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The season of macro forecasts is upon us.

The season of macro forecasts is upon us.
The season of macro forecasts is upon us.

What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.

From the Editor

Hello Morning Bid readers! As we enter the final month of 2018, it's time to look at the 2026 market forecasts. It's hard to find U.S. equity bulls but forecasts come with a lot of qualifiers. This is understandable, given the uncertainty surrounding an artificial intelligence boom. AI adoption may really take off in 2019, but according to ROI's editor-at-large Mike Dolan, U.S. growth will likely be constrained by the 150-year trendline of 2%, especially if technology innovation is hampered by supply chain bottlenecks or labor market bottlenecks. The U.S. labour market is as clear as mud. The U.S. private payrolls in November were negative 32,000, which is well below the consensus and represents the largest drop in over two and a quarter years. The number of Americans submitting new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in more than three year. A slice of the consumer delinquency data suggests that the U.S. economy might not be as grim as it seems despite the K-shaped economic model. Moreover, the fears that foreign investors will lose interest in U.S. stock markets may be unfounded. In recent months, the inflow of overseas private sector funds into U.S. stock markets has reaccelerated to record levels. Now the big question is if this trend can continue into next year. In Asia, Japan's 10-year bond yield reached its highest level since 2007, rising over 25 basis points in just four weeks. This was happening as Prime Minister Takaichi sought to calm investor fears about her $137-billion spending plan. The weakened yen is still hovering around 155 per dollar, close to the upper end of its long-term range. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ, believes that the currency's apparent excessive weakness could be a ticking bomb. In the energy markets, OPEC+ announced that they would maintain production levels through the first three months. The market is complicated by the uncertainty around sanctioned volume. OPEC+'s changes to the oil production quotas could lead to a surge of investments in upstream. In the meantime, Europe prepares to eliminate Russian imports from its gas market by 2027. Gavin Maguire, ROI's energy transition columnist, explains the countries that will be affected. Copper continues to be a hot commodity, but it does not necessarily mean that global manufacturing will increase in line with this trend by 2026. Next week's main event will be the Federal Reserve meeting. Fed-watchers are paying close attention to how many dissents there are, because this could indicate the growing divisions within an organization that has been known for its consensus. But the real story of the Fed is Donald Trump's choice for next chair. Mike Dolan says that if White House advisor Kevin Hassett, as Trump hinted at, is chosen - the markets will be watching his every word.

Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me via

CLYDE RUSSELL: You do not need to be a chess expert to understand the story of Sarwagya Kushwaha. She is the youngest chess player in history to have earned an official FIDE ranking before the age four.

RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. A picture speaks a thousand. This is why I suggest you look at the stunning collection of 'top photographs of 2025', which was selected from the over 1.6 million images released to clients in this year. What a year...

GAVIN MAGUIRE is the ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist. This high-def, updated map of U.S. Data Center Infrastructure created by the Chief Cartographer at the newly renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)is a work of art. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy26/98020.jpg

JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: AI is experiencing a speculative boom in the U.S. and around the world. Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli, professors of economics, examine Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes” to get a feel for where this might go. The 1978 book raises three important questions that are still relevant today.

MIKE DOLAN is the Editor-at-Large for ROI. It's rare to find a podcast about 'r*! This Brookings podcast, which will be released next week in conjunction with the Fed's meeting, shows how recent shocks may have caused this theoretical 'neutral rate' of interest to creep higher after years on decline.

JAMIE MCGEEVER is a columnist for ROI Markets. Michael Burry, the author of 'The Big Short,' doesn't do much media other than his often cryptic postings on X – and interviews are rarer still. Fast forward through 6-7 minutes worth of ads and introduction, and you'll find an interview with Michael Lewis on the Against the Rules podcast.

ANNA SZYMANSKI is the editor-in-charge of ROI. We have just launched a Morning Bid podcast that will be available both in audio and video. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear ROI editor-at large Mike Dolan, along with other journalists, discuss the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

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The opinions expressed are the authors'. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)

(source: Reuters)