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Dollar struggles as shares struggle on Trump's tariff chaos

Investor sentiment was fragile on Tuesday, as shares were mixed after U.S. president Donald Trump postponed his threatened 50% duty on European Union shipments. This reinforced his unpredictability in his trade policy and made it more difficult for investors to make decisions.

Wall Street and FTSE Futures rose sharply during the Asian session following a holiday that was observed in the U.S.A. and UK at the beginning of the week. However, shares elsewhere reversed the short-lived rise.

Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.9% while FTSE futures gained 0.87%. This indicates a positive opening during the cash session later that day, following Trump's U turn on his threat to impose tariffs of 50% on imports from EU next month.

The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan declined 0.55%, while the EuroStoxx 50 futures fell 0.15%.

Aaron Chwee is the head of wealth advisory for OCBC. He said that while delays in EU tariffs have provided a temporary boost to the futures market, investors are still concerned about trade relationships and economic indicators to come.

Investors will pay close attention to Nvidia's results on Wednesday. The AI leader is expected report a 65.9% increase in revenue for the first quarter.

The Federal Reserve's policymakers are due to speak, and the U.S. PCE core price index for Friday could also provide clues about U.S. interest rates.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Index fell 0.1% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.18%.

China's blue-chip CSI300 index dropped by 0.56%.

Early in the session, yields on super-long Japanese Government Bonds fell. They had fallen from their previous highs following last week's massive sell-off of the bonds.

The yields of bonds, especially those on the long-end, have risen around the globe as concern grows over the growing fiscal deficits among advanced economies led by the U.S.

The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were unchanged on Tuesday. The two-year yield was at last 3.9787%, and the benchmark 10-year rate at 4.4773%.

Loss of Confidence

The dollar was struggling to gain its footing, and headed for the fifth consecutive month of declines versus a basket currency. This would be the longest losing streak against a basket since 2017.

The euro was hovering near a month-high at $1.1379 while the yen remained steady at 142.84 to the dollar.

Trump's reversals on tariffs, and the concerns about the worsening U.S. debt outlook, have weakened sentiment towards U.S. investments and weighed on the dollar.

David Meier is an economist with Julius Baer. He said that a U.S. Dollar regime change may be coming in the future, after the recent peak.

The twin deficits, coupled with the US's erratic policymaking and tense fiscal environment, suggests that the path of least resistance is a weaker USD.

Gold prices have reached record levels this year as investors seek alternatives to the dollar, which has lost some of its appeal as a safe haven.

Gold traded at $3,331.79 per ounce, down 0.3%.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, as investors weighed up the possibility that OPEC+ would decide to increase crude oil production at a meeting this week.

Brent crude futures fell by 0.22%, to $64.60 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 0.33%, to $61.33 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)