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Stocks in MORNING BIDDING EUROPE take a break

Stocks in MORNING BIDDING EUROPE take a break

Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

Investors have come to terms with the fact that valuations are too high.

Wall Street was down for a second consecutive day, and this provided little direction to Asia. Stocks here stayed mostly in tight ranges. The exception was the Chinese bluechips which were up by 0.9% and caught up with the global AI boom.

The EuroSTOXX futures are also little changed. Wall Street futures rose 0.2%.

It could have been rebalancing flows at the end of the month or quarter - after all, Asian shares had rallied by 9% in a quarter and Japan's Nikkei was up 13%. It could also be that Fed speakers are sounding more cautious about the prospect of rate cuts.

The Fed is still expected to cut rates in October by 92%, but the amount of easing that was previously anticipated has dropped from 125bps to 100bps.

Mary Daly, the San Francisco Fed president, echoed central bankers in saying that while rate cuts were needed they are not yet certain when to occur. John Williams from New York will also be speaking, as will other Fed officials during the day. We will see how many doves are there under Donald Trump's unprecedented scrutiny.

Next week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to begin interviewing candidates for the Fed chair position that will replace Jerome Powell.

Dollar's short-term technical outlook remains dim. The bounce is still leaving yen bulls in a state of shock after traders took positions to buy long yen following last week's Bank of Japan policy meeting.

The Swiss Franc hit a new high against the yen, while the euro was hovering just above a one-year record at 174.66.

The next week will bring us the weekly U.S. unemployment claims, the final estimate of the U.S. second quarter GDP and, finally, the crucial Personal Consumption Expenditures on Friday.

A sharp increase in unemployment claims, which is of particular importance given the recent focus on the labour markets, would support the case for two more cuts to be made this year. In addition, a positive result would boost the dollar and push short-term rates higher.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.

Data on the U.S. economy, including weekly unemployment claims, durable goods, trade and more

Six Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak.

U.S. Treasury auctions off $44 billion in 7-year notes

(source: Reuters)