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Russell: Imports from Asia in Q1 were lower than expected, indicating a slump in demand for crude oil.

Crude oil prices have fallen in response to President Donald Trump's disruption of global trade.

The shock of Trump's new tariffs masks a weakness that existed in demand, which was reflected in soft imports during the first quarter of the year in Asia, where crude oil is the most popularly purchased region in the world.

According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia imported 26.44 millions barrels of crude per day in the first quarter. This is down from 27.08million bpd in the same period of 2024.

The drop in imports is in contrast to the forecasts of groups like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency, which predict that Asia will be the leading region for global oil demand in 2025.

There is one silver lining to Asia's first-quarter imports. They did show signs that they were recovering in March.

According to LSEG, the region imported 27,39 million bpd during March. This is up from 25,44 million bpd for February, and in line with 27.33 millions bpd of March last year.

China, the largest crude importer in the world, led the recovery with seaborne arrivals at 10,14 million bpd. This was the highest level for three months.

The addition of pipeline imports brings China's total crude oil arrivals to 11,04 million bpd in March, which is higher than the 10.42 millions bpd during the first two months, but below the 11.6million bpd registered for March 2024.

Why did China and the rest of Asia import more crude oil in March 2025 than they did in the first two month of 2025?

Refiners are restocking their inventories following planned maintenance, and before the seasonal increase in demand that occurs as the Northern Hemisphere's winter ends.

Price is the key

The most important factor, however, was probably the price. Most of the cargoes arriving in March were arranged during a period when crude oil prices worldwide were on a downward trend.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, reached a six-month peak of $82.63 per barrel on January 15 before beginning a decline to a low price of $68.33 on March 5.

The trend in lower prices was likely to have prompted refiners, particularly since Chinese refiners may have built up some stocks during the first two months.

According to calculations based off official data, China's refiners have processed about 30,000 barrels of crude per day more than was available in January and February.

China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made by subtracting the amount processed from the total crude available through imports and domestic production.

The dynamics of drawing down inventories will likely reverse in March, as lower crude encourages more purchasing.

Oil markets are wondering if the higher imports seen in Asia in March will continue, given that crude oil prices have rallied since their low in early March until April 2, when Trump announced his global tariff war.

Brent reached $75.47 per barrel on April 2. However, even if Asian buyers were easing up on purchases, the impact will be seen in imports only in May and/or June.

Will the drop in oil prices since last week lead to higher imports from Asia starting in June?

Brent fell to $63.01 per barrel during early Asian trade on Monday. This is the lowest price in over four years. It has also lost 16.5% from its high, before Trump announced blanket tariffs against virtually all countries, except Russia.

The sharp fall in oil prices was also a result of the OPEC+ exporters' decision to increase production by a greater than expected 411,000 bpd during May.

The main concern is the impact that tariffs will have on the global economy and, therefore, fuel consumption.

Even a sharply reduced price may not be sufficient to increase Asian demand for crude oil in the coming months.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)