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Oil prices continue to decline as oil flows through Hormuz are expected to be smoother
On Wednesday, oil prices continued to fall, and traded 'near the four-month lows reached in the previous session. This was on the back of signs that more oil tankers stuck in the Gulf after the Iran war were set to leave the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell 37 cents or 0.5% to $76.71 per barrel at 0043 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 36 cents or 0.5% to $72.85 per barrel. Both benchmarks fell nearly 1% Tuesday, reaching their lowest levels since March. The price of oil has been under pressure since this week, after Washington gave Tehran a waiver from sanctions for 60 days following the initial peace talks. This allowed it to sell its oil. Tomomichi Akuta is a senior economist with Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting. He said that crude oil prices fell due to hopes of easing U.S. - Iran tensions and a possible recovery in oil shipments across the Strait of Hormuz. He added that "further progress in the nuclear negotiations could push prices to pre-war levels." Oman and Iran agreed to continue discussions on Tuesday about the future administration of the Strait. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated that any Iranian attempt at levying transit fees would be a violation of international law. The durability of the agreement remains uncertain. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Iran agreed to "infinity" of nuclear inspections. Tehran denied this claim. Investors also watch to see how quickly Middle Eastern producers are able to restore exports, and whether or not more ships enter the region. A military source in Iran told the Fars News Agency that only a few vessels were allowed to?pass?through?the strait every day, under coordination with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy. Data from ship-tracking showed that three supertankers stranded in the Gulf passed through the strait Tuesday. After the U.S. and Iran ceasefire agreement, the U.N. Shipping Agency said that an evacuation plan is in place to allow hundreds of ships carrying 11,000 seafarers stranded on the Gulf coast to pass through the strait. According to market sources, crude stocks dropped by 765,00 barrels in the week ending June 19. The data was released on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute. Nine analysts surveyed by estimated that crude inventories had fallen by an average of 4.5 million barrels over the past week. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi)
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South Korean shares rise 4.1% on chip stocks' recovery
South Korea's KOSPI recovered sharply on Wednesday morning. It surged 4.1% in the first 30 minutes after nearly a 10% plunge just a day earlier. Retail?investors were rushing to buy a dip. KOSPI increased by more than 330 points, to 8,550.21, just moments after trading started at 0000 GMT. Market leader Samsung Electronics jumped more?than 9% and SK Hynix gained 5%. Seo 'Sang-young is a strategist with Mirae Asset Securities Co. He said that the rebound immediately recouped the double-digit losses of the previous session as retail investors filled the order books. Seo stated that "retail investors are a major factor in this market volatility. They were waiting for the right time to enter the market due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)." The U.S. waits for the inflation and job data while Micron reports earnings in a few weeks. Hyundai Motors and its sister automaker Kia Corp both saw gains of 1.66% and respectively 1.97%. POSCO Holdings rose 0.93% while Samsung BioLogics rose 2.04%. KOSPI is up 102.96% this year. The?won is down 6.2% this year against the dollar. On the money and debt markets, September futures for 3-year Treasury bonds lost 0.04 points to 102.99. The benchmark 10-year Korean bond yield increased by 0.6 basis point to 4.184%, while the most liquid 3-year Korean Treasury Bond yield rose by 1.1 basis points. Foreigners sold shares worth 626.9 billion won. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Editing by Jacqueline Wong
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Pharrell Williams, designer at Louis Vuitton, borrows California surf culture during Paris heatwave
Pharrell, the Louis Vuitton designer and pop singer, created a giant artificial water fall to set a backdrop for his spring-summer 2027 collection. The launch of Paris Fashion Week took place on Tuesday as a heatwave that broke all records engulfed large parts of France. As they walked on the sand, models wore a mix of denims, hoodies, and flashy jackets. Others carried tiny monogrammed bags while others carried surfboards. The show was heavily influenced by American surf and skate culture. The silhouette of many looks included low-cut sneakers with white rubber soles and laces that resembled Californian lifestyle brand Vans. During the show outside Cite Universitaire in southern Paris, staff and viewers were seen shivering and gasping. Around 9 pm local time, temperatures remained above 30 C. Paris' runway shows began as temperatures in western and central France, which includes Paris, reached around 40 C. This forced tourist attractions like the Eiffel tower to close. So far, the heat has not caused any show cancellations. Fashion Week's organising body FHCM said in an email that some labels such as Dior and Rick Owens changed their schedules so they could hold morning shows. A spokesperson for LVMH's flagship Louis Vuitton brand said that the company had increased water supplies and 'increased breaks' ahead of Williams' performance to improve working conditions. Classic styles included dark green suits and coats, and pullovers with patches of leather. The?Paris men's fashion week?will be followed by a?high couture week?starting on July 6. Pierpaolo's first Balenciaga couture show is among the most anticipated. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Tassilo Humble)
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The court lifts the deadline for Trump's administration to install US park exhibits in time for the 250th anniversary
A U.S. court of appeals ruled Tuesday that President Donald Trump's government does not have to restore dozens of exhibits it has removed from national parks, including those on slavery and climate changes. A unanimous three-judge panel from the Boston-based First U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily halted a judge’s July 3 deadline that the National Park Service must reinstall exhibits taken down under a Trump Directive targeting displays "inappropriately disparaging Americans past or present." Angel Kelley, a U.S. district judge in Boston, concluded that the displays had been removed as part the illegal effort by the administration to "rewrite the nation's?history with a whiteout pen." Critics accuse Trump of erasing parts of American history in order to fit what they say is his false narrative about the country. The 1st Circuit has declined to temporarily pause Kelley’s decision to halt Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s implementation of Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order. The 1st Circuit panel of judges, made up of three Democratic presidents appointed judges, stated that it is still evaluating whether Kelley's June 12 ruling should be put on hold until the appeals process and will rule "promptly." Kelley was involved in a lawsuit brought by the National Parks Conservation Association and American Association for State and Local History, who contested the legality and removal of exhibits. In a statement released jointly, the two called the 1st Circuit decision to extend the deadline "disappointing". The decision of the administration to not reinstall or reinstate censored material, especially in advance our nation's 250th anniversary celebrations, is a disservice both to park visitors this summer and to broader American public, they stated. The U.S. Department of Interior overseeing the National Park Service did not respond immediately to a comment request. Trump's executive orders took aim at what he termed a "revisionist" movement that painted the United States in a negative light, portraying it as "inherently racist or sexist or oppressive, and otherwise irredeemably flawed." It also directed changes to be made across all parks. In accordance with Trump's directive, at least 51 exhibits were removed or thrown away from 37 different sites. One exhibit was at the former U.S. Presidential mansion located in Philadelphia's Independence National Historical Park, which described the ownership of slaves by George Washington. Kelley, appointed by Democratic president Joe Biden, ordered that the signs and exhibits be restored "by the 250th anniversary" to honor the remarkable achievements of the United States. The anniversary falls on July 4th. The U.S. Justice Department filed an appeal, calling Kelley’s ruling judicial abuse. It said that complying with Kelley’s deadline of July 3, to reinstall all the software, would be "herculean" and "unmanageable."
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U.S. Senate votes against Trump's war on Iran
The Republican-majority U.S. Senate passed legislation Tuesday that would halt U.S. military action against Iran. However, it is not clear what impact it will have on the war while President Donald Trump's Administration negotiates a deal with the Islamic Republic. The Senate voted in favor of a concurrent resolution that was passed by the House of Representatives earlier this month. This reflects a growing concern among Trump's Republicans over the unpopular conflict which began on February 28, despite the majority of Republicans voting for it. Four 'Republicans joined all Democrats except one in voting for the resolution. ?Two Republicans did not vote. The resolution directs Trump that U.S. forces should not be involved in hostilities against or with Iran. However, it is likely to only remain a symbolic vote. The 1973 War Powers Act states that the measure is not sent to Trump for his signature. The White House, however, has maintained that the 'legislation' is not constitutional and therefore not binding. Legal experts say it's likely that the court will decide this contested question. Scott Anderson, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and senior editor for Lawfare, said that "the executive 'branch' will likely ignore this on constitutional grounds. It is not clear who would have the standing to sue in order to enforce it." (Reporting and editing by Sanjeev Mglani; Additional reporting by Richard Cowan)
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Gold drops as rate-hike betting boosts dollar to an all-time high
The?U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday, causing gold prices to fall. The dollar rose to a new high, despite the fact that oil prices were lower due to progress in U.S. Iran talks. By 1:50 pm, spot gold had fallen 1.4% to $4131.24 an ounce. ET (1750 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled 1.3% lower, at $4149.40 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest rate in over a year, on Tuesday. This made gold more expensive for buyers from abroad. "Right Now gold and silver don't really look to the Middle East." Bob?Haberkorn is a senior market strategist for StoneX. He believes that investors are more interested in what the Federal Reserve announced last week. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, has sent hawkish signals about inflation to combat. This has prompted investors to increase their bets. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a rate increase in December. This is up from the 61% they expected before the Fed's meeting last week. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but it suffers in high interest rate environments as the precious metal offers no return. The United States has waived its sanctions against Iran for 60-days starting Monday. This is after the first round of talks in the context of a new peace agreement. However, hostilities continue to take place in Lebanon, according to officials. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance had earlier said that talks with Iranian officials held in Switzerland laid the foundations for a final peace agreement, and that tanker traffic through the previously clogged Strait of Hormuz was increasing. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1% Tuesday. Investors now await U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Spending data, is due Thursday. This will provide further hints on monetary policy. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Dita Pujara) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Diti Pujara)
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Stocks drop as chipmakers, tech and other stocks slump due to rate bets
Global stocks fell on Monday, with a selloff of technology and semiconductors shares leading the way. Investors were bracing for a more aggressive Federal Reserve response to inflation. Wall Street saw the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lead losses. Semiconductors?and?some megacaps were also under pressure. Nvidia shares fell 3%, Tesla shares dropped 5%. Shares of SpaceX recovered from their initial declines and traded up 1.6%. Chip stocks fell 7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.06%. The S&P 500 dropped 1%. And the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.6%. Amanda Agati is the chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. The STOXX600 index fell 0.51% in Europe, due to losses among semiconductor and chip-equipment manufacturers. Seoul's KOSPI Index plunged by 10% in its biggest one-day decline since March. MSCI's global stock index fell by 1.26%. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said that questions are being raised about AI infrastructure spending. This is especially true as some corporations plan to sell their equity in order to fund expansion. Time will tell if it is just another "buy the dip" opportunity or a sign of even worse things to follow. OIL RESISTS BELOW $80 BARREL Oil price remained "subdued", with Brent crude remaining below $80 per barrel, as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz grew and physical market prices approached pre-conflict prices. After the first round talks in a tentative peace agreement reached last week to end more than three months war, the U.S. has agreed to?waive sanctions on Iran? for 60 days? starting Monday. Investors are now more focused on the inflation outlook and central banks policy, rather than lower oil prices. The markets now expect the Fed under Kevin Warsh to take a more firm stance on inflation. In recent sessions, U.S. Treasury rates have surged. The 2-year yields, which are highly sensitive to expectations of interest rate changes -- reached 16-month highs. Both 2-year and 10-year yields on Tuesday were slightly lower than the previous day, at 4.20% apiece. Investors are close to fully pricing in an interest rate increase by September, according to the money markets. In this context, the dollar has reached its highest level in a year against a basket currency. The data does not indicate that rates should be raised. It seems they should pause and wait to see how the Middle East conflict-driven inflation data will change as a result of the negotiations. The Yen is at a 40-Year Low Money markets have now priced in a rate increase by September. This has helped push the dollar index up to its highest level for a year against a basket. The index rose 0.32% last to 101.33. The strength of the dollar has had a 'heavy impact on the Japanese yen. It hovered at a low level for 40 years, 161.53 per $1. Investors reduced expectations of further European Central Bank tightening, and the euro fell below $1.14. It was its lowest level since a year. Satsuki Katayama, Japanese Finance Minister, said that she had discussed global financial markets on Monday with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent. Analysts said this could indicate a rising 'risk of intervention for the support of the yen. The pound in Britain fell by 0.35%, to $1.3201, on the 10th anniversary. Sterling remained under pressure following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir starmer, which paved the way for a smooth transition to Andy Burnham. Gold fell 1.5%, to $4,127 per ounce, as expectations of higher interest rates reduced the appeal for non-yielding investments. Bitcoin fell by 2.95%, to $62,475.67. Ethereum fell 4.12% to $1.661.63.
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Gold drops as rate-hike betting boosts dollar to an all-time high
The?U.S. dollar?hit a one-year high on Tuesday, outweighing support from lower oil prices amid progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Dollar?hit a year-high on expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This outweighed support from lower oil prices in light of progress in U.S. Iran talks. By 11:45 am, spot gold had fallen by 1.2% to $4138.79 an ounce. ET (1545 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell by 1.1% to $4156.40 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest levels in over a year, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. Right now, gold and silver don't look to the Middle East. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist for StoneX. He said that they are more interested in what the Federal Reserve announced last week. Investors have increased their bets for interest rate hikes after Kevin 'Warsh, the new Fed chair, made hawkish comments about inflation. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a rate increase by December. This is up from the 61% they expected before the Fed's meeting last week. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but it suffers in high interest rate environments as the precious metal offers no return. The United States lifted sanctions against Iran for a period of 60 days, starting Monday, after the first round of talks in the context of a new peace agreement. However, hostilities continued in Lebanon, according to officials. Earlier, ?U.S. Vice President JDVance said that talks with Iranian officials had been a success in Switzerland, and laid the foundations for a "final peace agreement". He added that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1% Tuesday. Investors now await U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption?Expenditures, is due on Thursday. This data will provide further clues?on monetary policies. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Aanda and Dita Pujara) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Diti Pujara)
The season of macro forecasts is upon us.
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers! As we enter the final month of 2018, it's time to look at the 2026 market forecasts. It's hard to find U.S. equity bulls but forecasts come with a lot of qualifiers. This is understandable, given the uncertainty surrounding an artificial intelligence boom. AI adoption may really take off in 2019, but according to ROI's editor-at-large Mike Dolan, U.S. growth will likely be constrained by the 150-year trendline of 2%, especially if technology innovation is hampered by supply chain bottlenecks or labor market bottlenecks. The U.S. labour market is as clear as mud. The U.S. private payrolls in November were negative 32,000, which is well below the consensus and represents the largest drop in over two and a quarter years. The number of Americans submitting new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in more than three year. A slice of the consumer delinquency data suggests that the U.S. economy might not be as grim as it seems despite the K-shaped economic model. Moreover, the fears that foreign investors will lose interest in U.S. stock markets may be unfounded. In recent months, the inflow of overseas private sector funds into U.S. stock markets has reaccelerated to record levels. Now the big question is if this trend can continue into next year. In Asia, Japan's 10-year bond yield reached its highest level since 2007, rising over 25 basis points in just four weeks. This was happening as Prime Minister Takaichi sought to calm investor fears about her $137-billion spending plan. The weakened yen is still hovering around 155 per dollar, close to the upper end of its long-term range. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ, believes that the currency's apparent excessive weakness could be a ticking bomb. In the energy markets, OPEC+ announced that they would maintain production levels through the first three months. The market is complicated by the uncertainty around sanctioned volume. OPEC+'s changes to the oil production quotas could lead to a surge of investments in upstream. In the meantime, Europe prepares to eliminate Russian imports from its gas market by 2027. Gavin Maguire, ROI's energy transition columnist, explains the countries that will be affected. Copper continues to be a hot commodity, but it does not necessarily mean that global manufacturing will increase in line with this trend by 2026. Next week's main event will be the Federal Reserve meeting. Fed-watchers are paying close attention to how many dissents there are, because this could indicate the growing divisions within an organization that has been known for its consensus. But the real story of the Fed is Donald Trump's choice for next chair. Mike Dolan says that if White House advisor Kevin Hassett, as Trump hinted at, is chosen - the markets will be watching his every word.
Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me via
CLYDE RUSSELL: You do not need to be a chess expert to understand the story of Sarwagya Kushwaha. She is the youngest chess player in history to have earned an official FIDE ranking before the age four.
RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. A picture speaks a thousand. This is why I suggest you look at the stunning collection of 'top photographs of 2025', which was selected from the over 1.6 million images released to clients in this year. What a year...
GAVIN MAGUIRE is the ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist. This high-def, updated map of U.S. Data Center Infrastructure created by the Chief Cartographer at the newly renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)is a work of art. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy26/98020.jpg
JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: AI is experiencing a speculative boom in the U.S. and around the world. Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli, professors of economics, examine Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes” to get a feel for where this might go. The 1978 book raises three important questions that are still relevant today.
MIKE DOLAN is the Editor-at-Large for ROI. It's rare to find a podcast about 'r*! This Brookings podcast, which will be released next week in conjunction with the Fed's meeting, shows how recent shocks may have caused this theoretical 'neutral rate' of interest to creep higher after years on decline.
JAMIE MCGEEVER is a columnist for ROI Markets. Michael Burry, the author of 'The Big Short,' doesn't do much media other than his often cryptic postings on X – and interviews are rarer still. Fast forward through 6-7 minutes worth of ads and introduction, and you'll find an interview with Michael Lewis on the Against the Rules podcast.
ANNA SZYMANSKI is the editor-in-charge of ROI. We have just launched a Morning Bid podcast that will be available both in audio and video. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear ROI editor-at large Mike Dolan, along with other journalists, discuss the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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(source: Reuters)