free elections
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that a transition period will be needed in Venezuela, and that the country will need free and fair elections. He also added that patience is required until this point. Rubio stated in an interview with Fox News Channel’s “Hannity” show that there would have to be some sort of transitional phase. "There must be fair and free elections in Venezuela." "And that point must come." "We must be patient but we can't become complacent." In a deadly raid that was ordered in January by President Donald Trump, the U.S. Military seized Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. The United Nations human rights office said that the 'raid' was in violation of international law. Trump had said at the time that Washington would "run" Venezuela. Delcy Rodrguez, Maduro’s former vice president, took over the government and is now governing Venezuela under U.S. supervision. Trump, following U.S. actions in Venezuela has spoken of acting against Cuba to pressurize its leadership. Rubio stated in an interview on Tuesday that Cuba needs economic and political reforms, and that Washington will soon have more information about that country. Rubio said: "I think Cuba needs two things, political reforms and economic reforms. You?cannot fix the economy of Cuba if you do not change their?government system." After toppling Maduro early in January, the U.S. cut Venezuela's oil imports to Cuba and Trump?threatened? to impose punishing tariffs against any other country which?sent crude? to Cuba. Cuba's energy crises has led to blackouts in the 10 million-person country. The crisis, according to health officials, has led to an increase in mortality rates for cancer patients and children. Human rights experts claim that Trump's emphasis on Venezuelan oil and threats against Cuba echo an imperialist attitude.
Mike Dolan: "Cash did well in March, whether it was dry powder or cash"
Who needs to "search for another safe place" if Warren Buffett doesn't mind Berkshire Hathaway piling up more cash?
Berkshire reported ending 2025 as having a massive $373 billion in cash. However, this cash pile appears to be largely intact and legendary chairman of the conglomerate claims that they have moved more money into the cash?pile during the past week.
Buffett said on CNBC that they had bought T-bills worth $17 billion this week. He added that, beyond the "one tiny purchase," there was not much else to buy and their cash position was "somewhere near $350 billion."
He dismissed the corrections with his characteristic bluntness, saying: "This is nothing."
Buffett has made it clear that Berkshire does not prefer to own cash-equivalents over good businesses. This means that the cash is an opportunistic investment, and not a defensive one.
Buffett is exceptional in many respects, but Berkshire’s enormous cash position speaks to a market dilemma - finding a safe haven amid the energy shock brought on by the Iran War.
Even though the Federal Reserve has said that it will not be reducing interest rates further, it is best to keep your cash on hand.
Gold has been a disappointment since the start of the war. It had one of its worst monthly performances since 2008, despite its stellar gains in the prior year. This has tarnished its reputation as a safe-haven asset that can benefit from wider turbulence.
Treasury bonds have been a poor portfolio insulator for the past few years. They failed to do this at any time during Donald Trump's turbulent second term.
Carlyle Research noted that during the three major stock market declines caused by geopolitical shocks in the last year - the Greenland dispute in January, and the Iran War last month – Treasury prices fell "in tandem" with stocks.
Jason Thomas, Carlyle's strategist, wrote: "It is no longer reasonable to believe that Treasury bonds would provide the offset deviations from stock prices that investors had come to expect over the previous decade."
Since 2022, the correlation between monthly returns on stocks and bonds is up from -25%.
LEAKY INSULATED
This might change if a recession or deep rate cuts were included, but neither are on the radar despite the twin blows to growth and inflation.
In March, manufacturing surveys showed that the AI boom and the global trade of AI-related hardware continued to grow despite the Middle East conflict.
The S&P 500's earnings growth for the full year has increased to 17% in the last month, despite a decline of more than 10% in 12-month price-earnings forward valuations.
Perhaps it is better to invest in commodities and other related stocks.
The trade tensions and political tensions of the last year have caused global supply chains to be squeezed and scarce resources, such as raw materials and inputs for armaments and rockets, become even more scarce.
The CRB core commodities index rose almost 20% in the last month, despite the rise in oil and gas prices.
Manish Kabra is a strategist at Societe Generale. He believes that these shocks, which are a recurring feature of the Trump presidency, are an excuse for building positions in the physical economies - grid, power, infrastructure, automation, and strategic resources.
He told clients that investors would be "best positioned" by investing in industrials, utilities and materials. The impact of oil shocks is usually determined by two factors: the duration and the Fed's reaction.
Spare a thought, however, for the humble dollar. It has recovered its composure after a non-show in last year's tariff ruckus.
Buffett is happy to?load up on T-bills with interest rates around 3.6%. Non-U.S. Investors are also able to enjoy higher returns: the dollar index has risen by nearly 3% against major currencies.
Cash is not king but it was able to perform a feat last month that neither gold nor bonds could. Cash would have at least taken the edge off of the 6-8% shaky S&P 500.
While everyone is still debating what historical market reference points they will use in this war, March's market movements have already been included as an example of how to proceed.
The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)