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As U.S. data and tariff risks weigh, stocks edge up while yields drop

As U.S. data and tariff risks weigh, stocks edge up while yields drop

The benchmark index of global stocks rose Friday, while U.S. Treasury Yields fell. A round of weak U.S. economic data and the recent tariff announcements raised hope that the Federal Reserve might have the cushion it needs to be more aggressive about cutting interest rates.

Commerce Department stated

retail sales dropped

After an upwardly-revised 0.7% increase in Decembre, 0.9% was the largest decrease since March 2023. This is well below the 0.1% decline estimated by economists polled, which suggests that rising prices and tariff uncertainties may have led consumers to reduce spending.

The Federal Reserve also reported that factory output was up.

output dipped

After a rebound of 0.5% in December that was downwardly reviewed, the 0.1% figure for last month fell short. A sharp decline in motor vehicle production weighed.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald

Trump directed

His economic team was tasked with creating plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imported goods, increasing the risk of global trade wars. However, he did not impose another round of tariffs.

Investors were eagerly awaiting the latest updates from the Munich Security Conference where U.S. Vice-President JD

Vance accused

Vance will also meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later in the day.

It's all about Trump now. The rest is noise. Everyone is interested in what Trump will do next and where his tariff wars are headed. Dennis Dick, a Canadian trader with Triple D Trading, said: "Everyone is focused on what Trump will do next and where his tariff wars are going.

The S&P 500 index was essentially unchanged on Wall Street. Energy led the sector gains, while healthcare was the worst performer. The benchmark S&P 500 Index at one point rose to 0.1% above its intraday record of 6128.18, set on January 24,

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 102.83, or 0.2%, to 44.609.64. The S&P 500 rose by 3.39, or 0.5%, at 6,118.43. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 55.15, or 0.2%, at 20,000.17.

According to CME, the expectation of a Federal Reserve cut of at least 25, basis points in June has risen to 51.3% after the markets had priced in a change by 40.3% in the previous session.

FedWatch Tool

MSCI's global stock index rose by 2.17 points or 0.2% to 884.52 after settling at a new intraday high of 885.66. The index is on track to post its fourth weekly increase in five weeks.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.24%, but managed to achieve its eighth week of gains. This is its longest streak since a year. Since the beginning of the year, European stocks have performed better than their U.S. equivalents. However, it is still unclear whether this trend will continue.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) fell by 0.35%, to 106.72, after having fallen to a 2-month low of only 106.56. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.32% to $1.0497.

The dollar fell 0.639% against the Japanese yen to 152.2, while the pound rose 0.21% at $1.2592.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes fell by 5.3 basis points, to 4.472%. However, it was still on course for a weekly increase after falling two weeks in a row.

Oil prices

The market was on course to end a three-week decline streak, erasing previous gains.

U.S. crude settled down to $70.74 per barrel down by 0.77% and Brent settled down to $74.74 per barrel down by 0.37% for the day.

(source: Reuters)