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Dollar drops, US inflation increases futures, and risk appetite is heightened

Dollar fell, and U.S. Stock Futures rose on February 2, after data showed U.S. Consumer Inflation picked up less in April than expected. This was when President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs which have caused havoc to global markets and supply chains.

On Monday, the U.S. announced that it would suspend its trade war with China for 90 days. It will also reduce reciprocal duties while negotiating a permanent agreement.

The agreement has reignited the appetite of investors for stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Tuesday's inflation numbers have also helped fuel this move.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures consumer prices, rose by 0.2% from March to April. This brings the annual rise from 2.4% to 2.3%.

Economists polled had predicted a rise of 0.3% per month and 2.4% per year.

The dollar continued to lose ground against a basket currency, while the euro rose 0.4% in a single day and reached a high of $1.113.

Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones rose between 0.2-0.3%, suggesting that Wall Street will start the week with a modestly better start. The S&P gained 3.3% after the U.S./China news.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist for Spartan Capital, a New York-based firm.

The report indicates that Fed officials should be cautious, and the stance they've taken for the moment is likely the best course of action.

After the Geneva talks, the U.S. announced it will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%. China also said that it would lower duties on U.S. imported goods from 125% to 10%.

The change in U.S. China trade relations has caused traders to reduce expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions, believing that policymakers will have more flexibility to lower rates as inflation risks decrease.

The traders are now pricing in 56 basis point cuts for this year. This is down from April's forecasts of over 100 basis points, when the fears of Trump's Tariffs were at their highest.

Cardillo stated that "the Fed is on the right track and until there are any real changes in the trade war by June, a rate cut in June remains in doubt."

Economists and fund managers have stated that the 90-day break is welcomed, but it hasn't changed the larger picture.

Christopher Hodge said that the tariffs would still be higher after all was said and done and this will have a negative impact on U.S. economic growth.

The ratings agency Fitch estimates that the U.S. tariff rate has dropped to 13.1% from 22.8% before the agreement, but is still above the 2.3% at the end 2024.

After the inflation figures, U.S. Treasury rates dipped below their one-month highs of Monday. The benchmark 10-year rate was down 1.4 basis point on the day, closing at 4.443%.

Oil rose by 0.9% to $65.48 per barrel, continuing Monday's rally of 1.2% to a 2-week high over $66 a barrel. Gold increased 0.4% to $3.246 per ounce after falling 2% on Sunday.

(source: Reuters)