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Sources say that the new Japanese PM is planning a large-scale economic stimulus in order to combat inflation.
Sanae Takaichi, the new Japanese Prime Minister, is working on an economic stimulus package which will likely exceed last year's $82 billion in order to help families combat inflation. Government sources familiar with this plan told Reuters that it is expected to be more than double what was spent by households to fight inflation. Takaichi, who advocates big fiscal expenditures, took office Tuesday. This is her first major economic initiative. It reflects her commitment to "responsible fiscal policy". Sources declined to identify themselves because it was a private matter. They said that the plan will be built on three pillars - measures to combat inflation, investments in industries of growth, and national safety. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan's shares reversed its losses on Wednesday after the report and rose. Meanwhile, the yen was unchanged and had only made gains in the morning. The Takaichi government plans to quickly abolish the provisional gas tax rate as part of its core measures for inflation relief. The program also aims at expanding local government grants with an emphasis on small and medium-sized businesses that cannot benefit from the existing tax incentives to increase wages. As the government concentrates on economic development, it will include investments in sectors of growth such as artificial Intelligence and semiconductors. Sources said that the exact size of the package was still being finalised. The announcement could come as soon as next month. In order to fund these measures, the government has begun drafting the supplementary budget that will cover the current fiscal year up until March. It is hoped it will be passed during the next extraordinary session of parliament. If the additional spending exceeds expectations, it may be necessary for the government to issue bonds to cover deficits, which raises questions about how best to balance economic growth and fiscal discipline.
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Morning bid Europe-Inflation will wipe out UK's rate-cutting bets
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. The Bank of England's (BoE), which is expected to cut rates again this year, will likely be disappointed if the consumer prices in Britain are higher than expected. The BoE expects the inflation rate in September to be 4%, which is the highest of all the big economies around the world and twice the BoE target. The markets currently price in a chance of nearly 15% that the central banks will ease rates by 25 basis point at their November meeting. A positive surprise in the Wednesday figures will almost certainly wipe out these bets. This would also cloud the central bank's rate outlook into the end of the year, as policymakers are divided between those who wish to take aggressive action in order to counter the slowing down of the job market and others who are concerned about the persistent inflation pressure. A majority, however, is in favour a gradual rate cut. The rapid pace of UK price increases, which continue to put pressure on households and raise borrowing costs, adds to the challenges facing Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. She has promised to ease cost-of living pressures and accelerate economic growth. Reeves, who is trying to reach her fiscal goals and avoid disappointing investors that have already driven up borrowing costs in Britain sharply, has indicated she will increase taxes and reduce spending as part of her budget plan for November 26. Investors were also reeling in other markets from the sudden drop in gold prices that has stopped the metal's explosive rally, despite the lack of an obvious cause. Asian shares also declined, but Japan's Nikkei recovered from its early losses and traded higher following a report that Sanae Takaichi is preparing a stimulus package for the economy that will likely exceed last year’s 13.9 trillion ($92.19) billion yen to help consumers tackle inflation. Money managers from around the world are returning to Japan's debt and stock markets because of its reflationist promises and to diversify away from more expensive U.S. or European markets. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. UK Inflation (September) - Barclays, Tesla earnings
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Oil prices rise more than 1% due to supply risks and US-China trade negotiations
The oil prices rose for the second day in a row on Wednesday. They increased by more than 1 percent, boosted by supply risks related to sanctions and hopes of a U.S. China trade agreement. Investors also took note of news that the U.S. was seeking oil deliveries for its strategic reserves. Brent crude futures were up 94 cents or 1.5% to $62.26 a barrel as of 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures were up 92 cents or 1.6% to $58.16. Oil prices have recovered from a five-month low, which was reached on Monday. Producers increased supply and trade tensions dampened demand. News that the summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin had been put on hold, as well as fears of disruption fuelled by Western pressures on Asian oil purchases from Russia, led to a supply risk. Mukesh S. Sahdev, CEO and founder of energy market consulting firm XAnalysts, said that despite the general bearish sentiment, a glut of oil and weak demand in the Middle East, Venezuela, Colombia, and Russia still prevents the oil price from falling below $60. Investors monitored the tension between Venezuela, an important oil producer and the U.S. The U.S. attacks against Venezuela in international water are a dangerous escalation, and they amount to "extrajudicial killings", a group independent United Nations experts stated on Tuesday. As part of the campaign to combat a "narcoterrorist threat" emanating from Venezuela, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered strikes against at least six vessels that were suspected by the U.S. of transporting drugs in the Caribbean. Investors will also be closely monitoring the progress of U.S. China trade talks, as officials from both nations are due to meet in Malaysia this week. Trump said Monday he expected to negotiate a fair deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping whom he intends to meet next week in South Korea. Trump's comments on trade negotiations are likely to provide some support for the market. The cancellation of the Trump and Putin summit is also likely to provide some support, said ING commodities analysts on Wednesday. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to confirm that U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate stock levels fell in the last week. In a note to clients on Wednesday, ANZ analysts found that oil was also in favor of a U.S. strategy for replenishing strategic reserves. The U.S. Department of Energy announced on Tuesday that it plans to purchase 1 million barrels of oil to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is hoping to benefit from the relatively low prices of oil to do so. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman in Singapore and Christopher Cushing; Siyi Liu, Jeslyn Lerh)
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Vard Picks SMST to Supply Equipment for North Star’s New SOVs
Dutch offshore equipment supplier SMST has secured a new contract from Norwegian shipbuilder Vard for the delivery of two sets of mission equipment to be installed on an additional two of North Star’s newbuild Service Operation Vessels (SOVs).These vessels are part of a long-term charter agreement between shipowner and operator North Star and energy company RWE.SMST previously supplied similar equipment for the first two CSOVs, the Grampian Eagle and Grampian Kestrel, which are also set to operate for RWE.RWE, North Star Ink Long-Term SOV Charter AgreementsFor these new hybrid-powered SOVs, safe and efficient transfer of technicians working offshore is ensured through the integration of SMST’s Telescopic Access Bridge (TAB) L2, a motion compensated gangway equipped with advanced automation packages.Additionally, the inclusion of a 5t Motion Compensated Crane will enable streamlined and reliable cargo handling operations.“We are proud to contribute to such a significant collaboration between two leading industry players. Above all, we value the continued partnership with North Star and VARD’s ongoing trust in SMST, now reflected in the selection of our equipment for a fifth and sixth vessel,” said Jochem Tuinstra, Sales Manager at SMST.
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Offshore Industry Majors Join Forces for Next-Gen Subsea Flowline Tech
A consortium of offshore energy companies including TotalEnergies, Equinor, Aker BP, DeepOcean, Tenaris, and LS Cable & System has launched a joint industry project to commercialize a new subsea flowline heating technology designed to cut costs and carbon emissions related to deepwater oil and gas subsea tie-back projects.The system, named FlowHeat, aims to lower manufacturing and installation costs by up to 35% and reduce carbon emissions by 30% through separating pipeline and heating installation processes.Subsea tiebacks are key to connecting remote wells to processing facilities, but cold, deepwater environments pose challenges such as wax and hydrate formation. FlowHeat simplifies the heating process by allowing the installation of power cables after the pipeline is laid, or as an alternative, integrating them into a reeled pipeline.“The patented design represents a breakthrough in subsea pipeline heating, offering significant cost savings, improved efficiency, and environmental benefits. The key advantages include reduced topside weight, lower power consumption, and less complex installation. The cable is also repairable and enables real-time monitoring via optical fiber,” said Andries Ferla, DeepOcean’s Technology Director and project owner.The system can be deployed after pipeline installation and is suitable for tiebacks of up to 30 km, potentially extending to 50 km, and water depths reaching 3,000 meters. It allows heating installation using smaller remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), reducing project complexity and vessel requirements.“After a very important phase progressing from idea to proof-of-concept, TotalEnergies is very enthusiastic to enter in a full-scale validation with this group of highly skilled specialists, for qualification of the technology. Together, we believe we can unlock longer tiebacks and access to remote reserves,” added Florent Boemare, Offshore Solutions and Technology Research Manager at TotalEnergies.Initial trials have demonstrated the system’s electrical efficiency and reliable cable installation over obstacles and long distances. FlowHeat can be deployed from various vessel types, supporting a 30% emissions reduction by optimizing pipeline use, cutting installation days, and allowing smaller vessels to be used.Industry participants see strong market potential on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and globally, with more than 300 potential electrically heated flowline projects identified by 2030 in regions such as Brazil, the United States, and Africa.Each company brings distinct expertise - DeepOcean leads project management and subsea integration; Tenaris provides advanced thermal insulation coating solutions; LS Cable & System contributes its experience in power and fiber-optic cables; and TotalEnergies, Equinor, and Aker BP offer operator-level support, infrastructure, and validation capacity.The project has received funding from the Research Council of Norway to conduct pilot testing under real operating conditions, supporting the technology’s qualification and eventual commercialization.
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Shanghai copper prices fall on weak China demand and strong dollar
Shanghai copper fell on Wednesday. The gains made in the previous session were lost due to a weakening of Chinese demand, resulting from high prices, and a stronger US dollar. As of 0302 GMT, the most active contract for copper on Shanghai Futures Exchange had fallen 0.63% to 84,990 Yuan ($11,931.77) a metric ton. The two sessions of gains were halted by the strong industrial production in China and new attempts to ease Sino U.S. trade tensions. The benchmark three-month futures for copper fell 0.15%, to $10608 per ton. The red metal's demand is muted by the low acceptance of high prices from downstream buyers. It's a good thing the copper price was corrected, because it might encourage some real consumption by downstream buyers. "They were not buying anything before," said a Shanghai copper trader, who requested anonymity because the person was not authorized to talk to the media. The copper price was also affected by the stronger dollar, despite Wednesday's slight decline. The price of commodities in greenbacks is weakened by a strong dollar, as buyers who use other currencies are forced to pay more. Traders also closely followed the China-U.S. Trade Conflict in the lead-up to a meeting planned between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping in South Korea next week. Copper prices are still held at a minimum by the supply shortage caused by mine disruptions. Any decline is therefore limited. Nickel was the only metal to lose 0.30%. Zinc and lead also remained unchanged. Zinc and lead, among other LME metals gained 0.23% while aluminium and nickel were barely changed.
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Gold continues to fall from its record high due to profit-booking and trade optimism
Gold prices continued to fall on Wednesday as investors took profits from the recent bullion rally, while they awaited U.S. inflation figures due later in the week. As of 0236 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.4%, at $4,109.19 an ounce. Bullion dropped more than 5% Tuesday, its steepest drop since August 2020. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 0.4%, to $4124.10 an ounce. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that the "simmering" tensions in trade between the U.S. This is a simple technical repositioning of a market which clearly needed a pullback following an extended move over $4,000. I believe we have seen the worst day-to-day fluctuations as dips are still likely to be purchased." U.S. president Donald Trump said he expects to reach a fair deal with Chinese president Xi Jinping next week when they meet in South Korea. He also played down the risk of a conflict over Taiwan. The Mint newspaper in India reported that New Delhi and Washington were close to a long-stalled agreement which would reduce U.S. import tariffs from 50% to 15% or 16%. The gold price has risen by 56% in the past year. It reached a record high of $4,381.21 yesterday, thanks to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. Investors are now looking forward to Friday's release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for September. This will provide more clues about the Federal Reserve’s path towards interest rate cuts. Due to the U.S. shutdown, this report was delayed. According to a survey of economists, the Fed will cut its key interest rate next week by 25 basis points and again in December. However, opinions are still divided about where rates will end up by next year. Silver spot edged up 0.1% to $48,82 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.5% to 1,528.15 while palladium rose 0.7% to $1418.09. (Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Iron ore prices rise on signs of eased US-China trade tension
Iron ore prices rose on Wednesday as signs of easing U.S. China trade tensions, and the expectation that Beijing will unveil more stimulus measures to boost economic growth, outweighed worries about a rising ore supply or a decreasing steel demand. After U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Monday that he expects to reach a fair deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, hopes grew of a deescalation in the trade spat. Trump said that he will visit China in early 2019, at Beijing's request. By 0207 GMT, the most-traded iron ore contract for January on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 0.78% to $775 yuan (US$108.80) a metric ton. As of 0157 GMT, the benchmark November iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.42% at $104 per ton. Analyst Zhuo Guiqiu at Jinrui Futures said that the rise was driven by a macroeconomic factor, as a reduction in U.S. - China trade tensions is expected. This has sparked heightened risk-on sentiment. Investors also bet on more China stimulus after a series of disappointing data. The Communist Party's four-day meeting behind closed doors that began Monday will culminate in an outline of the next five-year strategy. The price increases were tempered by the expectation of a growing supply in the remainder of the year and the seasonal slowdown of steel demand. Vale, the largest iron ore miner in the world, produced 94.4 millions metric tons (the equivalent of steelmaking material) during the third quarter. This is a 3.8% increase on an annual basis and the highest production since the final three months of 2018 Rio Tinto (RIO.L) has also stocked up 2 million tonnes of high-grade ore in Guinea at its Simandou Project for a shipment scheduled to take place mid-November. Both coke and coal, which are used in the production of steel, grew by 0.59%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. Rebar gained 0.33%. Hot-rolled coil increased by 0.47%. Wire rod gained 0.21%. Stainless steel gained 0.28%. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Colleen Waye)
Dollars slide on trade and tax concerns
As June began, the U.S. Dollar plunged to its lowest level since six weeks. Concerns about U.S. Tariffs were back in the spotlight after the legal confusion of last week and rising military tensions around the world.
The euro was the leader, unfazed by the prospect that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates again on Thursday. The new German chancellor Friedrich Merz will visit Washington on Thursday to meet U.S. president Donald Trump as trade negotiations between Europe and America continue to be closely watched.
The dollar is susceptible to fears of foreign capital flight as markets are still concerned about the U.S. Fiscal Bill that is currently being debated in the Senate. This bill gives the administration the ability to tax companies and investors who come from countries with 'unfair' foreign taxes.
On Monday, the focus was back on tariffs. It seemed that President Donald Trump would push for levies in some way despite last week's legal opposition.
After the weekend, Trump's plan of doubling duties on import steel and aluminum from Wednesday to 50% hit the greenback as Beijing retaliated against allegations that it had violated an agreement regarding critical minerals shipments.
The weekend was marked by geopolitical tensions of great importance and bellicose threats. Gold rose.
Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, warned his Indo-Pacific allies on Saturday to increase their spending on defence. Ukraine-Russian war continues to rage. Ukrainian drones continue to strike dozens of Russian aircraft deep within Russian territory. Gaza's conflict is not ending.
The major countries are building weapons at a rapid pace. Britain is expanding its fleet of nuclear-powered attack subs as part a review of defence, aimed at preparing the country for modern warfare and countering the Russian threat.
The oil price rose by about 3% Monday, after the producer group OPEC+ maintained its output increase in July at the level of the previous two month.
There was some good news on the interest rates front in a week that saw a lot of data from the U.S. Labor Market.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that further rate cuts are possible in the second part of the year. Waller said that since the rise in inflation pressures linked to Trump's increased import taxes is unlikely to persist, he supports looking past any tariff effects to near-term-inflation in setting policy rates.
As expected, China's manufacturing sector shrank in May for the second consecutive month.
After Karol Nawrocki, the nationalist candidate of the opposition won the second round in the presidential elections, stocks in Poland fell by 1.4%.
Before Monday's bell rang, U.S. stocks futures were down by about half a percentage, and so too were stocks in Europe, Japan, and other parts of the world. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have risen again.
The column today looks at this week's major monetary decision made in Europe. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will lower rates for an eighth time during the cycle, but the euro has risen regardless.
EURO CONUNDRUM: ECB FACES SURGING EURO DISCONNORDRUM
The euro continues to rise while the European Central Bank is cutting rates. This is because a capital reversal in the US has thrown off the relative rate shifts, and could force the ECB to further ease.
It is expected that the ECB will lower its main lending rate to 2% on Thursday, which would be half of what it was a year ago at its highest point and less than half of the Federal Reserve's equivalent. The central bank has also returned to a level it considers to be 'neutral,' meaning that the rate does not either stimulate or rein in the economy.
For the first time since almost two years, real, or inflation adjusted, ECB interest rates will return to zero.
It's amazing that the euro, after eight consecutive ECB rate cuts and the prospect of zero real rates or even negative ones in the future, has risen more than 10% against a dollar basket and 5% against a currency basket based on the major trading partners of the Euro Zone.
The nominal effective euro index has reached record levels, while the "real" version is at its highest level in over 10 years.
The euro/dollar rate has risen despite no change in the difference between the yields of two-year government bonds on either side. This is usually a reliable indicator for changes in the exchange rate. This trend is largely due to Donald Trump's trade wars, the fear of capital flight out of dollar assets because of a variety of concerns regarding U.S. institutions and policies, and Germany's historical fiscal boost.
The ECB is in a quandary if, as many believe, even a fraction (or fractions) of the trillions dollars of European capital invested in the United States are indeed returning home. How can it manage both the deflationary and domestic demand effects of a currency increase that is so rapid? The euro is not affected by the possibility of future rate cuts. The majority of ECB observers expect one or even two more rate cuts after Thursday, while money markets are predicting a 'terminal' rate of around 1.75%. This is the low end in the ECB range estimated as 'neutral. If the majority of capital repatriation is from equity investments in the U.S., lower ECB interest rates could even increase the outflows by boosting growth prospects for cheaper European stocks. Higher borrowing in Germany and across Europe should also sustain fixed income returns over the long term, increasing the pool of "safe" investments.
'GLOBAL EUROMOMENT'
The ECB may protest about 'excessive gains' in the euro, but the impact could be limited unless they are prepared to back up their words with actions. There is also a chance that it could backfire because of the reasons mentioned above.
The ECB is encouraging investment and the euro as a currency of reserve, in part, to meet the massive capital requirements for retooling the military, digital, and energy sectors.
Christine Lagarde, ECB head, said in a speech last week in Berlin that there is an opportunity for a global euro moment, where the single currency can be a viable alternative to dollars, bringing immense benefits to the region if the governments are able strengthen the financial and security infrastructure of the bloc.
A soaring currency rate during a trade conflict may seem like a good thing, but it will cause some concern among the major exporting countries in the region.
ECB hawks, doves, and others will have to decide whether the continued easing of monetary policy to counter disinflationary risks is only stoking domestic inflation in the long run. Not to mention the fiscal boost that's coming next year.
It is clear that the ECB will take into account in its new economic projections, due to be released on Thursday, the 7% increase in the euro/dollar rate and the near 10% decline in the global oil price since the last set of forecasts made in early March.
Morgan Stanley economists believe that even if central bank raises core inflation forecasts, headline inflation could still fall short of the 2% target between mid-2025 and early 2027. This is even though the GDP growth outlook for 2025 has been revised upwards.
At this point, it is impossible to make any predictions. Few central banks or major traders have any idea where the U.S. trade war or tariffs will lead.
The ECB is unlikely to be able to cap the Euro, as global trade and investments are a source of anxiety. The ECB is faced with a big dilemma: whether to maintain the status quo or ease up even further.
The chart of the day shows how tariff-related import distortions have distorted U.S. Gross Domestic Product readings this year. Last week, models that track GDP inputs were again jarred when a sharp contraction of the goods trade deficit in April occurred as the front-running imports to beat the tariffs in the 1st quarter faded. According to the Census Bureau of the Commerce Department, with many tariffs in effect, imports plummeted, helping to reduce the goods trade surplus by 46%, to $88 billion. Imports dropped $68 billion, to $276 billion. Exports rose $6.3 to $188.5. If the goods deficit shrinks, the net trade component in GDP calculations could spur significant growth in this quarter. It is similar to how it reduced Q1 GDP by a record-breaking 4.9 percentage points. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s ‘GDPNow’ tracker is now boosted by the trade figures. It sees an impressive 3.8% real GDP increase in Q2. There is still caution. There is caution. Businesses don't appear to be restocking. Wholesale inventories were unchanged last month, and retail stocks fell by 0.1%. Stockpiles are expected to drop dramatically over the rest of the quarter.
Watch today's events
* US manufacturing surveys for May from S&P Global and ISM (0930EDT), as well as April construction spending (1000EDT).
* Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell opens Fed event in Washington. Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Log speak. Chicago Fed President Austan Gollisbee also speaks. Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann also speaks.
* US corporate earnings: Campbell's
The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and therefore, integrity, independence and freedom from bias.
(source: Reuters)