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Worldwide seaborne iron ore had an excellent 2024, however it's all China: Russell

The world's. imports of seaborne iron ore rose a modest 3.6% to a record high. in 2024, but the increase was practically completely driven by China,. the world's biggest purchaser of the essential steel basic material.

Worldwide seaborne imports of iron ore were 1.707 billion. metric lots in 2024, up 60 million lots from the 1.647 billion. in 2023, according to data assembled by product experts Kpler.

But of that 60 million heap boost, 59.1 million lots were. accounted for by China, as its seaborne imports increased 4.9% to. 1.274 billion heaps.

This suggests China's seaborne imports of iron ore will be at a. record high in 2024, a reality that looks somewhat incongruous with. the likely decrease in steel production.

Authorities data showed that crude steel output in the very first 11. months of 2024 was 929.19 million lots, down 2.7% from the exact same. duration in 2023.

Considered that December is likely to have actually been a soft month for. steel production offered winter season shutdowns and lower seasonal. demand, it's likely that full-year output will drop in 2024 from. 2023.

Nonetheless, China's steel production will can be found in around. the 1 billion heap level for 2024, marking the sixth straight. year it has actually been around this volume.

With China's steel output successfully flatlining since 2019,. the concern for the market is why iron ore imports gained in. 2024.

There is likely some aspect of replacing lower-quality. domestic production, however the main motorists are probably the lower. rate trend over the year and the restoring of inventories.

COST PATTERN

The price of iron ore contracts traded on the Singapore. Exchange had their 2024 peak extremely early in the year,. striking $143.60 a ton on Jan. 3.

They then declined to a low of $91.10 a heap by Sept. 10,. before recuperating to end the year at $103.61.

However the 28% drop over the year was most likely enough to prompt. Chinese steel mills and traders to increase purchases,. particularly in the second half of the year when rates were lower. than in the very first half.

The price has had a soft start to 2025, dropping to $97.36 a. ton on Wednesday.

This decline is more belief driven, provided worries about. the trade policies of the incoming U.S. administration under. President-elect Donald Trump, with the threat of tariffs of up. to 60% hanging over steel-intensive markets such as. production.

China has actually also been rebuilding inventories, with port. stockpiles kept an eye on by consultants SteelHome << SH-TOT-IRONINV >. ending in 2015 at 146.85 million loads, up from 114.5 million. at the end of 2023.

That gain of 32.4 million heaps is somewhat majority of. the total increase in seaborne imports, underscoring the. significance of inventory building to China's iron ore demand in. 2024.

The outlook for China's iron ore and steel sectors is. clouded by unpredictability over what actual policies the new Trump. administration will carry out, and how China and other impacted. nations will respond.

Like other product markets, iron ore is largely in a. wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump's go back to workplace on Jan. 20.

EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST

The same unpredictabilities will also weigh on iron ore demand. outside China, but there are some established trends that are. likely to continue.

Demand in the industrialized countries of Europe is most likely to. continue to soften, after 2024 imports dropped to 85.12 million. heaps from 88.40 million in 2023, with much of the decrease. concentrated in the United Kingdom.

Japan, the world's second-biggest importer, also saw a. decline with 2024 seaborne arrivals can be found in at 88.19 million. loads, down from 98.71 million the previous year.

Offsetting the lower imports in Europe and Japan were. boosts in smaller sized buyers, specifically those in the Middle East. and North Africa.

Overall, while the structure of seaborne iron need. ex-China is moving, it's most likely that the volumes will remain. basically stable, with the caveat of Trump's policies having. only a moderate effect on worldwide growth.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)