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Oil prices fall as markets evaluate the outcome of US-China trade talks
The oil prices in Asian trade fell on Wednesday, as the markets assessed the results of U.S. - China trade talks that have yet to be reviewed and analyzed by President Donald Trump. Weak Chinese demand for oil, along with OPEC+'s production increase, weighed on the market. Brent crude futures fell 19 cents or 0.3% to trade at $66.680 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude dropped 16 cents or 0.3% to $64.82 as of 0318 GMT. U.S. officials and Chinese officials have agreed on a framework for re-establishing their trade truce and resolving China's export limitations on rare earth minerals, magnets and other materials. This was announced by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Tuesday after two days of intensive negotiations in London. "The current price corrections are a combination of technical profit-taking, and caution in the lead-up to (the official) announcement between US-China," said Phillip Nova. Senior market analyst Priyanka Sahdeva. Lutnick said that Trump would be informed of the results before giving his approval. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst at IG. He said, "I think that it will remove some downside risks for crude oil. This includes the Chinese economy, and it will stabilize the U.S. economic ship. Both of these should support crude oil demand and price." OPEC+, on the other hand, plans to increase its oil production in July by 411,000 barrels a day as it seeks to undo production cuts for a 4th consecutive month. However, some analysts do not expect regional demand to absorb these excess barrels. Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities analyst at Capital Economics and a noted expert on oil prices, said that a greater oil demand in OPEC+ countries - notably Saudi Arabia – could offset the additional supply of the group and support the oil price. Brent crude will still fall to $60pb at the end of the year, despite any seasonal boost in demand. The Energy Information Administration (the statistical arm of U.S. Department of Energy) will release its weekly report on U.S. crude oil inventories on Wednesday. According to sources citing American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday, crude stocks dropped by 370,000 barrels in the past week. On Monday, analysts polled by expected that U.S. crude stockpiles would fall by 2 million barrels during the week ending June 6, but distillate and gasoline stocks are likely to rise.
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Analysts' reactions to the US-China Trade Agreement
U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that restrictions on magnets and rare earths should be resolved as a result of a framework for trade and implementing plan with China agreed in London. Li Chenggang, Vice Minister of Commerce in China, said that the two teams agreed to implement their Geneva consensus. They would then take the framework agreed upon back to their respective leaders. Market reaction: The dollar and share markets were cautious, with S&P futures down by 0.3%. They awaited more details and to see if the decision would last. QUOTES: CHRIS WESTON HEAD OF RESEARCH PEPPERSTONE MELBOURNE The devil is in the detail, but the lack reaction indicates that this outcome was fully expected. The Geneva agreement is a good thing, but the fact that there was no reaction on S&P500 Futures and only small movements in CNH and AUD suggests the outcome was expected. Details matter, particularly the amount of rare earths going to the US and the freedom of US chips to go East. But for now, as long as headlines about the talks between the parties are positive, risk assets will be supported. The reaction of Chinese equity markets could be telling, and I suspect US equity Futures will closely track the developments today." LIN GENGWEI is the co-founder and CEO of RAIN TREE PARTNERS in Singapore. Both sides are willing and under pressure to reach a deal. The Sino-U.S. Rivalry will continue to persist despite the temporary success of these talks. The U.S. may ease restrictions on chip exports from China in response to both pressures from Beijing and the domestic semiconductor industry. MARK DONG, CO-FOUNDER OF MINORITY ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG: This is good news for the market. There's now a bottom-line that neither side will cross. Both sides will work to reduce the trade deficit. MICHAEL McCARTHY, CHIEF OFFICER MOOMOO AUSTRALIA SYDNEY "I will be watching how bonds trade on this day in light of it." Currency markets seem to be taking this in stride and equity markets have returned to their all-time highs. Since weeks, the market has been anticipating this deal. It will be positive for the market, as a result of a weaker dollar and higher equities. But it is not a major change. CAROL KONG CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BBANK OF AUSTRALIAN, SYDNEY "I believe in this climate...any hints of progress on a possible trade agreement will be beneficial for the markets. Although details are scarce, I believe that markets will be pleased as long as both sides are in communication. "It's going to be hard for both sides and take a very long time before they can reach a comprehensive agreement." This type of comprehensive agreement usually takes years to reach, so I am skeptical that the framework agreed upon at the London meeting will be comprehensive. "Tensions may have de-escalated temporarily, but will escalate in the coming months." RAY ATTRILL HEAD OF FOREX STRATEGY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK SYDNEY "The devil will be in the detail of what I call a handshake deal and, more importantly, if this can help to reestablish the trust between President Xi, and President Trump which was clearly broken since the Geneva Agreement has been published. It's too early to declare that we are in the process of creating a new, cast-iron US-China trading agreement. "The entire year was littered by positive omens of reaching agreements, but we haven't seen any real progress. Or we've seen a backsliding in things that seemed to be agreed. "Our view remains that, whatever is agreed upon in the next few weeks and months will result in a global situation that is worse than what existed before Trump was elected president. We'll still have a tariff climate that we believe is detrimental to global growth." TONY SYCAMORE MARKET ANALYST IG SYDNEY If we maintain the terms of the Geneva Agreement we will see US tariffs for Chinese goods remaining at 30% for some time, and Chinese tariffs for US goods remaining at 10%. This is a reduction from 145% and 125%, respectively. This would be amazing. "That was the consensus for me...and people are now trying to decide whether they want to buy or sell the US Dollar and I think that is a reflection of this indecision. I thought that Geneva would be extended and it appears we are getting what I expected. This is why the U.S. equity market has held up at this time. They still seem overcooked to me and I think they should pull back. We've had a great run, and now we're pushing up against our February record highs. For me, I think it's a good idea for them to take some time off. It has not exceeded expectations and it is also not below expectations. It's exactly where I expected we would land, and that's the reason I think there's now a bit of uncertainty in US equity futures."
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Iron ore prices rise as traders celebrate Sino-US trade progress
Prices of iron ore futures rose on Wednesday as progress was made in trade negotiations between the two world's largest economies. However, uncertainty about a final deal and a softening in steel demand limited further gains. After two days of intense negotiations in London, officials from the United States, the largest iron ore buyer in the world, and China, which is the second-largest consumer, have agreed on a framework that will put their trade truce on track. This has helped to boost prices by boosting the market sentiment. China buys over two thirds of the global seaborne supply. As of 0219 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 0.86% to 706 yuan (98.24 dollars) per metric ton. The contract lost nearly 1% of its value on Tuesday. The benchmark July Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange rose 0.55% to $94.9 per ton. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have both gained in value, rising by 1.35% and 0.67 percent, respectively. Steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose on higher raw material costs, but weak downstream demand limited gains. Rebar grew by 0.61%. Hot-rolled coil grew by 0.81%. Wire rod climbed 0.55%. Stainless steel fell 0.28%. Galaxy Futures analysts said that "Steel consumption is rapidly declining as we enter the off-peak season." The state-backed China Iron and Steel Association, which is concerned about the stability of the market, called for a boycott on Tuesday to stop the "rat race" style of competition. This was in response to spillover effects from the fierce price war between domestic automakers.
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Gold prices rise as US-China trade tensions persist and investors watch inflation data
The gold price edged up on Wednesday, as investors awaited key U.S. Inflation data to determine the direction of the market. As of 0153 GMT, spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,328.89 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.2% to $3349.80. U.S. officials and Chinese officials have agreed on a framework for re-establishing their trade truce and resolving China's export limitations on rare earth minerals, magnets and other materials. This was announced by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Tuesday after two days of intensive negotiations in London. Lutnick stated that the U.S. delegation plans to present the framework for President Donald Trump's approval before implementation. The Chinese delegation will also seek President Xi Jinping's endorsement. "We know the U.S.-China negotiators are in agreement on a framework,' but uncertainty lingers until Trump or Xi give their approval. This uncertainty is causing gold to rise in the inflation figures, said Matt Simpson a senior analyst with City Index. In April, the U.S. imposed tariffs on China that were tit for tat. This sparked a trade conflict. Both nations agreed, following talks held in Geneva last week, to reduce tariffs from triple-digit levels. The World Bank slashed Tuesday its global growth projection for 2025 to 2.3% from 4.10 percent, citing higher tariffs and increased uncertainty as a "significant headwind". Investors could get more information on the U.S. Federal Reserve policy direction from the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) due at 1230 GMT. Most economists polled believe that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates for a couple more months. This is because there are still risks of inflation resurging due to Trump's policies. Palladium rose 0.3%, to $1063.62, while platinum was down 0.4% at $1216.42. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Alan Barona, and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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London copper market little changed as it awaits US-China Trade Talk details
London copper prices were virtually flat on Wednesday as investors awaited more details following the latest signs that progress had been made in U.S. China trade talks. U.S. officials and Chinese officials have agreed on a framework for re-establishing their trade truce and resolving China's export limitations on rare earth minerals, magnets and other materials. This was announced by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Tuesday after two days of intensive negotiations in London. The London Metal Exchange's three-month contract for copper fell just $2 per ton, to $9,754.5, by 0105 GMT. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract remained unchanged at 79130 yuan ($11,010.16). After the talks, the dollar remained steady in comparison to its major counterparts. Carol Kong, currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, "It's going to be a very long time before both sides can reach a comprehensive agreement." "This type of comprehensive deal is usually reached over years, so I am sceptical that the framework agreed upon at the London meeting will be comprehensive." Aluminium gained 0.3%, to $2,499.5 per ton. Lead gained 0.2%, to $1,985.5. Nickel gained 0.1%, to $15,325. Zinc gained 0.2%, to 21,915 Yuan. Nickel fell by 0.2%, to 121370 Yuan. Lead eased by 0.1%, to 16,835 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS 1230 US Core Consumer Price Index MM, SA, YY; NSA, May 1230 US Core Consumer Price Index MM; SA; YY; May 1230 US Wage Earner May ($1 = 7,1870 Chinese yuan); (Reporting and Editing by Sonia Cheema).
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Markets assess the outcome of US-China trade talks by lowering oil prices
The oil prices dropped in the early hours of Wednesday's trade as the markets assessed the outcome U.S. - China trade talks that President Donald Trump has yet to review. Weak Chinese demand for oil and OPEC+ increased production were also weighing on the market. Brent crude futures fell 24 cents or 0.36% to trade at $66.63 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude dropped 21 cents or 0.32% to $64.77 as of 0119 GMT. U.S. officials and Chinese officials have agreed on a framework for re-establishing their trade truce and resolving China's export limitations on rare earth minerals, magnets and other materials. This was announced by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Tuesday after two days of intensive negotiations in London. Lutnick said that Trump would be informed of the results before giving his approval. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst at IG. He said, "I think that it will remove some downside risks for crude oil. This includes the Chinese economy, and it will stabilize the U.S. economic ship. Both of these should support crude oil demand and price." The oil import data released by China this week, as well as the ongoing production increases of OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, such Russia), have contributed to the decline. OPEC+ will increase its oil production in July by 411,000 barrels a day as it attempts to undo production cuts for the fourth consecutive month. China's Customs data revealed this week that the world's largest oil importer imported 46.60 millions tonnes of crude in May. This is down 3% compared to the previous month. Imports of oil-related products also fell by 12.9%. The Energy Information Administration (the statistical arm of U.S. Department of Energy) will release its weekly report on U.S. crude oil inventories on Wednesday. According to analysts polled, U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to fall by 2,000,000 barrels during the week ending June 6, but distillate and gasoline stocks will likely rise. They estimate a greater decline in crude stock than the American Petroleum Institute. Sources said under condition of anonymity that the API reported Tuesday that crude stock fell by 370,000 barrels in the last week.
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Analysts' reactions to the US-China Trade Agreement
U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that restrictions on magnets and rare earths should be resolved as a result of a framework for trade and implementation plan reached with China in London. Li Chenggang, Vice Minister of Commerce in China, said that the two teams agreed to implement their Geneva consensus. They would then take the framework agreed upon back to their respective leaders. QUOTES: CHRIS WESTON HEAD OF RESEARCH PEPPERSTONE MELBOURNE The devil is in the detail, but the lack reaction indicates that this outcome was fully expected. The Geneva agreement is a good thing, but the fact that there was no reaction on S&P500 Futures and only small movements in CNH and AUD suggests the outcome was expected. Details matter, particularly the amount of rare earths going to the US and the freedom of US chips to go East. But for now, as long as headlines about the talks between the parties are positive, risk assets will be supported. The reaction of Chinese equity markets could be telling, and I suspect US equity Futures will closely track the developments today. CAROL KONG CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BBANK OF AUSTRALIAN, SYDNEY "I believe in this climate...any hints of progress on a possible trade agreement will be beneficial for the markets. Although details are scarce, as long the two parties are in communication, I believe markets will be happy. "It's going to be hard for both sides and take a very long time before they can reach a comprehensive agreement." This type of comprehensive agreement usually takes years to reach, so I am skeptical that the framework agreed upon at the London meeting will be comprehensive. "Tensions may have de-escalated temporarily, but will escalate in the coming months." RAY ATTRILL HEAD OF FOREX STRATEGY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK SYDNEY "The devil will be in the detail of what I call a handshake deal and, more importantly, if this can help to reestablish the trust between President Xi, and President Trump which was clearly broken since the Geneva Agreement has been published. It's too early to declare that a new US-China trading agreement is imminent. "The entire year was littered by positive omens of reaching agreements, but we haven't seen any real progress. Or we've seen a backsliding in things that seemed to be agreed. "Our view remains that, whatever is agreed upon in the next few weeks and months, we will end up with an international tariff situation that is much worse than it was before Trump became president. We'll still have a tariff climate that we believe is detrimental to global growth." TONY SYCAMORE MARKET ANALYST IG SYDNEY If we maintain the terms of the Geneva Agreement we will see US tariffs for Chinese goods remaining at 30% for some time, and Chinese tariffs for US goods remaining at 10%. This is a reduction from 145% and 125%, respectively. This would be amazing. "Now, that was for me probably the consensus of the market...and now, people are just trying to figure out whether or not they're going to buy or sell US dollars and I think that reflects a little bit of this indecision. I thought that Geneva would be extended and it appears we are getting what I expected. This is why the U.S. equity market has held up at this time. They still seem overheated and need to take a step back. We've had a great run, and now we're pushing up against our February record highs. For me, I think it's a good idea for them to take some time off. It hasn't been above or below expectations. It's exactly where I expected we would land, and that's the reason I think there's now a bit of uncertainty in US equity futures."
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Analysts' reactions to the US-China Trade Agreement
U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that restrictions on magnets and rare earths should be resolved as a result of a framework for trade and implementation plan reached with China in London. Li Chenggang, Vice Minister of Commerce in China, said that the two teams agreed to implement their Geneva consensus. They would then take the framework agreed upon back to their respective leaders. QUOTES: CHRIS WESTON HEAD OF RESEARCH PEPPERSTONE MELBOURNE The devil is in the detail, but the lack reaction indicates that this outcome was fully expected. The Geneva agreement is a good thing, but the fact that there was no reaction on S&P500 Futures and only small movements in CNH and AUD suggests the outcome was expected. Details matter, particularly the amount of rare earths going to the US and the freedom of US chips to go East. But for now, as long as headlines about the talks between the parties are positive, risk assets will be supported. The reaction of Chinese equity markets could be telling, and I suspect US equity Futures will closely track the developments today."
Asian stocks gain as US fiscal health and trade deals are in focus
Investors remained concerned about the fiscal outlook for major developed economies, and the lack progress in new trade agreements.
After a CNN report that Israel was planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, the price of crude oil rose by more than $1 per barrel. This raised supply concerns outside of Middle East's key producing region. It also brought geopolitical issues back into focus.
The Japanese bond market is also in the spotlight, after the yields of super-long-term bonds surged to new highs amid concerns about the demand for debt from the country following a disappointing 20-year auction.
Early trading on Wednesday saw the yields on JGBs of 20 years and 30 years rise by 2 basis points while the 30-year JGB yields fell by 1.5 bps.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index grew 0.58%, but China's blue chip index was down in the early trading.
China warned that it would take legal action against anyone or any organisation who helped or implemented U.S. policies that advised companies to avoid using advanced semiconductors made in China.
The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.5% while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.18%.
Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He said, "The markets are looking for new catalysts that will increase risk appetite."
The U.S.'s reversal on trade policy, and the damage-control that was done to fix the mess they created with the Liberation Day Tariffs, signals a commitment to getting this all done. This is what keeps equity valuations strong."
Data released on Wednesday revealed that Japanese exports to the U.S. rose for the seventh consecutive month even though shipments fell. This highlights the potential impact of President Donald Trump's new tariffs on Japan's fragile economic recovery.
Wall Street also felt the effects of fiscal woes. The benchmark S&P500 ended a six-day streak of gains on Tuesday. This was limited by an increase in U.S. Treasury rates, which remained steady during Asian hours on Thursday.
Congress is expected to vote on a tax bill this week that could add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to U.S. government's $36.2 trillion debt, just days after Moody's lowered the country's rating.
Analysts noted that progress on new deals between the U.S.
Officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that rising U.S. tariffs were causing higher prices and urged patience before making interest rate decisions.
Traders are also concerned that U.S. officials may be attempting to weaken the dollar at Group of Seven Finance Minister meetings, which are currently taking place in Canada.
STOXX futures in Europe were stable, while FTSE 100's futures were muted. This was due to the caution that had been set in place ahead of a consumer price inflation report from the United Kingdom, which is expected later today.
The economists polled predicted that the consumer price index would rise by 3.3% from 2.2% in March to 3.3% in April.
The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) fell 0.03%, to 99.938, after a two-day drop of 1.3%. The Japanese yen rose to 144.27 dollars, nearing its highest level in the past two weeks.
The dollar fell on Wednesday, and investors moved to safer assets. Gold spot was up 0.14% to $3,293 an ounce. This is the highest price in over a week. (Reporting and editing by Johann M Cherian in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee)
(source: Reuters)