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IEA: World oil demand will continue to grow this decade despite China's peak in 2027

IEA: World oil demand will continue to grow this decade despite China's peak in 2027

The International Energy Agency announced on Tuesday that global oil demand would continue to grow until the end of the decade, despite a peak in China's top importer in 2027. Cheaper gasoline and a slower adoption of electric vehicles in the United States will support oil consumption. The IEA which advises industrialised nations did not alter its prediction that oil demand would peak in this decade. This is a stark contrast to the view of the producer group, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, who say consumption will continue to grow and have not predicted a peak.

A table from the IEA annual report in Paris shows that oil demand will reach a peak of 105.6 million barrels a day (bpd), by 2029, and then begin to decline in 2030. Global production capacity will rise by over 5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 114.7 millions bpd in 2030, according to the IEA's annual report.

Conflict between Israel and Iran highlighted the risks to Middle East oil supplies, which helped send oil prices up by 5% on Friday to over $74 per barrel. The IEA stated that the latest forecasts indicate ample supplies until 2030 if no major disruptions occur.

Fatih Bilo, IEA's Executive Director, said in a press release that the oil market will be adequately supplied in the coming years. Birol stated that recent events have brought to light the geopolitical threats to oil supply.

China's oil consumption has slowed down after decades of being the world leader in global demand. It is also facing economic challenges and a major shift to electric vehicles. According to the IEA, oil consumption in the world's second largest economy will peak in 2027 due to a boom in EV sales, high-speed rail, and trucks that run on natural gas. The IEA predicted in February that China's demand may already have peaked for fuels used for air and road transport.

The IEA has said that China's total oil demand in 2030 will only be marginally higher than it was in 2024. This is compared to the growth of 1 million bpd predicted in last year's IEA report.

The IEA reported that lower gasoline prices in the United States and slower EV adoption have increased the 2030 oil forecast by 1.1 millions bpd compared to the previous prediction. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who returned to office in 2017, has been demanding lower oil prices from OPEC and taking aim at EVs by signing resolutions that were approved by legislators. (Editing by Tomasz Janovowski)

(source: Reuters)