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Trump warns Iran that the US will keep blowing them off if they don't make a deal
On Thursday, President Donald Trump urged Iran to?make a deal that would end the?U.S. Israeli bombing or face a retaliatory?strike on their country. "They have the opportunity, Iran, to abandon permanently their nuclear ambitions, and to join a different path forward," Trump stated?during an Cabinet meeting at White House. "We'll?see if they want to. If they don’t, we're their worst nightmare. We'll keep blowing them away in the meantime. Trump's remarks came after a senior Iranian official told reporters on Thursday that Washington’s proposal to end nearly four weeks worth of fighting was "unfair and one-sided" but diplomacy continued. Trump claimed that Iranians were in talks with the U.S., and characterized them as 'desperate? to make a deal. Tehran denies these characterizations. He called Iranian officials "great negotiators", and said that he wanted to reach an agreement which would open the Strait of Hormuz, and end Tehran's military ambitions. Trump said that a deal may not come together. He said, "I don’t know if I'll be able do that," about the prospects of a deal. I don't think we would be willing to do it. (Reporting and writing by Steve Holland, Trevor Hunnicutt, editing by Scott Malone).
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Sources say that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium are close to a deal to resolve an asset dispute.
Three people familiar with the matter said that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), had reached an agreement which will prevent a looming arbitration over the seizure last year of the miner’s local unit. According to traders and officials, as part of a broader resolution, traders have explored bauxite deals that are linked to the assets seized, including structures where upfront payments on future shipments would be used to settle?EGA claims. The deal is still being finalised. It follows the government taking over Guinea Alumina Corporation, EGA's subsidiary for bauxite, in October, following a dispute about alumina refineries. It then transferred GAC’s assets to state-owned Nimba Mining, and discussed possible bauxite supply to EGA. DEAL CLOSE, TECHNICAL DEADLINES REMAIN Officials from the government confirmed that a deal was close, but several technical details were still unresolved. An expert in mining who is familiar with this?matter has said that the deal may still change, since EGA's priorities could be re-evaluated due to the conflict in the Middle East. EGA and Nimba declined to comment, while Guinea's Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Two traders reported that the offtake discussions were complex. They said traders were cautious to commit capital without complete visibility of supply chains and compliance standards. Sources requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussion. GUINEA WANTS UPFRONT PAID The takeover of Guinea, as part of the broader African governments' drive to earn more money from their mineral resources has disrupted supply chains for bauxite. A trading source stated that interest was focused on spot cargoes between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tonnes, with bids up to 600,000. The source stated that larger volumes up to 1.6 millions tons were discussed, but not secured. The source stated that "we need to see assets and make sure the material is traceable as well as?assurances about labour standards". The government's attempts to secure "upfront prepayments" to compensate EGA have complicated negotiations for a long term offtake contract. According to a trading source, traders are wary of this structure. This arrangement would require that a new buyer make a large payment, which would then be amortized over the course of future bauxite delivery. The two traders claimed that Nimba Mining had held discussions with several major trading companies. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Bernadette B. Baum and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila (Reporting)
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Sources say that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium are close to a deal to resolve an asset dispute.
Three people familiar with the matter said that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), have reached an agreement which 'will prevent a looming arbitral hearing' over last year's seizure by 'the miner's' local unit. According to traders and government officials, as part of a broader resolution, traders have explored bauxite deals that are linked to the assets seized, including structures whereby upfront prepayments for future shipments would help settle EGA claims. The deal is still being finalised. It follows the government taking over Guinea Alumina Corporation,?EGA's subsidiary for bauxite, in October, following a dispute about alumina refineries. The company then transferred GAC's asset to the state-owned Nimba Mining, and discussed potential bauxite supply to EGA. TECHNICAL DETAILS REMAIN AFTER DEAL CLOSE An official from the government confirmed that a deal was near but said several technical details were still unresolved. An expert in mining said that the deal could still be changed, because EGA's priorities might change due to the Middle East war. EGA, Nimba, and Guinea's Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Two traders reported that the offtake discussions were complex. They said traders were cautious to commit capital without complete visibility of supply chains and compliance standards. Sources requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions. GUINEA WANTS UPFRONT PAID The takeover of Guinea by the African governments, as part of their broader effort to earn more money from their mineral resources has disrupted bauxite supplies. A trading source stated that 'interest was focused on spot cargoes between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tonnes, with bids up to 600,000 tons. The source stated that larger volumes up to 1.6 millions tons were discussed, but not secured. The source stated that "we need to see the assets and ensure that the material is traceable as well as assurances about?labor standards". A trading source said that the government’s attempts to secure upfront payments to compensate EGA have complicated negotiations for a long term offtake contract. The arrangement would require that a new buyer make a bulk payment, which would then be amortized over the future deliveries of bauxite. The two traders claimed that Nimba Mining had held discussions with several major trading companies. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Bernadette B. Baum and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila (Reporting)
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Constellation's executive claims that grid operator told the company Three Mile Island cannot be connected until 2031
The U.S. grid operators PJM and Constellation Energy have told Constellation Energy the 'former Three -Mile Island nuclear /power?plant' in Pennsylvania will likely not be able connect to the grid before 2031. This is four years later than originally planned. Constellation is working to restart operations at its nuclear power plant, which will be renamed Crane Clean Energy Center to "feed Microsoft data centres". Constellation's chief?external and growth officer, David Dardis said that the company will be ready to produce electricity at the plant before its goal of 2027. It is also in talks with the grid operator PJM interconnection about reducing the timeline. Constellation, America's largest independent?power company, announced that in 2024 it had?contracted Microsoft to reopen a nuclear power plant. Three U.S. nuclear plants are in the process of restarting their reactors, as a result of a growing demand from Big Tech data centers,?electrification and transportation?, and other?data center-related projects. Reporting by Laila KEARNEY in Houston, editing by Lisa Shumaker
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Fuel prices spike in Chile: a political test for Kast
Chileans were apprehensive as they saw empty gas stations and price boards that still displayed pre-hike prices. The steep increase in fuel prices announced by the government went into effect on Thursday. This immediately tested the strong public support that had propelled the right-wing president?Jose Antonio Kast to office. The new administration inaugurated on March 11, activated a fuel stabilization clause to bring domestic rates in line with the surging international prices linked to the conflict in Middle East. Officials said that the government was under pressure to absorb the rapidly increasing cost shock. This is what led to the sudden adjustment at petrol pumps in the country. The central Santiago gas stations were deserted on Thursday morning, after the long queues of the previous night. Premium fuels had been sold out. "I came to purchase 'gold'," said driver Valentina Orega. She was referring to gasoline which is a commodity in high demand. "Honestly, this is terrible." "It's only been a few days, and he is already doing things that affect the middle class and the lower class. But nothing is known as to what he will do for the upper class," said she about?Kast. Diesel prices will increase by 60% and 93-octane gas by 30%. After the announcement on Monday, lines began to form and some stations were out of stock. Gas prices are always a source of concern for people in any country. It threatens his short-term popularity and can create?governance issues depending on the length of time prices are high, said Cate Klemme from Latin America advisory firm Southern Pulse. According to a survey conducted by Cadem, Kast's approval rating dropped four points from 59% to 47%. Meanwhile, 59% of respondents said the increase could have been avoided. For the first time ever, disapproval exceeded approval in a poll conducted by Cadem. 54% of respondents expect fuel prices to continue increasing. Francisca Alfaro said that she had already prepared for a rise in gas prices. "Everything will go up, because everything in Chile is transported via land." "Food, produce, and vegetables will all become more expensive," said she. Jorge Quiroz, the Finance Minister, said that future price changes would be gradual. JP?Morgan's analyst note says that the government has announced measures to ease the impact. These include freezing the public transport fares until?December. This will help?to offset part of the fuel price shock. According to the firm, a rise in gasoline and diesel prices could still lead to nonlinear inflation. The central bank of Chile?revised their inflation forecast one day earlier. They now predict that the country will experience a significant rise in prices during the second quarter, with figures reaching around 4% per year. Kast, Chile’s most right-leaning president since the return to democracy in Chile, blamed former leftist Gabriel Boric for strained finances. He said that he would lead an “emergency” government focused on recovery. Guillermo Holzmann?a political specialist at the University of Valparaiso?said Kast was "paying an important political-social price given the rejection of a measure of such nature. Yet, they hope to reap at the end of the crisis, a more favorable position in the eyes of their public." Analysts said that the hikes could fuel social unrest, and even protests by public transport operators. (Reporting and editing by Cassandra Garrison, Hugh Lawson, and Fabian Cambero)
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EU legislators advance US trade agreement with multiple safeguards
After months of uncertainty due to 'President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the 'new import levy', European Union lawmakers advanced legislation Thursday that would fulfill the bloc's part of the trade agreement it has with the United States. The EU assembly, by a vote of 417 to 154 with 71 abstentions in favor, voted for the legislation, but with additional safeguards. This reflects concerns that Washington might not adhere to the agreement reached in Turnberry, Scotland last July. These safeguards include, among other things, a possible suspension clause. Also, lawmakers insist that the U.S. remove the 50% duty imposed on products like wind turbines and motorbikes containing steel and aluminium a month following the Turnberry agreement. Maros Sefcovic, European Trade Commissioner, called the vote "a crucial step",? delivering certainty to EU businesses. The U.S. Mission in the EU welcomed the vote. The European Parliament is debating proposals to remove EU import tariffs on U.S. industrial products and improve access for U.S. agriculture produce, which are key parts of the agreement, as well continuing?zero duty for U.S. Lobsters initially agreed with Trump by 2020. The vote of the Parliament on Thursday does not mark the end of the process. Starting on April 13, representatives of the parliament and EU governments will begin to negotiate final texts before a vote by EU legislators is expected in June. EU governments approved legislation in November, with less protections. Concerns of Parliamentarians The U.S. will be the EU's biggest trading partner in 2025, with EU exports reaching a record of 555 billion euro ($641 billion). Many parliamentarians expressed their disapproval of the deal in a discussion before the vote. The EU was required to reduce most import duties, while the U.S. stuck to its 15% general rate. Bernd Lange is the chairman of the trade committee in the parliament. He said that the agreement was not a real one. Kathleen Van Brempt, a Belgian Social Democratic, called it a bad deal. It does not bring stability. She said that it does not protect against tariffs, threats or coercion. The EU assembly was due to vote on a?legislation? at the beginning of the year. However, work was halted after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs? on European allies who did not support his acquisition of Greenland proposal and launched an import surcharge. There are also additional safeguards, such as a'sunset' clause that ends the tariff concessions on March 31, 2028 and a clause which suspends the agreement if Washington violates the terms of this deal or there is an increase in U.S. imports. Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop. Editing by Inti landauro Timothy Heritage Mark Potter
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WTO chief calls on trade reform to meet the new world order
WTO chief demanded on Thursday that countries re-examine global trade rules. He said the old order was 'gone for good' after a year of turmoil caused by U.S. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala outlined a number of issues facing the World Trade Organization, including the paralysis in its dispute-settlement mechanisms. This was at the beginning of a four day meeting of the organization held in Cameroon. "The world order, the multilateral system that we knew has irrevocably changed." "We will never get it back... we must look forward to the future," said the WTO Director General. Some diplomats and officials from the trade sector warned ahead of the session that countries would abandon the ideal of an international trade system based on rules if they failed to reach an agreement. They could also start setting their own regulations. The Yaounde meeting comes amid growing concerns about the impact of U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. Okonjo Iweala stated that the problems with decision-making in the organization needed to be addressed. Its current consensus model is regularly held up by the objections of some countries. Some delegates want the organization to allow groups of members to form agreements. She said that there was also a lack transparency in determining which countries used subsidies. Okonjo Iweala, who addressed delegates at the conference, said: "Lacking transparency breeds distrust and suspicions about unfairness and anticompetitive behavior." She added that this contributed to a “vicious cycle” of mistrust, which held back members from agreeing on new rules and reforms. Internal reform documents seen by?by reveal that the U.S. is in favor of reforms, but does not want a detailed plan. The EU, Britain and China, however, support a single reform document. Before the session, Swiss Ambassador Erwin Bollinger stated that "if we don't accomplish anything concrete, then the WTO loses its?attractiveness and relevance". UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant warned that a deal could lead to fragmentation. Bryant stated that he was worried about a disorderly collapse in the WTO, and some people writing new rules. India will oppose U.S. efforts at the meeting to extend a worldwide ban on cross-border ecommerce duties. New Delhi believes that developing nations should have the right to impose such a ban. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to inform members that the U.S. "is not interested" in temporary extension of the ban. Only a permanent extension is desired. Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin, Editing by Chris Reese and Lincoln Feast; Andrew Heavens.
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Zelenskiy comments on US Donbas stance pleased Russia
A senior Kremlin representative said that Russia was pleased with the remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who claimed Washington had tied its offer of?security guarantee to Kyiv's surrender of eastern Donbas. Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian special envoy, told reporters that Zelenskiy’s comments, made in an article, “can't but make us happy”. Dmitriev stated that "he said an important thing...he finally understood the U.S. stance, which is?that they will only support security guarantee if Ukraine leaves Donbas." Zelenskiy said that President Donald Trump is applying pressure on Kyiv to end the four-year conflict triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion. Zelenskiy acknowledged the U.S. position on Donbas but said Washington needs to do more. Understand "that the eastern part of our country is a part of our?security guarantees". He wants strong security guarantees from international partners in order to make sure that Russia doesn't restart hostilities after any peace agreement is reached. US-RUSSIA TALKS TO CONTINUE The Russian enemies are 'in a mad state' because the negotiations between Moscow, Washington and other countries on economic cooperation continue. He stated that the topic of raising money for reconstruction in areas devastated by war was being discussed. He cited as an example the U.S. playing a "positive" and "constructive" role in the European Union deciding last year to not seize 210 Billion Euros ($240 Billion) worth of Russian sovereign assets to pay for a Ukrainian loan. Dmitriev said that despite the ongoing negotiations with the U.S., Russia could still take tough action elsewhere, citing the "provocations" from the EU, Britain and other countries against the Russian fleet. Russia also informed the U.S. of recent drone attacks by Ukraine against Russian energy infrastructure. He called it an attempt to worsen the global energy crises,? he said. Calculations show that at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted following drone attacks by Ukraine, an disputed attack on major pipelines, and the seizure or tankers. This is the worst oil supply disruption that Russia has ever experienced. (Written by Gleb Brynski, edited by Andrei Khalip).
Oil price spikes as Iran crisis causes a drop in stocks and bonds
Oil surged over 5% on Thursday, and Iran's denial that it had held any talks with the U.S. heightened doubts about the prospects of a rapid ceasefire for the Middle East conflict which has lasted nearly a month.
The conflicting signals about the'scope of contact', as well as reports that thousands of U.S. troops were being sent into the region, halted the three-day recovery in the world?stocks? and reignited the selling on global debt markets.
Germany's central banking head stated that an ECB interest rate hike next month is "an option". Norway also said they are likely to raise rates this year.
The U.S. president Donald Trump warned Iran to "get seriously" about a cessation of hostilities. Oil and European Natural Gas prices rose more than 5% and 4%, respectively.
Brent reached just over $107 per barrel, and gas rose to 54.9 euro per megawatt-hour. Their gains for the month were an eye-watering 45% & 70% respectively. This has fueled policymakers' fears of another inflation spike similar to that seen in 2022.
Joachim Nagel, the German central bank's chief, said in an interview that he believes there will be enough data to decide by April whether or not we should take action.
He said that it was only one of many options available to the ECB, but added "we shouldn't be afraid just because it is still early."
Trump said again on Thursday that Iran is "begging" for a deal in order to end the conflict. Abbas Araqchi had said earlier that Tehran was'reviewing a U.S. offer but did not intend to hold talks.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran in late-February shook global markets, and shut down the Strait of Hormuz – a conduit that carries a fifth of global oil and gas flows.
The first economic forecast by the Paris-based OECD after the crisis erupted predicted that it would suppress the global GDP growth and keep it below 3% in this year.
After falling by 4 basis points on Wednesday, the yield of Germany's 2-year bonds, which is sensitive to expectations about interest rates from the European Central Bank, increased 8 basis point to 2.68 percent. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.
As traders bet on a Bank of Japan rate increase as soon as next month, the U.S. 2-year yield reached 4%. Japan's two-year yield hit its highest in 30 years, at 1.33%.
Pascal Koeppel is the chief investment officer at Vontobel SFA. He said that a prolonged disruption could cause energy prices to rise and inflation to increase, which would force central banks into tightening.
On Thursday, the central bank of Norway said that it expects to increase its rates due to an increase in energy prices and wages this year, after initially indicating it might cut them.
Koeppel, Vontobel's Koeppel, added: "I would be more nervous if we saw ground troops (of the U.S.) in action." If this happened, "we'd trim the risk... and invest more in short-term government bond and gold, obviously."
STRUCTURAL CHANGES
Wall Street's main markets opened about 1% lower and the Asian markets fell overnight.
Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3% while concerns over rising energy prices hammered South Korea KOSPI which fell 3.2%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped by 1.9%, and China's blue-chips fell by 1.3%. This puts MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan on course for its biggest monthly drop since October 2022, 9.5%.
The dollar is gaining 2% this month and has been near its recent highs. This will revive the safe-haven appeal of the currency after last year's over 9% decline.
Traders have priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this year due to fears of an inflation shock similar to that of 2022. This has further supported the dollar.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has fallen more than?16% in the last month, on track for its steepest drop?since Oct 2008. Gold was down 2% on Thursday at $4,421, but still nearly?50% above where it was a year earlier.
It will be difficult to reconcile the goals of the U.S., Israel, and Tehran, said Matthias Scheiber. He is the senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments and head of their multi-assets team.
"We think that there are still arguments to be made for higher energy prices at the moment."
(source: Reuters)