Latest News
-
India's palm oil imports in November are up as prices fall.
India's palm-oil imports increased in November, as refiners took advantage lower prices to increase purchases of the tropical oil, while reducing imports soyoil and sunflower oil. India's increased palm oil imports could be a boon to top producers Indonesia, Malaysia, and the United States, as they would help them reduce their stocks and boost benchmark Malaysian palm futures. Solvent Extractors' Association of India reported that palm oil imports rose 5% in November compared to October, reaching 632,341 metric tonnes. Imports of sunflower oil fell by 45% and soyoil imports dropped more than 18%, to a 2-year low. India imported 5,000 tonnes of canola oil in the same month from the United Arab Emirates. The SEA reported that the lower imports in November of sunflower and soyoil reduced India's total edible oil imports by 13.3% compared to a month before, reaching a low of 1,15 million tons. In November, India imported a record number of tonnes of soyoil, totaling 69,919, from China. A glut in supply led to discounts offered by Chinese crushers compared with South American suppliers. India imports mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as soyoil, sunflower oil, and other oils from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. A Mumbai-based trader with a global trading house said that palm oil was now $100 cheaper per tonne than soyoil. It is also nearly $200 cheaper for sunflower oil. This has prompted Indian buyers to increase their palm oil purchases in December and January. He said that some buyers had cancelled their soyoil contracts for the months of December and January, and were replacing them with palm oil. Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav in Bengaluru and Sherin Liz Varghese; editing by Tom Hogue
-
Nigeria's richest Dangote intensifies oil battle with regulator and seeks corruption investigation
Aliko Dangote, Nigeria's richest person, escalated his battle with regulators Sunday. He accused them of allowing cheap fuel imports that threaten local refineries. Dangote's refinery is meant to change that. Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, relies heavily on imports. Dangote said that if imports are not checked, they could threaten energy security, jobs and investment. Speaking at his 650,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Lagos, Dangote said imports were being used "to checkmate domestic potential", creating jobs abroad while Nigeria struggles to industrialise. He told reporters that "you don't use imported goods to curb domestic potential." Dangote has called for an investigation into Farouk Ahmad, the head of Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. He cited concerns about his management of the industry and allegations that private expenditures exceeded legitimate earnings. Ahmed didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. However, he previously stated that Dangote refinery wanted a monopoly on the sale of petroleum products, but its output could not meet local demands. The regulator asked the president to abandon plans to ban the importation of refined petroleum products last?month because the local production cannot meet the demand of 55 millions litres per day. Dangote contests this and says that the regulator is distorting refinery capacity by reporting offtake stats instead of true production data. The refinery was designed to reduce Nigeria's dependence on imported fuels and save billions of dollars in foreign currency. However, it says that it has not been able to obtain all the crude it requires because the regulator "has failed to implement" a rule which guarantees crude supply to the local refiners prior to exports. Dangote said the refinery imports about 100 million barrels per year of crude oil -- a number that is expected to double following the expansion of the'refinery and the limited domestic supply. Dangote has vowed to continue expansion plans and protect his investment, saying it is "too large to fail". He also reiterated plans to list his company on the local market and pay out dividends in U.S. Dollars so that "every Nigerian could own a part of the economy." Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, is dependent on imported fuel due to the state refineries that have been abandoned. Reporting by Isaac Anyaogu, Editing by Michael Perry
-
Oil prices rise as Venezuelan supply disruptions overshadow surplus concerns
Prices of oil rose on Monday, as disruptions in supply linked to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela outweighed concerns about oversupply and the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine "peace" deal. Brent crude futures rose 33 cents or 0.54% to $61.45 per barrel as of 0429 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 31 cents or 0.54% at $57.75 per barrel. The expectation of a surplus for 2026 weighed on both contracts, which fell more than 4% the previous week. Tsuyoshi Ueno is a senior economist with the NLI Research Institute. He said that tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. have escalated, raising fears about possible supply disruptions. "Although markets lack direction, concerns about oversupply remain high. If geopolitical risk escalates sharply, WTI may fall below $55 by early next year." According to documents, shipping data and maritime sources, Venezuela's oil exports have dropped sharply after the United States seize a tanker last week. The United States also imposed new sanctions on shipping firms and vessels that do business with the Latin American oil producer. Market participants are closely watching developments and their impact on the oil supply. Reports indicate that the U.S. is planning to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan crude oil after this week's seizure of tankers, increasing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro. Prices were impacted by the rising expectations of an excess. JPMorgan Commodities Research stated in a Saturday note that oil surpluses are expected to grow further in 2026 and 2027 as the global oil supply will outpace the demand. The oil supply is predicted to expand at a rate three times faster than?demand growth up to 2026. On Sunday, during a five-hour meeting with U.S. ambassadors in Berlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered that his country would no longer seek to join NATO. The negotiations are expected to continue on Monday. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to China, said that "a lot of work has been done," but he did not provide any additional details. Ukraine's military announced on Friday it had attacked a major Russian refinery located in Yaroslavl to the northeast of Moscow. Industry sources confirmed that production at the facility was suspended. Calculations showed that the Russian state's oil and gas revenues in December are likely to drop by almost half from a year ago to 410 billion Russian roubles (5.12 billion dollars) because of lower crude prices. The West has sanctioned the Russian oil industry, but a possible peace deal could increase its supply. Baker Hughes, an energy services company, said that on the supply side U.S. firms cut back the number of operating oil and gas rigs for the second time in the last three weeks.
-
Dalian iron ore reaches five-month low after China announces plans to regulate exports of steel
The prices of Dalian iron-ore fell Monday, hitting their lowest level for more than five months. This was due to China's plans to introduce a licence system to regulate steel exports from 2026. Iron ore, the most traded contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), closed morning trade with a 1.5% decline to 754 yuan (106.95 dollars) per metric ton. It reached its lowest level at 748 Yuan, since July 10, earlier in the day. By?0330 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.76% to $100.2 per ton. The contract hit a low intraday of $100.4, which was close to the Friday low?of $100.25, and is the lowest level since July 17. China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that?some steel product would be added to its list of cargoes covered by?export licenses from January 1, 2026. This is because robust shipments are fueling a protectionist backlash around the world. China's soaring steel exports helped offset the slump in domestic demand for steel caused by the prolonged downturn on the property market, thereby supporting the prices of this key ingredient. China's crude output of steel in November dropped 3% from October, pointing to six consecutive months of declines. This was due to thinner margins and declining domestic demand. Analysts at Xinhu Futures stated that the downward potential for iron ore prices is limited because mills will start restocking their feedstocks to sustain operations during the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in February. The Chinese Lunar New Year in 2026 will be celebrated from February 15 to 23. Following a Friday slump, coke and other steelmaking materials rose by 4.04 % and 1.13 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar gained 0.42%. Hot-rolled coils advanced 0.22%. Wire rod declined 0.86%. Stainless steel fell 0.08%. ($1 = 7,0499 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
-
Silver steadies; gold rises on weaker dollar and yields, as markets watch US jobs data
Investors waited for key U.S. job data to get clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy, and gold extended its gains. Silver, meanwhile, remained steady after a record-breaking week. Gold spot rose 0.4%, to $4320.65 per ounce at 0319 GMT. Bullion is up about 64% this year. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.6% to $4354.00 per ounce. Dollar hovered around a two-month high, which made bullion attractive to overseas buyers. Meanwhile, yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds edged down. "Gold will likely remain in high demand into the U.S. Non-farm payrolls as evidence of labour-market slack will keep front-end rates capped, and the dollar weak. The markets remain focused on the Fed’s policy outlook following a 25-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Central Bank last week in a split decision. This was a rare decision and signaled a possible pause, as inflation remains high and the employment outlook is uncertain. Two Fed officials dissented, saying inflation was too high to justify a looser policy. Investors currently expect two rate cuts in 2019. This week's U.S. employment report is seen as an important test for these expectations. Gold and other non-yielding investments benefit from a low interest rate environment. ANZ stated in a 'note' that India’s decision to allow pension funds to invest in ETFs of gold and silver could increase institutional participation. We believe that such regulations can increase investor confidence and support higher allocations in portfolios. Silver spot rose by 0.8%, to $62.48 an?ounce. It reached a record-high of $64.65 before closing sharply lower. ANZ warned of downside risks to silver. They cited a possible U.S. exemption from tariffs and stretched valuations compared to gold?that might trigger fund rotation. Silver prices are up 115% in one year due to tighter inventories, increased industrial demand and the inclusion of silver on the U.S. Critical Minerals List. Palladium gained 0.1% per ounce to $1,502.29, while spot platinum fell 0.2% at $1,741.82. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Rashmi aich and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese from Bengaluru)
-
Shanghai copper falls from record highs as weak China data raises concerns about demand
Shanghai copper prices fell on Monday, after hitting a record in the previous session. This was due to renewed demand concerns triggered by an array of 'weak' data in China, which is a major consumer. As of 0228 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.49%, to 92180 yuan per metric tonne ($13,068.87). The price of copper reached a record-high?of 94.570 yuan last Friday. The red metal widely used in power plants, construction and manufacturing has seen its largest daily drop since December 9. China's growth in?factory production and retail sales slowed down further in November due to weak domestic demand. China's real estate investment and sales by floor area have also declined. China?Vanke reported in a Hong Kong Stock Exchange document on Monday that the company had failed to obtain bondholder approval for a one-year delay of a bond payment which was due the same day. This raised concerns about a?potential default. The Shanghai Futures Exchange also monitors the inventory of warehouses to determine whether they are increasing. . The benchmark?three-month?copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.35% to $11,671 a metric tonne. After reaching its highest level ever on Friday, it fell more than 3%. SHFE aluminium fell 1.49%. Nickel lost?1.09%. Lead eased 0.26%. Tin dropped 1.88%. Zinc fell 0.79%. Aluminium, nickel, and tin were all little changed. Lead advanced by 0.15%. Zinc rose by 1.06%.
-
Key data: Stocks fall ahead of central bank decision
Investors reined-in risk-taking as they began a week that would be peppered with important central bank decisions and data release. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1%. This was largely due to a fall of up to 2.7% on South Korean shares. South Korea is one of the best-performing markets in the world this year. Chris Weston said, "We are now in the last week of trading before many close their books for 2025 and call it an end of year," said Chris Weston. He is head of research at Pepperstone Group based in Melbourne. "Some may have already done this," he said. Prices will drop by a significant amount next week. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% while yields on U.S. Treasury bonds fell 1.2 basis points to 4.182%. Investors waited for a series of economic data releases as well as a number of central bank decisions. The Bank of England could make a similar cut of 3.75%. Along with Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's Norges Bank, the European Central Bank will 'keep interest rates on pause'. Investors can also catch up with economic data that was delayed due to the U.S. shutdown. This includes the November jobs report and the consumer price index. The U.S. Dollar was stable at 7,0532 yuan against the Chinese Yuan trading offshore. This is its highest level in over a year. Factory output and retail sales numbers for November showed a further slowdown. Official data released on Monday showed that the price of new homes continued to decline in November. This indicates that the recovery in the demand for housing is still elusive, despite government promises to stabilize the sector. China Vanke announced that it would convene another bondholder meeting after the state-backed developer failed to secure bondholder approval for a one-year extension of a bond payment due on Monday. This increased the risk of default, and renewed concerns about the property crisis-hit sector. Jeff Zhang, Morningstar's equity analyst, said that if Vanke defaults in the end, the impact on the China real estate sector could be significant. Investors are more worried about the government's attitude to bailouts, even for'safe' names. Stocks in Japan fell, despite a boost from the BOJ's "tankan", a closely-watched survey, which showed that the business sentiment of big manufacturers reached a four year high on Monday, indicating the economy is weathering the blow caused by higher tariffs. tariffs. Last week, the Nikkei was down 1.4%. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $61.46 on supply concerns sparked by tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Imperial Oil announced on Sunday that it had issued an alert for a fire at its 120,000 barrels per day refinery in Ontario, Canada. Russia, meanwhile, said that a refinery in Afipsky had not been damaged by an Ukrainian drone attack. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to Berlin said that "a lot of progress has been made" on the geopolitical side in the peace talks in Berlin for the end of the Ukraine conflict. Gold has extended its recent rally for a fifth consecutive day, as it nears a record-high of $4381.21. The spot bullion price was last up 0.5%, at $4325.51. The cryptocurrency markets ended a three-day losing spree, with bitcoin ending the day up 1.2% to $89,517.01 while ether rose 1.1% to 3,116.42. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
-
China's crude steel production in November is at a 23-month high
China's crude output of steel in November dropped 3% from the previous month, and is now on track for six consecutive months of declines. This has been curbed by thinner margins, as well as a waning domestic market. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the 'world's biggest?steel manufacturer manufactured 69.87 millions metric tons of raw steel in December, the lowest monthly total since December 2023. The data revealed that this was down from 72 million tonnes in October, and 10.9% from the same period last year. According to calculations based on data, the November volume equates to an average daily production of 2.33 million tonne, compared to 2.32 million tonne in October, and 2.61 millions tonne in November 2024. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that around 35% of steelmakers had made a profit at the end of November. This was down from 45% late in October. China's factory activity declined for the eighth consecutive month in November. This highlights manufacturers' struggles to sustain a recovery as a U.S./China trade war has increased pressure on businesses. Manufacturers have collectively become China's biggest steel consumer, replacing depressed property developers. In the first 11 months of 2025 production totaled 891.67 millions?tons. This is 4% less than a year ago. Cai Yongzheng is a Nanjing based director at the Jiangsu Fushi Data Research Institute. He said that China's total annual crude steel production?will fall between 950 millions and 960 millions tons. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
Worldwide seaborne iron ore had an excellent 2024, however it's all China: Russell
The world's. imports of seaborne iron ore rose a modest 3.6% to a record high. in 2024, but the increase was practically completely driven by China,. the world's biggest purchaser of the essential steel basic material.
Worldwide seaborne imports of iron ore were 1.707 billion. metric lots in 2024, up 60 million lots from the 1.647 billion. in 2023, according to data assembled by product experts Kpler.
But of that 60 million heap boost, 59.1 million lots were. accounted for by China, as its seaborne imports increased 4.9% to. 1.274 billion heaps.
This suggests China's seaborne imports of iron ore will be at a. record high in 2024, a reality that looks somewhat incongruous with. the likely decrease in steel production.
Authorities data showed that crude steel output in the very first 11. months of 2024 was 929.19 million lots, down 2.7% from the exact same. duration in 2023.
Considered that December is likely to have actually been a soft month for. steel production offered winter season shutdowns and lower seasonal. demand, it's likely that full-year output will drop in 2024 from. 2023.
Nonetheless, China's steel production will can be found in around. the 1 billion heap level for 2024, marking the sixth straight. year it has actually been around this volume.
With China's steel output successfully flatlining since 2019,. the concern for the market is why iron ore imports gained in. 2024.
There is likely some aspect of replacing lower-quality. domestic production, however the main motorists are probably the lower. rate trend over the year and the restoring of inventories.
COST PATTERN
The price of iron ore contracts traded on the Singapore. Exchange had their 2024 peak extremely early in the year,. striking $143.60 a ton on Jan. 3.
They then declined to a low of $91.10 a heap by Sept. 10,. before recuperating to end the year at $103.61.
However the 28% drop over the year was most likely enough to prompt. Chinese steel mills and traders to increase purchases,. particularly in the second half of the year when rates were lower. than in the very first half.
The price has had a soft start to 2025, dropping to $97.36 a. ton on Wednesday.
This decline is more belief driven, provided worries about. the trade policies of the incoming U.S. administration under. President-elect Donald Trump, with the threat of tariffs of up. to 60% hanging over steel-intensive markets such as. production.
China has actually also been rebuilding inventories, with port. stockpiles kept an eye on by consultants SteelHome << SH-TOT-IRONINV >. ending in 2015 at 146.85 million loads, up from 114.5 million. at the end of 2023.
That gain of 32.4 million heaps is somewhat majority of. the total increase in seaborne imports, underscoring the. significance of inventory building to China's iron ore demand in. 2024.
The outlook for China's iron ore and steel sectors is. clouded by unpredictability over what actual policies the new Trump. administration will carry out, and how China and other impacted. nations will respond.
Like other product markets, iron ore is largely in a. wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump's go back to workplace on Jan. 20.
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST
The same unpredictabilities will also weigh on iron ore demand. outside China, but there are some established trends that are. likely to continue.
Demand in the industrialized countries of Europe is most likely to. continue to soften, after 2024 imports dropped to 85.12 million. heaps from 88.40 million in 2023, with much of the decrease. concentrated in the United Kingdom.
Japan, the world's second-biggest importer, also saw a. decline with 2024 seaborne arrivals can be found in at 88.19 million. loads, down from 98.71 million the previous year.
Offsetting the lower imports in Europe and Japan were. boosts in smaller sized buyers, specifically those in the Middle East. and North Africa.
Overall, while the structure of seaborne iron need. ex-China is moving, it's most likely that the volumes will remain. basically stable, with the caveat of Trump's policies having. only a moderate effect on worldwide growth.
The views expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .
(source: Reuters)