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As tariffs fuel global growth concerns, shares sway and oil prices fall.

On Wednesday, oil prices and shares were in a state of confusion as the relief from a possible easing of trade tensions around the world was countered by a worsening economy outlook and gloomy signals coming from corporations affected by Donald Trump's new tariffs.

Data earlier that day in China showed that factory activity in April contracted at its fastest rate in 16 months, as U.S. tariffs halted two months' recovery, and fueled calls for Beijing to provide further stimulus.

The impact of the high U.S. import tariffs has caused the index to drop back to its lowest point, COVID-19 disruptions included, since August 2012. This was said by Zichun Hua, an economist for Capital Economics in China.

The sharp fall in PMIs may overstate the impact of tariffs because negative sentiments are at play, but they still suggest that China's economic growth is under pressure due to the cooling external demand.

The CSI300 index rose only 0.07%, a paltry amount. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.2%.

The yuan onshore was not much changed, at $7.2686 per US dollar.

Details are scarce despite Trump's efforts to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, and signs of progress on broader trade talks. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he had made one agreement with a foreign country.

Investors were also concerned about deteriorating U.S. statistics as Trump's tariffs had a ripple effect on businesses and consumers in the United States.

David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, said: "We increase the probability of an extended economic stagnation, which meets the criteria for recession, up to 50%."

The rising likelihood of economic stagnation is due entirely to exogenous factors such as an erratic economic policy, disruptions in public spending, changes in incentives, and a fiscal position that cannot be sustained.

The data released on Tuesday revealed that the U.S. goods trade deficit reached a new record in March, as businesses stocked up ahead of Trump's proposed tariffs. This suggests trade was the main drag on the economy in the first quarter. The first quarter GDP is expected later today.

In April, U.S. consumer sentiment also fell to its lowest level in nearly five years.

Wall Street Futures struggled to maintain gains made overnight during the cash session due to the precarious economic outlook in the United States and globally.

In Asia, Nasdaq Futures declined 0.6% while S&P500 futures dropped 0.5%.

The futures for the EUROSTOXX50 index fell 0.2% while MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.4%.

Nikkei gained 0.2%.

The impact of Trump's trade conflict has been felt in the corporate world. UPS, a delivery giant, announced it would cut 20,000 positions to reduce costs. General Motors, meanwhile, canceled its investor call and lowered its forecasts.

"You see companies... making statements about low transparency, the unwillingness to sign long-term agreements, or to make long-term planning - that is a slippery slope," Fabiana Fedeli said, M&G’s chief investment officer for equities and multi-asset at a Monday media roundtable.

Worries about global economic growth and the impact it has on demand also contributed to the steep decline in oil prices from previous sessions.

Brent crude futures fell 1% to $63.61 per barrel after falling 2.4% overnight. U.S. crude fell 1.16%, to $59.72 a barrel after a 2.6% decline on Tuesday.

DATA DUMP

The release of the core PCE Price Index - the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation - will also be due on Wednesday. This is before the jobs data, which are expected at the end the week.

Payrolls will rise by 130,000, and inflation will ease. However, there is more uncertainty regarding GDP growth with a median forecast of a paltry 0.3% annualised.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 97 basis points in December, up from 80 bps as early as last week.

This has pushed yields in the U.S. down. The two-year Treasury rate is now at its lowest level in three weeks, 3.6400%. The benchmark 10-year rate was last at 4.1580%. This is also its lowest level since early April.

The dollar's performance on the foreign exchange market was set to be its worst since November 2022, with a loss of 4.65%, as Trump's erratic trade policies left the greenback vulnerable.

The yen, a safe-haven currency, was on track for its biggest monthly gain since July 2024, at more than 5%. The euro is also on track for its biggest monthly gain in two years, and bought $1.1369 last.

The Australian dollar last traded 0.27 percent higher at $0.6401.

Data released on Wednesday revealed that core inflation in Australia had slowed down to its lowest level in three years in the first quarter. This supports the argument for another interest rate cut in the coming weeks.

Spot gold dropped 0.4% elsewhere to $3,303.53 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)