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Key data: Shares stabilize ahead of major central bank decisions

European shares rose on Monday, as Wall Street futures indicated a recovery after last week's selling. However, investor caution capped gains ahead of a busy week that will include important central bank decisions and economic reports.

The benchmark STOXX Index of 600 large companies in Europe gained 0.6%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% after U.S. shares had fallen on Friday due to concerns over a bubble in?Artificial Intelligence stocks and lingering inflation.

Asia shares have been less buoyant due to renewed concerns in China's real estate market. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1.2%. This was led by a fall of up to 2.7% on South Korean shares. South Korea is one of the best-performing markets in the world this year.

Marc Velan is the head of investments for Lucerne Asset Management, a Singapore-based asset management firm. He said that "the risk-off tone in Asia appears to be more a spillover effect from last Friday's sale in U.S. tech and momentum than a regional catalyst."

The unwinding of the AI-capex trade affected global risk appetite. And in the 'thinnest year-end liquidity, these moves tend to spread quickly across regions.

Investors waited for a series of economic data releases and central bank decisions. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was down 3 basis points to 4.1645%.

CHINA PROPERTY WORRIES

The U.S. Dollar fell 0.1% against the Chinese Yuan trading offshore to 7.0486, which is its highest level in over a year. Factory?output data and retail sales figures for November showed a further slowdown.

Official data released on Monday showed that the price of new homes continued to decline in November. This indicates that the recovery in the demand for housing is still elusive, despite government promises to stabilize the sector.

China Vanke announced that it would convene a second meeting of bondholders after the state-backed developer failed to get bondholder approval for an extension by one year to a bond payment due on Monday. This increased the risk?of default, and renewed concerns about the crisis?hit property?sector.

Jeff Zhang, Morningstar's equity analyst, said: "If Vanke defaults in the end, we believe the ramifications for the China property industry can be significant." Investors are more likely to be concerned with the balance sheet, and the government's attitude toward bailouts for even'safe' names.

CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL BANK LOOM DECISIONS

The Bank of Japan, among the central banks that will make decisions this week is expected to increase rates by 25 basis point to 0.75%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England could cut rates to 3.75%.

Along with Sweden's Riksbank, Norway's Norges Bank and the European Central Bank, it is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Investors can also catch up with economic data delayed by the U.S. The government shutdown has delayed the release of the November jobs report and the consumer price index.

Ben Bennett, Hong Kong-based head of investment strategy Asia for L&G Asset Management, said: "It is worth treating this week's statistics with a grain of salt due to the difficulties in collecting data and the direct impact of the shutdown on the economy."

We'll need to wait until the year 2026 before we can get a better idea of how the U.S. economy is doing." economy."

Stocks in Japan gained support on Monday after the BOJ released its closely-watched "tankan", or business survey, which showed that the big manufacturers' sentiment had reached a four year high. This indicated the economy could be weathering the impact of higher U.S. Tariffs.

The Topix rose 0.2% last, and the yen gained 0.6%, to 154.955 versus the U.S. Dollar, which is nearing its highest level in a week.

The kiwi fell 0.4% to $0.5781 following comments by New Zealand's central bank governor Anna Breman, who warned that financial market conditions have?tightened over the past few weeks. This has led investors to reduce their expectations of rate hikes for next year.

Brent crude rose 0.5% to $61.44 on supply concerns from the U.S. Venezuela tensions, among other factors.

Imperial Oil announced on Sunday that it had issued an?fire alarm at its 120,000 barrel per day refinery facility in Ontario. Russia, meanwhile, said that a refinery in Afipsky had not been damaged by an attack from a Ukrainian drone.

Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to Berlin said that "a lot of progress has been made" on the geopolitical side in the peace talks in Berlin for the end of the Ukraine conflict.

Gold has extended its recent rally for a fifth consecutive day, as it nears a record-high of $4381.21. Last week, spot bullion prices rose 1.1% to $4,348.83.

The cryptocurrency markets ended a three-day loss streak. Bitcoin was up 1.5% to $89,845 while ether rose 2% to $3145. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam; Sam Holmes, Louise Heavens and Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)