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Copper prices rise on the back of falling inventories
Copper prices reached their highest level in over a week Monday, as lower oil costs eased concerns about economic growth and demand. The market was also focusing on dwindling stocks. Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange were up 0.6% to $13,876 per metric ton at 0903 GMT, after reaching $13,900. This was their highest price since July 22. The drop in oil after U.S. president Donald Trump called off his 'fresh attack' on Iran to seek a deal that would curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions eased concerns about price pressures, according to traders. Britannia Global Markets stated in a report that "the markets are still headline driven as we begin the week. Energy markets remain the main focus." The underlying fundamental picture for copper appears to be supportive. The inventories in the London Metal Exchange and China Metal Exchange are in a depletion state. The copper stocks registered at the LME have dropped by nearly 40% since May, to 244,025 tonnes. This is their lowest level since February. Since February of last year, producers and traders have shipped copper to the United States, after President Donald Trump threatened to impose import tariffs. This created a premium in U.S. Copper over LME Prices. The U.S. Commerce Department had to finish a review on the copper market before?June 30 but Trump hasn't yet announced any decision regarding tariffs. Nickel prices fell in other parts of the world after Indonesia resumed its exports. This eased supply concerns for the near future. The contract for three months was down by 1.2% at $17,040 per ton. Indonesia's Chief of Staff Dudung Abdurachman said the ban only applied when rare earths was the primary product. The clarification has reportedly reduced the 'fear of prolonged disruptions to Indonesian nickel shipments. Officials have yet to finalise testing procedures and concentration limits. Other metals saw a 1% gain in aluminium to $3.215 per ton. Zinc rose 1.1% to $3.682 and tin remained unchanged at $55,295.
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Oil prices fall on hopes for a peace agreement with Iran and yen firms following intervention
On Monday, oil prices plunged sharply and European stock markets rose as hopes grew of a peace agreement in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened?to an all-time high after the U.S. confirmed a joint intervention to?support a weak currency. Brent crude futures fell $4.50 or more than 5% to $83.40 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place on Monday. He had previously called off an assault on Iran in order to pursue a plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz. European stocks rose 0.4% on Monday, kicking off August in a positive note. The German DAX set an intra-day high and closed the day up 1.3%. Bruno Schneller is the managing partner of multi-family office Erlen Capital Management. He said that "for equity markets, fundamentally, the picture remains positive". Companies with resilient business models and strong pricing power continue to outperform. S&P futures increased by 0.5%, while Nasdaq Futures gained 0.6%. Florian Ielpo's research, Monday, as head of macro for Lombard Odier Investment Managers noted, showed that 86% of companies had surpassed earnings expectations. Asian stocks suffered as the new month began, following a turbulent and wild July that saw investors worry about massive investments in AI. Japan's Nikkei fell 1% while South Korea's KOSPI dropped more than 5%. The MSCI world stock index was flat as a result. YEN BEAR COWER FOLLOWING JOINT INTERVENTION The Japanese yen gained over 0.5% to 156.70 US dollars after a sudden movement earlier in the day, when it reached its highest since early May at 155.2. This put traders on high alert for further intervention. Japan's Finance Ministry confirmed on Monday that the U.S. and Japan conducted a coordinated yen buying intervention, and they will not hesitate to continue, as a rare bilateral measure to stop the yen from falling to its lowest level in 40 years. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said that the United States will also consider in the coming months increasing the size of Federal Reserve's Repurchase Facility providing temporary dollar liquidity, calling this tool an "important backup". Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX, said that Besent's comments carry more weight than his intervention. It feels like the Japanese yen is at its lowest level for the year. "Joint Intervention" is a phrase that has a lot weight on these markets, and it's rarely used." Trump said that the United States helped Japan to 'prop up the yen' as a show of friendship and in order to help the global economy. Tokyo's unilateral intervention between late April to early May caused only a short?yen recovery, whereas a rate increase in June by the Bank of Japan gave little support, underlining the challenges policymakers face due to rising oil prices and an interest-rate gap with other major economies. Before the recent interventions, the yen was rooted at a 40-year low of 163.99 dollars per yen, and net short positions were around $12.5 billion. This is the largest amount of money that has been held in the yen in the past two years. Masahiko loo, senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Investment Management, said that 155 is the next level to watch. Bessent's?actions and comments, in which he repeated his call for further interest rate hikes from the BOJ, have brought monetary policy into focus. Elsewhere, ?U.S. Treasury yields fell as oil prices dropped. The 30-year bond yield fell 4.5 basis point to around 5.23%. This is a slight decline from the 19-year high reached last week. Investors were confused by the Iran War and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in July. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie and Ankur Banerjee, both in London; editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jacqueline Wong.
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UK bond yields drop as oil prices fall on renewed hope for a peace agreement with Iran
British government bond yields fell 'on Monday, as oil prices dropped by $4 per barrel after U.S. president Donald 'Trump announced that he would be resuming talks with Iran and calling off military strikes. At 0715 GMT, the yields on two-year gilts, which are sensitive to interest rate forecasts in the short-term, fell by?around nine basis points to 4.325%. This was a greater fall than that of German or U.S. government bonds. The 10-year gilt yields fell?below 5 percent, falling by?8 basis points to 4.975%. Meanwhile, the 30-year gilt rates were also 8 basis points lower at 5.702%. Michiel Tukker is ING's senior UK and Euro zone rates strategist. The relationship between rates and oil prices is not easing. Tukker said that the longer oil prices are elevated, the greater the chance of a second-round inflation effect. Suban Abdulla reported; David Milliken edited.
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South Korean stocks plunge over 5% in August, as chipmakers are the main culprits
South Korean shares closed more than 5% down on Monday. The start of August was a rough one as investors sold off the heavyweight chipmakers after a record rally in the previous session. The benchmark KOSPI index fell 5.1% to 6,257.45 after surging by 18% in the previous session. The gauge, however, fell 22.2% during July for its biggest monthly decline since October 2008. The stock market in Seoul has been slashed due to a rapid winding down of leveraged bets on heavyweight chipmakers, and concerns about the durability of capital expenditures by AI hyperscalers. The record Friday rally was followed by fresh selling on the Monday after, highlighting the fragile sentiment surrounding AI investments and the outsized impact of leveraged retail betting on the heavyweight chipmakers. Samsung Electronics, and its rival SK Hynix, which together account for over half of the KOSPI Index, have shed 9% and 8,7% respectively. "Today's drop is better interpreted as a rebalancing of positions rather than a fundamental change." Billy Leung is an investment strategist with Global X ETFs Australia. He said that Korean equities are now a "high beta proxy" for global AI sentiment. The near-term path will remain volatile, given the amount of leverage in the system. However, the demand background underneath the volatility remains strong. William Bratton of BNP Paribas' Cash Equity Research in APAC says that the KOSPI volatility can be seen by the sharp swings this year. 32 of 42 daily movements of over 5% during the last decade occurred this year, as of July 31. Regulators introduced measures to limit the impact of highly volatile financial instruments. Investors remain unsure whether these measures will be enough to survive the current market slump. Bratton noted that "our discussions with investors indicate a high level of frustration" because the current market volatility is overshadowing the fundamental story. Data showed that 'July exports exceeded market expectations due to a 179% increase in semiconductor shipments. A purchasing managers survey conducted by S&P Global also revealed that factory activity was expanding at a faster pace in July, based on the export demand. Other automakers in the KOSPI were?Hyundai Motor, and Kia Corp, which is a sister company, both rose 1.3%, and fell 1.7%. According to exchange data, foreigners sold shares worth $2,826.2 billion ($1.98 billion), after selling a total amount of $9.86 trillion in July. According to a source, the won strengthened to 1,426.20 against the U.S. Dollar, but it remained below its 1,418-level reached last Thursday, after foreign exchange authorities made a rare dollar selling intervention.
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Gold prices rise as oil prices fall after Trump delays Iran attack
Gold prices rose on Monday as oil prices dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump waited to launch a new attack on Iran, hoping for a quick deal. This helped ease concerns about inflation and rising interest rates. As of 0655 GMT, spot gold was up 0.6% to $4,063.35 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.1% to $4,053.70. After authorities intervened on the foreign exchange market to support yen prices, the U.S. Dollar was under pressure. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for 'KCM Trade. He said that gold has had a relatively positive start to the week, but the gains are still limited due to the uncertainty surrounding the oil markets and the Middle East. Trump stated that talks with Iran would take place on Monday, but he declined to give a deadline. Brent crude dropped nearly 6%. Since the beginning of the U.S. - Iran conflict, gold has been under pressure as a rise in inflation caused by war could lead central banks to increase interest rates. While bullion has traditionally been viewed as an inflation hedge, its appeal is diminished in a high interest rate environment since it doesn't yield any interest. Participants in the market will also be focusing on the U.S. employment reports that are due this week. These include the ADP Employment Report, weekly claims for joblessness, and the nonfarm Payrolls report. Waterer stated that "any renewed escalation of the Middle East, which?pushes the oil higher, or a strong NFP that reinforces the September rate-hike chances, could cap the downside." Three U.S. Federal Reserve members who dissented from the meeting last week and favored a rate increase expressed concern on Friday about the inflation remaining stuck above the Fed's target of 2% without an immediate rise in short-term borrowing rates. In a recent note, Standard Chartered analysts said that they continue to expect the gold price to recover on seasonal buying. Spot silver rose 0.9% to $58.17; platinum increased 0.2% to 1,645.89; and palladium grew 1.1% to $1.287.19.
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Oil prices fall on hope of Iran Deal, but yen firms are still active after intervention
The oil prices fell and the?U.S. Stock futures in Europe and the U.S. rose Monday amid growing hopes for a Middle East peace agreement, while the yen strengthened to a high of three months after the U.S. Japan and the United States confirmed a joint intervention in order to support the fragile?currency. Brent crude futures fell more than 4%, to $83.88 per barrel, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place on Monday. He had previously called off an imminent strike on Iran in order to reach a agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz, and resolve the impasse regarding Tehran's nuke capabilities. S&P futures increased by 0.6%, while Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.8%. European futures rose 0.8%. Asian stocks were down at the beginning of the week following a turbulent month that saw wild swings in the AI market. Investors worried about massive capital expenditure and whether they would provide returns quickly. Japan's Nikkei fell 1% while South Korea's KOSPI dropped more than 5%. MSCI's broadest?Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1%. YEN BEAR COWER FOLLOWING JOINT INTERVENTION The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 156.49 US dollars after an abrupt move earlier in day that saw it reach its highest level since early May (155.2), putting traders on high alert for another round of intervention. Japan's Finance Ministry confirmed on Monday that the U.S. and Japan conducted a coordinated yen buying intervention, and they will not hesitate to continue. This is a rare bilateral action taken to stop the yen from falling to new 40-year-lows. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said that the United States will also consider increasing the size of Federal Reserve's repurchase facility in the coming months to provide temporary dollar liquidity. He called the tool "important backstop". Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that Besent's remarks carry more weight than his intervention. It feels like the Japanese yen is at its lowest level for the year. "The term 'joint interventions' is rarely used in these markets, but it carries a great deal of weight." Trump said that the United States helped Japan support the yen on Sunday as a gesture of friendship and in order to aid the global economy. Tokyo's unilateral intervention between late April to early May only caused a short yen recovery, and the Bank of Japan rate hike in the month of June provided little support, underlining the challenges facing policymakers due to rising oil prices and an interest rate differential with other major economies. Data from an American regulator showed that the yen was at a 40-year low of 163.99 dollars per yen in the recent weeks, and had net short positions of approximately $12.5 billion. This is the highest amount in the past two years. Masahiko LOO, senior fixed income analyst at State Street Investment Management, said that 155 is the level to watch in the near term. It has effectively served as a market floor/resistance since the May intervention of this year. Bessent's repeated calls for the BOJ to increase interest rates and his actions have brought monetary policy into sharp focus. On Monday, the 2-year JGB rate, which is most sensitive to short-term monetary policy changes, briefly reached 1.545%, its highest level since 1995 as markets priced in an early rate increase. "Intervention could shape the next few weeks. The next few years will be shaped by BOJ normalisation and hedging flows. Loo stated that the next major move of the yen could be upwards, not downwards. Oil prices dropped, which led to lower yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. The 30-year bond yield fell 3.7 basis point to 5.238%. This is a slight decrease from the 19-year high that was reached last week. Investors were confused by the Iran War and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in July, which caused the yield to jump 372 basis points. Reporting by Ankur banerjee from Singapore, Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Jacqueline Wong
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South Korean shares fall over 5% following record rally, as chipmakers are leading the sell-off
South Korean shares fell more than 5% Monday, kicking off the month of August in a rough?note. Investors sold off heavyweight chips makers?after a record rally during the previous session. As of 0420 GMT, the?benchmark?KOSPI Index fell as much as 5.5%. It had soared by an unprecedented 18% on Friday. The gauge, however, fell 22.2% during July and was the steepest drop in a month since October 2008. The stock market in Seoul has been slashed due to a rapid winding down of leveraged bets on heavyweight chipmakers, and concerns about the durability of capital expenditures by AI hyperscalers. The record Friday rally was followed by fresh selling on monday, which underscored the fragile sentiment surrounding AI investments and the outsized impact of leveraged retail betting on heavyweight chipmakers. Samsung Electronics, and its rival SK Hynix, which together account for more than half the KOSPI Index, both fell by 8.4% and 7.6% respectively. "Today's drop is better interpreted as a rebalancing of positions rather than a fundamental change." Billy Leung is an investment strategist at Global X ETFs Australia. He said that Korean equities are a good proxy for the global AI sentiment. The near-term path is likely to remain volatile, given the amount of leverage remaining in the system. However, the demand background underneath the volatility remains strong. William Bratton of BNP Paribas' Cash Equity Research in APAC says that the KOSPI is volatile. This year, 32 of 42 daily movements of more than 5 percent over the last decade occurred. Regulators introduced measures to limit the impact of high-volatility financial products. Investors remain skeptical that these measures will be enough to survive the current market slump. Bratton noted that "our discussions with investors indicate a high level of frustration" because the current volatility in the market is overshadowing the fundamental story. Data showed that July exports exceeded market expectations, thanks to a 179% increase in semiconductor shipments. A purchasing managers survey conducted by S&P Global also revealed that factory activity expanded at a faster pace in July due to export demand. Hyundai Motor, the sister company of Kia Corp, and other automakers were also up or down in the KOSPI. According to exchange data, foreigners sold shares worth 2,16 trillion won ($1.51billion) on Monday after selling a total of 9.86 trillion won last month. According to a source, the won strengthened to 1,429.40 against the U.S. Dollar, but it remained below its 1,418-level reached last Thursday, after foreign exchange authorities made a rare dollar selling intervention.
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Swiss stocks: Factors to be on the lookout for on August 3.
Here are a few of the main factors that could affect Swiss stocks on Monday. BUSINESS STATEMENTS HOLCIM - AG Swiss building materials'supplier HOLCIM said?on a Sunday that it planned to sell its Philippines business in a deal worth at least $807 millions to China Huaxin Building Materials. NOVARTIS FDA approves 'pluvicto' for PSMA+ metastatic prostate cancer with hormone-sensitive metastatic (MHSPC). This could be a?new standard in metastatic disease. Analysts' Views COMET HOLDING AG: Berenberg increases target price from CHF 480 to CHF 490- COMET?HOLDINGAG: JP Morgan increases?target to?CHF565 from?CHF500 BUCHER INDUSTRIESAG: Berenberg reduces target to CHF360 from CHF366 ECONOMY Swiss July CPI is due at 0630 GMT. Swiss July Manufacturing PMI is due at 0730 GMT. SNB sight deposits due at 0800 GMT. (Reporting by ?Zurich newsroom and Gdansk newsroom) |1|For Top ?News in ?a multimedia Web format on Eikon visit: https://bit.ly/2NDFd6g FOR RELATED PRICES, ?NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS, ?DOUBLE-CLICK ON: Daily Swiss stock market report in German All SMI ?constituent stocks DJ STOXX index Top ?10 STOXX sectors Top ?10 EUROSTOXX sectors Swiss mid-cap index Swiss all-share index Swiss market digest Sector overview All Swiss news Swiss research news All equity news SPEED GUIDES: |1|
US consumer inflation is stable before the Iran conflict increases oil prices
U.S. consumer price rose modestly in February, as rents continued to increase at a steady pace. However, households had to pay more for gas and groceries. And higher costs will be in store due to the escalating Middle East war.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index Report on Wednesday also showed that inflation was muted in the month prior to the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. Tehran retaliated against the attacks that took place at the end of February and has subsequently pushed up oil prices.
AAA data showed that gasoline prices had risen by 20% since the start of the war, to $3.58 a gallon. Gasoline prices had been increasing in anticipation of hostilities in Middle East.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates at the same level next week, according to economists.
Ellen Zentner is the chief economist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. She said that a steady inflation rate would be welcome on any day. But, with geopolitical unrest and soaring oil prices, this data may not have the same weight, either in the markets or among the Fed.
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department reported that Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in February after increasing 0.2% in January. CPI increased by 2.4% in the 12-month period ending February. This is the same as the increase of January, and reflects the removal of high readings from last year. The CPI increase was in line with expectations.
In order to achieve its inflation target of 2%, the U.S. Central Bank tracks Personal Consumption Spending price indexes.
After a similar increase in January, the rise in CPI was reflected in a 0.2% rise in owners' equivalent rental of primary residence. The primary rents rose by 0.1%. This is the lowest gain since January 20,21. Economists argued, however, that the October inflation data was not collected due to last year's shutdown of government, which caused rents to be distorted.
In normal times, this would not be a problem, said Gregory Daco, chief economics at EY-Parthenon. "These are not normal times. The data should be interpreted in light of the distortions caused by the government shutdown, the unprecedented volatility in trade policy, and the record swings in oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict."
Daco estimates that the 43-day record shutdown last year caused CPI inflation to understate by approximately 0.3-0.4 percent points. After two consecutive months of declining gasoline prices, the price increased by 0.8%. The price of oil soared to well over $100 per barrel in the first part of this week before falling back. On Wednesday, oil prices recovered as traders questioned whether the International Energy Agency proposal to release record amounts of reserves would be able to offset any potential supply shocks caused by the Iran War.
Economists expected gasoline prices to reach $4 per gallon in the near future. Electricity prices, though they eased monthly, jumped by 4.8% compared to a year earlier due to the strong demand for artificial intelligence from data centers. Last month, prices for household gas soared by 3.1%. Prices for gas piped to households rose 10.9% on an annual basis.
Last month, food prices increased by 0.4%. This was largely due to a 3.7% increase in the price of chewing gum and candy. Fruit and vegetable costs increased by 1.4% while non-alcoholic beverages went up 0.8%. Prices for dairy products and other related items dropped by 0.6%, while cereals and baked goods fell by 0.2%. Prices of food are 3.1% more expensive than they were a year earlier.
RISE IN FOOD AND GASOLINE PRICE IS IMPACTING CONSUMERS
The Trump administration highlighted the moderate increases in CPI as an indication of a cooling of overall inflation. A White House spokesperson posted on social media that "the nation will see even greater economic progress" once the disruptions caused by war are over.
The rising food and gasoline prices pose a risk to Trump's Republican Party as they prepare for the November midterm elections.
The Wall Street stock market was mixed. Dollar rose against a basket currency. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were higher. The CPI increased as well, despite the staggered, but continued pass-through of Trump's sweeping Tariffs. Trump imposed them under a law intended for national emergencies, that has since been ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
The Institute for Supply Management's surveys show that input costs have been steadily rising. Trump responded to the Supreme Court ruling by imposing an initial 10% global tariff. He said that this would increase to 15%.
The CPI rose 0.3% in January, but gained only 0.2% when the volatile energy and food components are excluded. Core CPI inflation was slowed by the third consecutive monthly decrease in motor vehicle prices as well as a smaller increase in rental rates.
The cost of furniture and household operations increased by 0.3%, while apparel prices rose 1.3%. This is due to the import duty pass-through.
Healthcare costs rose 0.5%. Hospital services increased by 0.6%, while prices for physician's services rose 0.3%. ?Prescription prices, however, fell 0.2%. Hotel and motel room prices rose by 1.1%. The cost of airline tickets increased by 1.4%, and it is possible that they will rise even more as jet fuel prices are likely to increase due to the war.
The core CPI rose 2.5% in the 12 months to February after increasing by the same margin of 2.5% in January. This also reflects favorable base effects. The tame core CPI readings are unlikely to translate into modest core PCE inflation gains for February, according to economists. This is because different weightings and unexpectedly strong service prices in January's Producer Price Index report may have contributed.
The delayed January?PCE data, due this Friday, is expected to show an increase in core inflation. The PCE data for February will be released on 9 April. The core PCE is expected to increase by 0.5% in January and 0.4% in February, according to economists.
James McCann is a senior economist at Edward Jones, who specializes in investment strategy. He said that another setback in inflation will likely make the central banks more cautious about further interest rate reductions. The Fed could still cut rates this year but the story is increasingly looking like it will be in late 2026 based on inflation expectations.
(source: Reuters)