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Sources say that China has allowed fresh urea to be exported amid the fertiliser crisis caused by the Iran war.
Sources with direct knowledge said that China had issued export quotas of urea 'fertiliser. This could ease the soaring prices of?one of the most widely used crop nutrients in the world after the'supply disruptions' linked to the Iran War. China, one of the largest exporters of fertilisers, banned the export of several categories of fertilisers in March in order to protect its domestic farmers from the price spikes caused by the closure of Strait of Hormuz. Urea exports can be managed through a quota-based system. The?issuing of quotas signals that authorities are confident enough in the domestic supply to release some for export. A Chinese urea manufacturer confirmed that it received export quotas, but refused to give further details. A Chinese importer told an Indian importer that the Chinese government issued a notification "permitting" urea exports. However, no specifics were provided. India is likely to welcome new export quotas, as its domestic urea prices are well below the international level. India imported over 40% of its DAP and urea from the Middle East in 2013. Bloomberg News reported that India had asked China in March to allow the sale of certain urea cargoes, as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran threatened gas supplies and fertilizer production. In the current situation, we will prefer Chinese supplies as they are more predictable. A senior official of an Indian fertilizer producing company said this. They don't have to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and so are more likely to arrive on time. According to several fertilizer industry sources and social media accounts, around 1.5 million tons of urea would be allocated. However, we could not independently verify this total. According to StoneX, an independent consultancy, China exported 4.9 million metric tonnes of urea in 2025. This is below the historical range of between 5 million and 5.5 million tons that usually account for around 10% global urea imports.
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MORNING BID EUROPE: Markets cheer and central banks warn
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Central bankers warn that inflationary damage has already been done, even though markets seem to have 'looked past the Middle East Crisis and the havoc this has caused on energy supplies. Share?markets have soared in Japan and South Korea, riding AI optimism that sent U.S. benchmarks soaring to new highs. This euphoria depends largely on the United States' and Iran's ability to reach a deal that will end their three-month conflict, and reopen Strait of Hormuz for oil shipping. These hopes were dashed by U.S. airstrikes on Iran's southern Hormozgan Province, which Tehran claimed violated a truce. Even if President Donald Trump's vision of a "Great Deal" between the U.S., Iran, and hundreds of stranded ships in the Gulf is realized, the oil market and consumer price effects will remain for some time. Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan governor, warned that a temporary shock in energy prices can have long-lasting effects. His comments follow those of European Central Bank board Member Isabel Schnabel who said that an interest rate increase?in June was warranted, even if the U.S. reached a peace agreement with Iran. In New Zealand inflationary pressures almost forced the central bank to announce a surprise rate hike today. Instead, it warned that they would need to raise rates more than expected at future meetings. We can still rely on the tech boom, even though oil is holding at near $100 per barrel and temperatures are rising in the Northern Hemisphere. Samsung Electronics employees voted in favor of a deal that would prevent a global chip supply strike. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's Jensen, said that the AI giant - and world's largest company - would increase annual investment in Taiwan by $150 billion. In Europe and North America, today is a relatively quiet day in terms of?economic data? and?earnings. Early trade saw the Euro Stoxx futures rise 0.16%. German DAX futures grew 0.06%. FTSE futures fell?0.25%. The S&P 500 eminis and U.S. futures were both flat. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Earnings: Abercrombie & Fitch (Bath & Body Works), Abercrombie & Fitch (Bank of Montreal), DICK'S Sporting Goods and National Bank of Canada Data from Europe: Consumer confidence in France and Greece for May; Swiss investor sentiments for May Lorie Logan, President of the Fed?Bank of Dallas, participates in a panel discussion in Tokyo - Debt auctions: France - Reopening 3-month, 6-month and 1-year auctions of government debt; Germany - Reopening 15-year auction of government debt; United Kingdom - Reopening 7-year auction of government debt
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Aluminium hovers near four-year high and copper hits near two-week peak
London copper prices reached a two-week high Wednesday as lower oil 'prices eased concerns about inflation and economic growth. Aluminum hovered at its highest level for more than four years on supply concerns. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $13,688.50 per metric tonne by 0334 GMT after reaching its highest level since May 15 during the previous session. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract remained unchanged at $15,495. Brent crude oil fell this week and was trading at its lowest level in over a month, alleviating some concerns about inflation and global slowdown. This supported demand for copper which is widely considered a bellwether of the health and strength of the global economic system. Copper's popularity is also boosted by the expectation of a massive AI boom, which will require large quantities of copper to power data centres. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive, said: "The main tension in the markets is whether or not this AI buildout story can continue to diverge?from?the inflation concerns triggered by?the U.S.-Iran War and its dramatic effects." Iran claimed on Tuesday that the U.S. violated a truce by attacking targets near the contested Strait of Hormuz. This could complicate efforts to end the war. The price of three-month aluminium at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.5%, to $3 689 per metric ton. Prices rose to their highest level since March 24, 2020 in the previous session. The price of alumina, the main feedstock for aluminium, has risen. Also due to a reduced supply by Gulf producers there is a tightening in the market. The September alumina contracts on the 'Shanghai Futures Exchange' rose by?over 1 percent to reach their highest level since April 28. The LME Aluminium Cash Contract premium has also remained high despite the reduced aluminium production from Gulf producers as a result of the conflict. As of Tuesday, the price per ton was $73 Nickel gained?0.5%, tin rose 0.8%, and zinc increased 0.3% on the LME. Nickel reached?its highest levels since May 14?while the lead hovered around a four-month peak. Aluminium, among other SHFE metals rose by 0.8%, while zinc fell 0.7%, and lead increased 0.3%. Nickel gained 1.9%, and tin grew 0.6%.
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Indian shares are open with little change due to caution regarding the shaky US/Iran truce
The Indian share market opened on Wednesday with a?small increase, as caution prevailed over the fragile truce between?the U.S. Iran is a concern amid fears of a Middle East conflict escalation. Iran claimed on Tuesday that the U.S. violated a truce by attacking targets near the contested Strait of Hormuz. This could complicate efforts to end the three-month war. Lebanese sources of security said that Israel's?air strikes against Lebanon on Tuesday, one of the most intense days of bombings in recent weeks, further strained?peace attempts. Iran has demanded an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon as part any deal. Brent crude was hovering around $98 per barrel. As of 9:24 a.m. IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 index rose 0.07% to 23928.01 while the BSE Sensex gained 0.05% -to 76047.25. Nine out of 16 major sectors registered?gains. Small-caps and middle-caps, which are broader categories, gained 0.3% each. Coal India lost 5.3% after the government announced a sale of up to 2% in the state-owned firm via an offer to sell at a discount of 10% to the last closing price. Oil and Natural Gas Corp. lost?4% despite modest revenue and profit growth in the fourth quarter. (Reporting and editing by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, with Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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Oil prices drop as traders wait for US-Iran progress
The price of oil fell from its recent highs, wiping out some of the previous days' 4% increase. Traders sought clarity on the?complex?negotiations?between Iran and the U.S. Brent crude futures dropped $1.42 or 1.43% to $98.16 per barrel at 0253 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), lost $1.66 or 1.77% to $92.23 per barrel. The price of oil soared after the U.S. The military launched new strikes against Iran, sapping hopes that the United States and Iran could?come to an agreement?to end the war. Iran claimed on Tuesday that the United States violated a truce by striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S., however, said the strikes were defensive. Both sides claimed to have made progress in talks after an April ceasefire ended the three-month conflict. The Strait is a vital conduit for oil and gas flow around the world. The negotiations are now threatened by the escalating hostilities. Israel intensified its bombing of Lebanon on Tuesday, further straining the peace effort. The news that some LNG tankers had passed through the Strait in recent days raised hopes that it would reopen shortly, adding to the global supply.
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Markets eye the shaky US/Iran agreement as shares reach new heights
On Wednesday, Asian shares reached record highs and oil prices were still elevated as the markets awaited signs that a fragile truce between Iran and the United States would be extended. The dollar was up?from?the previous session, after Iran claimed that the U.S. violated a truce. New Zealand's currency rose after its central bank maintained its policy rate but indicated that future increases will have to be made sooner. After the U.S. stock market reopened after a long holiday, Japanese and South Korean stocks reached new highs on AI optimism. The mood remains fragile, though, as the talks to end the conflict that has rocked the energy markets for three months continue. Central bankers will also be watching to see how the crisis affects the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He wrote that the markets were waiting for "something tangible" in regards to a possible deal between Iran and the U.S. A lot of good news is already priced in. This leaves room for disappointment when something more comprehensive is not announced. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan has advanced for the fifth consecutive session, gaining 1.9% and reaching a new high. Japan's Nikkei index jumped by 1% and briefly traded above 66,000 for the first. South Korea's KOSPI rose 4.3% after the unionised employees of Samsung?Electronics voted in favor of a tentative wage deal that averted a strike which threatened to shake global chip supplies. Early European trades saw the Euro Stoxx 50 futures rise by 0.18%. German DAX futures also rose by 0.1%. FTSE futures fell 0.1%. The S&P 500 eminis, which are U.S. stocks futures, rose 0.09%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose 0.01% in currency markets to 99.11, after a previous session of 0.15% gains. The euro gained 0.07%, to $1.1636. And the yen remained unchanged at 159.28 per US dollar. Iran's Foreign Ministry?said U.S. attacks in southern Hormozgan Province represented a "gross breach" of a truce. The U.S. claimed that its attacks were defensive. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated that a deal to end the conflict with Tehran could "take only a few days." Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran is seeking the release $24 billion of frozen funds overseas. U.S. crude fell 1.24%, to $92.73 per barrel. Brent fell to $98.70, down 0.88% for the day after nearly 4% of a surge the previous session. In a split board decision, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates at 2.25%. The decision emphasized that rates should be increased sooner. The kiwi gained 0.58% against the greenback, to reach $0.587. Data from Australia showed that core inflation increased in April, but not as much as expected. The Aussie fell 0.1% to $0.716. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, warned that a temporary energy crisis can persist if it is reflected in wages and pricing behaviour. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank's board, advocated for a rate increase in June despite achieving a U.S. Iran peace deal. Spot gold dropped 0.07%, to $4,502.72 per ounce. Copper rose 0.52%, to $13,695.00 per metric ton. Bitcoin fell by 0.40%, to $75,711.92 and ether dropped by 0.26%, to $2,070.46.
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Former Braves slugger Bob Horner dead at 68
Bob Horner died on Tuesday, aged 68. He was a former first-round pick, who made it straight to the "big leagues" and hit four homeruns in a single game. Kansas native?Horner, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves as the first player overall in the 1878 Amateur Draft. He made his debut on the big leagues a week after that against the Pittsburgh Pirates at age 20. Horner hit a home run that day against?future Hall-of-Famer Bert Blyleven. Horner was the National League's Rookie of the year in 1989, when he hit.266 with 23 homers and?63 RBIs. He beat out future Hall-of-Famer shortstop Ozzie. Horner hit four home runs on July 6, 1986 at Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium, during the Braves 11-8 loss against the Montreal Expos. Horner is one of 21 players who have achieved this feat, and the only Brave other than Joe Adcock. Adcock hit four home runs against the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1954 while playing for the Milwaukee Braves. Horner was plagued with injuries for most of his professional career. He played at third base the majority of his time and still managed to hit 218 homeruns and slug an impressive.499. He was an All-Star for the Braves in 1982, when he had 32 home runs and 97 RBIs. Horner played for nine seasons with the Braves (from 1978-86), and then one with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1988, after playing with the Yakult Swallows from the Japan Central League. He hit?31 homers and batted.327 over 93 games. Horner's death comes just weeks after that of Bobby Cox, Horner’s first manager and Ted Turner, former owner. Field Level Media
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Chinese coking coal prices fall as supply concerns are outweighed by demand concerns
China's coal prices dropped on Wednesday, as concerns about steel demand trumped supply jitters caused by a fatal mine accident that occurred in the northern Shanxi Province. The accident had sparked a rally for two straight sessions. As heavy rains have hit southern regions, steel demand is showing signs of easing. Data from the state-backed Steel Association showed on Tuesday that China's daily crude output is expected to drop by 0.9%?from its first ten-day levels. As of 0315 GMT, the most traded coking coal contract at Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped?1.63% and was now worth $186.81 per metric ton. The DCE coke contract that was most active dropped 1.95%, to 1,861 Yuan per ton. The prices of the two feedstocks for steelmaking soared earlier this week, as fears about supply grew after a series of safety inspections conducted at coal mines across a larger region following a deadly gas explosion that occurred late Friday night at the Liushenyu mine in Shanxi. Analysts at Everbright Futures wrote in a report that'steel margins were squeezed due to higher feedstock costs and sluggish downstream steel demand,' putting pressure on the prices of ingredients. The price of iron ore was mixed. The most active DCE contract fell 0.38% to 781 yuan a ton, while the benchmark June iron ore at the Singapore Exchange rose 0.12% to $105.15 per ton. The steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mostly lower. Rebar fell?0.69%. Hot-rolled coil dropped 0.53%. Wire rod decreased 0.8%. Stainless steel increased 1.32%. ($1 = 6.7824 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
Oil price spikes as Iran crisis causes a drop in stocks and bonds
Oil surged over 5% on Thursday, and Iran's denial that it had held any talks with the U.S. heightened doubts about the prospects of a rapid ceasefire for the Middle East conflict which has lasted nearly a month.
The conflicting signals about the'scope of contact', as well as reports that thousands of U.S. troops were being sent into the region, halted the three-day recovery in the world?stocks? and reignited the selling on global debt markets.
Germany's central banking head stated that an ECB interest rate hike next month is "an option". Norway also said they are likely to raise rates this year.
The U.S. president Donald Trump warned Iran to "get seriously" about a cessation of hostilities. Oil and European Natural Gas prices rose more than 5% and 4%, respectively.
Brent reached just over $107 per barrel, and gas rose to 54.9 euro per megawatt-hour. Their gains for the month were an eye-watering 45% & 70% respectively. This has fueled policymakers' fears of another inflation spike similar to that seen in 2022.
Joachim Nagel, the German central bank's chief, said in an interview that he believes there will be enough data to decide by April whether or not we should take action.
He said that it was only one of many options available to the ECB, but added "we shouldn't be afraid just because it is still early."
Trump said again on Thursday that Iran is "begging" for a deal in order to end the conflict. Abbas Araqchi had said earlier that Tehran was'reviewing a U.S. offer but did not intend to hold talks.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran in late-February shook global markets, and shut down the Strait of Hormuz – a conduit that carries a fifth of global oil and gas flows.
The first economic forecast by the Paris-based OECD after the crisis erupted predicted that it would suppress the global GDP growth and keep it below 3% in this year.
After falling by 4 basis points on Wednesday, the yield of Germany's 2-year bonds, which is sensitive to expectations about interest rates from the European Central Bank, increased 8 basis point to 2.68 percent. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.
As traders bet on a Bank of Japan rate increase as soon as next month, the U.S. 2-year yield reached 4%. Japan's two-year yield hit its highest in 30 years, at 1.33%.
Pascal Koeppel is the chief investment officer at Vontobel SFA. He said that a prolonged disruption could cause energy prices to rise and inflation to increase, which would force central banks into tightening.
On Thursday, the central bank of Norway said that it expects to increase its rates due to an increase in energy prices and wages this year, after initially indicating it might cut them.
Koeppel, Vontobel's Koeppel, added: "I would be more nervous if we saw ground troops (of the U.S.) in action." If this happened, "we'd trim the risk... and invest more in short-term government bond and gold, obviously."
STRUCTURAL CHANGES
Wall Street's main markets opened about 1% lower and the Asian markets fell overnight.
Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3% while concerns over rising energy prices hammered South Korea KOSPI which fell 3.2%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped by 1.9%, and China's blue-chips fell by 1.3%. This puts MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan on course for its biggest monthly drop since October 2022, 9.5%.
The dollar is gaining 2% this month and has been near its recent highs. This will revive the safe-haven appeal of the currency after last year's over 9% decline.
Traders have priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this year due to fears of an inflation shock similar to that of 2022. This has further supported the dollar.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has fallen more than?16% in the last month, on track for its steepest drop?since Oct 2008. Gold was down 2% on Thursday at $4,421, but still nearly?50% above where it was a year earlier.
It will be difficult to reconcile the goals of the U.S., Israel, and Tehran, said Matthias Scheiber. He is the senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments and head of their multi-assets team.
"We think that there are still arguments to be made for higher energy prices at the moment."
(source: Reuters)