Latest News

MORNING BID EUROPE-Markets shift to holiday mood

A take a look at the day ahead in European and worldwide markets from Wayne Cole

It's been a blessedly quiet start to the week in Asia with Japan taking a much-needed vacation for Mountain Day, after the Nikkei toppled down a mountain of its own recently and sent out international markets reeling.

If Tokyo were open, futures suggest the Nikkei would be trading 400 approximately points higher but still not back to where it was before last Monday's record plunge.

Many other Asian stock markets are firmer, led by a 2% dive in Taiwan, while Wall Street futures are flat.

The dollar was dithering around 147.00 yen, with the deciphering of the yen carry trade apparently over in the meantime. IMM information out last week revealed net brief USDJPY positions now at 11,354, down from 184,000 in early July.

Treasury futures are likewise little changed while Fed fund futures indicate a 49% opportunity of a half-point rate cut in September, after touching 100% at one point a week back.

Fed authorities have effectively pushed back on chatter of an inter-meeting cut, with Fed Guv Michelle Bowman keeping in mind on the weekend that inflation was still annoyingly above target. She did soften her generally hawkish tone enough to yield that rates will require to fall gradually if inflation continues to sluggish.

Markets will know more about that when U.S consumer price information is released on Wednesday, with forecasts tipping yearly core inflation to fall a tick to 3.2%, the lowest given that April 2021. An even lower number would have pundits again cautioning the Fed lagged the curve on cutting.

Keep in mind: July retail sales on Thursday could surprise on the high side given the median forecast is +0.3% however the range is 0.0% to +0.9%. Arise from Walmart and Home Depot today will use more colour on the state of demand. Weekly unemployed claims could also move markets more than normal given the unexpectedly sharp fall reported last week.

In geopolitics, the Middle East stays a tinder box with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant informing U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran was preparing for a. large-scale attack on Israel.

The Pentagon made the unusual choice to openly report that. Austin had actually purchased the release of a nuclear-powered directed. missile submarine to the Middle East. The Pentagon added that. Austin had actually also bought the Abraham Lincoln strike group to. accelerate its release to the region.

Secret advancements that could influence markets on Monday:

- German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, RWE Chief. Executive Markus Krebber speak

(source: Reuters)